The Wire Season 1 Mafia: Baltimore Police and Omar Victory!

[ToastyToast]

Did Omar winning just kill everyone IRL or something?

[TheAdrienC]

It is a bit of a downer, yes.

[mastin2]

I'll do analysis at my own speed.

Will of course be keeping an eye on deadline.

Oh, I suppose that everyone's claimed at this stage aside from me, so I should get on that. One sec.

[mastin2]

Claim: Even-night tracker

.
I've 'crumbed it fairly heavily, but my N2 target was...Antihero. (The mod

said

he went nowhere; I called the mod a liar since he DID go somewhere: to the grave. ) Which is why my first post on D3 was saying I objectively suck. Hard to suck more than track the nightkill. I tracked Dan N4 to nowhere for what little that is worth. I can go into the various list of 'crumbs in my iso, but the earliest was here:

Needless to say, I feel we're getting off-track with the DGB wagon. And that if we want to get back in track, we need to give things a more even look.

Track. Even. Even track.

Furthermore?

My role PM has a specific clause in it which says that I'll be informed if my target visits nobody. But that carried the implication that it was put in the PM to clarify what would happen if I was blocked.

This is not only how I knew there was likely a roleblocker, but ALSO why I know that Adrien's 100% town. There is absolutely NO way Adrien manages to pick up on such a subtle 'crumb so early in the game and figure out my role as scum. There is NO way Adrien perfectly predicts the need for symmetry. There's also NO way that Adrien's actions make sense as a scum odd-night watcher.

[BBmolla]

Mastin I'm pretty content to just sheep you at this point.

[ActionDan]

So if you tracked me no where on N4 when there was 2 mafia alive, and if we are to believe Adrian (where did he catch your crumb btw?), and if one roleblocks and one kills, and I did neither n4. Do you get it. You have an effective clear on me. Further more we said that scum has a likely rolecop so scum ninja is out. (Well actually I suspect joat here with a shot of ninja rolecop and strongman). But also if that aint enough we know adrien was blocked n5 instead of you mastin the only other claimed non vt. So no ninja kill then.

What im getting at is being effectively cleared

[TheAdrienC]

I've been on a mafia team where there were two alive and the same one roleblocked and killed.

[ActionDan]

So have I. Its still possible its not the case here plus if scum has another active role which is suspected i wouldnt be that either. And even if not or they didn't use it, im not the guy who killed n4, meaning theres a better chance to lynch scum if you lynched someone else.

@mod. Does scum have double action privileges (to use an active ability and perform the factional kill at the same time)?

[mastin2]

So if you tracked me no where on N4 when there was 2 mafia alive, and if we are to believe Adrian (where did he catch your crumb btw?), and if one roleblocks and one kills, and I did neither n4. Do you get it. You have an effective clear on me. Further more we said that scum has a likely rolecop so scum ninja is out. (Well actually I suspect joat here with a shot of ninja rolecop and strongman). But also if that aint enough we know adrien was blocked n5 instead of you mastin the only other claimed non vt. So no ninja kill then.

What im getting at is being effectively cleared

You act like I haven't considered this.

I have, which is why I'm almost certainly going to be voting Messiah over you, today. I'll keep on thinking about things, running through my head probabilities. Obviously, I don't see myself getting a successful track out, but I'll be trying all the same tonight as well. If I live (no guarantee of that; basically, with a choice of killing me and Adrien, the scum are going to kill the person they think is least-likely to hand them the victory, and if there's ONE thing I'm good at, it's NOT doing that), all the more time to think it over.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not and he's probably not.

I don't really think MC is scum either.

That leaves a pool of you and BBm.

awesome

i'm not scum, though, and you apparently don't even think bb is scum, either

You have an effective clear on me. Further more we said that scum has a likely rolecop so scum ninja is out. (Well actually I suspect joat here with a shot of ninja rolecop and strongman). But also if that aint enough we know adrien was blocked n5 instead of you mastin the only other claimed non vt. So no ninja kill then.

What im getting at is being effectively cleared

that entirely depends on what the scum power is here

and since i'm highly doubting there's a full roleblocker + redirector in the game with town power as limited as it is, there's likely a limitation on the roleblocker and whatever the restriction is (whether x-shot or x-night or part of a JOAT role or something else), i'm doubting they used it N4 if mastin wasn't blocked

also think it's likely scum not interfering with or killing mastin means scum weren't really afraid of him

(also kinda funny that you're trying to clear yourself here in the same way i tried to clear myself in gif's game)

[mastin2]

also think it's likely scum not interfering with or killing mastin means scum weren't really afraid of her

They probably did N2 try to kill me via redirect.
It's POSSIBLE they did the same N3, but far, FAR less likely. (My reads were no better, maybe a bit worse.)
But this is one reason I want to take a VERY good look at my D4 reads to see why I WASN'T interfered with.

