NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Bookitty]

BooKitty: What do you think about chamber's last post?

And what about the fact that an essentially-confirmed vigilante would mean one more townie's arguments we could be sure were town-oriented as we make our last vew lynching decisions?

The answer to the first part is a little complicated. I remember JDodge reading us the riot act once for trying to direct the vig in a Pick Your Poison game. His argument went something like this:

• The vig is 100-percent town motivated.
  The players in the game are less than 100-percent town.
  Allowing the town to dictate to the vig introduces scum influence into their decisions.
  

So by telling the vig what to do (even to claim in this case) you're allowing scum influences to affect what could be a 100 percent town decision.

In general, though, I agree with chamber in part: if we lynch scum today, the vig shouldn't shoot tonight. If we don't, though, and your scenario of four remaining scum is right, then the vig shooting tonight may be our last best hope for survival to tomorrow.

If we do have four scum left, the vig claiming or not doesn't make any difference. I don't really feel like a six-person scum team is very likely, but I could be wrong. Additionally, if there is some mysterious scum-vig power, it doesn't help town for them to claim. It doesn't give us one more confirmed town and it doesn't narrow down our choices at all. I'm guessing (maybe hoping) that neither of these are true, though.

Mathcam, what is your read on Vitamin R?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I doubt we have 4 scum left.

[Porochaz]

This needs to get a kick up the ass.

There are a few things we need to get straight.

1. MBL for whatever reason is not here. Do we get him replaced? I don't particularly want him to be but at this point the game is stalling without him, how much more the game will stall with a replacement is also a problem.

2. Because of 1 we have all the information we are going to get from the massclaim. We need to move on.

3. People need to vote now. I recommend ABR, I have a case which he has poorly responded to. People, ie, chamber, spyreX, undo, bookie, vitaminR need to be doing something, whether thats agreeing with me, agreeing with ABR on mathcam or something else, can we get on with it? Hell if you want to pull my case to pieces (SpyreX, Im looking at you) do so.

It sucks that we are near the end of the game, and it seems like everyone with the exception of mathcam has decided to stop playing.

[Patrick]

Votecount

Albert B. Rampage (1) -- Porochaz
mathcam (2) -- Bookitty, Albert B. Rampage

Not voting: mathcam, undo, chamber, MrBuddyLee, SpyreX, VitaminR
9 alive, 5 to lynch.

I'm currently looking for an MBL replacement, since he still hasn't picked up his prod.

[MrBuddyLee]

Back!

[mathcam]

I'm very happy to see that, MBL.

I guess I'd like to ask you for a claim, but apparently these days that means "Claim if you want, or lie to the town if you think that would be better." So at the very least do that.

BooKitty: I see your points, but I'd say it's even more nuanced than that. If there's some possibility that the vig is a scum role (I know I've been shouted down on this, but it's not clear to me why it's so outrageous a suggestion that scum gets a couple of 1-shot kills), then some of that privilege about staying hidden has to go away, at least in a near-lynch-or-lose context. There's also the benefit that if the vig claims and we find the claim plausible, we can make heavy use of the knowledge of one extra fairly certified pro-town voice, not only for the value of not lynching the vig, but also by having increased faith in their suspsicions. It's also true that optimal vig actions, near the end of the game, are occasionally subtle to deduce, and not every vig is up to the task (this in regard to directing vig actions, not our particular claiming situation). But honestly, I guess I'm just most bothered by how cavalier it appears we've become about lying to the town. I'll let it go and end my tangential rant here, but I think it's a bit of a travesty.

I owe you (and me) a comment on VitR: I plan on really looking into him again, but the most lasting impression in my brain right now is the time several dozen pages ago where I remember being convinced that one of VitR-CES were scum, since I couldn't see both of them being town and buddying the way they were. If we can get that out of everyone, then even if we lynch wrong today (and there's three scum left), we may have a chance of picking much more informedly tomorrow.

3. People need to vote now. I recommend ABR, I have a case which he has poorly responded to. People, ie, chamber, spyreX, undo, bookie, vitaminR need to be doing something, whether thats agreeing with me, agreeing with ABR on mathcam or something else, can we get on with it? Hell if you want to pull my case to pieces (SpyreX, Im looking at you) do so.

