NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[mathcam]

Chill, ABR. I know it's annoying, but can we just wait for MBL to claim before we lynch me?

[Albert B. Rampage]

If he's coming back at all.

[Porochaz]

At the end of day 2, we see that he mainly goes against Vitamin R (look at post 1600 for the start of that), but never really does very much about it, his case is weak, see 1611 for details, the main point is that VitaminR is speaking from a scum perspective. There isn't actually any thought there, but it is a safe place to put a vote to be out of the way. Votes town Glork.

Day 3, his votes become a mess so bear with me, he goes back to his safe VitR vote, he alternates between that and his slightly more interesting mathcam vote for a while, he also places suspicion on Bookie at the same time but doesn't really do anything about it. If he was voting it would be at complete contrast to his day 1 behaviour but seeing as she didn't gain a vote at all out of it, when ABR is so vote happy well...

A reasonless vote then goes onto Sotty as soon as ABR's big suspect also votes Sotty. Why? Bandwagoning. With his scumread. Does that sound town?

I'll jump ahead to the vote on Bookie now. Because that was also pretty baseless (and lets face it, not going to happen), it makes no sense either.

I'll save you the trouble.

Bookitty is third towniest in DGB's list. I'm third scummiest. I'm town, so if DGB's system is worth a penny, that points to Bookitty scum.

For those that are interested. The vote lasts 7 hours.

Then he votes DGB. Which to be honest, Im avoiding, because I ain't got time for that.

Then there is the whole Sotty mason thing. You know the one where PJ very unsubtley hints that she is a mason, ABR ploughs on anyway. Then ABR suddenly thinks "maybe she's a mason". I mean it's not like 3 other people

including the confirmed mason

are already suggesting this. But hey, it means ABR can fall back on this post in future right, even though he is one of the major proponents of the wagon. And he does just that, 2431 (and again at 2495). 94 to 98, someone tell me that ABR's actions in any of that come from someone who is town. If your going to do one thing with my case, look at that!

I'm never going to vote CES. I'll die before I vote for CES. Yosarian is not going to get away with this.

I'm not voting mathcam because I'm not convinced that he's scum. I think that all (but maybe one?) of your remaining scum will be found among {MBL, UT, STD, CES, VitR}

Glork, this is for you buddy.

Unvote, vote CES

This amused me, but it highlights a point. Understandably reads change particularly day to day, but maybe with the exception of MBL, has ABR maintained an opinion on anyone? All I can see, and it gets worse the more you get into the game, is just a lot of changing reads like someone who has no idea what to think because quite simply he isn't.

Im trying to get through this quickly so day 4 in a nutshell, starts buddying up to DGB, makes this declaration -

I also believe Bookitty is completely town.

I'm greatly vindicated for defending DGB against conftown all game. It feels great.

Unvote, vote DGB

Sorry DGB. Chamber doesn't want you to live.

Unvote Yosarian, vote DGB

OGML, seems like there won't be any Yosarian wagons today.

I start out the day by voting mathcam, then he votes for me with flimsy half-baked characterizations, and then accuses me of OMGUS. He's caught. Lynch him.

Replace mathcam with DrippingGoofball and you with me and I'm wondering why you aren't voting DrippingGoofball instead of distracting from it.

It appears that you were right.

Unvote mathcam, vote DGB

She's too quick to abandon the previous bandwagon to add herself to mine. She's scum.

Day 5, after spending a lot of time going over who might be scum, abr abandons that, takes a more active role then lynches yos, town. However, he's still desperately trying to just fire himself around make himself what has effectively been unlynchable. He voted 14 times in day 5, for 5 different people. That's ridiculous! Thats not scumhunting, thats just voting for the sheer hell of it. It might give the appearance of scumhunting, but in the end, you've lynch 2 scum, you've had 4 previous days, surely at this point you have enough of an idea of what to do next? Or your pushing a little harder on potential suspects.

Day 6, he basically leads the town to a CDB lynch, also town.

And finally, day 7, I make a case, he doesn't do anything about it, but pushes the Mathcam lynch one step further. Despite the fact that even if he has decided to ignore me completely, we are still waiting for MBL for the massclaim. What's the town motivation for doing that right now?

Thats the case. We can't let ABR keep running this town. You guys need to be active in this. Please vote ABR. Or at least, tell me why I'm wrong. But I know I am not, and I am glad you have given me the time to tell you why.

Bookitty is next, I will do it in the next few days if there is time.

[Patrick]

If MBL doesn't pick up his prod soon, I'll have to start looking for a replacement.

[mathcam]

I'd rather keep MBL and assume he'll be back in a couple of days once he remember to check the site than start the replacement process, even if it takes a few more days.

