Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over

[acryon]

Like, functionally at this point, Acro is lynched and Phil is L-1.
Work from that perspective.

Come on people. This is so terrible. I really hope we don't lose as a town because you allowed someone to so easily try to dictate the game like this. It does seem like I am going to be lynched, but please get Thor next.

[Not_Mafia]

VC 3.11

Blair (0)-

Phillammon (3)-

Blair, Dyslexicon, Fink

(L-2)

shaddowez (0)-

Thor665 (1)-

acryon

droog (0)-

Fink (1)-

Pillammon

acryon (4)-

DCLXVI, droog, Thor665, shaddowez

(L-1)

Dyslexicon (0)-

DCLXVI (0)-

Not Voting (0)-

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-10-11 20:00:00)

- Oct 11th 19:00 GMT

[acryon]

Also, regarding hurting town's ability to make a reasoned decision, I feel like Thor deciding for people what they are doing is a good example of that.

[Phillammon]

As a matter of fact, I was actually about to say that I don't see Acryon as scum, and will *not* be hammering this one. I'm aware that the alternate wagon is my one, I'm just unconvinced by the arguments- while I'll admit several of my townreads are on the wagon, I'm pretty sure they're barking up the wrong tree.

[Fink]

Also, regarding hurting town's ability to make a reasoned decision, I feel like Thor deciding for people what they are doing is a good example of that.

I don't know, Thor's comment that the two most likely lynch candidates end up voting for each other seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Why do you think that comment is scummy, rather than just aggressive/presumptious?

If you want to affect the wagon you need to be talking to the people voting it, not the obv. votes that aren't placed yet.

I'm not terribly interested in defending Acryon, I think he's a perfectly reasonable lynch candidate. If anything, I'm hammer-curious myself. But his very reasonableness as a lynch candidate without any real

thing

defining that, and the speed with which his wagon took off are what worry me, and I think it's worth questioning him before he dies. I don't see why that's surprising at all. And getting his vote actually onto Phil would give others (you/Droog/adorable kitty roman numeral guy) some more leverage to also queston Phil. I think it's self-evident that talking to Acyron is the best use of my time right now.

1. I think it is non-impossible, but quite unlikely that a Thor wagon could gain momentum, but I do think it is worth keeping my vote to send the message that I am serious about thinking he is scum, and I don't want to let him off the hook.

That message is obvious. Why is that more important to you than applying pressure to pressurable people? What do you think voting for Thor is actually accomplishing if you die when Phil comes back?

2. I don't see how abstaining from voting for someone else hurts the town's ability to make a reasoned decision. If my vote were to go anywhere, it would go to Dys or Phil, but as I've implied, I'm less convinced that they are scum than I am of Thor as scum. I think keeping my vote on Thor benefits town more than switching to one of those others, for the reasons I answered in 1.

Your vote isn't applying any pressure to anyone. Thor is not shaking in his boots with fear that he's getting lynched today. If you always abstain until the last possible minute, it makes town react based on urgency rather than talking it through. Thoughts?

And while you're at it, why are you still talking about voting for Dys? What in the last few pages makes you think a vote there is going to do any good?

3. If people honestly don't see what I see, then the wagon makes sense I guess. They are wrong, and I certainly think there are better options for lynches to reveal information(Dys and Phil both fit that I think).

Who's the scummiest person on your wagon besides Thor?

If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?

If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?

[droog]

to wildly pick and choose

They are wrong, and I certainly think there are better options for lynches to reveal information(Dys and Phil both fit that I think).

so

you admit that lynches to reveal information can be good
but still maintain that votes should always be on your top suspect

there's a bad disconnect there

[Fink]

If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?

If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?

@ Acryon

To clarify, tell me what you think we would learn in either of those hypothetical flip situations. Don't just say Thor and Thor. Look away from the tunnel for a moment please.

[acryon]

Also, regarding hurting town's ability to make a reasoned decision, I feel like Thor deciding for people what they are doing is a good example of that.

I don't know, Thor's comment that the two most likely lynch candidates end up voting for each other seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Why do you think that comment is scummy, rather than just aggressive/presumptious?