I share your frustration with the pace -- to me, Day 1s are always a little painful, and it takes me a while to get up the energy to really care about what's going on. But near-lynch-or-lose? Come on, people! This is where the fun's at!

That said, I'm not sure "everyone vote now" is a good idea. I personally would really like people to put forward their candidates for the most-likely 3-person scum team. I think I've asked a couple of people to do this already, and have been summarily ignored. Putting together this list is a very hard thing for scum to do at this point in the game, since they have to make a very careful decision about how many scumbuddies to put in their list.

[mathcam]

I forgot the other major reason to ask for an honest vig claim, indeed a motivating reason for this claim: By claiming now when there's no lynch pressure, you take away the scum's ability to make that claim later, and possibly get the vig lynched. Or if there's an immediate counter-claim, then we get the luxury of debating who's the more likely vig without the pressure of a deadline or near-lynch scenario with 1/3 of the players being scum.

[Porochaz]

For me, ABR appears to me to be scum, but that's obvious, the case has been made and I'll stick to that. I hope MBL, once claimed, gets a chance to go through it. Going through the case I think there is a good chance that Bookie is scum along with him. The third one is more tough, I want to say SpyreX, but I get the feeling thats because he has been relatively antagonistic towards me for what I feel is little reasoning. However I want to hear more from chamber and VitR, because I can't remember there contributions to the game. But my suspicions on them aren't related to my case.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What's funny is that all the masons had me as town and now they're all dead.

[Porochaz]

How is that funny or interesting in any way?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Because your case is like a big toilet bowl and you're drowning in it?

[Porochaz]

Your points don't add up. My case has very little to do with the masons.

[mathcam]

The masons are not all dead, and have certainly not been infallible (nor consistent) in their reads.

[Albert B. Rampage]

It's hilariously bad, Porochaz.

[Albert B. Rampage]

It doesn't even make any sense that I would leave you alive during the night, and not pursue your lynch during the day. Do you realize how ridiculous you sound?

If you're tunnelling on me, I would either NK you or try to get you lynched, neither of which I've done.

[Porochaz]

I haven't been though. I'm not even doing that now.

Of course you are going to leave me alive, especially at night, I was following you up until today, and whats more it's a lot easier to go after CDB who isn't posting than to go after me.

That said I don't even believe you looked at my case.

And actually I was wrong about my case having little to do with the masons. (by the way I did look, PJ appears to see you as scummy, and Juls had you at neutral in her reads list.

You did out sotty in what was a really terrible set of posts. Incidentally, for the others, it was the one thing I asked if you were going to do anything with my case. 94 to 98, please read and tell me why you still think ABR is town (if you do).

[Albert B. Rampage]

Of course you are going to leave me alive, especially at night, I was following you up until today

That is such a blatant lie, I can't believe that you would say this in good faith. Die scum.

Unvote, vote Porochaz

[undo]

@Undo:

If your one vote could automatically lynch someone, who would it be? Also, did you and Sotty have a chance to discuss last night? Did she have any thoughts about who the remaining scum are?

Unfortunately we didn't discuss much. The only thing Sotty said was that mathcam should be our target today. "Back to back weak hammers", she said -- and I agree.

I know mathcam is arguably the most active player now, but I actually regard his enthusiasm as suspicious lol.

At this point I confess I can't townread anyone anymore.

[mathcam]

I've finished a semi-thorough reread. I'd like to hear from MLB first, then I'll spill my guts about my current theories.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote mathcam

[Bookitty]

At this point I confess I can't townread anyone anymore.

I'm not quite there yet. I still think chamber is townish, I think ABR is townish despite his suspicion of me. I'm on the fence about Porochaz, but I don't see why scum would go after ABR; there are plenty of easier targets. Pretty much anyone else could be scum; probably not MBL, but I want to know what's going on with him.

I am already voting mathcam, not so much for the hammers, but because I feel like he just goes with the flow and votes however the majority wants. The hammers are a symptom of that, but they aren't really the root cause of the problem. I'm also not crazy about the snarky comment about ABR coming in and saying he knew CDB was town all along; it doesn't sit right with me because voting for someone less-than-gladly to achieve a lynch (something ABR has done several times) is supposedly what mathcam was doing with those hammers too.

I would like to hear from MBL before we lynch anyone, though.

[Albert B. Rampage]

mathcam will assuredly flip scum.

