NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)


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Post Post #4350 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:32 am

Post by mathcam »

Okay, the fact remains that without Spyrex or a replacement here by the deadline, we need 5 out of 7 players for a lynch (7 because I'm excluding the lynchee). It seems unlikely that any of ABR, Spyrex, and MBL are going to be lynched today, which is also means that VitR's vote is of no use to us, effectively leaving us with 5 out of 6 required. So it's basically the case that
five of the six non-lynchees in {ABR, Boo, math, poro, MBL, chamber, undo} need to agree on lynchee from {Boo, math, poro, chamber, VitR}.


Nobody from that list has any votes except BooKitty, who conveniently happens to be one of the two people I'm most interested in voting for today.

Vote: BooKitty.


We need two of {MBL, chamber, undo} to join us, and barring any major shifts in attitude or compelling new cases, I just don't see any other conclusion to this day.

EBWOP: Tempted to not vote to spite ABR, but meh.
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Post Post #4351 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:41 am

Post by Bookitty »

In post 4350, mathcam wrote:Nobody from that list has any votes except BooKitty, who conveniently happens to be one of the two people I'm most interested in voting for today.


I am still voting you, so this is simply not true.
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Post Post #4352 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:54 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Unvote, vote VitaminR
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Post Post #4353 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:33 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 4346, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Porochaz is stubborn and dull, and wouldn't know scum if it sat on his nose, but he might actually be town.

He's voting Boo. He suspects mathcam. He agreed with you on OGML. Why are you criticizing him for having the same suspects you have?
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Post Post #4354 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:54 am

Post by mathcam »

ABR: What's going on? Are you just testing the waters to see who people will vote for? I'm not sure that's either wise or effective. MBL's question is very good too.

In post 4351, Bookitty wrote:
In post 4350, mathcam wrote:Nobody from that list has any votes except BooKitty, who conveniently happens to be one of the two people I'm most interested in voting for today.


I am still voting you, so this is simply not true.


You're right -- my apologies. I was writing that sentence from the perspective of justifying my vote.
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Post Post #4355 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:19 am

Post by Porochaz »

In post 4353, MrBuddyLee wrote:
In post 4346, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Porochaz is stubborn and dull, and wouldn't know scum if it sat on his nose, but he might actually be town.

He's voting Boo. He suspects mathcam. He agreed with you on OGML. Why are you criticizing him for having the same suspects you have?



Because I suspect him most of all.

Seriously has noone read my case.
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Post Post #4356 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:20 am

Post by Porochaz »

In post 4352, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Unvote, vote VitaminR


Noones voting VitR today, please revise.
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Post Post #4357 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:43 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

mathcam voted Bookitty too easily. He's scum with VitaminR and Bookitty will be re-evaluated after they are both lynched.
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Post Post #4358 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 6:13 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 4357, Albert B. Rampage wrote:mathcam voted Bookitty too easily.

At what point did you give up on reading the game, man?

Your style of play gives me hives.
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Post Post #4359 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:01 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

I said Yosarian was town, Juls decided to lynch him anyway.

OGML/CDB somehow flipped town.

I'm in a hurry to finish this game.
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Post Post #4360 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:08 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

I never stopped reading the game. I'm not going back to read though. 175 pages is too much. I'm just running on my memory.
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Post Post #4361 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:13 am

Post by Porochaz »

In post 4357, Albert B. Rampage wrote:mathcam voted Bookitty too easily. He's scum with VitaminR and Bookitty will be re-evaluated after they are both lynched.


Translation: Minor Reason found for not voting buddy. Vote someone else.

Cool.

vote ABR
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Post Post #4362 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:23 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

In post 4361, Porochaz wrote:
In post 4357, Albert B. Rampage wrote:mathcam voted Bookitty too easily. He's scum with VitaminR and Bookitty will be re-evaluated after they are both lynched.


Translation: Minor Reason found for not voting buddy. Vote someone else.

