Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

acryon · Post Post #1900 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 4:57 am

And I already pointed out Titus' crappy CKD vote with no explanation other than "one of the GC/CKD is scum, so CKD." I understand we are in a generally safe position as town right now, but I'd rather us not slack at any point, especially since I'm the only conftown and I'm dying tonight.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #1901 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:16 am

The thing about GC being town from Day 3 is the obvious clarity between the two; I don't believe that GC is a Scrambles buddy based on the extent to which he torpedoed Scrambles into a star Yesterday.

acryon · Post Post #1902 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:23 am

That post wasn't from Day 3; that was from today.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #1903 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:24 am

But said post Today pointed out that GC had reasons for being town based on Day 3. I don't understand what the confusion is.

acryon · Post Post #1904 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:28 am

Bu that post

hardly

represented CKD clearly as a more likely scum-buddy than GC. There was quite a bit of uncertainty with both of them. Are we really at that bad of a spot in the game where we are just voting for the person who happens to be slightly scummier than everyone else? We don't have anything better than that? That seems very surprising. And I still want to see the VCA from Titus to back up her claims.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #1905 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:33 am

That post does not exist in a vacuum! It's a single piece of analysis that I did to help separate out suspects from what I already had. I'm sure that I've said previously to that post why I think GC is town, and I acknowledged within it that there are reasons outside of that one post why GC is town. I explained why the GC slot's Day 1 was not the reason why he is town because I feel it's important to acknowledge that my conclusion about his alignment wasn't drawn from that one Day. But I do feel he is town for reasons previously stated.

CKD does not have those big, shiny redeeming features elsewhere which is why I didn't qualify my statements about him with something about why Day X helps to exonerates him. Within that one post of mine, the distinction is fairly clear but, if you've paid attention to my whole game, it's blindingly obvious.

acryon · Post Post #1906 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:45 am

In post 1905, ChannelDelibird wrote:That post does not exist in a vacuum! It's a single piece of analysis that I did to help separate out suspects from what I already had. I'm sure that I've said previously to that post why I think GC is town, and I acknowledged within it that there are reasons outside of that one post why GC is town. I explained why the GC slot's Day 1 was not the reason why he is town because I feel it's important to acknowledge that my conclusion about his alignment wasn't drawn from that one Day. But I do feel he is town for reasons previously stated.

CKD does not have those big, shiny redeeming features elsewhere which is why I didn't qualify my statements about him with something about why Day X helps to exonerates him. Within that one post of mine, the distinction is fairly clear but, if you've paid attention to my whole game, it's blindingly obvious.

Obviously it doesn't exist in a vacuum. It is your conclusions at that point in time, and obviously those have more behind them, but that isn't the point. And actually, I just looked through your ISO for every time you talked about CKD, and 1807 was the first time you even mentioned the idea that he is scummy, and even saying that is a stretch, because it was extremely soft.

You say these later on:

In post 1832, ChannelDelibird wrote:As to where I go next, assuming there's no counterclaim (God, please, somebody counterclaim), it's kind of a toss-up between CKD and Amy, as I've previously indicated. I won't be voting for Titus, farside, Riddleton or GC. I'm not particularly enthused enough to really have a priority of one over the other but I guess CKD would probably be the first port of call.

In post 1890, ChannelDelibird wrote:VOTE: CKD

I think this is a very slightly better place to start than Amy, although Amy's continual lack of activity does rub me up the wrong way. I definitely won't be voting for either farside or Titus Today so that farside wagon needs to stop being a thing.

So my question was, and still is,

why?

Given that you haven't discussed him as possible scum except in that one post, this is what you had to say

"I'm not a huge fan of cerberus calling Belisarius kind-of scummy but saying that "scum don't like to break silence like that" in an argument not unlike 'too scummy to be scum', as he declares a scumread but wants other votes pursued instead. Definitely a plausible buddy interaction.

Blonde kind of softballs cerberus on the Toby thing here but it's a slight ping, at most.

In the period after his initial replace-in, there's very little comment from CKD on either Belisarius or scrambles. His first interaction with them is here, where he has a go at scrambles for voting Beli over Chaos. It's fairly strong for a buddy interaction, really, especially as he continues to push it, though the fact that he defends Belisarius at the same time is maybe interesting. If CKD is the buddy, then he's putting his interactions with both partners in the spotlight more than I'd expect, but pushing one and defending the other isn't an unusual dynamic in that regard. Scrambles accuses him of "bullying", which I'm honestly not sure how to read so am going to call null."

