Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over

[Not_Mafia]

Hammer

Bicephalous Bob

was

lynched

day 4, they were a

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie

[Not_Mafia]

VC 5.00

Phillammon (0)-

Shaddowez (0)-

Thor665 (0)-

droog (0)-

Fink (0)-

Dyslexicon (0)-

Bert (0)-

Not Voting (7)-

Phillammon, Shaddowez, Thor665, droog, Fink, Dyslexicon, Bert

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-11-06 22:00:00)

- Nov 6th 22:00 GMT

[Fink]

Bicephalous Bob (5)- Thor665, droog, Phillammon, Dyslexicon, Fink LYNCHED
Phillammon (3)- Shaddowez, Bicephalous Bob, Bert (L-2)

Okay, so I'm going to reread some of the early day stuff with the knowledge that Blair was town for sure. Given how little of the game he apparently read, I'm not sure there's much to gain from Bob other than the weak Thor case none of us liked, but Blair gives a different perspective than the one we collectively lynched; I think she's worth some rereads.

I have a hard time believing scumShaddowez would have come in and almost derailed a wagon on town like that, even if Phil flips town too, Shaddowez couldn't have known that it wouldn't have ended up somewhere else. So this lynch moves Shaddowez back to a townread for me.

We need to see more from Bert, Fokem was absent, Bins contributed nothing of substance, DCXVIwhatever came in towny and went out scummy, and Bert has done basically nothing. I'm not sure how I feel about him. A bit more input please!

I don't think Thor would have tunneled so long and hard as scum on just the one player, for weeks on end, but I'm not really sure, I think that merits some looking into. I'll try to find something, but any thoughts from you Bert?

For now I still think Thor is likely town.

Dys' absence gives me cause to doubt her now, but I still find her reasoning overall townish.

So my scumreads are Phil and Droog still.

More later, but for now I'll do what I do best and...
VOTE: Phil

[Fink]

Assuming they're both scum, I think a Phil flip gives us more information than a Droog flip, we've had voting on Phil happen on two different days and a lot of opinions on it (and in my opinion a lot of

ignoring

opinions on it.)

If only one of the two is scum, I find Phil scummier plus I think he works with potential scum pairs other than Droog (i.e. Bert-Phil makes a lot of sense to me. And Thor-Phil actually.)

In the unlikely event that Phil and Droog are both town, I think Phil

still

provides more information, again more people have reacted to him

So I think Phil is the superior lynch of my scumreads, but Droog and Bert are also in the pool. I'm going to go find some Thor scumgames to assuage or feed my paranoia. Then hopefully a reread of Blair before the day is out.

[Thor665]

Vote: Shaddowez

[Thor665]

(i.e. Bert-Phil makes a lot of sense to me. And Thor-Phil actually.)

Thor-Phil does not make much sense at all - I tend to bus or buddy, I don't tend to vague soft defend.

I'm going to go find some Thor scumgames to assuage or feed my paranoia.

Judging by all past experiences - paranoia awaits you. Sorry about that.

[Fink]

So this is not my week with computers. Had 3 scumgames open and was looking through them and it caused a kernel panic on my gf's computer (which I am borrowing but can't borrow tomorrow.)

I did see something in the postgame commentary of one along the lines of "I just steamrolled after you hard because I knew you were a weak player and no one would stick up for you." but I also seem to remember this behavior in a town Thor game I was looking at before. So given what Thor said above, let's just call it null, Thor would relentlessly go after a player he thinks is weak/scummy regardless of alignment. Do you agree with that Thor? (I'll probably end up refinding these and reading some at a later date, but I think I want to get looking at Blair's ISO)

@Thor: So why'd you vote for Shaddowez?

[Thor665]

Do you agree with that Thor?

As town I go after players I think look scummy.
As scum I look for things I would call scumtells and pursue them. I have always said that the best scum strategy is to be aware that town mislynch all the time, and don't get too married to the idea that, as town, you would be more 'right' because...well...no, you probably wouldn't.
People have long said I have a difficult to spot scum game and I have won awards and noms for scum performances moreso than town performances.
There's a reason I have a writeup in my wiki about scumspecting me.

