Mini 1610 - House M.D. Mafia! (Day 5!)

[ika]

is is funny i agree with your assestment on who scum is?

also wanna bet that the entire DDD lynch was a full on town wagon?

[ika]

i want rouge lynch first though

VOTE: rouge

[Kthxbye]

why? convince me.

[ika]

Rogue looks like scum based off VCA.

^using your own reason.

[Kthxbye]

and I DID say there was a connection with Jingle yesterday. Maybe they chose to kill off Beck instead of me thinking I'd do exactly what I came in and did....hmm...

Okay, we can travel this road I think.

VOTE: rogue

[Albert B. Rampage]

ika and Jingle are scum, kthx. Trust me on this.

Vote: ika

[Albert B. Rampage]

kthx did you diagnose Wolfy?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I take 1030 back. I don't want to be premature, there's still a lot of room for error.

My strong townreads are, in no particular order, MC Maraca , Rogue, kthx.

That leaves Wolfy, Anatole, Jingle, ika and shadowez. I'll be focusing my attention on these players.

[Albert B. Rampage]

My threat assessment leaves Wolfy ahead of the pack by large margin. There are several indicators that I looked for to arrive at this conclusion.

Reads - for what it's worth because there's little reasoning behind it - it'm mostly accumulated gut ...
I start the day with a 75% town read on everybody and a 25% scum read.
Nobody has crossed the 50% line yet.

Beck: town
MC Maraca: null
Bert: town
Debonair Danny DiPietro: leaning town

now

- was leaning scum for a long time
Rogue: null/scum - I really have not got a clue with hydras on Day 1 (maybe not on other days either)
Albert B. Rampage: town
Brian Skies: null
Anatole Kuragin: null with a slight scum lean
MantisDreamz: null with a slight scum lean
Jingle: leaning scum
Kthxbye: town
Shaddowez: null with a slight scum lean

UNVOTE:

will ISO my slights and vote later.

VOTE: Mantis
Bert looks more town to me
when is the exact deadline?

I’ve gathered that Wolfy is more attuned to seeing town players than scum players. He had no definitive scum reads, contrary to the majority of the other players, and places his vote on mantis that he specifically mentions is based on his town read on Bert, instead of his earlier reads list where he offers mantis as a slight scum lean. He’s justifying his vote on the bandwagon by claiming the other person being wagoned is town. Who then turns up dead the next day. Now we don’t know if Bert was a vig kill, due to the different flavor (prison vs. death), but it’s possible that Bert was targeted by both a vig and the mafia, in the absence of a second death on Day 2. I’ll end any speculation and tell you that I didn’t kill Bert or anything, so there’s still a possibility that each scum member have a different kill flavor, or that the mod felt creative. In any case, we can note that Wolfy, despite not saying much, or being as deeply involved in the game as myself, Anatole, ika, Beck, etc., has some strangely accurate insight into the game. He’s barely active and he has that good a read on the game? I don’t buy it. We can also see that the only read reversal, or significant change in Wolfy’s reads so far, is the one on DDD, which I will come back to.

I am playing differently - mostly because I have less time but also partly to do with my previous town play being read as scummy by

some people

. [cough]
Time should be coming back later this week.
I've not seen enough from DDD to back off my vote and unless there's a solid believable claim I can't see it happening.

Now look at how strange the reversal previously quoted has been, compared to this post, who came only a few pages before. Wolfy echoed my demands for a believable claim, but reverses his reads on DDD after I unvote him. I interpret this as him surreptitiously distancing himself from the DDD wagon, now that saving DDD has become an option.

Better to let the disease ravage Wolfy and to die that way rather than using our lynch there.

scum motivated methinks.
you must already know what the disease is, how I got it and who gave it to me - otherwise you'd be trying to find out.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: DDD

This day 2 piece of evidence appears to be a continuation of the cross-bussing plan we’ve seen happen on Day 1. Wolfy went after DDD Day 1, and now DDD is coming after Wolfy on Day 2, not by voting him, but by asking people to let him die. Which we know that, if the scum have diagnosticians as most of us minus kthx suspect they do, could easily save Wolfy with private actions while vocally asking town to let him die. Wolfy wasn’t high on the townie list, but he was diagnosed pretty quickly. That’s why I asked kthx if he used his ability on Wolfy.

