NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Juls]

@ABR- You started this day wanting to quick-lynch but not the person DGB wanted.

[Juls]

The thing I forgot to mention about Bookitty was this quote:

Okay, I completed my reread up to the point where LML posts his VCA. I have a huge list of notes that I can post if people want to see how I derived my viewpoints. It's HUGE though, and I won't be cleaning it up, but it's readable to me and I think it can be understood. I only focused on interactions with LML and about him, and only the ones that I thought were important.

See this seems dubious to me because she replaced in right after the LML VCA and I really think these notes were done pregame in an attempt to make her more townie. And nobody really asked her for her notes but she provided some anyway in 1390.

[Albert B. Rampage]

@ABR- You started this day wanting to quick-lynch but not the person DGB wanted.

I didn't completely agree with DGB on the order, but the gist of it remains the same. Beats rolling our thumbs repeating the same things over and over.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I sincerely believe that there's nothing more to be gained by more talking.

Now is the time for voting and hammering.

[Juls]

Well, I apologize. You asked me to replace into this game and I know I don't have the same amount of respect that a lot the player list does but I told myself that if I did replace in I wanted to give it my all. That's why it's taking me so long to read, I am seriously going through everything with a fine-tooth comb. I wish I was quicker about it but this game is a very big read and I have to do it in doses. I mean I get you all have been playing a long time but I just don't see what the rush is.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What are you talking about, you're the most active player right now. I'm talking about everyone else.

The MBLs and the VitaminRs of the game. Just shut up, stop tunnelling, and join a main bandwagon.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote CDB

[Juls]

VitaminR

Possibly Mafia with

: Yosarian

Probably not Mafia with

: Bookitty

I have avoided doing VitR and GC because I go back and forth on both of them so I think the best way to present these are just the good and the bad.

The good

:
In post 188 STD defends VitR from attacks being levied by GC about going after easy targets. Essentially, STD is saying "well I said basically the same thing, why am I not scummy?" Not sure if this defense would come from a buddy.

In post 279 Vit accuses LML of voting for STD but ignoring his content. This is a very strange defense/bus if he were buddies with both. It's hard for me to see this coming from scum.

In post 432 he calls PJ "opportunistic" for hopping on the LML wagon. Again, why would he go out on such a limb for a scumbuddy?

LML returns the favor by white-knighting for Vit against PJ in post 451 admonishing PJ for asking him to provide a list of "weak players"

From a non-interaction/strictly game play point of view, I appreciated post 659 where he backs off of PJ. This is particularly strong considering PJ is a viable counterwagon to LML at this point.

The bad

:

He was the first vote on LML in a lynch that was obviously bussed. This was also followed by some unnatural early interactions with LML.

I have already mentioned the chain-bus I am feeling from Yos/VitR though admittedly that not be the case due to more present interactions. I will keep a closer eye on these two's interactions as I read.

The I don't know

:
These are a couple of interactions I felt were worth noting but I really don't know what to do with them.

In post 251, VitR posts a case by STD that makes him think STD is town.

In post 343 places a huge pile of WIFOM on my screen by saying

I think anyone who is looking to create a correlation between me and VitR is acting certainly scummy and may very well be trying to domino lynches.

This quote will haunt every read I have on Vit. Well played LML. I am treating it as NULL because I know it was meant for either 1)WIFOM or 2) for us to think of it as WIFOM. It's literally nested WIFOM.

I am also curious about this post where VitR says he is not sure if he has ever seen ABR look more town because he has avoided taking the "easy road". This was actually Yosarian's comment but he agreed with it.

@Yos and @Vit

- do you still feel this way?

I only owe you GC now. I will try to work on it but I have to take my daughter to soccer practice in a little over an hour but I will definitely have it up tonight. Then I will get back to reading. I will try to pick up the pace on that somewhat.

[mathcam]

ABR: I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish, but I'm starting to question your sanity. Why wouldn't a person so ravenously craving a lynch not keep their vote on porochaz, especially one who had quite willingly declared porochaz as scum repeatedly in the last couple of days? Or, barring that, why not at least justify your spasmodic vote switches in the hopes of getting other people to join you? Perhaps there was another instance in which I or CDB failed to defend your honor, thereby earning your vote?

I haven't put ABR in my scummy pile in a long time, but at this point, it's starting to feel less like "town ABR desperate to lynch" and more like "ABR is realizing he's looking pro-town via his desperation and is intentionally trying to foster that appearance."

