Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[The Bulge]

Also can somebody remind me

why

I'm assumed to be werewolf? Like what's the case on me? I barely remember the first half of this game.

[fuzzybutternut]

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

You don't know the set up of an Open game you're in?

then, in no way, shape, or form, is analyzing a NK something scum does in thread. What would be the point of that? Voting me for that just shows that you're looking for a lynch without foundation. Find a good reason to vote me and then I'll acknowledge it a little more.

Have you really never seen scum NK commentary or are you feigning ignorance?

And why did you vote Splash over Titus/Shaded at the end of the day? Both wagons were on L-3 when you voted and your case on Shaded seemed to be better than your one on the Maru slot.

VOTE: Fuzzy

I wasn't around during the end of the day? Literally, Titus was lynched while I was asleep. I never got to state my opinion on the matter. Saying I would've voted Titus yesterday means nothing, so this point is null. I left my vote where I thought it should be. That's that.

I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.

Interesting. Pasch is probably the mafia on the wagon. bjc's read was a really good one and 544 ( above this post ) may as well be a mafia claim. Normally I wouldn't really suspect bussing Day 1, but I think Pasch came so close to lynching that she said "Fuck it, I'd rather lose a scum partner than leave the game" and went with it.

That said, if you two are the remaining mafia I'd rather lynch you over her because she feels more useful.

Bulge looks really good as a werewolf.

As for the last werewolf, the biggest wagon on Bulge yesterday was: fuzzybutternut, Paschendale, Desperado, bjc, snscompt1,

Maruchan

Splashcloud. As I said, I don't

normally

consider a Day 1 bus to be a thing so that leaves wickedestjr, Bins, and and Not_Mafia. Bulge tunneled really hard on Not_Mafia so we can knock him off the list plus his play is awesome. I don't have a scum read on wickedestjr or Bins, and Bulge didn't vote either. I like that Bins voted Bulge on 253. It wasn't a wagon that was going to go anywhere at the time of her vote but it was well past RVS and the reason was decent imo. Wickedestjr's "I'm surprised I'm still alive" in 517 is weird to me but

probably

maybe not scummy. Either way they are both very active and that is many days away. And all of this paragraph is based on Bulge flipping Werewolf. If he doesn't then back to square one we go... well, square one minus one mafia team.

tl;dr:

Paschendale

,

fuzzybutternut

,

The Bulge

. All these people need to die. More votes on fuzzy plz.

PS: bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good. He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

You say bulge looks really good as a werewolf, and then you vote me. You do realize that werewolves are a bigger threat than mafia, right? By not voting who you think is werewolf, you're actually a hindrance to the town.

VOTE: Unsight

The bus is real with this one.

[Wickedestjr]

Reading now. Sorry guys.

[Wickedestjr]

Bins seems like town for all of her posts on page 21. Pretty confident in that read. Right now, I have no strong town reads aside from her and sns.

Regarding night kill analysis, I still believe that it's unhelpful at this point because anyone had good reason to choose reinoe for the kill. I do think that werewolves should be trying to kill mafia rather than town reads, though - unless they see a seer tell/crumb, they're more likely to hit mafia than seer.

On the topic of who we should lynch, it's good to lynch mafia but I agree that werewolves pose a much greater threat. Both teams have two members, but werewolves have a kill - so if we can, we should try to lynch one of them. Last time I played in a jungle republic, the werewolves won it - I think we could be in trouble if both wolves survive to day 3.

I have some other notes. Soon I will post them in a readable manner.

[Wickedestjr]

Just realized that most/all the rest of my notes are regarding Pasch or fuzzy. This post is dedicated to Paschendale, next one will be dedicated to fuzzy.

Despite them being by my scumreads, those last votes on Titus by Bulge and Bins didn't look very bussy. It's possible that the whole wagon was town.

This could be a werewolf slip. I have trouble seeing Paschendale make this mistake if he is really town.

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

Also, because missing important setup details is apparently my thing lately, I just noticed that the mafia sample PM does not include a factional kill. So it is not, in fact, noteworthy that there was only one kill. We know that there should only have been one.

This might be a genuine not-mafia tell. Only problem is that I've seen mafia try this before.

PS:

bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good.

He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

This reaction feels off. Trying to understand if you are town. If Shaded was scum and you suspect Bulge enough to vote him, why is it laughworthy that bjc would get credit for 2/3?

[Splashcloud]

Regarding night kill analysis, I still believe that it's unhelpful at this point because anyone had good reason to choose reinoe for the kill. I do think that werewolves should be trying to kill mafia rather than town reads, though - unless they see a seer tell/crumb, they're more likely to hit mafia than seer.