Cool.

vote ABR


Translation: Thin reason found for not voting for buddy. Vote for main tunnel again.
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Post Post #4363 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:43 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 4333, MrBuddyLee wrote:@chamber, do you think cam is scum?
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Post Post #4364 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:54 am

Post by Bookitty »

Do you think mathcam is scum, MBL?
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Post Post #4365 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:57 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

The way that mathcam voted Bookitty does not point to her as a buddy.
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Post Post #4366 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:25 am

Post by mathcam »

In post 4362, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
In post 4361, Porochaz wrote:
In post 4357, Albert B. Rampage wrote:mathcam voted Bookitty too easily. He's scum with VitaminR and Bookitty will be re-evaluated after they are both lynched.


Translation: Minor Reason found for not voting buddy. Vote someone else.

Cool.

vote ABR


Translation: Thin reason found for not voting for buddy. Vote for main tunnel again.


So let me get this straight. You both think that the other is scum with BooKitty, but neither of you are voting BooKitty? It seems like there's a particularly easy compromise there....
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Post Post #4367 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:26 am

Post by mathcam »

In post 4365, Albert B. Rampage wrote:The way that mathcam voted Bookitty does not point to her as a buddy.


That BooKitty and mathcam are not scumbuddies has been apparent for some time, imo.
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Post Post #4368 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:44 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

nope
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Post Post #4369 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:22 am

Post by Porochaz »

In post 4366, mathcam wrote:
In post 4362, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
In post 4361, Porochaz wrote:
In post 4357, Albert B. Rampage wrote:mathcam voted Bookitty too easily. He's scum with VitaminR and Bookitty will be re-evaluated after they are both lynched.


Translation: Minor Reason found for not voting buddy. Vote someone else.

Cool.

vote ABR


Translation: Thin reason found for not voting for buddy. Vote for main tunnel again.


So let me get this straight. You both think that the other is scum with BooKitty, but neither of you are voting BooKitty? It seems like there's a particularly easy compromise there....


Pretty happy to vote either at this stage, however I'm currently try to work out a way to make people read my case, the link between ABR and Bookie is there.
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Post Post #4370 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:35 am

Post by mathcam »

I've read your case, and I don't disagree. But BooKitty could be scum with almost literally anyone -- that can't be said of ABR.
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Post Post #4371 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:37 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

I'm up in the air on cam, Boo. He's felt a bit sneaky to me all game, and the best reason I had to NOT vote him was never all that good.. the fact that almost everyone has voted him at one point or another. And that LML seemed to act guilty when being caught FOSing him. Here are some interactions surrounding cam.. still processing these while I try to reach a conclusion.

His votes:
Boo, Albert, Glork(self-pres), DGB, UT, CES, Sotty, Poro, STD, Yos, CDB

He was "away" for the LML deadline.

He spent some time on Poro and ABR over the course of the game. If they're scum, cam's record looks better.

In 2893 on July 18th, he votes Poro while pointing to STD as a backup suspect:
cam wrote:Idunno about STD. I've been feeling pretty townly toward STD all game, but there's this possible {STD, Chamber, OGML, VitR, porochaz} scumteam that niggling at the back of my head. (Admittedly, OGML's posts have been making this feel less likely).


In 2960 on July 19th, switches to STD:
cam wrote:It's a more productive vote than my current one, though I'm still mystified that poro doesn't get any attention.

Albert and DGB had just voted STD in 2956 and 2957. Spy had voted STD in 2952. chamber was already voting STD and had just posted:
chamber wrote:Primarily the things that are convincing me to vote for STD are 2118, that CES had a scum read there, the 2 POE sets he's in both pointing to him and matchcam (at least from my pov), and yesterdays hammer.


PJ was leaning scum on DGB, VitR was leaning town on DGB and had mildly defended STD.

cam posted about his dilemma:
cam wrote:I'm constantly fluctuating between people who I think are acting not-particularly-townly and talking myself into thinking their probably town (DGB, porochaz, ABR, chamber), and people who I think are pretty towny looking and talking myself into being paranoid that I'm glossing over them (Yos, STD, GC).

cam's vote made it 5-5 STD-DGB which is somewhat significant. He did it in a post that announced a two week semi-VLA. Scum would do this if they smelled momentum and knew they needed to get on the wagon before missing their second lynch of scum in a row. Town would do this if their #1 suspect had no votes and their #2 suspect was in the running.