[zMuffinMan]

yeah i keep forgetting about the redirect

also thinking about the setup

the only real investigative power for town is the watcher/tracker combo, so if scum don't have a ninja, i'd be surprised

[zMuffinMan]

anyway

isos and stuff prob after lunch today when i have time

[ToastyToast]

@mod. Does scum have double action privileges (to use an active ability and perform the factional kill at the same time)?

Can't say

[ActionDan]

Cant fault a man for tryin to self clear. Can easily fault me fir not determining whuch 2 of bbm you Mc are scum but that's hard

[Xisiqomelir]

I'm against lynching Dan. There is zero scum motivation for persisting in a Miller claim now that there is obviously no cop. He'd be far better served claiming VT as scum.

That leaves a VT pool of molla, Messiah and Muffin, out of which I'd probably lynch Messiah first, but I want to re-read more.

I'm a little queasy about the way mastin is now willing to bump me up to town today as well.

[zMuffinMan]

.....

If AD had retracted his miller claim, he'd basically be autolynched

Not like he has a choice but to keep it up if he's scum

[Xisiqomelir]

@Messiah Complex: This is =22482&user_select[]=0&user_select[]=0&user_sort=Go]your ISO. The part I have a problem with is #85-87. Can whichever head was posting walk me through your thinking?

Also, what is your current opinion of TheAdrienC?

p.s.

Happy scumday

[Xisiqomelir]

EBWOP: Such url-post, so amaze.

Correct ISO link: http://[POSSIBLEtinyurlSPAM].com/pfkdppf

[Xisiqomelir]

.....

If AD had retracted his miller claim, he'd basically be autolynched

Not like he has a choice but to keep it up if he's scum

No one, town or scum can flipflop in claims and not expect rope.

What I mean is, the scum motivations for claiming miller pre-cop report would be:

1) To dodge investigations
2) To pull off a Disney Villains Mafia

I don't feel like this is what Dan is trying to pull off here.

[zMuffinMan]

I think he legitimately thought there was a cop in the game (or at least that it was a likelihood)

But anyone who thinks about the flavour of the game for like two seconds would realise a town cop in this setup makes absolutely no sense whatsoever

I think if he were actually a miller his first thought would be "lol red herring" since he seems to be at least a bit familiar with the flavour (familiar enough to know how little sense it makes)

So yes, I think poorly thought-out gambit (with maybe a little poorly thought-out setup spec) is the most likely scenario here

[mastin2]

For the record: since we PROBABLY have a lynch to spare, we can PROBABLY afford a mislynch, which means we can PROBABLY afford to policy-lynch the miller-with-no-cop in Dan.

But I'd kinda prefer we lynch scum, and while there IS a lot of evidence for Dan being scum, it runs the other way with a fair amount for why he could be town.

Messiah's probably going to be my preference once I stop slacking off.

[zMuffinMan]

it runs the other way with a fair amount for why he could be town

i'll eventually get around to doing ISOs myself but remind me to ask you about this

[ActionDan]

I think he legitimately thought there was a cop in the game (or at least that it was a likelihood)

But anyone who thinks about the flavour of the game for like two seconds would realise a town cop in this setup makes absolutely no sense whatsoever

I think if he were actually a miller his first thought would be "lol red herring" since he seems to be at least a bit familiar with the flavour (familiar enough to know how little sense it makes)

So yes, I think poorly thought-out gambit (with maybe a little poorly thought-out setup spec) is the most likely scenario here

K. Muffin much scum here. A stretch like this coming from him would be impossible otherwise.

1) vezok was in fact a doctor which doesnt fit flavor neatly at all
2) no one would ever come up with the conclusion that their miller role was a red herring D1.

[zMuffinMan]

. . . . .

i'm not saying roles have to 100% fit flavour, i'm saying a cop in a game where (literally) cops are scum makes absolutely no sense and if i received a miller role PM in this game the first thing i would think is lol-i-doubt-there's-even-a-cop

what i wouldn't do is assume cop in spite of all evidence to the contrary even later in the game (to the point of going, "oh, uh, shit, maybe there's a scum cop?")

also i'm going back over your ISO atm looking at your crumbs and the first place i can find you crumbing it was very late in D2 after everyone had posted (not D1, because hey, not everyone had posted then)