Micro 407: Jurassic Park Mafia - Game Over

[fferyllt]

Either way, I think we can agree BBT is scum.
VOTE: BBT

Edit: The entrance came from me making a sandwich yesterday and realising how much it'd suck for town if it was all VTs and a Neighborizer. At which point I realised that one of you two must be a PR.

I kinda don't think so. It looked like you originally thought you'd be able to make this a me vs pine thing today (hopefully with my lynch happening, I imagine) but have decided to go after the VT for the win instead.

Weren't you raising cain about the votes hitting the thread earlier? something something LYLO? Or was that someone else?

I'm not putting a vote down tonight?

[fferyllt]

Do you think scum had any reason to think that you'd be able to neighborize again?

I was very surprised to find I'd been neighborized last night.

Is it usually a 1-shot role? I wasn't aware of that.

I don't know about usually. I should probably have considered multi shot because of a micro game I recently played that featured a multi-shot neighborizer.

That game had a neighborizer and a jailkeeper on the town side, and a goon and a (even night? I forget!) tracker on the scum side.

[Mathdino]

Objectively speaking, there is at least 1 scum in {Pine, BBT}, {Pine, fferyllt}, and {BBT, Mathdino}. The possibility is still open that Scripten and Pine are both town, in which case voting each other would result in a town loss. On the other hand, from your standpoint, BBT and I cannot both be town, so there's no reason to believe scum are gonna quicklynch BBT.

Also, the sandwich making realisation made BBT pretty much confirmed scum to me, so it'd be daft of me to go after either of you today when for me I have a 100% chance of hitting scum with BBT. I don't know where you got the impression that I wanted you to be lynched today.

[Scripten]

Fferyllt:

Who would you like to lynch the most atm?

[fferyllt]

It's LyLo so I'll just go ahead and spell it out.
Scripten's a PR, prob Neighborizer.
BBT claimed VT.
I claim VT.
Pine and fferyllt are friggin T-Rex and Pteranodon. Unless someone here is lying, or unless the mod decided to make us go up against 2 scum with nothing but a neighborizer, one of Pine and fferyllt is a town PR and I'm guessing the other is scum.

It was this post. but it was pine who jumped on this and called the scum team bbt/me.

From my perspective, pine is almost certainly scum, but it puzzles me what the scum team has been thinking. Nobody targeted scripten on night 1. Nobody targeted him on night 2. So, scum took him for granted as a partial claimed pr on night 1. And also discounted him on day 2. I would think that even if it's a town with a neighborizer and a watcher only, that scum have some sort of PR. And scum should have been looking for a PR last night. Why was Beck targeted?

[fferyllt]

btw my watcher flavor is that the pteranadon flying ability means that I can things above ground clearly. My flavor also indicated that I'm friendly (to dinosaurs, anyway) because I feed on fish, and that I'm important in protecting dinosaur civilization.

[Mathdino]

My guess: Beck was targeted because he literally told everyone he'd vote BBT out of the gate. If he did, it'd quickly become clear that one of {Beck, BBT} must be scum, and everyone would lynch BBT because everyone thinks Beck is town.

Question, fferyllt: If BBT was town, why WOULDN'T scum leave Beck alive if it granted them an auto win?

[fferyllt]

Fferyllt:

Who would you like to lynch the most atm?

pine, probs. I'm still trying to figure out MathDino.

[fferyllt]

My guess: Beck was targeted because he literally told everyone he'd vote BBT out of the gate. If he did, it'd quickly become clear that one of {Beck, BBT} must be scum, and everyone would lynch BBT because everyone thinks Beck is town.

Question, fferyllt: If BBT was town, why WOULDN'T scum leave Beck alive if it granted them an auto win?

I dunno? because I was being pitched as the next lynch, especially with Grib trumpeting it from the rafters in twilight?

[Mathdino]

Doesn't matter. Do you really think Beck is easy to convince on this? Do you think ANYONE would've dissuaded Beck from tunneling BBT to oblivion?

If BBT is town, the only move for scum that allows 95% chance of winning immediately is killing basically anyone other than Beck (just in case there's a doc/watcher) and letting town kill itself immediately.

Why would scum drag it out?

[fferyllt]

Doesn't matter. Do you really think Beck is easy to convince on this? Do you think ANYONE would've dissuaded Beck from tunneling BBT to oblivion?

If BBT is town, the only move for scum that allows 95% chance of winning immediately is killing basically anyone other than Beck (just in case there's a doc/watcher) and letting town kill itself immediately.

Why would scum drag it out?

On the face of it you're making a lot of sense. On the face of it.

