Kingmaker II-Game Over

[Yosarian2]

...the king's requests? (goes and looks)

[Yosarian2]

Ah, he wants me to analyze Fritzer and VitimanR. Ok.

Well, I think I've already said quite a bit about VitimanR. Phoebus was always one of my top suspect. I like his replacement VitimanR a bit better, with his activity and his analysis, but he's still probably in the "more scummy then average" catagory; I really didn't like his most recent post in defense of DR, where he seemed to claim that being a lurker king and hurting the town badly in the process somehow isn't a scumtell.

I'll do an analysis of Fritzer in a bit.

[Yosarian2]

Eh...I can never tell if Fritzer is scum or not.

He's done very little this game, even by his standards. 90% of his posts are basically totally contentless, and the rest don't say very much.

He was in favor of killing Ollo/the admerial for quite a while now. He liked the mnowax 1 lynched, and he wants to do it again. He has wanted to kill MOS for much of the game.

That's really about all I get out of his posts. I donno. I'm not going to vote him for playing the way he always plays, but I'm not exactally getting a lot of pro-town vibes either. Many of the people he's suspected for much of the game are still alive, except for CTD/Mnowax I. I will say that he's been fairly consistant about most of his suspicions, but that's about all I can say about him.

[Mastermind of Sin]

VitaminR's defense of Dead Rikimaru/replacements doesn't sit well with me, either. His argument is basically "Protown people do this, too, so you can't think he's scum for doing this." The problem is, there is always going to be at least one instance of where something scum would do has been done by a protown person. That doesn't change the fact that doing so is detrimental to the town and scummy in general. Nothing outside of cop investigations and the like is ever concrete in this game, so scummy actions is the best we have to go on. When a bunch of scummy actions are done by one person, we conclude that they could be scum. You can't say "oh, this person has done a crapload of scummy actions, but individually, each of these actions are something that a protown person might do, too, so this person clearly isn't scum." Making such an argument takes out every possible way to find scum outside of power roles, and that makes the game rather boring as well. Just because a protown person might do something doesn't mean that they are motivated to do so in the interests of the town. A protown person has no incentive to be lazy, inactive, or self-serving. It is not in the interest of the town for a protown person to do any of these things. Therefore, you can't just forgive someone for doing this just because a protown person might do it. If you do, you give scum places to hide and arguments to push suspicion off themselves. If all scum start being lazy, inactive, and self-serving, what's the tell them apart from the protown people that are being lazy, inactive, and self-serving? Giving them a free pass isn't going to help us at all.

[Thesp]

Zindie's long weekend off is being taken away by other occurences. I have been following the game (though I haven't taken the time yet to read the whole MoS-Thesp debate).

I'll execute someone when I feel the game isn't advancing anymore.

Get a LoE up. Now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ok. Fritzler. He's been wrong most of the game, calling mnowax/ctd scum and pooky town early in the game. Could be scum.

VitaminR, not playing a good game, but probably town, my gut says.

[ThAdmiral]

Sorry I've had uni stuff lately. I'm still yet to do the kings request.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Zindie's long weekend off is being taken away by other occurences. I have been following the game (though I haven't taken the time yet to read the whole MoS-Thesp debate).

I'll execute someone when I feel the game isn't advancing anymore.

Get a LoE up. Now.

Agreed.

[Lowell]

King, your people are revolting.

[Lowell]

....

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's not really a revolt. We don't have any real means of pressuring him. We're just making vague threats.

[Zindaras]

Current LoE: voidybuns, VitaminR, Fritzler

.

Fritzler because I hate his lurking at the time and that whole CTD-thing. He's a bit of an oddball choice, especially because there are many other lurkers, but I think he's a possibility we should seriously consider. The more the game is going on, the better I'm feeling about a Vitty-execution. Voidybuns has also already been outlined.

[Yosarian2]

(nods) Not a bad LOE. VitimanR and Fritzer are both reasonable lynches, I suppose.

Any reason Mnowax II's not on your list?

[Zindaras]

Post 2203 made me feel it would be better to execute Riki after Vitty (if he's scum), if there is a link between the two of them. I guess it is a bit of an oversight, though.