It's not inherently scummy, but it is all about context and climate. I believe (whether anyone else does or not) that Thor is using his posts, as scum, to direct the town in the direction he wants. This posts of his, while not scummy in and of itself, shows Thor's grip on the town, even if he is just stating something that seems obvious. By proclaiming it the way he did, he is getting the town to accept this situation that benefits him. Even if there is a 90% chance of the situation he posed happening, by stating it in the way he did, he is trying to eliminate that 10% by convincing the town that it isn't there.

1. I think it is non-impossible, but quite unlikely that a Thor wagon could gain momentum, but I do think it is worth keeping my vote to send the message that I am serious about thinking he is scum, and I don't want to let him off the hook.

That message is obvious. Why is that more important to you than applying pressure to pressurable people? What do you think voting for Thor is actually accomplishing if you die when Phil comes back?

The pressure on Phil will still be there after I die; the pressure on Thor won't. If I die with my vote on Thor, then at least that will remain as something to be referenced. Moving my vote to Phil will only help add to a wagon that has plenty of momentum on its own.

2. I don't see how abstaining from voting for someone else hurts the town's ability to make a reasoned decision. If my vote were to go anywhere, it would go to Dys or Phil, but as I've implied, I'm less convinced that they are scum than I am of Thor as scum. I think keeping my vote on Thor benefits town more than switching to one of those others, for the reasons I answered in 1.

Your vote isn't applying any pressure to anyone. Thor is not shaking in his boots with fear that he's getting lynched today. If you always abstain until the last possible minute, it makes town react based on urgency rather than talking it through. Thoughts?

And while you're at it, why are you still talking about voting for Dys? What in the last few pages makes you think a vote there is going to do any good?

See my response just above this as to what I think my Thor vote is doing. I think you do make a good point, but my vote isn't for pressure right now. It is an intent-to-lynch vote which, although "useless" right now, will be beneficial for future pressure I think.

I just mentioned Dys and Phil as the two, because they are two that I have light scum-reads on. I think a Dys wagon could potentially get there, although there is a less of a chance at that than a Phil wagon.

3. If people honestly don't see what I see, then the wagon makes sense I guess. They are wrong, and I certainly think there are better options for lynches to reveal information(Dys and Phil both fit that I think).

Who's the scummiest person on your wagon besides Thor?

If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?

If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?

The scummiest person on my wagon besides Thor is probably DCLXVI. If Phil were to be lynched and flip scum, then our last scum is Thor. If he flips town, I think it's Thor and probably Dys or DCLXVI.

to wildly pick and choose

They are wrong, and I certainly think there are better options for lynches to reveal information(Dys and Phil both fit that I think).

so

you admit that lynches to reveal information can be good
but still maintain that votes should always be on your top suspect

there's a bad disconnect there

No, there is not a bad disconnect. And no, I did not admit that lynches to reveal information can be good. Information can be a positive outcome from a bad lynch, but it doesn't mean the lynch is/was good. I have and continue to believe that people should be voting for their top scum suspect, but I know that I am town, so I know that all you will gain from lynching me is the information that I am town. Given that your current lynch will gain my useless flip, there are better options than me. Call it picking the lesser of evils.

[acryon]

If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?

If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?

@ Acryon

To clarify, tell me what you think we would learn in either of those hypothetical flip situations. Don't just say Thor and Thor. Look away from the tunnel for a moment please.

I think I'm still happy with my answer that I gave, seeing this now, and I apologize if it isn't quite what you're looking for. I can't simply ignore the person I know is scum; that would just result in me giving bad information or shedding extra negative light on someone that deserves it less than Thor.

[DCLXVI]

unvote:acryon

Still very intent on lynching him, but I want to say some things first later this afternoon and I would prefer not to have a quicklynch.

[Fink]

@acryon

Okay, but what

information

do we gain from lynching Phil then? Those sound like the same information we might have now, just with some more certainty of wrongness on someone's part.

If we lynch Phil and he flips town, in what way does that make DCLXVI seem more likely scum?

[acryon]

@acryon

Okay, but what

information

do we gain from lynching Phil then? Those sound like the same information we might have now, just with some more certainty of wrongness on someone's part.

If we lynch Phil and he flips town, in what way does that make DCLXVI seem more likely scum?

Well the problem with me is that I have been tunneling pretty hard on Thor. It makes sense to me, because I am very confident he is scum. But when I flip town, the only thing you will get is that the dead townie really suspected Thor, and you already know that of me now. If Phil dies, at this point I'm not 100% sure what we get, as I haven't completely looked to connect the dots to be honest, but it is certainly more than zero, which is approximately what we get from killing me. Initial thoughts are Dys and Fink both look a little worse.

