Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[curiouskarmadog]

clearly I am scum at this point. such a devious ploy to not let the deadline hit and easily hang either GC or farside...no easy route for this scum bag. I could have easily got rid of GC (who voted me today) AND riddleton (who is going on and on and on about how I am scum). total scum mastermind.

not sure HOW Riddle can think i am scum still...but okay.

unless he is trying to goad me into voting GC?

Iron, waiting on you to chime in.

[Green Crayons]

Here's the disconnect:

It's still uncertain why you aren't trying to convince Iron to suspect your #1 suspect.

You know, because you obstensibly ~*~ could ~*~ be dead tomorrow.

[curiouskarmadog]

GC does have a point.

[farside22]

I missed the post where GC tried to convice iron to vote his number 1 suspect?

*Looks*


Nope, that never happened.

It's GC just shoveling shit

[Green Crayons]

I'm

voting

my #1 suspicion. I posted a tongue in cheek "vote farside" activity post in light of everyone else doing so. I'm happy to let Iron do his read through and address his questions/perspective once he's done.


Riddle is voting his #2 suspicion. Riddle has repeatedly urged Iron to vote his #2 suspicion, without acknowleding his #1 suspicion at all.


Totally the same thing. (This is sarcasm. Your attempt to chuck suspicion at me is clumsy and flawed.)

[farside22]

I'm

voting

my #1 suspicion. I posted a tongue in cheek "vote farside" activity post in light of everyone else doing so. I'm happy to let Iron do his read through and address his questions/perspective once he's done.


Riddle is voting his #2 suspicion. Riddle has repeatedly urged Iron to vote his #2 suspicion, without acknowleding his #1 suspicion at all.


Totally the same thing. (This is sarcasm. Your attempt to chuck suspicion at me is clumsy and flawed.)

You used the word convince. So I equate a reason.
Have you switched to riddle as your second scum read now? I lost track of who you would vote for if I'm not lynched category.

[Riddleton]

It's still uncertain why you aren't trying to convince Iron to suspect your #1 suspect.

You know, because you obstensibly ~*~ could ~*~ be dead tomorrow.

a) My #1 suspect isn't going to happen today whether I convince Iron or not. It takes 4 to lynch, and last I checked, Iron isn't a triple voter.

b) Nah, I'm goikng to be alive for LyLo. It's highly unlikely I won't be.

[Baezu]

I have prodded ironwood but he has not picked it up yet. If I don't hear from him by tomorrow night I will replace him

[Green Crayons]

I know you can do this math:

If you convince Iron, that's two votes on CKD and two on farside. Farside would presumably vote CKD to avoid a lynch, so there is three.

That's about what it looks like I'm going to net. Today looks to be like a plurality lynch.

-----

Why are you making it to LYLO?

[Green Crayons]

Ah, I guess if CKD and farside were tied, farside would be the lynch?

I'm still curious about why you're making it to LYLO.

[curiouskarmadog]

b) Nah, I'm goikng to be alive for LyLo. It's highly unlikely I won't be.

why? as scum, I would kill your ass. now that I have said that, as scum (that is not in my slot) I would kill your ass to set me up.

why is it so unlikely that you wont be alive for lylo.

the above statement and your belief that I am scum doesnt make sense together.

actually at this point, me as scum doesnt really make sense at all.

[curiouskarmadog]

why is it so unlikely that you

wont

will be alive for lylo.

edit

[curiouskarmadog]

why is it so unlikely that you

wont

will be alive for lylo.

edit

god dammit.

why is it likely that you are going to be at lylo.

[Ironwood]

Will post more tonight. Apologies.

[ChannelDelibird]

I really, really don't have anything to add until Ironwood is caught up, and perhaps not even then.

[curiouskarmadog]

if the above post(s) werent clear,

I would like to hear from Riddle about why he thinks he will make it to lylo.

and how he can have that belief AND think I am scum at the same time.

[Riddleton]

Well, obviously we can all agree if someone else gets lynched and is town, I'll be in LyLo to decide between GC and CKD.

By extension of that, if one of GC/CKD gets lynched today and is town, the remaining scum will have me in LyLo followed by their #1 'suspect' to convince me to switch to them -- which will probably be farside. That's just the way I see the gamestate. It's either a CKD-GC-Riddle LyLo or a CKD/GC-Riddle-probably farside LyLo.

I

[Green Crayons]

Well, obviously we can all agree if someone else gets lynched and is town, I'll be in LyLo to decide between GC and CKD.

lol

This is exactly what CKD is saying.

If either CKD or myself is scum, why would we keep you alive? You've been ridiculously self assured in your suspicions against us. It would be stupid to keep you to LYLO.

Unless if you're saying that CKD would keep both you and me alive, and I would keep both you and CKD alive - and we'd have to wager that you'd ultimately think the other player was more suspicious? That's also a stupid strategy, when just killing you would make things much more sense from a CKD-scum or GC-scum perspective.

Your death also makes sense from an anyone else-scum perspective, as you're not suspected by anyone still in this game except myself - and scum know they sure as fuck can't rely on me actually sticking with my suspicions - and maaaaybe CKD, but he's been pretty mild on that drumbeat for quite some time.

[curiouskarmadog]

Well, obviously we can all agree if someone else gets lynched and is town, I'll be in LyLo to decide between GC and CKD.

based on what ?!

[curiouskarmadog]

Well, obviously we can all agree if someone else gets lynched and is town, I'll be in LyLo to decide between GC and CKD.

based on what ?!

CDB, what are your thoughts on this?

[ChannelDelibird]

Given Riddleton's read on farside, the hypothesis seems reasonable enough. Not sure whether considering it so seriously is a tell either way, but the idea itself pretty much tallies with the general reads on Ironwood/me. Might be different now depending on what Ironwood says, though.

[curiouskarmadog]

CDB,

so given from Riddle's "angle" it makes sense for him to believe that GCscum or CKDscum, would take Riddleton to lylo?

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not sure it'd be that much more dangerous for said hypothetical GCscum or CKDscum to be 1v1-ing Riddleton in LyLo than it would for them to nightkill him to avoid such an eventuality. I haven't given it a great deal of thought, though.

[Green Crayons]

FWIW, Riddle's inconsistent theories as to who is scum and why he'd make it to LYLO don't necessarily strike me as indicative of scum alignment, just indicative of illogical thinking.

Only scum motivation that I can think of is either (1) Riddle-scum is being lazy, and wanted a quick reason to justify not pushing his CKD suspicions with Iron, or (2) Riddle-scum trying to lay the groundwork for why he survives to LYLO (but unlikely employed here, as such a preemptive and late-game groundwork is awkward and not really effective).

[curiouskarmadog]

here is my issue with this.

if he

really

felt like I or GC was scum, then he would not believe this.

so immediately I think, well maybe he doesnt really think that I or GC scum, which makes it not so much scum motivated, but a scum slip.

I guess it could also be that his thought process is illogical, but he has been pretty logical up until this point.

so Riddleton, work me through your "thought process" as to if we did lynch a townie today and I am scum or GC is scum, why you would make it to lylo.