[mathcam]

My, aren't you two buddy-buddy!

I think ABR is townish despite his suspicion of me.

Wow! Did you guys set this up overnight? That you were going to retcon an imaginary feud between you two? Look through ABR's page 3 of his posts. The number of times he's declared you 100% unquestionable town is off the charts. He throws you in

one

scumset of three people, at a time when a mafia victory is guaranteed after two wrong lynches, and now you're finding him townish "despite" these suspicions? How forgiving of you!

I'm also not crazy about the snarky comment about ABR coming in and saying he knew CDB was town all along; it doesn't sit right with me because voting for someone less-than-gladly to achieve a lynch (something ABR has done several times) is supposedly what mathcam was doing with those hammers too.

To be fair, you're apparently not a fan of any of my snarky comments. One can only imagine how much you'll like the previous paragraph!

I feel like he just goes with the flow and votes however the majority wants.

Only once a near-deadline consensus has been reached and there's no sense in delaying the inevitable. I think if you look through the logs I've been frequently advocating wagons that were not the town favorite.

I'm at L-2. If I'm the lynch for today, fine, but if you're town, at least let me post my final thoughts before dropping the hammer. I'm hoping MBL shows up soon, but I'll bypass him if necessary.

[mathcam]

Okay, forget MBL -- I'm going to bed and don't want to risk waking up to find I missed my chance. Here's what I've got:

I believe MBL and Spyrex to be town, for reasons I've enunciated previously. Yos once pointed out that I was being too open-minded in accepting remote scum possibilities into consideration, so I'm going to follow my gut and just ignore, for today, the possibility that either of them is scum. undo is town. I will treat myself as town for the sake of the argument below.

This leaves the set {chamber ABR poro VitR Boo} for the remaining scum. After doing a re-read, I believe I can eliminate a small number of pairs from being plausible. My list was Chamber-VitR, poro-ABR, and ABR-VitR, but I am willing to debate these (for discussion's sake, I would also eliminate ABR, poro, and Boo as possible mathcam-scum pairs). Very conveniently, this leaves only four possible three-person scum-teams:

1) {ABR Boo Chamber}
2) {VitR Boo poro}
3) {VitR Boo chamber}
4) {Boo chamber poro}

I went into this post (or at least, the work that went in to this post) sure I was going to vote VitR. But this list of four most likely scumteams leaves little room as to my best choice, as there's only one person on every single such team.

Vote: BooKitty.

It's just hard to imagine too many scumteams without her. Even if I delete the most borderline of the eliminated scumpairs, chamber-VitR, I'm only left with two additional pairings,

5) {chamber VitR poro}
6) {chamber VitR Boo}

one of which still has her on it. And if the scumteam turns out to be {chamber, VitR, poro}, then I'll take pride in my "clique" comment from earlier in the game and hope we can pursue one of them tomorrow. I have a couple of hesitancies with my vote -- one is that chamber is also on 5 out of the 6 teams listed, even though two of chamber's I find less likely. The other is that Boo hasn't done particularly much that's individually scummy, though I've disagreed with her plenty over the course of the game. I thought her "despite" comment about ABR felt a little forced, and is reminiscent of something she did with CES earlier in the game:

I think CES is town. (Yeah, I know he's voting me, which makes him wrong, but it doesn't make him scum.)

It just feels like somewhat awkward buddying. Still, the previous two versions of this post had me very confident about who I was voting for at the end of them (I had one where {ABR, Boo, VitR} was almost certainly scum, before I forgot that I had overlooked eliminating ABR-VitR}). I'm less enthusiastic about my BooKitty vote, but I think it's the town's best play.

undo

: I'm at L-2, and I'm strongly implicating players that are not currently voting for me. If you're interested in hearing this discussion get any airtime, you might want to consider temporarily unvoting. If not, at least I got the message out. I would appreciate your feedback.

ABR/Chamber/VitR/Poro/Boo

: I'm not sure who of you I'm talking to, but to those town among you, you're in the minority of that group, and need to try really hard to distinguish yourself as such.

MBL/Spyrex

: If you guys end up being anti-mathcam, then I can give up and die in peace. Just hurry up about it. Otherwise, I'm awash in a sea of people I'm potentially attacking (and the perentially anti-mathcam undo), and could use some support.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Cool can we lynch him now?