STD soft-defended mathcam against PJ's +1/-1 attacks. He asked cam for clarification on his DGB suspicions. In 1361, he attacked cam for casting suspicion on DGB without voting. I asked STD for a direct opinion, and this is what he gave:
In post 1438, Save The Dragons wrote:I don't have time to post much at the moment, but...

In post 1417, MrBuddyLee wrote:
@STD
, what do you think of mathcam?


I gave MafiaSSK a pretty clear townread for the fact that his wagon seemed to unnaturally build. The thought that an LML FOS of the slot while keeping his vote on Tigris recently crept into my mind as "maybe he's trying to keep pressure but not actually vote his partner." I'm not really sure if that's the case, but I have found most of the people who were on the wagon to lean more towards town, and the only stand out that I feel may not be town (PJ) was kind of the most innocent person on that wagon, since he was the first to chime in with the reasoning, and everyone else followed.

I feel like both MafiaSSK and mathcam could have fallen for the trap of "saying things that sound suspicious but in reality are not." For that reason, the wagon MafiaSSK, and the general nature of mathcam's posts I have considered the slot pro-town, but with that recent thought about LML not touching the wagon and with mathcam's recent posts about DGB, I want to reconsider that, so when I get a free moment I'll take a look at his ISO with a neutral mindset and see what I see.


1563 is a huge STD on mathcam post. It's fairly neutral and accurate and concludes:
STD wrote:So the truth is, I still want to lynch DGB. Doesn't look like that is happening.
Unvote


His case on porochaz is lacking. He makes a case on ABR, and explains some of his reads which are nice, but once again there's not really much of a case.

I'm not so sure that the posts suggest an oscillation of opinion towards DGB. It seems like you placed her in the "not sure" category at the beginning of the day. Your exchange with her does not imply you think she's suspicious for her actions, but I'm not sure if that means you're scum and she's town or if you're both scum or if you were just to exacerbated to post "FOS: DGB" or something.

VERDICT: I'd be willing to lynch mathcam.

tl;dr:
Vote: mathcam


Also in light of undo and PJ's claim a vote count would be nice, especially since I think my mathcam vote puts him close to danger.

PJ had just claimed. cam had just voted UT. CTD, CES, Albert, UT and Boo had just voted cam. Glork, Sotty and GC were dabbling on an MBL vote. STD took the opportunity to make an MBL post indicating willingness to lynch me.

vote count: cam(6) Glork(4) MBL, DGB, UT(2)

GC voted Glork to make it 6-5, DGB made it 7-5. Poro voted Glork to make it 7-6. cam made it 7-7. VitR defended cam strongly. Glork defends cam mildly.

At 7-7, Albert unvotes cam to make it 7-6 Glork. GC defends mathcam.

STD posts about cam in 1608. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5975333 You could read the post over and over trying to convince yourself either way.. is STD busing or trying to justify his vote on a townie? This feels a little bit like the latter:
STD wrote:I think the argument against mathcam is not 100% zomg confirmed scum but it's certainly good enough for now.


In 1654 on June 27th, STD unvotes cam and votes DGB, making it cam(6) Glork(5) DGB(1). A REAAAAAAALLY weird and notable move. You could probably WIFOM yourself to death on this one. Was he protecting a scumpartner, or did he see that the two major wagons were townies and decided to jump on a competing wagon so he wouldn't get caught lynching town?

Here's where people are chillin at this point:
Glork (6) -- undo, Kublai Khan, VitaminR, Porochaz, mathcam, Green Crayons
CrashTextDummie (1) -- SpyreX
undo (1) -- chamber
mathcam (7) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Sotty7, Glork
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Yosarian2
VitaminR (1) -- Albert B. Rampage
DrippingGoofball (2) -- Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly

The Glorkwagon has three townies on it and three unknown (VitR, Poro, cam).
Spy, Albert, Yos, PJ and chamber are in left field. Boo is our last unknown, and is on cam.

cam, Sotty and Poro switch to DGB. Yos and Albert switch to Glork. Now it's 6-6-5. CTD and UT switch off cam, and the cam wagon is effectively over. chamber hops on cam trying to rekindle it.
chamber wrote:Despite MBL's analysis leading to him concluding that cam was town, it reinforced my opinion that LML acted differently towards SSK on multiple occasions.

