Newbie 1546: Binary Trolls (Game Over!)

[Bulbazak]

010000010111010000100000011011000110010101100001011100110111010000100000011110010110111101110101001000000110010001101001011001000110111000100111011101000010000001101100011110010110111001100011011010000010000001101000011010010110110100101110

Shiro,

Town Cop

, was night killed.

Vote Count

TGGC (0):
Netherspite (0):
Toolenduso (0):
BlueBloodedToffee (0):
Luca Blight (0):
VictorDeAngelo (0):
Goodmorning (0):

Not Voting (7): TGGC, Netherspite, Toolenduso, BlueBloodedToffee, Luca Blight, VictorDeAngelo, Goodmorning

It is day 2. With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day ends on Wednesday, November 19 at 10:15pm EST. Countdown: (expired on 2014-11-19 22:15:00).

[toolenduso]

Well I

was

going to make a case for lynching Shiro today...

But now VDA is at the top of my scum list. It's partly PoE and partly based on his D1 play. Here we go:

TGGC -- The cop flip lends even more evidence that we are in setup number two (mafia RB, town doc, town cop), which lends even more credibility to TGGC's claim.
Netherspite -- On top of Nether posting a few very towny-looking posts yesterday, his post-lynch posting seals him up as likely town for me. What newbscum would actually stay up that late at night, after a lynch had already been achieved, to "see the flip" when he already knew what the flip was going to be? He would have to be very, very clever for newbscum to deliberately pull something like that.
Blue -- I've already mentioned it, but I just feel like Blue isn't trying to look towny at all. He's not putting on an act like I would expect scum to, and on top of that he could have hopped on a much easier lynch to push toward the end of the day phase yesterday than the ones he was pushing without compromise (Luca at first and then Johnny).
Luca -- Luca generally gave me town vibes during D1. I questioned him a little after his quick jump onto the Shiro flashwagon toward the end of the day phase, but looking back on his behavior during that whole end-of-day period, it fits. Also, Luca's switch from Shiro to VDA in #841 makes no sense to me if Luca is scum. Shiro was at L-1 at the time. Especially knowing that I was going to be online soon and that I had already stated my suspicion of Shiro, why in the hell would scumLuca go from putting Shiro at L-1 to voting for VDA, when there wasn't really pressure on him as a result of his Shiro vote? This looks like town being paranoid and indecisive.
VDA -- Had his vote on Shiro going into the last-minute compromise session at the end of D1. Kept his vote there and didn't contribute much to the discussion. This looks like scum standing on the sidelines and keeping his vote in a safe place. It makes so much sense for scum to act this way in the position we were in at the end of D1.
GiF/Goodmorning -- Lurking is null, but PoE and early vaguely scummy vibes from GiF lead me to put this slot at #2 on my scum list.

By the way, I put together this little chart keeping track of how people's reads throughout the end of D1 compromise session, beginning with my last post (it was in the 700s somewhere I believe) and ending with the end of the day (I kept Johnny off and took Shiro off upon seeing the flip; GiF isn't on there because he didn't participate):

-Luca: Wants to lynch Shiro (#776), would also consider a Blue lynch (#802), switches vote from Shiro (L-1) to VDA (#841) and says Shiro looks more town, re-votes Shiro in #939, says he has no idea who scum is in #963, votes for VDA in #975, votes for Blue in #1006, says he would vote Johnny in #1036, says GiF could be scum in #1054, votes VDA in #1065, votes Shiro in #1093, votes Johnny in #1118, says he has a gut feeling that Shiro is town in #1130
-Blue: Thinks Luca and VDA are scum (#784), has Shiro as biggest townread (#803), Nether, myself and TGGC are townreads but Johnny and GiF are likely scum (#818), switches vote to VDA in #970, votes Luca again in #994, votes Johnny in #1034
-Nether: Thinks Luca is scum (#786), has vote on Shiro but unvotes in #938, has decided to trust Shiro in #962 and now is willing to lynch VDA, says Johnny doesn't look scummy in #990, votes Johnny in #1109
-VDA: Scumreading Shiro and Blue (#877), has vote on Shiro, goes to sleep with vote there

VOTE: Victor

[toolenduso]

By "my last post" I meant my last post before most of the player list got on at once and started trying to compromise toward the end of the day. It was post #770.

[toolenduso]

Also I feel like Shiro being NK'ed might have been because Shiro was pushing VDA for like, most of D1.

[VictorDeAngelo]

Tool before Shiro died who was your top scumread(s)?

[Netherspite]

It was my fault Shiro got nightkilled.
I asked a number of questions that helped the scum understand that he is the cop, before I realized it myself.
Blue and me were defending him because we realized that he's cop.
Blue did it earlier than me, and thats why he did post insane things and didnt want to explain his townreads.

TGGC is not confirmed yet because we still can have column B setup.

As to the scum, I think most likely there was no scum in our night discussion. Or Blue was clever scum who decided to defend Shiro at day (for towncred) and kill him at night.

[Netherspite]

@TGGC

Do you still scumread me?

@VictorDeAngelo

Were you surprised by the Shiro's flip?

[VictorDeAngelo]

Nether, what do you mean there were no scum in the night discussion?

@VictorDeAngelo

Were you surprised by the Shiro's flip?

Yep, thought he was scum.

[Luca Blight]

I thought Shiro might be cop from a couple of things she said. At least I feel not as bad about lynching Farrar now, given the alternative option was the cop anyway.

[Netherspite]

@Luca Blight

Why did you vote Shiro in #1093 if you thought he might be cop?
Even worse, it was that "flashwagon" and you just voted him without any uncertainity.