And it's not that I think Phil flipping town and DCLXVI being more scummy are directly correlated. It's more PoE at that point to me. DCLXVI is the most scummy after Thor, Dys, and Phil to me, so given Phil-town, by PoE, I think the remaining scum are Thor and either Dys or DCLXVI.

[DCLXVI]

@Acryon, can you explain your read on me please, and why/how it changed?

In the chance that I am getting lynched, my current reads are:
Blair - Lean-town
Phil - Lean-scum
Shadowz - Lean-town
Thor - Scum
droog - Town
Fink - Town
Dys - Lean-scum

DCLXVI - Town

The scummiest person on my wagon besides Thor is probably DCLXVI

. If Phil were to be lynched and flip scum, then our last scum is Thor. If he flips town, I think it's Thor and probably Dys or DCLXVI.

Can you explain this change from town -> scum in your read on me

Is this following quote the only reason, or was there more there that I was missing?

4. 465 and 467 by Droog is excellent posting, he just takes apart acroyn's argument.

Just reading through again. This is now the second person that has said this, except that I had an answer for his comments, and not a person has said how I am wrong at all in my responses (please, explain if you think I am or if my responses weren't correct). And no one ever even addressed the end of that exchange between me and droog. This casts extra suspicion on DCLXVI IMO, so if and when I am lynched, pay attention to that.

My extended thoughts on Acryon's "you must be voting your top scumread or you are scum" argument:

There are so many reasons for not voting your top suspect that Acryon's push on thor for allegedly doing so is completely and fully absurd.

I have and will continue to sometimes vote for players that aren't my top suspects. Potentially reasons include:

1. Probability of someone getting lynched
2. Wanted to put pressure on a scumread and force a response
3. As a way to point out someone that other people are not paying attention to (showing the seriousness of your read on someone)
4. Deadlines (Lynching is almost always better than not lynching in most setups)

And guess what, if you aren't voting the person you would have as your top suspect, what are you going to do? Keep putting pressure on them by talking about them...

The idea that Thor should be scum because he was voting one person and putting pressure on another is against just plain silly. I have a hard time believing that acryon actually believes it either.

[Fink]

my reasoning is, the more posts you make, the more likely you are to make a scumslip

@ DCLXVI, Droog, Acryon, Shaddowz, Thor

So what do you guys think of this earlier comment given Phil's recent play? It seems suspicious to me that he's playing with so little commentary, especially now that he's suspected. He seems to be minimizing his responses, or is this just in my imagination? He still hasn't moved his vote OR explained his vote on me. I think it all fits with my over-cautious scum explaination, given that he agrees that that is how scum should play?

@ Acryon: Don't you see how voting Phil to put him at L-1 could put more pressure on him here? It would give the others the ability to demand some real answers out of him. If you're going to keep voting Thor, how about you at least make a case on him, other than the not-taking-his-vote-off-wyguerts thing, which no one but you thinks is suspicious.

[acryon]

@Acryon, can you explain your read on me please, and why/how it changed?

In the chance that I am getting lynched, my current reads are:
Blair - Lean-town
Phil - Lean-scum
Shadowz - Lean-town
Thor - Scum
droog - Town
Fink - Town
Dys - Lean-scum

DCLXVI - Town

The scummiest person on my wagon besides Thor is probably DCLXVI

. If Phil were to be lynched and flip scum, then our last scum is Thor. If he flips town, I think it's Thor and probably Dys or DCLXVI.

Can you explain this change from town -> scum in your read on me

Is this following quote the only reason, or was there more there that I was missing?

4. 465 and 467 by Droog is excellent posting, he just takes apart acroyn's argument.

Just reading through again. This is now the second person that has said this, except that I had an answer for his comments, and not a person has said how I am wrong at all in my responses (please, explain if you think I am or if my responses weren't correct). And no one ever even addressed the end of that exchange between me and droog. This casts extra suspicion on DCLXVI IMO, so if and when I am lynched, pay attention to that.

To be fair, I said you were the scummiest person besides Thor on my wagon. You are still the 4th scummiest person I think, and not even very scummy. But I was asked who is most scummy on my wagon other than Thor, and neither Dys or Phil were on my wagon, so of droog, you, and Shadowz, I do think you are the scum

miest

, but that doesn't mean I feel strongly at all about you being scum.