@Thor: So why'd you vote for Shaddowez?

Because I think he is an appropriate mix of scum and null to explore/lynch today.

By my accounting we have, what, three more lynches to manage to hit at least one scum with?
Why not start with a guy I have no real read on of late?

[Fink]

Actually Thor's logic is pretty good. I'm still really into lynching Phil, but reading Blair's ISO isn't doing much for me. Blair vs. Thor does seem reasonably likely to be town-on-town. I don't like Phil's coming in with the whole "attacking the man" thing when Blair called Thor's argument illogical, reigniting some tensions that were diffusing and wasting even more time after it was becoming obnoxious.

But I'm not going to sell anyone new with that. I still want to lynch Phil, but I like the idea of trying to gain more information. But I townread Shaddowez, so I want to present an alternative to Thor's Shaddowez wagon:

VOTE: Bert

Reasons to follow momentarily.

[Fink]

So here's what Bert's slot had to say immediately before and after the Acryon lynch.

Hammer away. There is a lot I've been holding off on saying until after this lynch.

Referring to my asking him why he was waiting.

I assure you that my reasons are completely reasonable and I reason that they have been thought through for reasonably significant amount of time.

I'd like to see DCL address the wagon and the results.

That's been my plan.

Phil is town and lynching him is an absolutely terrible idea.

On lunch break now, I can explain more fully if necessary this evening.

And he finally explains his reasons:

@Fink,

my reasons were that I was not going to take the time to make a full list of reads when Acryon's flip would have a major effect on most of them.

I'm lazy that way. It's also a lot easier for me to form reads on players while I am playing with them rather than 25 pages of posts. When I replace in I do put more weight on what is happening while I am playing as opposed to what happened early in the game.

It wasn't that I didn't have thoughts on pretty much everyone, I did, I just didn't see the value in sharing them at that point in time. I did share the one's that I believed were necessary.

As mentioned in my last post I will have my info and reads tonight.

There is no way this qualifies as "a lot I've been holding off on saying" or a good reason for doing so. He implied there were things going on.

Now the near-constant replacements of this slot have ensured that we've never had much to go on. But Bin's read list was vague and a lot of you guys already said you thought it looked made up. And while DCLXVI did a bunch to dispel suspicion when he came in, this looked to me a lot like scum trying to set himself up for extra town credit when it came time to look at the wagon votes.

Additionally, I thought at the time there was some tactical lurking going on before he flaked. I was waiting to jump on him about this but he was too into never explaining anything.

And now Bert has barely said 2 sentences to us. This slot is empty noise and lurking whenever input would be helpful from it.

Honeymoon is over.

[Fink]

NOTE: I wasn't skipping posts. Those were all the posts before he flaked aside from this final one, which was nothing.

Yes, I am aware I didn't post last night. I had to work in the evening. I am free tonight and there will be stuff in the next few hours.

[Thor665]

Blair vs. Thor does seem reasonably likely to be town-on-town.

Which is frustrating as hell, because she was a hypocritical pedant while apparently thinking that was the best way to find scum.

[shaddowez]

@Thor: So why'd you vote for Shaddowez?

Because I think he is an appropriate mix of scum and null to explore/lynch today.

I'm actually interested in what made you change your read of me, considering you had a town read on me in 955. The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

By my accounting we have, what, three more lynches to manage to hit at least one scum with?
Why not start with a guy I have no real read on of late?

You're sounding like Droog from D2. Him and Dys have a couple posts starting in 98 about mislynches, and we see how well that's worked out so far.

From my perspective, i think scum Bob (and maybe Bert) moved to give a solid counter offer to the Bob lynch by trying to push through the Phil lynch.
That said, i am coming from a basic perspective of Bob=scum and Phil=town.

Now that Bob flipped town, what do you think about Phil? He's been wagoned at least twice, with that wagon disbanding (or at least not completing) each time. Don't you think it even a bit possible that his partner would be doing the best they can to put the pressure on another wagon instead? Both times, town was lynched (acryon and Bob).

