X-Men: Age of Apocalypse (Game Over)

[Venmar]

It'd be pretty sweet if someone redirected a kill on me onto ETL, it would mean my neighborhood prediction of me dying would have been correct.

[Feu et Vol]

I am X-Man, 1-Shot Redirecting Gunsmith. I can use my power each night, but as soon as it's successful, I lose it. Each Night, I choose two targets, the second of which cannot be in my hood. If the first target has a gun and is performing a killing action that evening, I will redirect their shot to the second target.

This is my problem with Toog. I have never heard or or seen a 1-shot role that only takes the shot away if successful.

I also don't quite understand the whole can't be in their hood thing. If the role is true it feels more like a scum nerf for a role to ensure they can't just take out almost half the Neighborhood in one night.

-Beast

[ika]

what if you bth just scums on opposing teams?

[Venmar]

That is a weird role.

[My Milked Eek]

While feu and bork are both alive, here's what happened N3 to our hood (in a nutshell);

We were discussing having feu kill molla.
I voted molla.
ETL said I should unvote to prevent me screwing up.
I told her to shut up.
Bork said scum in our hood had to be in [etl-eek].
I agreed (having townread both bork and feu) and being tired of the game I said I could be lynched if etl was up next.
ETL raged.
I raged.
ETL raged some more.
bork said "I don't want to be a part of this".
We ignored each other pretty much after that.

Come morning

> mfw ETL died

Toog votes feu out of the gates. (nullifying our sensor objectives once again, but who cares about that anymore)
feu calls one of bork and me scum (or both, don't remember, don't care, reaction seemed genuine) in our hood
feu claims vig
Toog claims redirector
snow claims the tracking result
bork ignores town read on feu
mme townreads feu


That's in a nutshell what happened to my hood when ULF died.

As you can see, the ETL kill is a bit too coincidental, at least what I'm concerned. And the fact that feu is used to kill her is even more coincidental.


Ignore this or not, I just feel this needs to be posted before feu gets lynched.

[My Milked Eek]

The reason, bork, why I expected you to bring this up is because I think it is something you would normally discuss in the game thread. So far I've seen you approach everything rationally. Looking at things from every angle. The fact that you did not mention our argument even once since ETL died, is making me paranoid. Combined with the fact that you're not being logical about this feu thing and I don't know man. That's off.

[borkjerfkin]

On phone, but how is "adjusting my read on feu instead of inventing reasons I can't begin to prove for why feu was tracked to two targets" anything but utterly rational?

you've gotten the gist of what went on in the hood, but glossed over shit like how 90% of my posts were about scumhunting other people and how I repeatedly said how unsure I was of my hood members. Like I even said there was an outside shot at feu red. I remember this vividly. I sure as fuck didn't say scum HAD to be in you or etl. Feu said that.

Your argument about my failure to mention your spat is the worst burden if proficiency argument I've ever heard. you two engaged in a pissing match. I am not pushing you today; in fact, feu's flip is going to influence my read on you considerably (due to the setup). Either way, pushing ny failure to bring it up immediately when it isn't all that relevant to today and failute to even scratch at how that betrays motivation of any kind is dishonest as fuck.

[borkjerfkin]

So that's why feu asked not to policy lynch ulf before the game. I knew it!

Like holy shit dude
This is you upon initial reaction to the track.

Then you hard 180 and refuse to budge after a cursory analysis because feu just couldn't have fakeclaimed and lied with his team.

Paranoia about him I get. I still have a little because the claim was well executed (the evidence against him is fucking damning though) But you aren't showing any. You are barely acknowledging that it is incredibly likely he was legitimately tracked to two targets.

[BBmolla]

I'm anything but neutral or meh with my reads. I use "Probably" to describe them. Boo fucking hoo, go OMGUS me on your own time, I gtg.

LOL

[Rogue]

Because SKOT hasn't logged on

???

-R

[borkjerfkin]

I want kill stop and detective then.

