Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

That's fine.

[Riddleton]

Farside isn't an option today. It's either CKD or GC from my POV.

[Riddleton]

The last thing I want is Riddle-GC-CKD LyLo.

[Riddleton]

GC

, why are you assuming Scum bussed on the Scrambles wagon?

[Riddleton]

I think it's CKD. He intentionally avoided Scrambles so he can out-WiFOM the town later on by the fact that "Most scum bus, I didn't therefore I'm not scum".

[Riddleton]

GC is still sort of suspicious but less so now that I can relate to his Scrambles/CDB stance to me GC/CKD stance.

[Riddleton]

If Amy flips town....thinking about tomorrow pains me.

We get more of this defeatist "I'm doomed just lynch me already" WiFOM from CKD.

[Riddleton]

CDB is clear because of this post. I think a last minute switch from someone whom was suspicious anyway to Amy as scum... would be a very ballsy gambit considering the gamestate. I'd be impressed if CDB is scum, but don't think it's likely.

[Green Crayons]

The fact that CKD is the only living player who was not a part of either scum-lynch only gives him town-points IMO. And WIFOM, blah blah, but you would never choose to count on someone making this argument over just gaining cred by lynching a partner.

@acryon:

I would also prefer to no-lynch closer to LyLo, but this wagon on CKD is terrible. GC - what do you think of the fact that CKD voted for neither of the scum?

I think the fact that CKD did not vote either scum, standing alone, ultimately cuts against being town because otherwise you have to assume scum will bus at least one of their partners.

I think that is a perfectly reasonable assumption, at least given the way this game has been playing. I find it

very

hard to believe that scum-CKD would abstain from either of his partners' wagons, as well as essentially hard-defend his partner D1. I've already said this, but doing these things does nothing but make him look bad, and the chance that someone would make the argument I'm making and get people to believe it is much much lower than the chance that he gets lynched for not hanging either of his buddies.

If you are saying that the specific circumstances of how CKD went about not voting scum in this game undercuts the typical suspicion that results from failing to vote scum, then I agree with you.

That is why I have listed him last among those players I would vote for who already have a vote on them.

[Riddleton]

I'm just spilling my thoughts out, GC.

[Green Crayons]

Well I hit submit and not preview.

Those posts show why I don't think CKD was consciously avoiding voting a scummate.

Rethinking my Post 2013, I agree with acryon that it's reasonable to assume that scum will bus at least one of their scum partners.

I've stated why farside's scrambles vote looks like a bus.

If farside is actually town, POE means that the only potential scum on the scrambles wagon was CDB. I think CDB is more likely to be scum that CKD for the reasons quoted above.

[Green Crayons]

CDB is clear because of this post.

I think a last minute switch from someone whom was suspicious anyway to Amy as scum... would be a very ballsy gambit considering the gamestate.

I'd be impressed if CDB is scum, but don't think it's likely.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

[Green Crayons]

Actually, if farside isn't scum, I'd probably have to hope that I get NKed because frankly I don't know which of CDB or CKD I would lynch first.

[Green Crayons]

@CKD:

why didn't you vote at the end of yesterday?

[Riddleton]

GC

, do you really think town would go all out with the "PLEASE LYNCH ME" posts which CKD is doing? Consider that CKD goes all-out appeal to authority by saying "Very experienced players such as myself bus!" but makes the plea that his play is very scummy now and he needs to be Lynched, despite abstaining from both wagons?

[Green Crayons]

@CKD:

if you think you reaching LYLO is SUPER BAD for the town, and you have lamented your play, why haven't you self voted?

[Green Crayons]

Yeah, Riddle, that's probably the best argument for why he's scum.

[Riddleton]

You generally don't self-vote unless under very specific circumstances which don't arise 99% of the time.

[Riddleton]

*as town

[Green Crayons]

You also don't say "town would be 100% better off with me dead before LYLO" because you know for a fact that you are town, and that your vote is ultimately a vote attempting to help the town.

[Green Crayons]

Like, if CKD truly believed that: his pre-LYLO death > his vote for the town's well being, self-voting would be the optimal play on his behalf.

[Riddleton]

CDB is clear because of this post.

I think a last minute switch from someone whom was suspicious anyway to Amy as scum... would be a very ballsy gambit considering the gamestate.

I'd be impressed if CDB is scum, but don't think it's likely.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

CKD was/is suspicious.

If CDB was scum, why would be gambit a sudden flashwagon & save of CKD to go on someone else (Amy) when he could have stuck with CKD the way through?

It's possible, but it's a ballsy gambit considering the gamestate we're in (1 more mislynch and we're in LyLo).

[Riddleton]

CDB isn't particularly under much suspicion himself, so there's no need for him to pull such a gambit even if he was scum.

[Riddleton]

Titus is probably town for the double bus.

[Riddleton]

Farside is likely town too for her natural posts.