Open 580: Tit For Tat - Game Over!

[Aquanim]

also just because someone was at the top of a wagon is not a good clear at all because of bussing. so yeah

Who is this directed to, and who is it about?

[Shinobi]

Nah, I don't think my case is bad.

Even if I did think it was bad, I don't know who else I would lynch.

[Aquanim]

Most of his posts are geared towards contesting townreads without giving his opinion on them either way, like his objective is to keep people suspicious of each other. His actions on pages 4 and 9 are prime examples of this,

The only post I can find on page 4 which remotely corresponds to this is him contesting your quasi-town read on Waffle, which he spent very little effort on and had a legitimate point.
On page 9 he asks you to explain why you think Spitfire is town (since he's currently voting Spitfire this as far as I'm concerned is entirely towny), and contests your TSO read (which I agreed with him at the time was not very persuasive). These are TWO posts out of his 35 or so at that point and I can't find any others which satisfy your description (they are mostly pressuring Spitfire/Acryon and random crap). Most of his interactions with YOU were of that form, but not his interactions with everybody.

and his whole "town is stressful" shtick is something I just don't buy from a newbie town perspective in terms of not having an agenda, especially since he's played elsewhere.

I still don't understand what the agenda behind this could possibly be.

I can go looking for other reasons you had to suspect Nether, but it'd help if you directed me to them.

[Shinobi]

I'll explain in the morning.

No more important midnight posts for me, thanks.

[Aquanim]

We have time, I'll be patient.

On that note, I don't want to see this lynch go through before I understand it.

[Shinobi]

Understandable.

[Netherspite]

Last scum. Nether jumps on Luca when the Pasch wagon begins gaining momentum, hoping to sacrifice a goon to save a role cop.

Vote Netherspite

I've explained why did I vote Luca.
It was a reaction test for you.
Funnily enough, I wasn't even scumreading him besides considering you with him a possible scumteam.
My reads the whole D1 were pretty shit.

Personally, I dislike how Nether sounded so ready at daystart, like he had planned what to say.

But at this point I'm find with lynching whoever, since there's 1 scum left. Has me lazy

Yeah, I did plan what to say. Because I was re-reading key parts of the game and preparing questions to learn what I want to learn from some people.
It was pretty late for me and I was a bit impatient to see who'll be killed at night (expected myself to be killed, lol), was thinking about the daystart while waiting.

===

@Aquanim

In fact, I deserve a lynch for my play D1. No good reads (may be besides acryon, I'm still considering his behavior very suspicious), not listening to sane arguments (when re-reading the topic I realized that it was pretty clear that Pasch behaved like scum in your exchange with him), I was completely fitting my signature.
Besides that, since we have only 1 scum left and it seems like there are many experienced players alive, I believe that we'll be able to win this game even if 1 or 2 townies will be mislynched.
So you can lynch me safely, I doubt that'll change the game result.

If you'd ask me however, I'd prefer any of the dave/acryon/Mala/TSO lynched first. They are my top scumreads at the moment (don't forget my reads are shit in this game though). I'd like to hear the answers from others I questioned besides Mala before thinking further.

[Malakittens]

also just because someone was at the top of a wagon is not a good clear at all because of bussing. so yeah

Who is this directed to, and who is it about?

you.

also there's no way in hell i'm being lynched this game. None.

[Aquanim]

also just because someone was at the top of a wagon is not a good clear at all because of bussing. so yeah

Who is this directed to, and who is it about?

you.

also there's no way in hell i'm being lynched this game. None.

are you saying there's a shadow of a doubt in your mind that I'm town?

as for the second, yes, I have got that impression

[Aquanim]

If you'd ask me however, I'd prefer any of the dave/acryon/Mala/TSO lynched first. They are my top scumreads at the moment (don't forget my reads are shit in this game though). I'd like to hear the answers from others I questioned besides Mala before thinking further.

(1) Can you narrow this list down for me?
(2) Are you townreading the Spitfire/Xay slot now?

[Netherspite]

1. Hard to narrow before they will answer my questions.
Mala looks slightly less scummy out of this list though (and I've got the answer I wanted to hear from her).

2. Not really 100% townreading, but considering the slot unlikely to be scum because Paschendale was focusing the slot so hard.
Bussing is a thing of course but I rather expect it to be coming later during D1 than Paschendale started to push this slot. The whole interaction between them does not feel like bussing for me.

I'll clarify the situation with my current reads on this game a bit:
I'm having strong townpile consisting of you and Bulbazak because I absolutely don't see how you can be scum in this game.
If any of you are scum I'll applaud really.
Also I'm having the most suspicious list consisting of those four I mentioned.
Remaining ones I consider as possible scum, but not really likely.

[Aquanim]

If I won't survive this night, there is a hint on where to look for the scum in my ISO and answers to my posts.
Can't say more.

What was this about?

[Netherspite]

I was talking about my breadcumb (I did an attempt to lure the NK to me and save a real PR from the random shot).
Since we're now in way better position (and since it didn't work anyway) I think I can reveal it:

Just because they didn't do anything really scummy in this game and I don't see them likely to flip scum.
Kinda bad idea to prefer them over someone who are forging reads or someone who attempts to look more useful after seeing the threat of the lynch for being useless.

Bulbazak answered to it while quoting only part of the breadcumb and stopped pushing me immediately, so I thought he noticed it. And thus if I'd die 2night I'd think there's high chance he's scum.