My extended thoughts on Acryon's "you must be voting your top scumread or you are scum" argument:

There are so many reasons for not voting your top suspect that Acryon's push on thor for allegedly doing so is completely and fully absurd.

I have and will continue to sometimes vote for players that aren't my top suspects. Potentially reasons include:

1. Probability of someone getting lynched
2. Wanted to put pressure on a scumread and force a response
3. As a way to point out someone that other people are not paying attention to (showing the seriousness of your read on someone)
4. Deadlines (Lynching is almost always better than not lynching in most setups)

And guess what, if you aren't voting the person you would have as your top suspect, what are you going to do? Keep putting pressure on them by talking about them...

The idea that Thor should be scum because he was voting one person and putting pressure on another is against just plain silly. I have a hard time believing that acryon actually believes it either.

1. I still completely disagree. If the town has plenty of time, and I am placing an intent-to-lynch vote, it's on the person I think is most likely to be scum. It is completely illogical and bad play to do otherwise. As long as there is a non-zero chance of getting a wagon going, it is mathematically wrong to vote for the person that has a lesser chance of being scum. It just doesn't make sense.
2. I already addressed this. Votes are either intent-to-lynch or pressure, and Thor's vote on wgerts wasn't a pressure vote, so this doesn't apply.
3. This is basically the same as #2, pressure/awareness.
4. This was the caveat I mentioned.

[droog]

some of you guys have weird ideas about how to play mafia

[DCLXVI]

some of you guys have weird ideas about how to play mafia

Do you have something substantive to add... or do you just like egging people on?

[droog]

i like your pounce

everything ive wanted to say has been covered by 666 pretty well already

[acryon]

i like your pounce

everything ive wanted to say has been covered by 666 pretty well already

I went ahead and re-posted that conversation you asked for. Any thoughts?

[Fink]

So in my opinion Shaddowez had by far the scummiest jump onto the Acryon wagon. DCLXVI came into the game, read it, and placed a vote on a non-existant wagon that turned out to be pretty damn viable, that doesn't seem scummy to me at all. Thor has been jumping at the bit to get a lynchable wagon going (something I don't actually read as scummy coming from him right now) and has never had much read on Acryon. I have 0 difficulty believing Thor would see Acryon as a viable lynch candidate and a perfectly reasonable compromise. Droog had been catching up on the last several days and saying for a while he needed to reevaluate things, when he came back, he moved his vote based on the other two responses and preferring Acryon to Phil I think. Shaddowez just kind of came and tagged on to a rapidly rising wagon to put it into lynch range.

IMO Scummiest-> Towniest looking only at how votes were placed on the Acryon-wagon is Shaddowez > Droog > Thor > DCLXVI

I'm really surprised Acryon isn't looking at this sort of thing

at all

and it certainly brings me closer to wanting to hammer him. Especially given that Acryon had Shaddowez as only a lean town before, while DCLXVI was a straight up town read. Acryon seems completely disinterested in explaining this, he seems to have 0 interest in scumhunting, just in pushing his one target.

Also, Acryon, don't say it's "mathematically wrong" when you obviously aren't doing any math.

Spoiler: math example using numbers pulled out of my ass, because I'm annoyed at the phrase "mathematically wrong"

Let's say Thor has a 5% chance of getting lynched today (I think that's being generous.)
Let's say you are overconfident and think Thor has a 75% chance of voting scum.
Not counting yourself, assuming Thor is scum, there are 7 people left. Looking at your reads list, let's say you have no interest in voting for me or Droog, so there is 1 scum in 5 people if you assume Thor is scum. That means, even if your scum read on Phil were tied with Blair/DCLXVI/Shaddowez/Dys (i.e. I'm

seriously

underestimating this because you say he's your #2 scum read), that gives Phil a 20% chance of being scum to you.
So by voting for Thor, you have a ~4% chance of lynching scum.
Let's say you could vote for Phil and make it 50-50 that he gets lynched (it's probably a bit less than that, but you get my point, since if you're town, you know you are town and shouldn't desire that outocem.)
Then you'd have a 10% chance of lynching scum by voting Phil, accounting for him being town 80% and maybe not being lynched.
In this case, by not voting, you're making it LESS likely that your scum reads will be lynched, since presumably you have yourself as a town read.