For the werewolves to try and kill a scum, they would probably kill someone who the town also thought was scummy. Therefore they just killed someone who the town was suspicious about, and left a bunch of players the town believes are town, and won't lynch. It would probably be easier to leave the scummy acting people and have the town kill them off instead of searching for more scum, therefore by the time town has killed all the people they think are scummy, the werewolves could have killed off a fair amount of town people as well, and maybe accidentally hit a scum in the process.

I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.

Interesting. Pasch is probably the mafia on the wagon. bjc's read was a really good one and 544 ( above this post ) may as well be a mafia claim. Normally I wouldn't really suspect bussing Day 1, but I think Pasch came so close to lynching that she said "Fuck it, I'd rather lose a scum partner than leave the game" and went with it.

That said, if you two are the remaining mafia I'd rather lynch you over her because she feels more useful.

Bulge looks really good as a werewolf.

As for the last werewolf, the biggest wagon on Bulge yesterday was: fuzzybutternut, Paschendale, Desperado, bjc, snscompt1,

Maruchan

Splashcloud. As I said, I don't

normally

consider a Day 1 bus to be a thing so that leaves wickedestjr, Bins, and and Not_Mafia. Bulge tunneled really hard on Not_Mafia so we can knock him off the list plus his play is awesome. I don't have a scum read on wickedestjr or Bins, and Bulge didn't vote either. I like that Bins voted Bulge on 253. It wasn't a wagon that was going to go anywhere at the time of her vote but it was well past RVS and the reason was decent imo. Wickedestjr's "I'm surprised I'm still alive" in 517 is weird to me but

probably

maybe not scummy. Either way they are both very active and that is many days away. And all of this paragraph is based on Bulge flipping Werewolf. If he doesn't then back to square one we go... well, square one minus one mafia team.

tl;dr:

Paschendale

,

fuzzybutternut

,

The Bulge

. All these people need to die. More votes on fuzzy plz.

PS: bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good. He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

Why is that you say everyone on Bugle's wagon isn't a werewolf. Isn't it possible someone was trying to distance themselves away from him?

[Paschendale]

This could be a werewolf slip. I have trouble seeing Paschendale make this mistake if he is really town.

This might be a genuine not-mafia tell. Only problem is that I've seen mafia try this before.

I genuinely just forgot. I've had a rather busy week and was distracted. It's RL stuff, not game stuff. I'd rather be right than look innocent for bad reasons.

This reaction feels off. Trying to understand if you are town. If Shaded was scum and you suspect Bulge enough to vote him, why is it laughworthy that bjc would get credit for 2/3?

Because his justifications were terrible and he did nothing to sell those reads. I don't give credit for random guesses if you don't actually help lynch scum. I consider his replacing out null, though.

[Not_Mafia]

I wasn't around during the end of the day? Literally, Titus was lynched while I was asleep. I never got to state my opinion on the matter. Saying I would've voted Titus yesterday means nothing, so this point is null. I left my vote where I thought it should be. That's that.

You had 2 equal wagons you could have joined (Titus and Splashcloud) and I don't see why you joined this read...

Maru isn't just lurking. If he was, he wouldn't be saying anything. Instead, he's posting useless shit and actively hindering town.

over this read...

Secondly, these two posts are what make me think Shaded is scum.

He puts a vote on Pasch. Says he has no scum reads and IN HIS VERY NEXT POST, declares Pasch absolute scum. Now, I'm not saying pasch isn't scum, but you can't just go from >I have no scum reads to >This guy is definitely scum.

He was mindlessly sheeping and trying to get a lynch through while not actively contributing.

Especially as the Titus lynch had more support and was more likely to go through whilst we had such a stagnant town

[fuzzybutternut]

In my mind, even mindlessly sheeping is still better than hindering town completely. I hate when people don't do anything and expect to just get by with it.

[Unsight]

Why is that you say everyone on Bugle's wagon isn't a werewolf. Isn't it possible someone was trying to distance themselves away from him?

It is possible. The only potential distancing I can see was snscompt1's quick jump from The Bulge to non-voting after Bulge said he could "guarantee" he was town ( which was a bizarre-as-hell post anyway ). It could just as easily have been cold feet so it didn't really stand out to me in my first read through. Even after a reread, I still feel that off-wagon is the smart place to look if Bulge flips scum.

[Unsight]

You say bulge looks really good as a werewolf, and then you vote me. You do realize that werewolves are a bigger threat than mafia, right? By not voting who you think is werewolf, you're actually a hindrance to the town.

VOTE: Unsight

The bus is real with this one.

Salty~

Put aside the OMGUS and help me answer two questions:

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?
2) If Bulge is not a Wolf, whose votes look opportunistic from yesterday's wagons?

