In post 1597, Titus wrote:I forgot to fucking post my VCA. LOL! Excuse me for being a dumb ass there.
My vote is on scrambles for WiFOM, piss poor voting/interactions and OMGUS. Scrambles hasn't voted or pushed anyone since it's become apparent I am not going to be the lynch today.
1.02 scrambles wagoned alongside farside who looks pretty obviously town from his play and reaction to Beli's lynch and the start of today. Beli attacked Farside pretty hard for his vote on Scramble's current slot (I know I've mentioned at least this before).
1.03 Beli and Chaoslord (now CDB) are wagoned. Both scrambles and acryon's slots are on the counterwagon to known scum. CDB being Beli's counterwagon is also less likely to be scum.
1.04 The wagon on Beli has essential degraded. AFF has been parked on Beli since the start. That eliminates AFF as likely scum in my book separate from her posting. Farside22's wagon also has CDB and Beli on it. Given scum tend not to quick vote to start a counterwagon (unless it's a scumwagon they are countering), this is strong evidence that CDB is town.
Skip a few to end of D 1 wagons
1.09 This is the best proscrambles thing in 1.09 he's third on the wagon for Beli, but that's also a prime scum bus slot. Scrambles hadn't been voting since unvoting in VC 1.07. This gives him greater flexibility to bus if necessary. Acryon is still on TobyLoby by himself.
1.10 Scrambles and Acryon take the same positions.
1.11 Scrambles and Acryon are still on the same spots.
1.12 Acryon jumps on Beli. This vote screams BUS. None of the town were making a decision and Acryon didn't want to get caught being the tipping point to where he caused the townie to get lynched.
1.13 CDB votes Skelda, thus giving that wagon momentum. Acryon immediately moves over. Thus forcing a Skelda lynch.
Day 2
If Scrambles was so confident, Beli was scum, we would expect him to open with a vote on Beli. He does not. AFF immediately votes Beli within the opening VCA. Rather, the scumteam decided to frontload the bus after it was obvious. Farside, given her tunnelling of CDB would be reliable to attempt to persuade onto a derp wagon. So that's precisely what they did. Vote, lurk, pray for the other wagon to take off.
Day 3
Day 3 focuses on CDB and AFF I've been no so subtly shooting these wagons down due to my day 1 analysis (which I thought I had posted but hadn't whoops). They've been obvious town based on their play and their voting.
In post 1918, Titus wrote:In post 1047, Titus wrote:In post 1046, ChannelDelibird wrote:UNVOTE: Amy
Nonetheless, going to rethink. I want people to propose alternatives; even if I'm right, Belisarius had two buddies.
Conftown. Amy is town too most likely.
In post 1597, Titus wrote:I forgot to fucking post my VCA. LOL! Excuse me for being a dumb ass there.
My vote is on scrambles for WiFOM, piss poor voting/interactions and OMGUS. Scrambles hasn't voted or pushed anyone since it's become apparent I am not going to be the lynch today.
1.02 scrambles wagoned alongside farside who looks pretty obviously town from his play and reaction to Beli's lynch and the start of today.Beli attacked Farside pretty hard for his vote on Scramble's current slot (I know I've mentioned at least this before).
1.03Beli and Chaoslord (now CDB) are wagoned.Both scrambles and acryon's slots are on the counterwagon to known scum. CDB being Beli's counterwagon is also less likely to be scum.
1.04 The wagon on Beli has essential degraded. AFF has been parked on Beli since the start. That eliminates AFF as likely scum in my book separate from her posting. Farside22's wagon also has CDB and Beli on it. Given scum tend not to quick vote to start a counterwagon (unless it's a scumwagon they are countering), this is strong evidence that CDB is town.
Skip a few to end of D 1 wagons
1.09 This is the best proscrambles thing in 1.09 he's third on the wagon for Beli, but that's also a prime scum bus slot. Scrambles hadn't been voting since unvoting in VC 1.07. This gives him greater flexibility to bus if necessary. Acryon is still on TobyLoby by himself.
1.10 Scrambles and Acryon take the same positions.
1.11 Scrambles and Acryon are still on the same spots.
1.12 Acryon jumps on Beli. This vote screams BUS. None of the town were making a decision and Acryon didn't want to get caught being the tipping point to where he caused the townie to get lynched.
1.13 CDB votes Skelda, thus giving that wagon momentum. Acryon immediately moves over. Thus forcing a Skelda lynch.
Day 2
If Scrambles was so confident, Beli was scum, we would expect him to open with a vote on Beli. He does not. AFF immediately votes Beli within the opening VCA. Rather, the scumteam decided to frontload the bus after it was obvious. Farside, given her tunnelling of CDB would be reliable to attempt to persuade onto a derp wagon. So that's precisely what they did. Vote, lurk, pray for the other wagon to take off.
Day 3
Day 3 focuses on CDB and AFF I've been no so subtly shooting these wagons down due to my day 1 analysis (which I thought I had posted but hadn't whoops). They've been obvious town based on their play and their voting.
There.
Riddleton is likely town bc yesterday.
That leaves GC and CKD.
In post 1921, Titus wrote:Acryon my lynchpins are conftowns and work outwards. I put it in chronological order for understanding. I bolded the parts that make people conftown.
Farside- Fight with Beli over Scrambles vote
AFF - Tunnel on Beli
CDB - Always the counterwagon.