Juls: I'm quite happy with the rate at which you're catching up. The only thing I would note is that their

is

a detriment in letting the game stagnate, so it is a matter of weighing pros and cons as to how worth it is to delay for you to catch up. That said, I think almost everyone else remaining is in it for the long haul. I'm a little curious about your chamber read (being the last in a long series of players to find him very pro-town, none of which have offered justifications for this stance), but it's not worth doing a write-up for. Maybe tomorrow.

[Juls]

Well chamber is an overall feel. He has challenged people in the appropriate places, been annoyed at the appropriate places and at the appropriate levels. I know I felt a lot of his postings were town but I have been making more notes on who I thought was scummy as opposed to townie. He was the first that I moved to the town-read column. As I continue to read I will make a point to pick up more notes on town-tells too.

[Yosarian2]

besides the fact that I played a major role pushing both scum lynches we've had so far,

Bullshit. You had 0 role in the std lynch.

I counted votes early in the day, and I do not think there were enough votes to lynch STD without my vote. Maybe it would have happened at deadline anyway, or maybe the replcament of PJ would have changed things, I don't know. But I certainly do think I played a major role in the lynch of STD.

[Yosarian2]

I haven't got to the std lynch yet ( I replaced on late that day) but weren't you pushing DGB when I entered?

No.

I was questioning DGB, because I wanted to be sure she was town before I lynhced STD, but I never actually attacked her.

When you get a chance, take a look at my posts again. I asked her what I'm sure looked like a really bizzare question and then did everything I could to pressure her to take it seriously and answer it, and then when she did, I declared her town and voted for STD. I never actually made a case against her (and I easily could have; she did defend LML pretty hard day 1, for example). If I was trying to lynch DGB, it would look very different then that.

I understand that looked weird, but DGB is really hard to get a definitive read off of. I was expecting her to be alive for most of the rest of the game, and really wanted to confirm (in my own mind) that she was town so I'd know I could listen to her.

[MrBuddyLee]

You absolutely did not play a major role in the lynch of STD. You opposed his lynch for 2 3/4 game days and found him a null read three real-life days before he was lynched. You made many arguments for him being pro-town over time. You actively dismissed my case on STD as unconvincing. And the process by which you determined STD was scum made no sense whatsoever.. as you berated DGB about a false dichotomy that one of {her, STD} had to be scum.

All you did was lend a reluctant vote when it was already STD 6, DGB 3. Your arguments convinced no one to sign on to STD, they convinced no one that DGB was town, and it was pretty much obvious that STD was going to be forced to claim without your vote.

So why are you overstating your involvement? It feels hugely scummy.

[Yosarian2]

And the process by which you determined STD was scum made no sense whatsoever.. as you berated DGB about a false dichotomy that one of {her, STD} had to be scum.

As I think I made clear, I was deliberately exaggerating the certainty I had on that score in order to get a reaction out of DGB that would allow me to read her.

That being said, I still say that that made perfect sense. There was almost no way you could get a 4 man scumgroup yesterday that didn't include either DGB or STD.

You're right, early in this game, I thought STD was town. I also thought Albert was town, DGB was town, PJ was town, Sotty was town, Bookitty was town, GC was town, Porochaz was town, and several others as well. By day 4, I knew that some of my early town reads had to be wrong.

By the way, I didn't "dismiss" your case. In fact I agreed that it made sense and said so in the thread, and that was really the point where I started wondering about STD.

So why are you overstating your involvement? It feels hugely scummy.

I don't think I am. Almost from the start of the day, I expressed a willingness to lynch STD, said that I thought he was the most likely scum, and I said over and over again that either STD or DGB had to be scum. I did want to get an answer from DGB before actually voting, but I think I played a pretty big role in driving the STD wagon yesterday, even before I cast that vote.

[Porochaz]

Interesting line yos is taking. Im not even sure why he is pursuing it. ABR, why do you think he is town?

mathcams recent post is most interesting, if you want my help in joining a wagon, ABR, then I would start there.

[chamber]

You are guilty of self delusion on a scale that's incomprehensible to me if you are town and truly believe that you were a factor in getting him lynched beyond placing a single vote at a time when you were in a position where you really couldn't do anything else.

[chamber]

Poro still needs to be lynched first though, look at his most recent post.

And it's time to actually make that lynch happen. We've waited enough for juls reads. Thank you for them, juls. I don't want to seem like a dick, the game is just losing its momentum while we wait.

[undo]

Juls you have yos and mathcam as scum reads but said they are unlikely scum together. What do you think of there little back and forth between 3724 and 3738? My initial reaction was to side with mathcam and I felt more open to lynching yos after reading it. Others seemed to have the opposite reaction. What do you think?

undo, buddy, I think you're tunneling a little on VitR. What's your current read on yos/mathcam?