Those are the questions I'll be reading to answer tonight/tomorrow.

[fuzzybutternut]

Put aside the OMGUS and help me answer two questions:

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?
2) If Bulge is not a Wolf, whose votes look opportunistic from yesterday's wagons?

1.) Not OMGUS. Learn what OMGUS means and then get back to me.

2.) Assuming Bulge is a wolf, you look fantastic as the other wolf right now.

3.) If Bulge is not a wolf, I'd have to go back and re-read.

If-then scenarios do absolutely nothing unless we pursue one of the options.

[fuzzybutternut]

I do agree with your suspicion on SNS, though. Not enough to sway me, but alas. Tis life.

[Paschendale]

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?

Your slot does.

[Wickedestjr]

Pretty confident that fuzzy is not a werewolf. The werewolf speculation yesterday + initiation of night kill discussion + Unsight vote don't make sense for him as werewolf. It makes more sense for him to hunt werewolves as mafia, cannot see the nightkill interest coming from someone who conducted the kill, and his question/vote in 551 regarding Unsight are both solid.

I actually think that fuzzy is mafia.

1. He makes sense as Shaded/Titus's partner.
a.) Unsight brought up a very good point. It didn't make sense for fuzzy to vote for Splashcloud instead of Shaded yesterday. Looks like he might have been trying to protect a scum buddy. Note that he orginally said that he wanted to lynch Bulge, then Shaded, then Pasch. Also, in post 453 he said that he wanted to give Splashcloud time to play after replacing in. But in post 491, two days later, he voted Splashcloud and Splash never posted in between 453 and 491.

b.) Titus town read fuzzy but wouldn't explain even after I asked her for her reasoning. She's unwilling to answer my question, but is instead willing to enter a pretty long exchange with fuzzy. That's strange on its own but it also bothers me that she chose fuzzy in particular to question - it's not clear why she chose him. Some of the posts in that exchange also feel disingenuous. E.g. this;

Prob scum based on Shaded's actings. Prove to me you aren't scum and you can live.

c.) fuzzy tries to take credit for bussing Shaded here;

Now, please tell me, what would be the purpose in bussing my scumbuddy in a setup like this? That would potentially leave my team at a disadvantage, as having them lynched would leave us one less and possibly two less, assuming we were mafia and not werewolves. At any case, it's damn near suicidal to do.

The problem here is that fuzzy didn't really bus Shaded. He expressed intent to vote Shaded on multiple occasions but always found a better vote or an excuse to not vote that slot. fuzzy could have not posted at all and that lynch still would have happened. Doesn't count as a bus as far as I'm concerned.

d.) fuzzy's reasons for suspecting Shaded were better than his reasons for suspecting Splash/Maruchan. So it's even stranger that he voted Splash at deadline. (I think somebody else pointed this out, but I'm not sure.)


2. Bulge has a good point here;

@fuzzy - You asked everyone else for their thoughts on the NK but never provided yours.

There was nothing wrong with asking about the night kill. But it's weird that he brought it up and proceeded to not show any interest in the subject. Not sure why he would do it as scum (maybe he didn't want to contribute at that point), but I am sure that it is strange.


3. Yesterday, fuzzy expressed his belief that Bulge and Maruchan might be werewolves rather than mafia. But his reasoning is very weak. He says;

His lack of actual content makes it seem like he's just trying to pass the day through to get through and get his NK done so he can line something up for the days after.

...but this doesn't actually make any sense. Just seems like fuzzy's not hunting for mafia.

4. fuzzy's suspicions of Bulge and Maruchan are not only weird because he called them werewolves specifically. The reasoning he provides for suspecting them is also flawed.
a.) He attacked Bulge for his "mindless sheeping" Paschendale vote even though there were three worse offenders, the three that voted Paschendale AFTER Bulge did. Bulge was the first person to vote for Paschendale after his reads post and it was clear that he was voting Pasch for that post. However, fuzzy accuses him of mindlessly following and shows no interest in the three people that followed his vote.

b.) For the last week of day 1, I had been trying to understand his Maruchan suspicion. fuzzy voted Maruchan and later explained his reasoning;

SNS is town.

Maru is useless.

Pasch can wait. Let's lynch Shaded tomorrow, Pasch the next day, ez pz lemon sqz

Maru isn't just lurking. If he was, he wouldn't be saying anything. Instead,

he's posting useless shit and actively hindering town.

Of course you dont like my plan. I have unveiled ye scum team.

So it's clear that he's voting Maruchan for being useless and that's his only reasoning. But he has also said the following;

^That never has and never will make someone scum.

Useless town =/= scum.