*scratches head*

I'll think about adding him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're supposed to think about your LoE, Zindaras. You're undermining your own authority here, dude.

[Zindaras]

I do think, I just listed my three main suspects right now. Besides, my authority lies in my ability to maul people.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd like to hear VitaminR's response to the various responses to his defense of DR/mnowax2. I think Fritzler is the best choice for execution of the LoE players, although perhaps not the most informative lynch, since most people are refusing to comment on him, from what I can tell. VitaminR is probably the most informative lynch, but I think he's the least likely to be scum out of the three. Voidybuns is somewhere in between, a balance of informativity and scumminess.

[spectrumvoid]

*goes to look at Fritz*

[VitaminR]

You certainly like to throw around the word "fallacy" a lot. A fallacy is drawing a conclusion which cannot be drawn from a set of premises. An informal fallacy often addresses something other than the actual argument being made (such as attacking the person [ad hominem], appealing to authority, etc).

I use the word fallacy a lot because I think a lot of your arguments fall under the same header (poor contribution = scummy). I know what a fallacy is.

Every scumtell is based purely on inductive reasoning. There is no sure-fire scumtell - but there are tells which make people more likely to be town, and more likely to be scum. People are also not going to agree that the same thing is a scumtell. What you are calling fallacies are not fallacies. I'll address each "fallacy" in turn.

Perhaps in the sense that no scumtell can truly be a fallacy, but it really does not logically follow that inactivity and laziness are scummy

unless

you assume that scum is more likely to exhibit that kind of behaviour. It is that claim which I would dispute and I don't think it's anywhere strong enough to hang your suspicions on to this extent.

1.) "Laziness = Scumminess fallacy". My post explicitly mentions how DR simply *faints* about there being 39 pages and leaving it at that. He makes one of his few appearances to the thread, and the best contribution he has is to faint. We call that active lurking. That is lazy

at best

or scummy

at worst

. It certainly doesn't

make

him scum, but it does increase the chances, so far as I'm concerned.

Addressed above.

2.) "Inactivity = Scumminess fallacy". Here I don't even believe you are fairly addressing my post. My point was that

as King

, he continually talked about "having a plan" and yet did not act on it. This looks like a prime example of stalling to me. I can accept that people at times cannot post as much as they would like, but he has no excuse for only coming by to say "I have a plan" and saying nothing of his suspicions.

Call it stalling = scumminess then. I still disagree.

3.) If somebody is a scumKing and

resistant

to executing lurkers, chances are at least one scum is going to turn out to be a lurker. If you want to dispute this one, be my guest, but I don't agree with you and I doubt many others would either.

And I actually think that is a fairly

small

conclusion, not a "large" conclusion. Saying at least 1 of 6 people are probably scum isn't exactly drastic.

Anything concerning alignment is a big conclusion, I feel. I don't dispute your first point. I just don't think that the chance is necessarily all that high. Executing a lurker could be equally undesirable because it puts a king in the spotlight more than a well-supported execution.

No,

no,

no

. When you are King, and entrusted with a day's execution, I don't give a flying flip if you "want to stay in the shadows". There is

no excuse

for somebody to be King, and for people to not know what they think. Especially when

he

is claiming to get everybody

else

giving opinions, he cannot sit idly by without sharing his

own

.

I agree, but there is a bit of a leap from this to his actions being an indicator of alignment.

This addresses MOS' post as well: I'm not trying to give DR a free pass. His contribution was terrible and he should be criticised for it. As far as I'm concerned, though, attacking him for it is a policy attack aimed at improving the standards of the game rather than aimed at catching scum.

5.) What I meant was that if you read Smashy's Post 3 into the game, his comments on other players are short - meaning it's difficult to tell where he would have gotten a basis for any of his positions. The point here was that he put SV on the list, but in his only paragraph in the game mentioning her, he lists two reasons. The first he throws out the window ("out that point goes" is what he says), and the second only says there were a "few slips", which is completely noncommittal and I have no clue what he is referring to in particular. This is something which could easily serve as a "fill-in-the-blank" reasoning, so that if he had executed SV, he could come up with his "justification" for it later. I do

not

like it when people are overly vague, and in my experience, being overly vague

is

a scumtell, and a very reliable one at that (although moreso reliable when it comes to vague role-claims).

