Open 579: Pick Your (Chocolate) Power -- Game Over

[insanity018]

Votecount 1.1

Aneninen

(2): Romitelli, droog

gangsta_duck41

(1): davesaz

Mathdino

(1): Alchemist21

Alchemist21

(1): Flubbernugget

Romitelli

(1): gangsta_duck41

Flubbernugget

(1): Mathdino

Not Voting

(7): wgeurts, Hayate Yagami, Aneninen, farside22, Siveure DtTrikyp, Venrob, Amy Farrah Fowler

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2014-12-06 20:00:00)

[droog]

Not particularly, but why do you ask?

you were the first player to not rvs vote
wondered why

What was that vote right before yours?

i cant read appaently

[droog]

Not particularly, but why do you ask?

you were the first player to not rvs vote
wondered why

What was that vote right before yours?

Mine!

i like this unintentional order

[insanity018]

[Hayate Yagami]

So, my opinion in terms of numbers:
1. Scum are probably not going to double up so we can assume that there is one scum per number.
2. Aside from that number choices are going to be pretty WIFOMy and player dependent.

And

Vote: Flubbernugget

The anger feels fake to me.

[Mathdino]

I wouldn't put it past clever scum to double up and have the 3rd scum pick a separate number. It might be something I'd do out of audacity. Agree on everything else though.

I want to note however that there are definitely picks that scum would find very lucrative. Among them:
1-shot Vig
Roleblocker (just block everyone at the top of the draft)
Jailkeeper
Vengeful/Night3Vig

Since JK and RB are paired up with Tracker and Doc, not much alignment indicative in that. However, 1-shot Vig/1-shot PGO, along with Vengeful/Night3Vig are HIGHLY useful scum roles.

What this means is if you were near the top and you went for either of the above slots and you DIDN'T get them, there is likely scum above you. Be sure to factor this in.

[droog]

dino you looked at the old games right?
what choices did scum make in those?

[Mathdino]

Open 518, Jailkeep, Roleblock, and Universal Backup.

Open 506, Jailkeep, 1-shot Vig, and Vengeful.

Open 486, Jailkeep, Roleblock, and Rolecop.

Open 472, Jailkeep, 1-shot Vig, and 1-shot Redirect (probably trying to take the cop slot)

Open 542, Jailkeep, Neighborizer, and Universal Backup

So yeah.

[Mathdino]

So, my opinion in terms of numbers:
1. Scum are probably not going to double up so we can assume that there is one scum per number.

Actually, just looking at history, you're probably right on this. Power roles are more useful than trying to WIFOM the crowd by picking together.

[Hayate Yagami]

dino you looked at the old games right?
what choices did scum make in those?

This heightened my curiosity so I decided to go check myself. I checked the last six because I thought it'd give me a decent sample size. (Links go to either first page, if maf got all three picks, or mod post that provides draft selections, if not.

Open 542: Scum (Nachomamma8, gertaitm, STXHLGaiden) pick Jailkeeper, Universal Backup, Neighborizer
Open 506: Mafia (Deckard, Smudger, Cade) pick 1-shot vig, Mafia Jailkeeper, Mafia Vengeful.
Open 518: Mafia (Karnnage, Jennifer, Siveure DtTrikyp) pick Jailkeeper, Universal Backup, Roleblocker
Open 468 (Had to look through the Scum QT): Scum (Bojo, SafetyDance, Remembering Sunday) pick Roleblocker, Jailkeeper, (Can't find the third. Looks like it might have been Rolecop?)
Open 472: Scum (Siveure DtTrikyp, The Acting Method, Sir Arthur Dayne) pick Jailkeeper, 1 Shot vig, 1-shot Redirector
Open 427 (iam's chosen role can be found in scum QT) Scum (iamausername, pieceofpecanpie, Cobberflone) pick Vengeful, Role Cop, and redirector.