And that equates to him being scum? The reasons (or lackthereof) you're presenting are a lot crappier than what I would expect on day 4 of the game from the caliber of player that you are. I would expect this from Titus' play this game, but not from yours.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #1907 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:51 am

I don't disagree that I've got less than I would like, but process of elimination is powerful at this point. I think there are

very strong

reasons for the following to not be scum: you, farside, Titus, Riddleton, GC. That leaves me with only two viable possibilities: CKD and Amy. If I had time, I could probably go back through some old games and show you examples of me employing PoE like this as town, but I just don't right now.

Given the gamestate, given the strength of townreads elsewhere, I am happy enough that 'not obviously town, has a couple of things against him' is a good enough reason to vote CKD here. I could point out things like him being emphatically wrong throughout key phases of this game, or the fact that he's played up that wrongness very strongly, but I think that it might be confirmation-biasy of me to do so. I don't want to go searching through all of his posts for any shred of evidence that might support a theory of him being scum because one has to be led by the evidence, not the conclusion. The evidence so far tells me that a lot of people who aren't CKD are town.

curiouskarmadog · Post Post #1908 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:52 am

Acryon, as I appreciate you going to bat for me here..

this REALLY is the bottom line. the game is stalling. there is little to no content beside the occasional gem ("scum tend not to post" comment) to go on today. I have little friends in the game.

I wasnt joking (or a ploy) when I said I dont want to be at lylo. look at all the suspicion today, if I am at lylo what will that look like? Who am I going to have to convince I am town? If I make it to lylo we lose. All i am hoping to do today is bring light to some stuff, that people can/might look back on tomorrow. this being said, my reads are all off in this game.

I dont see farside as scum, so my vote isnt going there. leaning GC and CDB..will try to provide something useful before the day is out and I am done.

acryon · Post Post #1909 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:55 am

In post 1907, ChannelDelibird wrote:I don't disagree that I've got less than I would like, but process of elimination is powerful at this point. I think there are
very strong
reasons for the following to not be scum: you, farside, Titus, Riddleton, GC. That leaves me with only two viable possibilities: CKD and Amy. If I had time, I could probably go back through some old games and show you examples of me employing PoE like this as town, but I just don't right now.

Given the gamestate, given the strength of townreads elsewhere, I am happy enough that 'not obviously town, has a couple of things against him' is a good enough reason to vote CKD here. I could point out things like him being emphatically wrong throughout key phases of this game, or the fact that he's played up that wrongness very strongly, but I think that it might be confirmation-biasy of me to do so. I don't want to go searching through all of his posts for any shred of evidence that might support a theory of him being scum because one has to be led by the evidence, not the conclusion. The evidence so far tells me that a lot of people who aren't CKD are town.

Ok, I actually like this post a lot more than the other ones, and I agree with your thought process here. What do you make of CKD's post just before mine?

acryon · Post Post #1910 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:57 am

The people I am currently most interested to hear from are Farside (who said she should be following up today) and Titus. Because those are the two whose reads will have to have adjusted the most since their votes were on me.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #1911 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:58 am

In post 1909, acryon wrote:Ok, I actually like this post a lot more than the other ones, and I agree with your thought process here. What do you make of CKD's post just before mine?

Not sure, but not especially surprised. He has maintained this idea of him being dangerously wrong about everything for a while. What he actually offers by way of just-before-I-go evidence will be more telling either way, I suspect.

Titus · Post Post #1912 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:38 pm

Acryon, my reads need little adjusting. Scum and townbears come up the same in VCS.

Riddleton · Post Post #1913 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:00 pm

In post 1895, Green Crayons wrote:
@Riddle:
you've withdrawn your CKD suspicions. Was that simply for purposes of throwing out your GC vote/suspicions, or do your CKD suspicions still exist? Why, if they no longer exist?

Still exist, but less so than before. I think you aremore likely scum than CKD at the moment.

farside22 · Post Post #1914 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:01 am

Didn't get the time I needed yesterday.

I thought about this game last night and the players.

Town:
GC: I think is town. The push on scrambles and back and forth I can not see coming from scum
Riddle: Pretty much the same as GC
Acryon: Claimed doc

Leaning Town
CBD: I know what I said about chaos but bird came in and analysis the game and I felt myself agree with many of the things he said from the start.