I agree with Fink's read on Bert, and haven't liked the slot from the get-go. Nobody seemed to really agree with me about Bins, and what DCL did for the slot in the beginning degraded quickly. I'm willing to vote that slot if need be, but I'm more interested to see what happens with another Phil wagon.

VOTE: Phil

[Thor665]

I'm actually interested in what made you change your read of me, considering you had a town read on me in 955. The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

Do you think you've managed to do enough to justify me keeping a town read from around 300 posts ago?

You're sounding like Droog from D2. Him and Dys have a couple posts starting in 98 about mislynches, and we see how well that's worked out so far.

I think it has worked out okay, frankly, it's not like we've lost people I've town read.
Do you think it's not working out okay?

[Thor665]

I'm actually leaning town on Shadow - if he's scum he's flying totally under my radar.

Ooooh, and such an epic read to reverse on.

[shaddowez]

I'm actually interested in what made you change your read of me, considering you had a town read on me in 955. The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

Do you think you've managed to do enough to justify me keeping a town read from around 300 posts ago?

I suppose that's a question about how you scum hunt. Are you looking for people that don't "do enough to justify" a town read, or do you look for people that actually do scummy things? If you're looking at activity, why isn't Dys on your list of scum reads? Actually, how about you provide a list of scum reads. Since the last read you gave on me is from 300 posts ago, I'm sure some others have changed as well.

You're sounding like Droog from D2. Him and Dys have a couple posts starting in 98 about mislynches, and we see how well that's worked out so far.

I think it has worked out okay, frankly, it's not like we've lost people I've town read.
Do you think it's not working out okay?

In a decreasing pool starting with ten people, I would have rather seen at least one scum lynched than three townies; so no, I don't really think it's working okay. The more that town does to mislynch people, the less work scum have to do to actually cause mislynches.

I'm actually leaning town on Shadow - if he's scum he's flying totally under my radar.

Ooooh, and such an epic read to reverse on.

It's still a reversal, no matter how strong it was.

[Bert]

The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

You sound over-paranoid. A change of opinion isn't that big of a deal. It's not like you were a super town read and his read changed suddenly.

He's been wagoned at least twice, with that wagon disbanding (or at least not completing) each time. Don't you think it even a bit possible that his partner would be doing the best they can to put the pressure on another wagon instead? Both times, town was lynched (acryon and Bob).

Why is this a big deal? You keep bringing up the hypothetical example of one scum not letting "Phil" get lynched. When I came in the game, a Phil counterwagon started and almost went through. Furthermore, it got to L-1 more quickly than Bob's did, by a mile.

Honeymoon is over.

I ain't in no relationship! Seriously, I've been waiting for someone to pressure my slot for a while. What took you so long to be visibly wary about my cool indifference?

I don't think Thor would have tunneled so long and hard as scum on just the one player, for weeks on end, but I'm not really sure, I think that merits some looking into. I'll try to find something, but any thoughts from you Bert?

This part about Thor and his meta seems so deceptive to me. like a scumhunting facade. What exactly do you hope to achieve by looking at Thor's past games?

[droog]

dammit

can we have a dayphase with less meandering wallposts and better lynches please
i have another 3 pages of wallposts i need to scour and im already worried i wasnt putting enough effort into this game /before/

[Thor665]

I suppose that's a question about how you scum hunt. Are you looking for people that don't "do enough to justify" a town read, or do you look for people that actually do scummy things?

I see no reason I can't look for both and use both as a tell. I do think "doing enough to justify a town read" is a very valid issue to raise at this point. I will agree you've been lurky enough you haven't done anything particularly scummy, but I don't actually see that as a point particularly in your favor.

If you're looking at activity, why isn't Dys on your list of scum reads?

Because she did something that is townish. I will happily agree with you that her play is bad, I've pretty much been saying that since Day 1. But me disagreeing with a playstyle is not always identical to me scumreading someone because I do accept that town can play poorly and at that point it's a question of whether they have done town or scumtells other than the bad play. For wgeurts the answer was 'no' and for Dyx the answer is 'yes'.