So, tallying it up
1 shot vig: 2
Jailkeeper: 5
Vengeful: 2
Rolecop: 1-2
Roleblocker: 2
Universal Backup: 2
Neighborizer: 1
redirector: 2

So I might look askance at somebody that picked Jailkeeper, especially early, but other than that I think it's going to end up being a playstyle/team choice and not particularly illustrative one way or the other.

(Double check my math, because I'm not very good at it. ^_^;)

Pedit: Damn, got ninja'd. NOT GOING TO LET MY WORK GO TO WASTE THO

Mathdino looks really town thus far so that's good.
And yeah, in one Scum QT scum explicitly said that they didn't want to double-up in order to avoid crippling themselves, and that seems to be a pretty common POV, looking at the number choices. So I feel safe extrapolating here.

[Mathdino]

Doctor is a very strong role as well. Had I been near the top I might've gone for Doc just to screw up the scum's strategy.

I think what we need to look at are the people near the top of the draft who went for Vengeful and 1-shot vig and didn't get it. Vengeshots usually hit town and Night 3 Vig is practically useless since you could die before then.

The people who went for redirector are probably just messing with the cop tbh.

[Aneninen]

Hi everyone, I haven't read anything yet in this thread but I know that I'm right, everyone else is wrong and this parrot is dead.

VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

Because he wants to evade votes by having a name like that but that won't work against me and you pretty much know it.

[droog]

interesting that jail keeper is paired with tracker
do you guys have stats on which rankings scum have?
itd be very interesting if the jailkeeper picks were all scum priorities
which implies they desperately dont want a tracker
or really want jailkeeper

[Hayate Yagami]

Hi everyone, I haven't read anything yet in this thread but I know that I'm right, everyone else is wrong and this parrot is dead.

VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

Because he wants to evade votes by having a name like that but that won't work against me and you pretty much know it.

Why post and toss out an random vote before reading the thread? The RVS could very well be over by the time you posted.

interesting that jail keeper is paired with tracker
do you guys have stats on which rankings scum have?
itd be very interesting if the jailkeeper picks were all scum priorities
which implies they desperately dont want a tracker
or really want jailkeeper

I can look into it, but what do you mean by rankings, exactly? Like, compare what the highest-ranked scum chose?

[wgeurts]

VOTE: Mathdino
Still has a hat.

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

Mathdino, why are you so sure of vig/pgo/vengeful roles being taken by scum? And if someone claimed one of those later on in the game would you be more inclined to lynch them? Surely vig and vengeful would help town by eliminating scum/idiots. And PGO... I guess it depends on who picks that, but it's a potentially useful role. The opposite is obviously beneficial to scum, but they're not exclusively scum roles. If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game.

[Mathdino]

PGO is a terrible role because you can't predict for sure when you'll get targeted, so let's get that off the table. 1-shot vig has a much higher chance of hitting town than not.

I'd actually be totally cool with lynching a claimed vengeful if we all vote on who they shoot if they end up being town. Vengeful and vig by themselves are much more likely to hit town than not and if anything are a detriment to town.

When it comes to vig, if the vig agreed to shoot someone the crowd decides on, sure I'd be fine with keeping them alive.

Basically my point is, something like Cop is 10x more useful to town than any killing roles are, and I have a problem with any uncontrolled vigs because if they're scum it's a free pass to kill off a townie they happened to be 'scumreading'.

[Hayate Yagami]

VOTE: Mathdino
Still has a hat.

Do you have any reads?

Re-vig debate:
On the other hand, a scum-vig can feel free to burn their shot on a townie and receive practically no accountability if we leash them. If we let the vig fire without being leashed, we then have data that we'll eventually be able to mine about the player. Why did they make that shot? Does it make sense with their prior reads? Is their rationale in general legitimate? Etc. Whereas if we leash the vig, scum-vig can snipe a scummy townie and go "Hey! Will of the people, man!" And we really wouldn't have any room to argue that? Heck, in a leash scenario, scum-vig doesn't even really need to commit themselves to a scumread on the person they're shooting!