[Netherspite]

@VictorDeAngelo

I mean among those who were staying until the lynch.

[Luca Blight]

@Luca Blight

Why did you vote Shiro in #1093 if you thought he might be cop?
Even worse, it was that "flashwagon" and you just voted him without any uncertainity.

I think I explained that already.

[Luca Blight]

Just so it's clear:

Likelihood of a Farrar/Tool scumteam?

I don't feel great about this lynch actually. Let me think for a second.

UNVOTE:

I have a gut feeling Shiro is Town, that is basically it.

I voted on impulse, then reconsidered.

I have just wanted to get a lynch done, but as there is support for a Farrar lynch currently, I fee there is perhaps more chance of him flipping scum than Shiro.

as there is support for a Farrar lynch currently, I fee there is perhaps more chance of him flipping scum than Shiro.

Is it me or is this completely counter-logical?

You probably mis-interpreted.

I didn't mean because of there being support to lynch Farrar, that makes him more likely to flip scum, I meant as the option is there, I think he has more chance of flipping scum over Shiro, if that makes sense. It's late and I'm tired.

What I basically meant was - I have been in the mode of 'lynch anyone' for a while now, because of how tonight has gone on here. I voted Shiro on impulse, then saw there was a possibility of a Farrar lynch. The disturbing possibility of a Tool/Farrar scumteam entered my head so I unvoted and reconsidered. Then I decided Farrar was the more likely to flip scum.

Does that make sense?

I voted on impulse because of the situation we had been and how late it was, then I remembered about Shiro, hence the 'gut feeling' thing. I wasn't certain but that is why I preferred the Farrar lynch to Shiro.

[VictorDeAngelo]

@Tool

- Why assume setup two over column b here?

@VictorDeAngelo

I mean among those who were staying until the lynch.

Ah, that makes sense. I wondered for a moment if it was a huge scumslip, but then realized that didn't make much sense from scum. Also, it was before my morning coffee.

I have to say I was surprised to wake up and find Johnny lynched, but I guess better him than me. The trouble with compromise lynches is the wagon itself isn't massively informative. I still want to hear from BlueBloodedToffee right now; particularly when he thought Shiro was cop (assuming he did like you say) and what it was that made him think that.

Goodmorning, good to see you again. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the game as well.

[Luca Blight]

From PoE I think there is a decent chance GoodMorning could be scum. The other one maybe between Tool/Victor.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Infact if you asked me I would say my lynch wont be happening today XD

This is when I got a hint that Shiro was a PR.

She made references like this numerous times. Hence my annoyance and me telling people to ISO Shiro.

This is just a quick post, I'll post much more later.

I want to lynch VDA or Luca today I think.

[Netherspite]

Infact if you asked me I would say my lynch wont be happening today XD

This is when I got a hint that Shiro was a PR.

Shiro also answered "No, but close" to my "Are you a prophet?" after this.
And all his speculations about the setup and weird exclusion of column C...
I realized it too late unfortunately. Should've stopped asking him before he slipped more.

===

I'm also thinking PoE brings us to the GiF/Goodmorning and VDA.
But I'd like to hear from Goodmorning before making any conclusions.

Also, TGGC still can be lying in his Doc claim.

So my current list of potential suspects is: Goodmorning, VDA, TGGC, BlueBloodedToffee.
But TGGC will wait until LyLo of course.

[Luca Blight]

I want to lynch VDA or Luca today I think.

First it was thought Shiro and me were a scumteam, then Farrar and me, who's my partner in crime this time?

I clearly have no alliance with any other player in this game, and would like to think my actions yesterday before the lynch wouldn't really make sense from a scum perspective.

[Netherspite]

Self-analyzing does not look good usually (because you explain others how you

tried

to look). But since I was accused a number of times for the similar things while I was town I won't consider it suspicious.

[Luca Blight]

I didn't try to look like anything - that was the point. That doesn't mean I can't point it out that if you look back, you won't find an awful lot of scum motivation behind my posts yesterday, particularly near the lynch.

If I was scum, who would make sense to be my scum partner at this point?

[Netherspite]

Personally I don't really think you're scum.
I agree that your behavior at the lynch night was not scummy. I'm not completely excluding the possibility of you being the scum but I consider it unlikely.

[VictorDeAngelo]

Hey Luca, can you link some recent scumgames. I'm suddenly very interested in how good you are distancing.

[toolenduso]

Tool before Shiro died who was your top scumread(s)?

Shiro. You were up there as well.

It was my fault Shiro got nightkilled.
I asked a number of questions that helped the scum understand that he is the cop, before I realized it myself.
Blue and me were defending him because we realized that he's cop.
Blue did it earlier than me, and thats why he did post insane things and didnt want to explain his townreads.

Well that pretty much flew over my head. I'm going to have to mull this over.

@Tool

- Why assume setup two over column b here?

I'm not assuming, I'm saying that a cop flip lends more credibility to the theory that we're in setup two, and thus adds credibility to TGGC's claim. It's still possible that we're in setup B, yes.

[Netherspite]

Shiro's flip does not increase the chance we're in setup 2.
We had 3 possible setups where is either doc possible or fake doc can be unCCd: columns B, C; row 2.
We now have column C excluded.
Right now we have 2 possible setups: 50% TGGC is saying the truth (row 2) and 50% TGGC lying and unCCd (column B).
In the former case mafia has RB, in the latter they don't.

[Netherspite]

Well, the chance is increased, but compared to setup B it still has the same chance (33% / 33% previously and 50% / 50% now)