Actually, how about you provide a list of scum reads. Since the last read you gave on me is from 300 posts ago, I'm sure some others have changed as well.

I would say Bert with you and Droog in tight competition for second place. If I extend out to 4 then Phil. I would actively oppose a Fink or Dyx lynch at this juncture.

In a decreasing pool starting with ten people, I would have rather seen at least one scum lynched than three townies; so no, I don't really think it's working okay. The more that town does to mislynch people, the less work scum have to do to actually cause mislynches.

That's kind of an empty statement though - you're not dinging the method, you're dinging the result.
Yes, sure, a town lynch is bad - that said, the method has been fine and we are limiting the pool of potential scumspects with each move. Beyond that we can start looking at who is defending or pushing whom and draw ideas from that about possible teams.

Do you have some alternate method to consider, or are you just wanting to be seen bemoaning the town lynches?

It's still a reversal, no matter how strong it was.

Well...okay, but what the hell is this?

If I reverse a weak read that is hardly a shocking or strange thing. that's actually pretty normal. I just lynched a scum read and they flipped town - oddly that makes me go back and reconsider things in a new light. I submit it would be strange if all my reads remained rock solid, rather than having some shift. Also, you *presented* that shift like it was surprising or strange, how do you remotely justify that? A read change is not strange - it is the normal state of affairs. I did a much bigger one to Dyx back a few days going from 'scum' to 'solid town' and you didn't even bat an eye when I proclaimed that, so why does this one bother you so much?

be specific.
Please.
I'd love to hear this.

[Bert]

And thus, a stand off is reached.

Also, Bert- "The previous occupant of the slot was scummy when I read through and I disagree with his reads, but due to factors outside of this game I am instead going to put a null-town read at L-1." is what I got from that last post. Care to elaborate?

I know Bob and have past game experience with him. Pretty familiar with his play, and he's not the type of player I get too paranoid about. In the end, that took precedence, and while I wavered about trusting my read on him after seeing Blair's play, I decided I read him as town regardless of what Blair did.

I disagreed with Bob's reads and his approach. My replace-in was avoidant and scummier, and he was aggressive. Sure. But I didn't read Bob independently as scum. I would have voted anyone over him at DL. You were the only counter wagon with a shot. Not an overstatement.

I'm omitting what happened prior to when I replaced in. I agreed with Bob earlier that the first few game days were filled with arguments in which I lost interest in keeping up with.

I can get some deplorable reads in tomorrow afternoon. Relaxing week.

[Bert]

he consciously chose to butt heads with the player most likely to ram through any lynch he wants. In a nightless, where Thor can't just be sent out via NK if Bob were scum. Worst choice of an enemy to make if scum. Right out of the gate, with little hope for enough support to get the scumread lynched.
Boldest move I've seen from him in the past games we had.

Scum mindset wasn't there.

[Bert]

Last post until tomorrow morn. I hesitated to defend him (soft, hard, or vague), because (1) wasn't fully caught up then (I am caught up on all recent proceedings from the time I replaced in, but Days 1 and 2 are something else...) and (2) didn't have a great explanation (it's past meta) and (3) wasn't feeling reckless enough to go out on a limb like that (without much supporting reasoning) when he was probably dying anyway. It was L-1 once I got through the game. Instincts/meta-reads are just that...not worthwhile to post except to supplement real, reasoned reads (not fluff)...or, in this case, worth giving to try to see if a counterwagon would work last minute to spare him

[Dyslexicon]

VOTE: Thor

Yeah. I'm not about to move my vote.

Bai. Later.

[Thor665]

I would have voted anyone over him at DL.

I hesitated to defend him (soft, hard, or vague)

I feel like these two thoughts, taken together, need explanation.

@Dys - stop being terrible, please.

[Bert]

Oops. I'll get to this tonight on my laptop to answer.

@Fink Re: 1209: what did DCL do to dispel suspicion? He went on what you call a 'honeymoon.' I haven't dispelled suspicion, and neither did my predecessor. Also - Why would holding off on posting reads until the flip be a means for extra town credit? I don't understand.