There was absolutely nothing reasonable about Wolfy's questions; somehow the best thing that can be said about them is that they're irrelevant but it's an awful post from

a player who did nothing yesterday

. And I'm not going to suddenly town read

one of my top two scum reads

just because one of them made mean sounds about the other, especially after scum have had a night to plan.

So I did nothing yesterday and that makes me one of your top two scum reads.
And "awful post" is really funny given most of yours.

Your logic for not claiming is flawed if you are town.

DDD realizes that his bandwagon will spring back up again, again and again, and that his days are numbered. More bussing to make his buddy look good.

Do you have any abilities?

Yes, I have an ability. I used it last night.
I would deem it a minor ability at this stage in the game but it could be significant further on.

Since I'm not up for lynch and I've probably got at least 24 hours of RL left from my disease, I won't say now.

And that's my 3rd and final post today.

[post 3]

It’s my opinion that a town person would be more paranoid and forthcoming to reveal information that they have in the face of death such as the situation Wolfy was in. If I were him, and I think the majority of players would do the same, I would have full claimed and hoped for the diagnosticians to help me.
Instead, what he does is interesting. He claims a power role, refuses to say what power exactly, and flavor claims. Which means that he didn’t expect to die from the illness, or else he would have full claimed, but he didn’t expect to die at night either, which is why he claimed the ability part. If I’m a townie, and I’m confident I’m going to survive an illness, I would refrain from mentioning anything about an ability that I have, for fear of being killed at night. Even if my ability was one-shot, if I died, it would deprive the town of valuable information. He mentioned himself that his ability may be of importance later in the game. I think that all evidence points to this being a lie.
Conclusion:

Wolfy is scum, for the following reasons:
-An unlikely combination of low activity mixed with accurate early reads
-Night kill analysis
-A scummy reversal on DDD
-A likely cross-bussing scenario with DDD
-An unlikely expectation to survive the illness and survive the nightkill

[ika]

lol arb, keep being the same tryhard but your stilll wrong on me

[Albert B. Rampage]

I think it's probably Jingle and Wolfy. You're not who I think is scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

In fact, let's vote Wolfy together. I don't want you to hammer prematurely again. I wanted to see what weak claim DDD would have came up with in that 30 minutes.

Unvote, vote Wolfy

[Albert B. Rampage]

This post is intended for Anatole and ika.

I can't arrive at accurate reads below a certain threshold of evidence, usually built over weeks of discussion, pressure, and bandwagoning, most of the time of town, because there are more town than scum. If I was right on who was scum based on few pages and little discussion, that would luck doing the work, not my scumhunting skill built over 7 years of doing this. Don't be offended that I voted you and pressured you, it's part of my investigative process. There isn't anyone with a perfect record, but we can approach this game with careful observation and skill to outperform our opposition.

[Anatole Kuragin]

Good call on DDD. I'll admit my skepticism was colored a bit by the fact you thought I was scum too.

[Albert B. Rampage]

ABR doesn't look like the scum on the DDD wagon to me. Kthx is scum hopping onto that wagon. Wolfy might be.

Based on posts by Jingle thus far, he should vote for Wolfy with us. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[Anatole Kuragin]

ABR have you ever bussed a teammate out of the blue for a lynch early in the game and rode the towncred to lylo?

[Wolfy]

Conclusion:

Wolfy is scum, for the following reasons:
-An unlikely combination of low activity mixed with accurate early reads
-Night kill analysis
-A scummy reversal on DDD
-A likely cross-bussing scenario with DDD
-An unlikely expectation to survive the illness and survive the nightkill

I had DDD pegged from early on. Where was the scummy reversal? If I switched votes off him it was because the wagon wasn't going anywhere. I always wanted to lynch him.

