Open 25 - Jester Mafia (Jester Wins/Mafia 2nd) - before 462
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Battle Mage Jester
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JDodge Accept it
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Romanus Mafia Scum
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gorckat Mafia Scum
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I just skimmed the start and end (hoping for a postgame look at the gambit) of Open 15- the difference between Vengeful and Jester is a townie getting lynched Day 1 gets the Vig kill...I don't see how the play there sheds any light on the play here.
Two different setups with very different mechanics.
My gut is telling me that someone advocating for letting a claimed scum/jester live is the other scum.
FoS: JDodge
Vote: No-Lynch-
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JDodge Accept it
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gorckat Mafia Scum
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JDodge Accept it
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gorckat Mafia Scum
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Gotcha.
1) There is a substantial difference between Vengeful and Jester (see my post 103).
2) The mafia don't know if Lawrence is the Jester anymore than we do. They only know if he's scum or not. Since they can't be certain he's a Jester, they have to NK him to avoid losing the game tomorrow when we all should lynch him.
I firmly believe that the mafia will throw the game away if Lawrence is the Jester and they let him live. I don't think making a jester/scum claim is in any way a +EV gambit in this setup.
If someone has an example of scuh a gambit in aJestergame and itworked, then I'll consider revising that stance, but as it is, we don't lose not lynching Lawrence.-
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YogurtBandit Goon
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JDodge Accept it
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If there was such angorckat wrote:If someone has an example of scuh a gambit in aJestergame and itworked, then I'll consider revising that stance, but as it is, we don't lose not lynching Lawrence.exampleof aJestergame, then I wouldshowyou. No need to get allangryand start usingitalicsin excess like Inormallydo.-
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gorckat Mafia Scum
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JDodge Accept it
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Sir Tornado Mafia Scum
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JDodge Accept it
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Battle Mage Jester
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^This. I didnt read the game, but i have read your posts, and i dont really understand. It would be very helpful if you could simply explain the example you have given in a few sentences.Sir Tornado wrote:JDodge:
Why would a Townie false claim? What is the logic behind it?Show2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%-
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JDodge Accept it
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Qman Goon
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gorckat wrote:What reasoning? You've made statements, but I haven't seen this thing you call 'reasoning'.
1) Lawrence claimed jester/scum
2) The jester can beat the mafia
3) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's no threat to the mafia
4) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's scum
That's my basic thought process on the matter. If the scum want to lose, they let a jester live.
I feel like a broken record...
That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier game.
We have two people we are in general thinking are the jester, the mafia has to try to NK the jester asap so they don't lose, so the rest of your post follows.One Hamster to rule them all!
One Hamster to find them!
One Hamster to bring them all!
And in the sawdust bind them!-
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Qman Goon
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damnit all
EBWOP:
That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier game.
should be
That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier post.One Hamster to rule them all!
One Hamster to find them!
One Hamster to bring them all!
And in the sawdust bind them!-
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Sir Tornado Mafia Scum
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I think Gorckat's logic is wrong. What if they try to reverse the situation with us and not NK the jester, but an innocent townie? Then, the onus to not lose shifts upon us rather than the mafia, and we would grow vary of lynching Lawrencelot.Qman wrote:gorckat wrote:What reasoning? You've made statements, but I haven't seen this thing you call 'reasoning'.
1) Lawrence claimed jester/scum
2) The jester can beat the mafia
3) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's no threat to the mafia
4) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's scum
That's my basic thought process on the matter. If the scum want to lose, they let a jester live.
I feel like a broken record...
That (Without specifing a person) was the theory i was mulling over in my earlier game.
We have two people we are in general thinking are the jester, the mafia has to try to NK the jester asap so they don't lose, so the rest of your post follows.
If I were scum, my strategy would be to keep the jester alive as long as possible (at least until day 3), because so long as he survives, the scum automatically get protection by doubt.I'm back!-
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Qman Goon
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Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.One Hamster to rule them all!
One Hamster to find them!
One Hamster to bring them all!
And in the sawdust bind them!-
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Sir Tornado Mafia Scum
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The question is, will the town risk it?Qman wrote:Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.
I won't.I'm back!-
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gorckat Mafia Scum
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(Non-angry, strictly for emphasis italics ahead )Sir Tornado wrote:
The question is, will the town risk it?Qman wrote:Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.
I won't.
Its not a risk thetownis taking- it is 100% thescum.Theycontrol Lawrence's fate. Iftheylet him live,theyare asking to lose the game.
They can avoid losing if the kill him, and while the town would be better off knowing a Jester lynch won't auto-lose, the scum are still in the hunt themselves.-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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JDodge Accept it
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WeyounsLastClone Mafia Scum
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I think it's very possible both Lawrence and Sir Tornado are scum. Sir Tornado tries to seed doubt now to protect Lawrence tomorrow.
If the Jester is NK'ed, will it be specified by the mod? Or is it just said that a townie is killed, leaving us in doubt if the Jester is killed or not.
I think my vote for BattleMage is a bit unwarrented now, so I'llunvote."I wish you hadn't done that."
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