First of all, it looks like you're assuming that scum would expect Beck to just throw down a BBT vote today. He's a volatile player, with a tendency to tunnel, but he does take in new info and reconsider. Take his scripten read as a for instance. there absolutely are scum neighborizers in mafia, though they usually show up in more complicated setups than micros afford. I've been scum in two mini theme games that had scum neighborizers, and we used those abilities to very good effect. if scripten is scum (which IMO is an extremely outside chance) then neighborizing Beck was hardly guaranteed to turn his read around.

[Mathdino]

What new info? Beck didn't want to be on the Grib lynch, he wanted a BBT lynch. He made this very clear; BBT or bust.

Consider: If scum killed Scripten, we'd have {Beck, BBT, Pine, fferyllt, Mathdino}. From your standpoint, assuming you're town and BBT's town, scum would be Pine/Mathdino. Now, Pine/Mathdino would want Beck to throw down a vote on BBT.
So that means town succeeding relies on you convincing Beck to not be a dumbass and vote out of the gate, or Beck having a total change of heart, which would make no sense because killing Scripten gives no new info.
Does that seem like a sensible expectation for scum to consider?

[fferyllt]

What new info? Beck didn't want to be on the Grib lynch, he wanted a BBT lynch. He made this very clear; BBT or bust.

Consider: If scum killed Scripten, we'd have {Beck, BBT, Pine, fferyllt, Mathdino}. From your standpoint, assuming you're town and BBT's town, scum would be Pine/Mathdino. Now, Pine/Mathdino would want Beck to throw down a vote on BBT.
So that means town succeeding relies on you convincing Beck to not be a dumbass and vote out of the gate, or Beck having a total change of heart, which would make no sense because killing Scripten gives no new info.
Does that seem like a sensible expectation for scum to consider?

If this is so, then either Pine threw BBT under the bus BEFORE scripten claimed for me, or Pine isn't scum.

[Mathdino]

That's the one issue that gives me pause with the notion of Pine being scum. I feel like it'd make more sense for him to claim he tracked me to the kill. All it'd take would be to convince you to vote me.

That one flaw would be the major reason I'd see fferyllt/BBT. On the other hand, everything before today points to Pine/BBT.

[fferyllt]

I can't stay awake any longer tonight. I'll probably be up at 3 am reading and posting again but right now I really, really need sleep.

[Pine]

I don't buy, even for a second, that there's both a Town Tracker and a Town Watcher. BBT + Ffery. Game won

[Mathdino]

No one's asking you if Pine/fferyllt is possible, haha.

Convince us it's ffery.

[Mathdino]

Scripten

, discount PoE, PRs, and any outside circumstances. Based on the hood, what's your read on fferyllt?

[Pine]

Not really sure how, tbh. From my perspective, I have proof (or close enough) that it's ffery + BBT

Why would ffery out her power in the Neighborhood with no results? Possibly a preemptive thing? Dunno. Honestly, ffery hasn't done too much that I'd usually call scummy. I mean, she good posted her way out of a hole D1, then coasted through D2, but that's about it. I only really came to a ffery suspicion by pure PoE until that claim. I'm thinking she wishes she hadn't nailed herself down to one single claim about now

I don't see how it's relevant, to be blunt. Ffery and I will both be alive D4. We're going to lynch caught!scum BBT, then she's going to have to decide who to kill. She won't choose me, because my Tracker flip would blow her only cover. So she chooses one of Scripten and Math to bring to endgame. At that point, it's a question of which is telling the truth

[fferyllt]

I'm perfectly happy with my claim.

And I think you just described precisely your problem, not mine, if you're scum. If you're town, then one of us probably will be dead on day 4.

And if you're town, then we need to lynch BBT today.

If you're scum, then lynching BBT most likely loses the game.

[fferyllt]

So, I'm trying to look past the utter necessity of scum-you calling me scum, and try to see decent reason for you to be town in all this.

I saw speculation about a rolecop earlier, but I think that scum would need at least a one-shot ninja in a game with both a tracker and a watcher. Maybe needed in a game with only a watcher for investigative, as well, but almost certainly a one-shot.

[Pine]

No, I just don't find two similar investigators plausible. I'm getting an itch to vote you, but I've got to stay with the 100% scum over the 99.9% scum

[Pine]

What's the flavor on your power

[fferyllt]

btw my watcher flavor is that the pteranadon flying ability means that I can things above ground clearly. My flavor also indicated that I'm friendly (to dinosaurs, anyway) because I feed on fish, and that I'm important in protecting dinosaur civilization.

[fferyllt]

I left a word out of my paraphrasing. I can view things above ground clearly.