P.S. Yes, you can consider it VT soft.
That's 1 more reason why I'm not really any useful to the town.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

V O T E C O U N T

2 . 0 1

[/b]

(2)

Netherspite -

Bulbazak, Xayzeck

(L-3)

(7)

Not Voting — Netherspite, Shinobi, T S O, acryon, Aquanim, davesaz, Malakittens

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch

[/font]

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-12-31 23:20:00)

[/b]

[Aquanim]

Here's something I don't say very often...

Does a mass-claim simply solve the game now?

Town has a JK, Vigilante and (Backup) Role Cop. Since Luca was Goon the remaining scum is a Backup JK, which means the Role Cop is essentially a full Cop. By claiming and then shooting/checking/offensive JKing the unconfirmeds... is there any way for that to go wrong?

[Aquanim]

P.S. If you have a role don't get all excited and claim before everyone agrees the plan is foolproof.

[Netherspite]

Well if we assume that only scum has incentive to lie.
The best bet for scum is to claim VT.
In this case we'll have to lynch, jail and rolecheck every claimed VT...
We'll have 3 PRs + 6 VTs
1 VT to lynch today, 1 to jail, 1 to NK and 1 to rolecheck at night. However, if the scum is not lynched and not jailed, the best option will be to kill the rolecop and thus we'll lose the rolecheck result.
So worst case D3:
JK+Vig+4 VT, one of VTs will be confirmed by JK.
D3 we lynch 1 more VT and have JK+Vig+3VT, one of them confirmed.
at night we jail one of unconfirmed VTs and NK another. Game won.

Alternative case if the scum will decide to avoid performing NK at N2 to misguide the town into lynching the jailed VT:
At D3 jailed VT will get lynched and we'll have: JK + Vig + 3 unc VT
at night we jail one of VT and NK another. Scum will kill one of PRs (doesn't matter who of them)
This will leave us with 1 PR + 1 cfm VT + 1 unc VT, and if the scum will avoid the NK again ... we'll lose if we'll lynch the unc VT.

Another option is to avoid lynching jailed VT if there was no NK:
N2 start: 3 PR + 5 VT, we jail, check and kill; scum kills the cop
D3 start: JK + Vig + 4 VT; we lynch any VT
N3 start: JK + Vig + 3 VT, we jail & kill; scum kills the Vig/JK
D4 start: 1 PR + 2 VT, no way to know who of VTs is the last scum.

===

If the scum will play the best possible strategy, we'll have a flat 17% chance to lose (if we'll be wrong with the lynch/kill target 5 times out of 6 possible).
This is if we will won't be good at guessing who of the claimed VTs are bad, of course

[Aquanim]

If people only claim PR or vanilla I imagine that stacks it even further in town's favour (since scum don't know which is the rolecop), but still not absolutely certain to be a winning strategy.

Also, if the scum shoots the JK then they get a JK (or roleblock) power themselves.

In short, it's complicated.

[Aquanim]

I'm thinking I might not like the plan. I think I'll sleep on it.

[Netherspite]

If the scum will get JK powers it won't necessary help the scum. Because they can't use JK powers and factional kill at the same night in this setup.

[Netherspite]

However I agree that not disclosing exact roles of the PR will help us.
But I tend to think it will be better if we won't do the massclaiming at this point. We have many strong players and I think we'll either solve this game earlier or have a better position for massclaim later.

[Netherspite]

Also I don't like the fact

acryon

is ignoring this game.

[acryon]

Also I don't like the fact

acryon

is ignoring this game.

I was V/LA until after the lynch. I am available to post between 7:30A and 4:30P my time. The thread re-opened at 5:30P yesterday, so this is my first opportunity to post. Just correcting you so scum doesn't have a stupid excuse to jump onto some wagon of me.

I could wall as a big catch-up post, but I'm not going to do that, because I don't think it would be particularly productive at this point. Instead, I will post why each person is town or not.

Dave looks better to me. I don't see a scum-incentive for naming Pasch as someone he wouldn't mind pushing when there were fully

four

wagons with more traction than his.

I reluctantly think Nether is probably town. 952 actually read really genuine. If he was scum, he knows he is going to live and will have to end up answering for that post. There is zero benefit for scum to make that statement, and I can only see it really coming from town.

866 from Pasch does look like a last-minute bus. If Pasch is going down, it doesn't make any sense to push someone that is actually town, because we don't believe him anyway. Shinobi is probably town.

Aquanim is town. Hard-pushing your PR scum-buddy makes zero sense at all.

TSO pushing on Aqua is awkward at best. I'm not comfortable calling him scum just yet, but I think he's more likely scum than town at this point.

Tempest is town. He came in and questioned some of the more popular theories going around. Given that some of them obviously ran counter to the scum-wagons, there is no scum-incentive to do this.

I think Mala is town, which is exciting because it would be the first game we had together where we are the same alignment. 1007 is town. She also said she was for both a Pasch and a Luca lynch, and I just don't see a double-bus D1, especially considering one of the two was a PR.

I thought Spitfire was probably town, and I think Xayzeck's play hasn't made me feel any worse about the slot. I can't really point to anything groundbreaking that really sold me on him being town, but I already thought the slot was town, and he contributed in a way that seems consistent with that read.

VOTE: T S O
At least for now.

[Netherspite]

@acryon

Tempest is already dead, unfortunately. She was VT.
Didn't you notice?

[Netherspite]

Also, what's your opinion on Bulbazak?