IT IS MATHEMATICALLY REASONABLE TO VOTE FOR YOUR LESSER SCUM READ.

Okay, so that math example was probably pointless, but GRRRRRRRR

[DCLXVI]

Unless I'm counting wrong (and I really hope I'm not), Acryon has 3 votes on him, which puts him at L-2.

VOTE: acryon

That makes it L-1. Please don't hammer him until he's come back from his V/LA and has time to respond to the most recent posts.

Why acryon instead of phil? You have both of them listed as suspects and bother were L-2 when you put that vote down?

[Fink]

Correction: In the math example "Thor voting scum" should be "Thor being scum."

[droog]

i like your pounce

everything ive wanted to say has been covered by 666 pretty well already

I went ahead and re-posted that conversation you asked for. Any thoughts?

seeing your thought process explained
1) i still think its naively wronng
2) i sympathize with it more which means im leaning more town on you

not enough of a shift to make me think you arent the best lynch option righ

wait

if we dont have mafia nightkills
why are we constrained by deadlines at all

[droog]

shaddowez is probably also topping my scum lists at the moment
most everyone eles is making fair town impressions on me

[acryon]

So in my opinion Shaddowez had by far the scummiest jump onto the Acryon wagon. DCLXVI came into the game, read it, and placed a vote on a non-existant wagon that turned out to be pretty damn viable, that doesn't seem scummy to me at all. Thor has been jumping at the bit to get a lynchable wagon going (something I don't actually read as scummy coming from him right now) and has never had much read on Acryon. I have 0 difficulty believing Thor would see Acryon as a viable lynch candidate and a perfectly reasonable compromise. Droog had been catching up on the last several days and saying for a while he needed to reevaluate things, when he came back, he moved his vote based on the other two responses and preferring Acryon to Phil I think. Shaddowez just kind of came and tagged on to a rapidly rising wagon to put it into lynch range.

IMO Scummiest-> Towniest looking only at how votes were placed on the Acryon-wagon is Shaddowez > Droog > Thor > DCLXVI

I'm really surprised Acryon isn't looking at this sort of thing

at all

and it certainly brings me closer to wanting to hammer him. Especially given that Acryon had Shaddowez as only a lean town before, while DCLXVI was a straight up town read. Acryon seems completely disinterested in explaining this, he seems to have 0 interest in scumhunting, just in pushing his one target.

Also, Acryon, don't say it's "mathematically wrong" when you obviously aren't doing any math.

Spoiler: math example using numbers pulled out of my ass, because I'm annoyed at the phrase "mathematically wrong"

Let's say Thor has a 5% chance of getting lynched today (I think that's being generous.)
Let's say you are overconfident and think Thor has a 75% chance of voting scum.
Not counting yourself, assuming Thor is scum, there are 7 people left. Looking at your reads list, let's say you have no interest in voting for me or Droog, so there is 1 scum in 5 people if you assume Thor is scum. That means, even if your scum read on Phil were tied with Blair/DCLXVI/Shaddowez/Dys (i.e. I'm

seriously

underestimating this because you say he's your #2 scum read), that gives Phil a 20% chance of being scum to you.
So by voting for Thor, you have a ~4% chance of lynching scum.
Let's say you could vote for Phil and make it 50-50 that he gets lynched (it's probably a bit less than that, but you get my point, since if you're town, you know you are town and shouldn't desire that outocem.)
Then you'd have a 10% chance of lynching scum by voting Phil, accounting for him being town 80% and maybe not being lynched.
In this case, by not voting, you're making it LESS likely that your scum reads will be lynched, since presumably you have yourself as a town read.

IT IS MATHEMATICALLY REASONABLE TO VOTE FOR YOUR LESSER SCUM READ.

Okay, so that math example was probably pointless, but GRRRRRRRR

But that math is wrong, and you're over complicating things. I'm talking about personal choice, which is of course based on probabilities you (somewhat arbitrarily) assign to your feelings, so it is as simple as I think Thor has a 90% chance of being scum, which is greater than Dys/Phil who have, let's say 40% chance. The most simplistic comparative mathematics, but still math, so relax.

Shadowz may have had the scummiest jump on my wagon, but I don't think, overall, that his slot is more scummy than DCLXVI. There is more to it than just why each of them is on my wagon.