Still leaning town/scum. But I must admit I'm starting to feel uneasy about Yos.

mathcam is probably the most consensual lynch today anyway. He was first on DGB's lynch list after all.

VOTE: mathcam

Oh and Juls, your contributions are invaluable. Thank you for that.

[Juls]

I agree to a lynch tonight but I would just ask you give me to this evening to get out my thoughts on GC.

[chamber]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (1) -- Juls
Porochaz (6) -- Green Crayons, mathcam, Sotty7, chamber, Albert B. Rampage, VitaminR
mathcam (1) -- Yosarian2
VitaminR (1) -- undo

Not voting: Bookitty, ChannelDelibird, MrBuddyLee, Porochaz
14 alive, 8 to lynch.

Yep, mathcam is definitely the most universally agreed upon scum suspect.

[MrBuddyLee]

Poro still needs to be lynched first though, look at his most recent post.

word

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll iso Prozac tomorrow to be sure but I'll probably be voting for him then.

[Patrick]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (2) -- SpyreX, Albert B. Rampage
Yosarian2 (1) -- Juls
Porochaz (5) -- Green Crayons, mathcam, Sotty7, chamber, VitaminR
mathcam (2) -- Yosarian2, undo

Not voting: Bookitty, ChannelDelibird, MrBuddyLee, Porochaz
14 alive, 8 to lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

Juls, my gut tells me that STD did something weird here for a reason:

(At least) one of this set { petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons }
is highly likely to be opportunistic mafia. You can toss LoudMouthLee in there for the FOS.

I started that list at petroleumjelly because it was his reasoning that seemed to get people on board, less so Tigris's. Thus that leaves Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons, and LoudMouthLee. I believe one of them is likely to be mafia.

Thus I would be down with lynching any one of those people. At this point of the game I will be willing to join any of these wagons.

Why did he pick out that wagon to attack? Probably because his "top" suspect, Seol, was on it. You might also consider that if a bunch of his scumteam was on the wagon, he might simply focus on attacking Seol instead of pointing out multiple suspicious scumpartners in such a small set. Why distance from LML unnecessarily by throwing him in the mix? Because LML had just voted him. Tit for tat.

The two weird things I see are:

1) He added LML to the list of people on the wagon, even though LML only FOSed SSK.
2) He said "one of them is likely to be mafia" twice, but added to one "(At least)".

I hypothesize that he added LML to the wagon for the FOS because there weren't any scum (besides STD) on the wagon, and this made STD feel better about his statement that there was one mafia on that wagon. (He himself was the/a mafia on the wagon, but he didn't want to be pointing to himself, so he added LML somewhat arbitrarily for the FOS.)

I hypothesize that he changed one of his "one of them is mafia" to "(at least) one is mafia" because he didn't want to be accused later of being "too correct" that there was exactly one mafia in that set. (LML).

I will be pretty surprised if it turns out later that STD drew attention to a wagon with three scum on it. STD was on that wagon. LML was on that wagon for the FOS. If GC, Poro, Tigris or Boo are scum, that means STD drew early attention to a wagon with THREE scum on it. I really don't think that's the kind of thing scum tends to do.

MafiaSSK (6) -- Tigris, Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons
You can toss LoudMouthLee in there for the FOS.

Side note: it'd be pretty crazy if STD was attacking all those townies on the wagon, and distancing from LML by using the wagon, and hiding his own involvement on the wagon, if SSK were scum.

Again, it's a lot of gut here and not really logic per se, but I feel like SSK, Seol, Poro, GC and possibly Tigris are likely town based on STD's behavior here.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, I just read Poro's ISO and I'm pretty null on him based on his words. But I really couldn't come up with a compelling argument based on his posts that he's town. He doesn't seem to be trying to have it both ways on anything.. he's very straightforward about how he thinks, even if a lot of his "reasoning" can get nonspecific at times. That's about as positive as I can get.. he really has been super lazy since DGB flipped. I'd have expected more effort from town that gave a shit.

meh meh meh

@Poro

, can you please explain your townread of VitR, if that's how you still feel about him?

Also, why do your opinions of GC range between "obvtown" and "what actual scum hunting is he doing"?

Has your read of Boo changed since two weeks ago when you made her "null"?

I also can't find your opinion of chamber since you called his case on you "lazy" 2-3 weeks ago.

One reason for us to find you scummy is that:

My reads have been wrong and my lynch is almost certainly on the cards, despite the case being PoE sand my lurking, it means no defence really, and I am struggling to continue a reread when anything I say is going to be pointless

If you were town, you'd know that your words could potentially be taken seriously after you're lynched, meaning any work you did right now WOULDN'T be pointless.