Doesnt mean they shouldn't be lynched, but

we should take out scum before we worry about useless town.

That is a blatant contradiction. You can't vote somebody solely for being useless and also say that uselessness =/= scum. I have asked him about this contradiction for over a week and at the end of day 1 he said;

I'll answer that tomorrow, Wicked.

But he has still yet to answer, which leads me to believe he doesn't have an answer.

[Wickedestjr]

Not voting yet. I have some rereading to do. Might be a good time for meta'ing as well.

fuzzy is probably scum, but I actually don't want to lynch him today. He looks like scum, but is more likely mafia than werewolf and I think we should be focusing on werewolves.

I'll cast a vote ASAP.

[Wickedestjr]

For the werewolves to try and kill a scum, they would probably kill someone who the town also thought was scummy. Therefore they just killed someone who the town was suspicious about, and left a bunch of players the town believes are town, and won't lynch. It would probably be easier to leave the scummy acting people and have the town kill them off instead of searching for more scum, therefore by the time town has killed all the people they think are scummy, the werewolves could have killed off a fair amount of town people as well, and maybe accidentally hit a scum in the process.

1. The town are hunting for mafia and werewolves. The mafia are (or should be) hunting only for werewolves. That makes them more threatening for werewolves.
2. The town are all uninformed. The mafia serve as an anti-werewolf masonry if you will and if werewolves become a serious threat of winning then they may even claim. That makes them more threatening for werewolves.
3. Werewolves win when they comprise half the town and

at least one pro-town player remains

. If werewolves comprise one half and mafia comprise the other half, then mafia wins. That makes mafia more threatening to the werewolves, because they currently CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill a mafia goon. If werewolves lose a member then they CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill both mafia goons.
4. The only pro-town threat to werewolves is the seer. But again the werewolves are twice as likely to get a mafia goon if they focus on them.
5. Why do you want werewolves to kill pro-town people?

[fuzzybutternut]

Will post here tomorrow. Ive had 2 hours of sleep in 2 days. Hooray.

[Splashcloud]

For the werewolves to try and kill a scum, they would probably kill someone who the town also thought was scummy. Therefore they just killed someone who the town was suspicious about, and left a bunch of players the town believes are town, and won't lynch. It would probably be easier to leave the scummy acting people and have the town kill them off instead of searching for more scum, therefore by the time town has killed all the people they think are scummy, the werewolves could have killed off a fair amount of town people as well, and maybe accidentally hit a scum in the process.

1. The town are hunting for mafia and werewolves. The mafia are (or should be) hunting only for werewolves. That makes them more threatening for werewolves.
2. The town are all uninformed. The mafia serve as an anti-werewolf masonry if you will and if werewolves become a serious threat of winning then they may even claim. That makes them more threatening for werewolves.
3. Werewolves win when they comprise half the town and

at least one pro-town player remains

. If werewolves comprise one half and mafia comprise the other half, then mafia wins. That makes mafia more threatening to the werewolves, because they currently CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill a mafia goon. If werewolves lose a member then they CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill both mafia goons.
4. The only pro-town threat to werewolves is the seer. But again the werewolves are twice as likely to get a mafia goon if they focus on them.
5. Why do you want werewolves to kill pro-town people?

1) But to make half the people mafia, doesn't part of the Towny people have to die?

3) I'm pretty sure some of the town still needs to die for them to be half, considering there is only two of them.

5) I don't, I'm just wondering about what you said.

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?

Your slot does.

Reasons?

[Mist7676]

snscompt1 and Desperado Prodded

[snscompt1]

Prod acknowledged. Sorry.
Havent had much to say. Post more today.

[Desperado]

More Bulge votes plz

[The Bulge]

More Bulge votes plz

@Desp - You acknowledge your vote as naked, but make no effort to "dress" it and instead just use it as a shot against N_M. Care to enlighten us? And does the vote have anything to do with N_M (ie associative tells)?

This is a serious question. I'm genuinely curious about that last part in particular.

[Bins]

More Bulge votes plz

@Desp - You acknowledge your vote as naked, but make no effort to "dress" it and instead just use it as a shot against N_M. Care to enlighten us? And does the vote have anything to do with N_M (ie associative tells)?

This is a serious question. I'm genuinely curious about that last part in particular.

Woof woof.

I wanted to vote Fuzzy, but I agree wholehearting with Wicked that WWs are what we need to catch right now.

I'm going to do my reread tonight, and probably order who's most likely to be a WW. I'm leaning Bulge and Unsight for now.

[Desperado]

This is a serious question. I'm genuinely curious about that last part in particular.

I don't scumhunt via associative tells on unflipped slots.