In any case, I think it's time to move on. Obviously this is contingent on MBL's claim (and this discussion could therefore affect this), but my curiosity was piqued when I couldn't conclude who the vig was based off the two extra nightkills. There were people I thought might

plausibly

have committed one of the two vig-kills, but no one seemed likely to have done both. ABR was the closest, but he's claimed town. And in particular, I don't see a pro-town MBL offing GC last night. I'm therefore suspicious that our second kill is not a vig slot, but a mafia power role. This also fits my notion of balance for the game -- 5 out of 22 is about right for a completely vanilla (do people use the word "mountainous" any more?) game, but we've got 3 masons and a vanilla cop on our side. It does not seem implausible to me that scum might have a tad extra power as well.

(In fact, now that I've brought this up, I've become a little paranoid that it's still

possible

that there's 4 scum remaining, especially if they're vanilla, which would put us in lynch or lose...please be careful with getting bandwagons to half-mast).

So I'd like to hear discussion on this theory. And that, undo, is why I thought the reveal was so crucial. If we agree that the extra kills might be coming from scum, this is a potentially huge new source of information for us, and we can go back and use the two extra kills to see if we can deduce which potential mafia might have feared, e.g., GC the most.

The only other option I see is that a pro-town vig thought the massclaim was a bad idea and lied to the town to protect him/her-self. If that's the case, I think you've made a very bad play.

[mathcam]

Gotta say, poro's looking more pro-town than at any point in the game thus far.

Now I'm starting to get paranoid about 4 scum left. You

sure

you want your vote there, undo? If you're sure, fine. If not, it's not like you can't put it back later.

[VitaminR]

Eh,

Unvote

. I'm not sure I like this vote that much any more. mathcam is one of the only players who seems sincerely engaged with this game.

@Vitamin R:

Is your vote on mathcam primarily based on the two somewhat quick hammers? Do you have other reasons to think he's scum?

It was mainly PoE and the two quick hammers.

Agree that it seems worth waiting for MBL.

[SpyreX]

I'd rather keep MBL and assume he'll be back in a couple of days once he remember to check the site than start the replacement process, even if it takes a few more days.

In any case, I think it's time to move on. Obviously this is contingent on MBL's claim (and this discussion could therefore affect this), but my curiosity was piqued when I couldn't conclude who the vig was based off the two extra nightkills. There were people I thought might plausibly have committed one of the two vig-kills, but no one seemed likely to have done both. ABR was the closest, but he's claimed town. And in particular, I don't see a pro-town MBL offing GC last night. I'm therefore suspicious that our second kill is not a vig slot, but a mafia power role. This also fits my notion of balance for the game -- 5 out of 22 is about right for a completely vanilla (do people use the word "mountainous" any more?) game, but we've got 3 masons and a vanilla cop on our side. It does not seem implausible to me that scum might have a tad extra power as well.

(In fact, now that I've brought this up, I've become a little paranoid that it's still possible that there's 4 scum remaining, especially if they're vanilla, which would put us in lynch or lose...please be careful with getting bandwagons to half-mast).

So I'd like to hear discussion on this theory. And that, undo, is why I thought the reveal was so crucial. If we agree that the extra kills might be coming from scum, this is a potentially huge new source of information for us, and we can go back and use the two extra kills to see if we can deduce which potential mafia might have feared, e.g., GC the most.

The only other option I see is that a pro-town vig thought the massclaim was a bad idea and lied to the town to protect him/her-self. If that's the case, I think you've made a very bad play.

I don't even know where to begin.

I will eat every hat ever made in the history of haberdashery if its scum ability. I'd be more apt to believe bastard neutered SK or mod fiat before that kill being tied into scum.

I can't tell if poro's big post is faked or just disconnected. Either way I'm not a fan.

[mathcam]

So do you think MBL is the vig, or do you think townie vig is lying?

[Bookitty]

I'm therefore suspicious that our second kill is not a vig slot, but a mafia power role. This also fits my notion of balance for the game -- 5 out of 22 is about right for a completely vanilla (do people use the word "mountainous" any more?) game, but we've got 3 masons and a vanilla cop on our side. It does not seem implausible to me that scum might have a tad extra power as well.

(In fact, now that I've brought this up, I've become a little paranoid that it's still possible that there's 4 scum remaining, especially if they're vanilla, which would put us in lynch or lose...please be careful with getting bandwagons to half-mast).

It doesn't seem to me that these both are likely to be true. Six scum to start with would already be extra power. Giving them ... what, a multi-shot vig ability? would be way overpowered on the scum side.

Of the two scenarios, I'd be more likely to suspect the second. The first scenario seems really far-fetched to me.

Since we are likely to have a little time, though, I'm going to look at the {crashtextdummie and Untrod Tripod} kills and the {Sotty7-obvious-scum-kill and Green Crayons-other-kill} to see if I can see scum motivation for any of the CTD, UT and GC kills. If anyone else has time, they could do this too.