Riddleton - Strong lean town based on yesterday's vote pattern.
My history with VCA is my conftowns are not wrong. Occassionally I document the townbeard as scum though.
Harry Potter Large Theme is the best example.
Malakittens tunnelled scum. Last scum tried to takecredit. My analysis had two scums because one guy went eight days and never voted scum. He was the townbeard.
In post 1994, Titus wrote:Look at Harry Potter (Large Theme), Revolution Mafia, InuYasha Mafia, a confirmed clear of mine has never been wrong on VCA.
Farside scumreaders - Farside votes scrambles scum early and has a long fight with Beli over it? Do all three scum have such a protracted fight early? No. They do not.
CDB - He countered scumwagons twice. He ain't scum.
In post 2173, Green Crayons wrote:In post 2137, Titus wrote:GC, I am not lynching farside either. I doubt Day 1 was all scum bickering over lynching themselves.
lol
Refusing to believe that scum would bicker between themselves on D1 as a distancing tactic, but all-in on believing that Riddle-scum bussed both of his scum buddies (4th on D2 Beli-wagon; 2nd on D3 scrambles-wagon).
That makes all sense in the world.
Also, I just ISOed you Titus. You went from repeatedly stating that Riddle was very likely town to saying that Riddle was one of two or three scum candidates without any actual explanation of the change in stance.
In post 2179, Titus wrote:In post 2173, Green Crayons wrote:In post 2137, Titus wrote:GC, I am not lynching farside either. I doubt Day 1 was all scum bickering over lynching themselves.
lol
Refusing to believe that scum would bicker between themselves on D1 as a distancing tactic, but all-in on believing that Riddle-scum bussed both of his scum buddies (4th on D2 Beli-wagon; 2nd on D3 scrambles-wagon).
That makes all sense in the world.
Also, I just ISOed you Titus. You went from repeatedly stating that Riddle was very likely town to saying that Riddle was one of two or three scum candidates without any actual explanation of the change in stance.
You act as if that is mutually exclusive. My townread has softened but my read on him because of his play.
In post 2182, Green Crayons wrote:It's the fact that making a lot of noise about voting a scumbuddy and actually voting to lynch a scumbuddy serve the same purpose: distancing. It's just that the former is a safer version of it than the latter, but you're more inclined to believe that the scum took the more anti-win-condition distancing strategy of actually helping to thin their own numbers.
In post 2180, curiouskarmadog wrote:I apparently dont get it, or completely dont understand the theory behind this game.
again lets say titus, GC, CDB, or farside are scum...they leave me alive today because "they dont think I am scum (today)". we get to lylo and they (titusscum, GCscum, CDBscum, or farsidescum) leave me and riddleton alive for lylo?
who is getting the rope?
sweet god if you are town...if you think I am scum...or you dont want me to get to lylo...we need to do this now.
here let me give you a little motivation. if we dont hang me I will start scum hunting again....given my track record in this game, nobody wants that.
furthermore, I will probably be voting CDB...so CDB, get your vote on me while the getting is good.
or...farside...you might get my vote dear...sooooo..did you ever address GC's point about why you ignored my question about your scramble's case.
see
I have already started..
In post 2184, Green Crayons wrote:In post 2182, Green Crayons wrote:It's the fact that making a lot of noise about voting a scumbuddy and actually voting to lynch a scumbuddy serve the same purpose: distancing. It's just that the former is a safer version of it than the latter, but you're more inclined to believe that the scum took the more anti-win-condition distancing strategy of actually helping to thin their own numbers.
Clarification: It's not that I don't think that scum hasn't bussed this game, it's just that you're more inclined to believe that the scum took the more anti-win-condition distancing strategy of voting-to-lynchbothof their scum buddies over the notion that scum took other distancing actions that had less impact on their actual numbers.
farside's play looks much more like someone who didn't want to bus (refused to vote Beli despite constantly saying how bad Beli's play was, going so far as to say that either Beli or chaos was scum), but then when the second scum was on the chopping block but shy of a majority vote, thought a bus to push him over the edge would net her town points.
In post 1957, curiouskarmadog wrote:
In post 1772, Green Crayons wrote:^^^ To further expound why farside-townwouldwant to mention her previous suspicions of scrambles: farside thought that without a majority, there would be a no lynch. No lynches are obviously not good for the town. You would therefore want to persuade others to vote for the candidate you believe has the best chance to reach a majority vote hours before the deadline --even ifyou're simply attempting to avoid a no lynch. One way to help persuade others would be to mention all the suspicions you have previously posted about the player you think is best able to reach a majority vote.
farside didn't do that.
Even worse, CKD prompted her to mention all of her scrambles suspicions in this post, hours before the deadline:
In post 1636, curiouskarmadog wrote:so why vote here?In post 1626, farside22 wrote:Well my vote seems to go no where and the cbd "case" is pretty lacking.
Vote: scrambles
was there a case you saw (ie didnt skim over) you thought was good?
farside posted again before the deadline (Post 1640), but ignored this opportunity to help bolster a scrambles vote.
UNVOTE: CKD
VOTE: farside
When I went back to figure out what I thought you were flawed about..I reread this.
In posted this in 1636. I thought farside was scum and was just voting scrablestown because it was an easy lynch.
GC is right, she did go on in 1640 and quote a bunch of my posts and DID miss this post.