Need the following on the wagon:

C9
Rogue
BBMolla
Toog (already on, someone else from this hood can hammer)
Skot
Ika

Failure to comply is a scum claim.

[Rogue]

Ah

I WANT HAMMER

-R

[Toogeloo]

SKOT needs to be prodded or (preferably) replaced himself. He has less posts than Molla who replaced in at almost 200 pages, and Desperado has almost as many posts, and Desp isn't even doing vote counts that frequently. He's single-handedly holding up the game at this point.

Eek's posts just deserve pats on the head and a lollipop hand-off, maybe even a little scratching behind the ears and a "good boy." He's not instrumental in today's play since he's neither involved in the Toog-Feu-Snow love triangle, nor is he a necessity on the lynch, so I've just been largely ignoring his posts.

Other than that, I have nothing else I think needs commenting on until the flip happens, unless someone wants more specific information from me that I'm willing to divulge.

[My Milked Eek]

Read my posts ffs.0

[Feu et Vol]

SKOT needs to be prodded or (preferably) replaced himself. He has less posts than Molla who replaced in at almost 200 pages, and Desperado has almost as many posts, and Desp isn't even doing vote counts that frequently. He's single-handedly holding up the game at this point.

Eek's posts just deserve pats on the head and a lollipop hand-off, maybe even a little scratching behind the ears and a "good boy." He's not instrumental in today's play since he's neither involved in the Toog-Feu-Snow love triangle, nor is he a necessity on the lynch, so I've just been largely ignoring his posts.

Other than that, I have nothing else I think needs commenting on until the flip happens, unless someone wants more specific information from me that I'm willing to divulge.

Are you just going to ignore my post or what?

-Beast

[Sharpest-knife-on-tree]

now that the distractions are over

vote Feut...

This needs to happen
TIA

[Rogue]

You still need rope.

Tia

[Sharpest-knife-on-tree]

You still need rope.

Tia

[My Milked Eek]

Are you just going to ignore my post or what?

-Beast

He's ignoring what doesn't fit their case.

It's pretty obvious the tracking result is the odd one in the bunch.

0. Desp confirmed scum cannot kill and perform their action in the same night

1. Feu claims to have shot molla

2. Toog has confirmed that he redirected a gun shot from feu to etl

-> This means that Feu really shot someone, a molla shot isn't confirmed, but the fact that feu can shoot has been confirmed

3. Snow confirmed to have track results of feu to two targets

-> Given #0, feu cannot be scum unless he's a role that can target two people at once. If we're to assume that feu is a bus driver (or something similar), that would mean that

toog is lying

. Toog confirmed that he lost his 1-shot ability, so feu definitely shot someone (cf. #2). Bus drivers and similar roles can't shoot. Not to mention the conflict with #0. If we're disregarding the toog conflict on this, then why would a bus driver claim a vig role? (more on this later). The only logical explanation for feuscum in this case is if he is the last scum of his faction. This is my first multiple faction game (or that I can remember) so I'm not too sure on balance, but given how bork constantly talked about 3v3v14 being balanced, I'm going to say that 2v?v? isn't going to be entirely balanced.
-> I remember people talking about feu being scumbuddies with venmar, but this goes directly against #0.

If feu and venmar are scum he could not have targetted two people.

"

But what if he's a role that can target two people like a bus driver?

" Shut up, we know for a fact that feu shot (#2) or are you saying feu is scum with venmar AND toog? Which again, goes against #0.


All I know is I'm yet to see a logical explanation of the dual track that doesn't hand-wave all these objections and (if I say so myself) logical conclusion away.


I can't get why people are down with feuscum while the very thought of feu being scum goes against the rules and claims that have come forth.

[My Milked Eek]

I'll say it once more: lynching feu does not solve this claim puzzle.

[borkjerfkin]

for fuck's sake eek.

I will again outline all the possibilities as I see them, because apparently this shit doesn't get through to people.