Glork 7, DGB 6, cam 5

Then DGB, chamber and CTD make the Glork lynch inevitable.

Thinking.
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Post Post #4372 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:42 am

Post by Bookitty »

In post 4366, mathcam wrote:So let me get this straight. You both think that the other is scum with BooKitty, but neither of you are voting BooKitty? It seems like there's a particularly easy compromise there....


That is not correct at all, to the extent that it seems like a deliberate misrepresentation.

Porochaz thinks ABR and I are scum together. That part is correct.

ABR thought that you (mathcam), VitaminR and I were scum together. To my knowledge, ABR still thinks Porochaz is probably town. He's not arguing and has not argued that I'm scum with Porochaz.

Are you not reading, or are you lying on purpose?
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Post Post #4373 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:50 pm

Post by Bookitty »

I did some checking and it seems to me that mathcam has been under suspicion pretty much throughout the game, but has been remarkably hard to lynch. I have tried just to hit the highlights to keep this as short as possible. If there's relevant information I've missed or if I've made any mistakes, I would really appreciate hearing it.

In post 114, Patrick wrote:MafiaSSK (5) --
Tigris, petroleumjelly
, Seol, Porochaz,
Green Crayons


LML-scum lynched.

In post 1057, Patrick wrote:DrippingGoofball (6) --
Untrod Tripod, Kublai Khan, Sotty7
,
Save the Dragons,
Porochaz,
petroleumjelly

mathcam (4) --
Cogito Ergo Sum
, Albert B. Rampage, chamber,
DrippingGoofball


A little later:

In post 1209, Patrick wrote:DrippingGoofball (7) --
Untrod Tripod, Kublai Khan, Sotty7
,
Save the Dragons,
Porochaz,
CrashTextdummie,
Albert B. Rampage
mathcam (2) --
Cogito Ergo Sum
, chamber


The emphasis shifts to lynching Undo (Mason) and mathcam disappears from the vote count candidates by .

Masons PJ and Undo claim.

In post 1575, Patrick wrote:mathcam (6) --
CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum
, Albert B. Rampage, Bookitty,
Untrod Tripod,
Save the Dragons


Wagon builds on Glork.

In post 1627, Patrick wrote:Glork (6) --
undo, Kublai Khan, petroleumjelly
, VitaminR, Porochaz, mathcam
mathcam (6) --
CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum
, Bookitty,
Untrod Tripod,
Save the Dragons
,
DrippingGoofball


Final vote count for that:

In post 1755, Patrick wrote:Glork (11) --
undo, Kublai Khan,
VitaminR,
Green Crayons, Yosarian2
, Albert B. Rampage,
Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball,
chamber,
CrashTextDummie,
mathcam
mathcam (3) --
Cogito Ergo Sum,
Bookitty,
Glork


A new day dawns:

In post 1954, Patrick wrote:mathcam (5) --
Cogito Ergo Sum,
Bookitty,
Green Crayons, DrippingGoofball,
Albert B. Rampage


By mathcam has vanished from the vote count again, but this one isn't so suspicious because STD is the leading vote getter in that vote count. No votes on mathcam when CES was lynched.

STD is lynched the next day. No votes on mathcam listed in the vote counts at all for that day.

In post 3569, Patrick wrote:mathcam (1) --
Sotty7


In post 3750, Patrick wrote:mathcam (1) --
Yosarian2


In post 3872, Patrick wrote:mathcam (2) --
Yosarian2, undo


Yosarian was lynched.

In post 4084, Patrick wrote:mathcam (1) --
undo


That's the single vote on mathcam all day that I can see.

CDB is lynched.

Today starts.

In post 4180, Patrick wrote:mathcam (2) -- VitaminR, Bookitty


VitaminR moves his vote off mathcam and on to ABR prior to leaving for vacation, though.

The fact that mathcam wagons just seem to dissolve while other wagons (Yos and Glork are two I definitely remember) gain traction and go the distance easily makes me feel even more sure that mathcam is scum.
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Post Post #4374 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:26 pm

Post by Patrick »

Sorry to hear about your real life situation SpyreX. Looking for a replacement now.
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