Explain unlikely expectation to survive the illness? Where did that come from?
I thought I was going to die because nobody was trying to diagnose me.
My only expectation was to still be alive 24 hours later to post another 3 times given the progression rate that the mod had been previously using.
I had zero expectation of surviving the night kill - where did you get that bit from? I expected to die because i had claimed a weak PR.

I'm looking at Jingle as my number 1 scum read at the moment. Need to do a re-read but that's likely where my vote will go.

[Albert B. Rampage]

ABR have you ever bussed a teammate out of the blue for a lynch early in the game and rode the towncred to lylo?

Yes. Not here, though.

Conclusion:

Wolfy is scum, for the following reasons:
-An unlikely combination of low activity mixed with accurate early reads
-Night kill analysis
-A scummy reversal on DDD
-A likely cross-bussing scenario with DDD
-An unlikely expectation to survive the illness and survive the nightkill

I had DDD pegged from early on. Where was the scummy reversal? If I switched votes off him it was because the wagon wasn't going anywhere. I always wanted to lynch him.

Explain unlikely expectation to survive the illness? Where did that come from?
I thought I was going to die because nobody was trying to diagnose me.
My only expectation was to still be alive 24 hours later to post another 3 times given the progression rate that the mod had been previously using.
I had zero expectation of surviving the night kill - where did you get that bit from? I expected to die because i had claimed a weak PR.

I'm looking at Jingle as my number 1 scum read at the moment. Need to do a re-read but that's likely where my vote will go.

Please full claim your ability and actions.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Your justification for the illness is plausible, however, in your shoes I would have full claimed as my last post of that day just in case.

The reversal is here:

Debonair Danny DiPietro: leaning town now - was leaning scum for a long time

[Albert B. Rampage]

Wolfy, you posted this:

Do you have any abilities?

Yes, I have an ability. I used it last night.
I would deem it a minor ability at this stage in the game but it could be significant further on.

And you never returned to it, despite posting at the end of yesterday, after your post restriction ended.

This makes me believe that you fully believed you were going to survive the night.

Or else, you would have revealed the information you had. If you were town, you would have the threat of NK on your mind, and not leave us hanging. This doesn't appear to be the case here.

[Wolfy]

Wolfy, you posted this:

Do you have any abilities?

Yes, I have an ability. I used it last night.
I would deem it a minor ability at this stage in the game but it could be significant further on.

And you never returned to it, despite posting at the end of yesterday, after your post restriction ended.

This makes me believe that you fully believed you were going to survive the night.

Or else, you would have revealed the information you had. If you were town, you would have the threat of NK on your mind, and not leave us hanging. This doesn't appear to be the case here.

I expected to die and my ability would have been revealed to all anyway.
If consensus, not just albert, is that I reveal now I will.

[Rogue]

See;

I wouldn't mind being lynched because I'm not actually invested in the game and nor is Notty.

I don't mind the Beck kill because he was pissing me off all last day.

There's probably a busser on the DDD wagon. Off the top of my head I want to say Wolfy, but that's because I think his vote looks like a votepark vote than anything else.

Considering there was not two kills, either one was blocked or someone chose not to shoot. Could be either or.

ABR explain to me why Ika is scum? I was leaning slighty town tbh. Kkthx is town, but is wrong about the conclusions of the VCA.

Shaddowez might be scum.

VOTE: Shaddowez

Going to place that for now. Might be back on wednesday at the latest.

~R

Yes wifi go fuck yourselves. I hate that you drop me every 2 minutes

[Albert B. Rampage]

Rogue, could you post your thoughts after you finished getting up to speed?

[Albert B. Rampage]

You clearly missed the part where I said that my suspect is Wolfy, not ika.

[ika]

im statrting to suspect wolf/rouge team if its not jingle