I don't know, I'm pretty vague most of the time. Still, the point you're making is fair enough.

6.) "One Big Poor Contribution = Scumminess fallacy". You are mischaracterizing my post. When people try to make it look as if they are making a big contribution, when in fact they are saying nothing - that's a scumtell. DR's post looked

very

contributive, and helpful. But there was not a scrap of personal opinion in it. Those types of posts

are

scumtells in my opinion, and when it is compounded by the fact that DR also had not given much personal opinion throughout the course of the

entire game

, I certainly don't see this as an isolated incident (as is suggested by your specifying "one" big poor contribution), it is all the worse.

I don't think that is a scum tell. It's completely counterproductive, it just puts him in the spotlight.

I meant that as "one big 'poor contribution = scumminess' fallacy.'" I didn't mean to suggest it was an isolated incident.

[VitaminR]

The more the game is going on, the better I'm feeling about a Vitty-execution..

And... why?

[Toaster Strudel]

89 pages, still 16 players.

EXECUTE SOMEONE ALREADY!!!!

[Mastermind of Sin]

VitaminR, what do you think of this analysis of Dead Rikimaru? This was made before he disappeared as king, so it has nothing to do with the lurking, etc. that PJ was talking about.

Dead Rikimaru:
Day 1 -
- Considers distancing tactic between pablito and Glork
- Claims that he didn't promote a pablito/Glork pairing, just that pablito is trying hard to be paired with pablito, can't think of a protown reason for it
Day 2 -
- votes pablito, no additional reasoning
- No post from Oct 27 until Dec 12, nothing of substance or length until Dec 18
- Doesn't find Yos scummy (good post)
- Claims to be unable to read Pooky, prefers him over Yos
- Amused that the LoE only contains those who have criticized Glork
Day 3 -
- Ask for top 3 suspects from each player
- Doesn't believe in randomly executing lurkers
- Calls for prods on lurkers
- Asks why Glork would bus a scumbuddy early in the game (My answer: Because he knows someone like you would ask yourself this question. Glork has admitted to being willing to bus any and all partners if he thinks it will get him a free pass through the game)
- States there are too many lurkers
- Asks me if my position on Phoebus is the same (I'll get to him eventually)

Result: I'm fairly unimpressed with Dead Rikimaru's play so far. I believe he has contradicted himself Day 1, been generally unhelpful and non-committal Day 2, and has barely offered any of his own insight into the game. His Day 3 actions have been far better than the first two days, but that is to be expected from the pressure of being King. Even so, asking for suspects and collecting reasoning is a good way to pick people to go after without having to dig up your own reasoning (he can use a conglomeration of other person's reasoning to get a protown player lynched), and being concerned with lurkers is something that scum often do to try and look helpful and protown. Everyone is concerned with lurkers, but scum tend to overdo it a bit. I could definitely see Dead Rikimaru as scum right now.

[Thok]

mnowax has been prodded.

I am hunting for a replacement for Der Hammer.

Official vote count

King Zindaras (0):

List of Execution:

SV, VitaminR, Fritzler

Cogito Ergo Sum (0):
Der Hammer (2):
Fritzler (1):
KaleiÐoscøpe (0): mnowax, Fritzler
Lowell (1):
Mastermind of Sin (4):
mnowax (3): (MOS)
petroleumjelly (1): mnowax, SV, VitaminR
RafK (0): Yosarian2, SV
spectrumvoid (5): MOS
ThAdmiral (0):
Thesp (0): MOS, SV, Der Hammer
Toaster Strudel (0): MOS, SV, Der Hammer, VitaminR, mnowax
VitaminR (2): SV, PetroleumJelly
Yosarian2 (1): Lowell

[Mastermind of Sin]

CES, what do you think of SV?

[Thok]

Cavane replaces Der Hammer.