Not sure/paranoid:

Titus - I know the girl voted for scrambles and beli but I had that paranoid moment because how little I see from her as far as reasons. The idea of bussing and just floating buy did enter my thoughts last night.

Ckd: -All I recalled from ckd was skelda. I don't know if he responded to why he thought chaos(cbd) with how the interaction was during day 1 and 2 when I pushed the case on chaos. I know scum bus but that hard and that much just don't make sense. I haven't really read today, but most of the time has been just asking questions and not much else.

AFF - Early on good then just not involved. She pushed the case on beli for pretty meh reasoning and just kept the vote there. Day 2, was the, this should happen and voted Beli, with the pressure on beli yesterday from others, this seems more like the best play for scum to make. Also once the pressure was off Amy day 3 after the beli lynch she was non response and non interaction with Scrambles. I have seen no opinion from her after the lynches on scum and has just coasted by the game.

Vote: Amy

Will have more Saturday

acryon · Post Post #1915 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:26 am

In post 1912, Titus wrote:Acryon, my reads need little adjusting. Scum and townbears come up the same in VCS.

In post 1888, acryon wrote:
In post 1886, Titus wrote:It did. I highlighted how Channel is the cw of choice. AF hard bussed scrambles. Farside and Beli's fight over Farside voting scrambles slot was not likely scum theatre.

You should try reading before discrediting.

I did, more than once, but mentioning 1-2 of each of those players many votes is far from a complete analysis.

Can you not post your VCA with more of an emphasis on the alive players? Because your original one mentioned players other than me and scrambles very little. I'd like to see what you made of each person based on the VCA, kind of like the VCA that GC has done, which has been quality. You are supposedly a VCA master of sorts, so I don't understand why it is such a problem for you to post a complete VCA to help inform the rest of us.

Titus · Post Post #1916 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:59 am

I did do a complete VCA. Just because you refuse to read doesn't make it incomplete.

Titus · Post Post #1917 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:01 am

In post 1643, Baezu wrote:

Vote Count 3.12Titus: (2) acryon, scrambles
ChannelDelibird: (2) Curiouskarmadog , Amy Farrah Fowler

(LYNCH!)
scrambles: (6) Titus, Riddleton, ChannelDelibird, Green Crayons, Farside22, Kalimar

Not Voting:

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-10-18 20:47:00)

Mod Notes:
None

[/area]

Just in case...look at CKD trying to counterwagon scrambles.

Titus · Post Post #1918 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:05 am

In post 1047, Titus wrote:
In post 1046, ChannelDelibird wrote:UNVOTE: Amy

Nonetheless, going to rethink. I want people to propose alternatives; even if I'm right, Belisarius had two buddies.

Conftown. Amy is town too most likely.

In post 1597, Titus wrote:I forgot to fucking post my VCA. LOL! Excuse me for being a dumb ass there.

My vote is on scrambles for WiFOM, piss poor voting/interactions and OMGUS. Scrambles hasn't voted or pushed anyone since it's become apparent I am not going to be the lynch today.

1.02 scrambles wagoned alongside farside who looks pretty obviously town from his play and reaction to Beli's lynch and the start of today.
Beli attacked Farside pretty hard for his vote on Scramble's current slot (I know I've mentioned at least this before).

1.03
Beli and Chaoslord (now CDB) are wagoned.
Both scrambles and acryon's slots are on the counterwagon to known scum. CDB being Beli's counterwagon is also less likely to be scum.
1.04 The wagon on Beli has essential degraded. AFF has been parked on Beli since the start. That eliminates AFF as likely scum in my book separate from her posting. Farside22's wagon also has CDB and Beli on it. Given scum tend not to quick vote to start a counterwagon (unless it's a scumwagon they are countering), this is strong evidence that CDB is town.

Skip a few to end of D 1 wagons
1.09 This is the best proscrambles thing in 1.09 he's third on the wagon for Beli, but that's also a prime scum bus slot. Scrambles hadn't been voting since unvoting in VC 1.07. This gives him greater flexibility to bus if necessary. Acryon is still on TobyLoby by himself.
1.10 Scrambles and Acryon take the same positions.
1.11 Scrambles and Acryon are still on the same spots.
1.12 Acryon jumps on Beli. This vote screams BUS. None of the town were making a decision and Acryon didn't want to get caught being the tipping point to where he caused the townie to get lynched.
1.13 CDB votes Skelda, thus giving that wagon momentum. Acryon immediately moves over. Thus forcing a Skelda lynch.