If I see town motivation, though, I'm not going to point it out and I'd ask that others not do so either. If we have a vig and they don't want to out themselves, they probably have more shots. So outing them involuntarily serves no good purpose imo. I was assuming 2-shot vig based on the limited kills, but I could be wrong on that. If they don't want to be basically conftown, I'll trust them.

[mathcam]

No, no, I wasn't suggesting that there would be 6

and

extra powers. But I think one or the other is not only more than reasonable, it's likely. If we have 5 vanilla scum (even with the possibility of a godfather, which is kind of silly in a game apparently without a true cop), don't you think they're completely underpowered against 17 town, including three masons, a vanilla cop, and a vig? Same question for you, Spyrex.

If we have a vig and they don't want to out themselves, they probably have more shots.

Because their shots have done us so much good thus far? Vigging GC was such a bad call I'm suspicious of the motivations. In any case, back in my day, you didn't lie to the town except in

extreme

circumstances. DGB lying about her role could have totally misfired, and I thought it was a bad play. I think the vig lying now, if that's what's really going on, is a bad play. If we decide that the extra information we get from knowing who the vig is outweights the merits of another vig kill (which have thus far been 2 out of 2 townies), then I don't think it's the vig's call to countermand us. Of course, if no buys the argument, my point is moot, but if there's any merit to what I'm saying, then a pro-town vig is endangering him/her-self, and thus the town, by carrying an increased risk of being lynched for previously lying to the town if/when he/she reveals him/herself.

Scum motivation for the GC kill is obvious, no? There was a wide collection of people who thought him obvtown. This is the same issue I ran in to with CTD/UT -- It's hard to know exactly, since we don't know who the vigkill was, but I didn't see anyone in the game still alive who I thought was so adamantly anti- either of those players to have performed a pro-town vig kill.

[chamber]

Knowledge of balance has changed considerably since you played regularly, I don't think 5/17 is unreasonable given our town powers. Much less unreasonable than 6/16 or 5/17 and them having a vig. It's entirely possible they have something like a rolecop.

[Porochaz]

I can't tell if poro's big post is faked or just disconnected. Either way I'm not a fan.

Did you even read it?

[Bookitty]

I think the vig lying now, if that's what's really going on, is a bad play. If we decide that the extra information we get from knowing who the vig is outweights the merits of another vig kill (which have thus far been 2 out of 2 townies), then I don't think it's the vig's call to countermand us. Of course, if no buys the argument, my point is moot, but if there's any merit to what I'm saying, then

a pro-town vig is endangering him/her-self, and thus the town, by carrying an increased risk of being lynched for previously lying to the town if/when he/she reveals him/herself.

I completely disagree with this part of what you have said.

Every town power role has the right and even the obligation to play to the best of his or her ability on behalf of town. It is absolutely that power role's right to do whatever they think is most likely to help us win.

If a vig still has further shots, he probably feels (and rightly, in my opinion) that saying no, I don't want to claim would out him. If he does out himself, he is going to be the kill tonight. That eliminates his usefulness to town. If he claims outright, there is the same scenario.

Also, you said this:

On the other hand, I'm not sure I could see a situation with two people claiming vig where we couldn't reason out the true claim from the fake one.

So how does that correlate with the bolded portion of the quote at the top of this post?

I thought GC was town, but I do not think that it was a universally held belief. I don't really want anyone to say so if they thought GC was scum, for reasons that should be obvious.

[chamber]

Just to be clear to the vig, even if s/he has extra shots, they should absolutely not be using them at this point. As such they have no reason not to claim.

[mathcam]

Okay. Due to lack of support, I retract my hypothesis.

Someone else propose something to do next.

[Porochaz]

Vote ABR.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Poro's post can be flushed down the toilet with the rest of his rancid comments.

The scum team is mathcam, VitaminR, and Bookitty.

[Porochaz]

Poro's post can be flushed down the toilet with the rest of his rancid comments.

That wasn't an entirely unexpected response to my post.

It also doesn't make you any less scummy.

[Bookitty]

@Patrick and everyone:

I will have limited access this weekend. I will try to check in when I have time, but I can't be sure when that will be. I should be back Monday though.

[mathcam]

ABR: In the past, you've seemed to find scummy anyone who has even slightly hinted that you might be scum (including, once, voting me because I did not defend you staunchly). How did porochaz managed to escape your wrath?

The scum team is mathcam, VitaminR, and Bookitty.

Are you going for shock value, or do you sincerely believe that's even remotely plausible? Haven't you been pro-BooKitty forlikeever?

[undo]

The scum team is mathcam, VitaminR, and Bookitty.

What's your case on Bookitty?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Gut

[mathcam]

BooKitty: What do you think about chamber's last post?

And what about the fact that an essentially-confirmed vigilante would mean one more townie's arguments we could be sure were town-oriented as we make our last vew lynching decisions?

I'm starting a major re-read. I'll keep you posted.

[mathcam]

Spyrex, you got anything beyond poro-hate? How about a possible scumteam?