I highly doubt that we'll all be able to concur on one target for the vig to shoot, and if there's multiple targets, there's practically no chance that they're all going to be scum. So scum can simply snipe off a popular town target and still get their free kill, only there'll be less basis upon which we can judge that call. (Not no basis- if the choice is between scum and a townie then we can question why they chose the town target later. But "Hey, people wanted me to shoot them!" Would be a perfectly legitimate defense, and I'm not sure I'm entirely comfortable with that.)

[Mathdino]

Gonna have to disagree with you on not lynching them. I'm certainly not proposing we lynch vigs just for being vigs; IIRC 518 had someone pull a "I didn't get vig so there's scum above me", turned out a townie went for vig just to deprive scum of it.

But see, the thing is, we have to take these things along with the vig shot into account when we're developing reads on people. I'm not going to scumread or townread someone solely based on the shot they take, since there's a TON of WIFOM there. Furthermore, if scum have a vig, they get 2 shots which are indistinguishable unless we have a tracker. The vig can claim they shot whichever one makes them less scummy.

I don't want to waste a townie dying just to get a read on someone. If there's a vig out there planning on shooting, I suggest leashing them, using their shot as a nulltell, lynching them if they don't shoot who we collectively want, and reading them by other means.

The "People wanted me to shoot them" being a legitimate defence is only applicable if we try to read someone based on their shot.
So how bout this. We can vote on who gets vigged with a

Vig: Hayate

or something and someone can tally up the votes. If the claimed vig doesn't shoot the most popular target (who isn't already lynched), we kill em.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: Gonna have to disagree with you on not leashing them.

Addendum: I like Hayate and I

want

to townread him but I've got a feeling it's the playstyle I like more than the behaviour.

In other news, starting off with townreads on droog and Aneninenanenanenanenoneninonymous, slight scumread on Amy; her post is pinging me with the devil's advocacy followed by an "If you're scum" argument.

Amy

, what are your reads? What's your read on me? If scum, why didn't you vote me?

[farside22]

I wouldn't put it past clever scum to double up and have the 3rd scum pick a separate number. It might be something I'd do out of audacity. Agree on everything else though.

I want to note however that there are definitely picks that scum would find very lucrative. Among them:
1-shot Vig
Roleblocker (just block everyone at the top of the draft)
Jailkeeper
Vengeful/Night3Vig

Since JK and RB are paired up with Tracker and Doc, not much alignment indicative in that. However, 1-shot Vig/1-shot PGO, along with Vengeful/Night3Vig are HIGHLY useful scum roles.

What this means is if you were near the top and you went for either of the above slots and you DIDN'T get them, there is likely scum above you. Be sure to factor this in.

I think you and I think of things differently. I had thought of taking vig to keep it out of scum hands. But on the other side if scum didn't get the first pick and I had first pick I'd think of choosing pGo because scum may kill me and I could kill them back.
Vengeful I imagine IAM when he was scum and targeted the most useful role for the town to die.

PGO is a terrible role because you can't predict for sure when you'll get targeted, so let's get that off the table. 1-shot vig has a much higher chance of hitting town than not.

I'd actually be totally cool with lynching a claimed vengeful if we all vote on who they shoot if they end up being town. Vengeful and vig by themselves are much more likely to hit town than not and if anything are a detriment to town.

When it comes to vig, if the vig agreed to shoot someone the crowd decides on, sure I'd be fine with keeping them alive.

Basically my point is, something like Cop is 10x more useful to town than any killing roles are, and I have a problem with any uncontrolled vigs because if they're scum it's a free pass to kill off a townie they happened to be 'scumreading'.

Out of curiosity with the research done did you or hayate look to see if the vig when town did shoot?
This is where I personally love to wifom scum with the role out there.
See the player picked vig or pGo may or may not be scum. You might say the player waits to shot for a night. Hypothetically he really picked pGo and may or may not activate the ability tonight.