Day 2

If Scrambles was so confident, Beli was scum, we would expect him to open with a vote on Beli. He does not. AFF immediately votes Beli within the opening VCA. Rather, the scumteam decided to frontload the bus after it was obvious. Farside, given her tunnelling of CDB would be reliable to attempt to persuade onto a derp wagon. So that's precisely what they did. Vote, lurk, pray for the other wagon to take off.

Day 3

Day 3 focuses on CDB and AFF I've been no so subtly shooting these wagons down due to my day 1 analysis (which I thought I had posted but hadn't whoops). They've been obvious town based on their play and their voting.

There.

Riddleton is likely town bc yesterday.

That leaves GC and CKD.

Titus · Post Post #1919 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:07 am

If you want me to, I can retype that and waste my time.

acryon · Post Post #1920 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:13 am

In post 1916, Titus wrote:I did do a complete VCA. Just because you refuse to read doesn't make it incomplete.

*Sigh* You mentioned pieces of player's votes, but it was far from being thorough or exhaustive, and your Day 2 and 3 observations are extremely minimal. That's not even to mention the fact that you based a chunk of that analysis on the premise that I was scum. It was weak analysis in the first place, and when coupled with a foundation of faulty premise, it gets even worse. If you actually care about us catching and voting scum, then provide a

current

VCA based on the current confirmed players (myself and the dead), and let's get some scum.

P.edit: Did you really just bold the worst part of your entire analysis? You refer to the scum-team as "they" in both parts with "they" obviously referring to me and scrambles because of your day 1 analysis. Do I really have to explain to you why I think your analysis needs a revisiting given it was based on an incorrect alignment read on myself, which was one of the lynch-pins of your case?

Titus · Post Post #1921 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:24 am

Acryon my lynchpins are conftowns and work outwards. I put it in chronological order for understanding. I bolded the parts that make people conftown.

Farside- Fight with Beli over Scrambles vote
AFF - Tunnel on Beli
CDB - Always the counterwagon.
Riddleton - Strong lean town based on yesterday's vote pattern.

My history with VCA is my conftowns are not wrong. Occassionally I document the townbeard as scum though.

Harry Potter Large Theme is the best example.

Malakittens tunnelled scum. Last scum tried to takecredit. My analysis had two scums because one guy went eight days and never voted scum. He was the townbeard.

acryon · Post Post #1922 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:59 am

I did a little looking on my own and have some questions.

Concerning CKD:
Day 1, Scrambles was pushing CDB, and then Beli at the end of the day, and Beli was pushing Farside and then Skelda.
Day 2, Scrambles continued his push on Beli the entire day, while Beli switched his efforts to pushing CKD. Do you think it is likely that Beli would go from pushing 2 townies(1 confirmed and 1 presumed by you and others) on day 1 to hard bussing day 2, especially since scrambles was already bussing him?

Also, what do you think about the fact that dry-fit was pushing Chaos/CDB all day before finally switching to Skelda at the end, and then got NK'd? Because of his play, there are two primary motives to me for his NK. 1) Killing him to keep him from pushing back hard on Chaos the next day, because Chaos/CDB is part of the scum-team. 2) Killing him to make Chaos/CDB look bad by pointing out that 1) is what the scum-team probably did. They certainly didn't do #2, as Beli cast doubt on the Chaos case day 2. This means it has to be #1. I know speculation on NK's is often frowned-upon, but in this case, these 2 seem to be far-and-away the most likely scenarios, and it's clear which one went down.

Titus · Post Post #1923 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:31 am

Dryfit could have been kilked because the scumteam PR hunted him. Beli casting doubt on CDB is good for him bc he needed the towncred. NK analysis is prone to seeing what you want to see.

acryon · Post Post #1924 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:39 am

In post 1923, Titus wrote:Dryfit could have been kilked because the scumteam PR hunted him. Beli casting doubt on CDB is good for him bc he needed the towncred. NK analysis is prone to seeing what you want to see.

I find it hard to believe that Beli was simply trying to gain town-cred by casting doubt on the Chaos case. His lynch was all-but-certain and I'm sure he knew that.