[borkjerfkin]

Descending order of likelihood for me:

Scenario #1: Feu is lying, Toog is lying, and Feu is a role that visited two targets, killing neither of them

Hey guess what: Eek's assertion that we 'know for a fact Feu shot someone' is not a fact at all. You know when it becomes fact? When Toog flips town. Feu could have visited two targets (not killing either of them) and if Feu is a bus driver (one of the most common two target roles AND one that would have a reason to visit ETL) someone on his team could have shot at Venmar, killing ETL and circumventing any possible protection on ETL. If Feu flips scum, Toog is demonstrably lying. None of this is remotely improbable. There are a ways Toog could have known what Feu was doing in advance - if there are two scum in my hood, and Toog is also scum, he knew about Feu's claim already, whether he was scum with or against Feu. It's wonderfully convenient this just happened on the night Feu had planned to shoot again.

Not to mention without the track, Toog and Feu's stuff is internally consistent and doesn't require anyone to necessarily be lying. This track threw a wrench into a plan.

Scenario #2: Snowstorm is lying

Nuff said here pretty much - Feu didn't visit two targets. Toog could be either alignment here. I do believe snowstorm got the track result as no one has CCed PV giving it to them (could have gone to ETL but that's a huge risk for scum to take), but it's feasible he could have made up what was in it (although thinking of two targets would not be my first inclination as scum)

Scenario #3: Someone fucked around with PV's track result, sending it to someone who did visit two people (that isn't toog)

This is, as I said, essentially equivalent to ignoring a cop guilty because 'there might be a framer'. It COULD have happened, yes. I don't see it as even close to the most likely outcome. Said person would have to know 1) PV was a tracker and 2) who he was tracking in order to make this really work. Top that with a claimed redirector that, while targeting Feu, doesn't explain the track result and now you have to posit that there is another redirector-esque role that SS got the track result from. I have asked Eek many times how he thinks this likely happened and he has yet to answer me.

Scenario #4: There is some fucking magical role that has never been seen before that can fuck with Feu to turn a visit on one person into a visit on two people

I'm not even fucking considering this, and anyone who is is trying to sell you something.

As far as Eek's 'bork obv is ignoring his 14v3v3 thing', well, no I'm fucking not. That's what I think the distribution is. I don't think Feu is a mafioso who killed and performed an ancillary action - Desp shot that down.

[borkjerfkin]

V/LA starting tonight at 4PM CDT until late Sunday night.

Will have my phone but will not be in any position to post, probably.

[My Milked Eek]

Descending order of likelihood for me:

Scenario #1: Feu is lying, Toog is lying, and Feu is a role that visited two targets, killing neither of them

Hey guess what: Eek's assertion that we 'know for a fact Feu shot someone' is not a fact at all. You know when it becomes fact? When Toog flips town. Feu could have visited two targets (not killing either of them) and if Feu is a bus driver (one of the most common two target roles AND one that would have a reason to visit ETL) someone on his team could have shot at Venmar, killing ETL and circumventing any possible protection on ETL. If Feu flips scum, Toog is demonstrably lying. None of this is remotely improbable. There are a ways Toog could have known what Feu was doing in advance - if there are two scum in my hood, and Toog is also scum, he knew about Feu's claim already, whether he was scum with or against Feu. It's wonderfully convenient this just happened on the night Feu had planned to shoot again.

Not to mention without the track, Toog and Feu's stuff is internally consistent and doesn't require anyone to necessarily be lying. This track threw a wrench into a plan.

This only makes sense if toog and feu are scum together. Are you saying that toog would bus his last buddy while claiming a redirecter (with a scum-like nerf)?

Scenario #2: Snowstorm is lying

Nuff said here pretty much - Feu didn't visit two targets. Toog could be either alignment here. I do believe snowstorm got the track result as no one has CCed PV giving it to them (could have gone to ETL but that's a huge risk for scum to take), but it's feasible he could have made up what was in it (although thinking of two targets would not be my first inclination as scum)

I don't feel snow is the one lying in our situation here. As you said, adding a second track to the mix is stupid. If he was scum he would've just shut up or told the truth or a different track (if he really wanted to lie).