What I have done proposing the above is, if the player is town, give the player an extra day to maybe live because the scum now have to decide is it worth shooting that player and although i don't practice it myself, more info can be had after more then one game day.
You have people that are dead and flipped (should be more then 1).
If the player is scum I forced him from holding back the shot for more analysis. PGo in scum hands is unpredictable though.


Droog: do you think an rvs wagon gives more information? If so what?

[Mathdino]

We do think of things differently, but that's good because I think you're on to something but I can't for the life of me understand it.

Can you rephrase your proposal for the vig please? Suppose someone claims 1-shot vig. What are you suggesting?

Also, no, I didn't look into that but I might when I have more time. Hayate's research is a bit more in depth than mine of course (probably does have more time) so I'll see if he wants to.

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

Amy

, what are your reads? What's your read on me? If scum, why didn't you vote me?

It's page two, I'm not going to look for any serious reads when there are none. If I thought you were scum then I would've voted for you.

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

Numbers-wise I don't think there would be two scum picking the same number. It's not worth potentially losing out on two power roles for the sake of a smidge of wifom that won't necessarily help.

[Hayate Yagami]

I don't want to waste a townie dying just to get a read on someone. If there's a vig out there planning on shooting, I suggest leashing them, using their shot as a nulltell, lynching them if they don't shoot who we collectively want, and reading them by other means.

The "People wanted me to shoot them" being a legitimate defence is only applicable if we try to read someone based on their shot.

So how bout this. We can vote on who gets vigged with a

Vig: Hayate

or something and someone can tally up the votes. If the claimed vig doesn't shoot the most popular target (who isn't already lynched), we kill em.

I didn't think that you wanted to policy-lynch vigs or anything, and I'm sorry if it came across that way! But even if we take the vig-shot as null regardless (and I'm not particularly inclined to do that, in all honesty. It's data that can be used, if WIFOMy), I'm still really unsure that democratically controlling the vig is all that great an idea, in that we're potentially letting scum have their say in the only town-controlled NK we have. A town vig can be a tool that could badly hurt the town if they misfire, yeah, but at the same time it can be a boon if we have a savvy shooter with good reads. Whereas if we have clever scum that know how to manipulate town consensus, it'll amount to an additional night-kill for the scum anyway. An additional night-kill that could pick off a scummy player, yeah, but an additional night-kill none-the-less. I'm really inclined to let the vig do their thing without our interference, but I'm pretty sure that this is a theory debate that we're not going to come to an agreement on. :\

Might as well toss out my early reads too:
Really liking mathdino. I like the initial push on nugget- more on that in a bit- and I've liked pretty much every post since then. The evolution of opinion on whether or not scum would double-up feels like town genuinely looking at the information and coming to a conclusion based on new data, and really doesn't feel like somebody who would have logically had discussion about votes in the scum private topic. I disagree with him on theory points, but I'm getting the feel that what he's saying comes from a genuine desire to help the town, which is good.

I like Amy's first post and how they interjected into the discussion instead of just popping in with a random vote. They feel like they're genuinely attempting to get feelers out for mathdino and help generate conversation. Want to see more from them but it's a decent town-lean. I like her response in terms of reads- I feel like scum would try to manufacture something when pressured rather than be defiant.

I honestly haven't found droog's stuff particularly inspiring or memorable, which is kind of weird as they have the second-most posts out of anybody in the game. Like, I feel like they're trying to generate conversation, but it doesn't really give me the townvibes that Amy's post on mathdino did. Hoping that changes.

Don't like wgeurts just popping in with a random vote in the middle of a conversation at all. (Same with Aneninen to a lesser extent, but at least he admitted that he hadn't read the thread.)

Nugget's first post just feels like insincere posturing to me, and I really don't like how he didn't actually say anything about dino's #18 and just went on about how he was mad for reals, instead of contributing anything of substance. A wagon here'd be pretty sweet.
Everybody else is null.

PREDIT:

Oh, you want to know that if in games where the vig is chosen the vig chooses to shoot? Sure, I can look into that tomorrow. Going to probably try and get some sleep now though.

(Also wow how did this post get so long sorry about that guys!)