Scenario #3: Someone fucked around with PV's track result, sending it to someone who did visit two people (that isn't toog)

This is, as I said, essentially equivalent to ignoring a cop guilty because 'there might be a framer'. It COULD have happened, yes. I don't see it as even close to the most likely outcome. Said person would have to know 1) PV was a tracker and 2) who he was tracking in order to make this really work. Top that with a claimed redirector that, while targeting Feu, doesn't explain the track result and now you have to posit that there is another redirector-esque role that SS got the track result from. I have asked Eek many times how he thinks this likely happened and he has yet to answer me.

The analogy doesn't really fit, despite your very hard efforts to make it fit. You do know you can't fit the cube through the circle hole, right? A cop-guilty is severely more simple than a tracker-redirecter-vig situation and isn't as straightforward as a cop getting a guilty. Nice try though, it actually feels you believe this yourself.

1) they don't need to have known PV was a tracker. They could have randomly picked people. Not to mention several people have already claimed VT and several others have claimed in their hood. From the top of my head a list of people who claimed before N3 (either in here or in there):
- mme
- etl
- feu
- ika
- snow

There were like 13 players left? I'm sure I'm missing other players who softed in their thread (molla I believe). So add scumbuddies to that list and you have a pool of 4-5 people who could have been the amnesiac tracker. Ignoring people like venmar, there's probably 3-4 people who could have been the tracker. It's still random, but the odds are way better than you would imagine. Clearly scum thought PV was a better nightkill than others, so why couldn't the other team have felt that PV's results could have been manipulated (or something similar to that?). Not to mention the possibilities of rolecops and stuff. This is not impossible to know/guess.

2) If they only need to jam the tracker it doesn't matter. Surely a role like framer doesn't need to

and

target the tracker/cop

and

target the tracker/cop's target? Stop saying the probability of this occuring (if this role is in here) is low. It isn't. And it's a distraction of the actual idea.

As for the last line, you haven't asked it "many times", don't exaggerate. It makes me think you're lying. And secondly, I don't know. How would I know what has happened? Not to mention any speculation I would make would be shot down, solely on the basis of it being speculation. But let's lynch feu. And then

you

can tell

me

what happened to the track result while I drink some of this fine "Je t'ai dit" wine of 2014.

Scenario #4: There is some fucking magical role that has never been seen before that can fuck with Feu to turn a visit on one person into a visit on two people

I'm not even fucking considering this, and anyone who is is trying to sell you something.

lol

As far as Eek's 'bork obv is ignoring his 14v3v3 thing', well, no I'm fucking not. That's what I think the distribution is. I don't think Feu is a mafioso who killed and performed an ancillary action - Desp shot that down.

Awesome. So feu and toog are scum together according to you? Are you willing to lynch toog first? Probably not.

[My Milked Eek]

But sure, let's lynch feu. Go for it. I tried my best at saving a townread. Do it. Get rid of the claimed vig in our hood after we got rid of the other claimed vig. Did you already tell the fine people in this thread that I thought S4TD was a vig as well? No?

Story time!

Night 2.
AP had just been lynched.
ETL had posited the idea that each hood had a vig during the previous day.
I said "hmmmmmmm".
I told everyone not to vote for a nightkill prediction and that I was going to wait until the very last moment to vote who I thought would die. (in my head I felt I knew who would be a vig that would have died)
ETL (I think...) said "fuck that" and they voted ika.
I voted bork in return and I told him that he would die because I picked up on a vig read on someone in the game thread.
He disagreed.
I said somebody would really kill him if they/she/he/it was a vig.
I believe he somewhat agreed.

> mfw S4TD (the person I thought (and hinted at) was a vig) died.