Tempest is already dead, unfortunately. She was VT.
Didn't you notice?
I did notice and then when going through my reads proceeded to wonder why I didn't write anything up on her since she only showed up once I left for V/LA and then died before I returned So, I then apparently decided to write up why I thought a conf-VT was VT
Bulba is probably town. He voted Pasch and reserved Luca as his primary scum-read. I just don't see this from scum. There were so many other ways to go, and I just don't see scum voting to lynch their one buddy and saying that tomorrow he is going after his other buddy.
In post 1022, acryon wrote:866 from Pasch does look like a last-minute bus. If Pasch is going down, it doesn't make any sense to push someone that is actually town, because we don't believe him anyway. Shinobi is probably town.
Just noticed I concluded this by saying Shinobi was probably town. I meant to say he may be scum.
In post 1029, Netherspite wrote:I think it was more like a gambit in attempt to scum-paint Shinobi.
Anyway, it is WIFOM.
Yeah it's WIFOM, but I'm more inclined to believe my theory than it being a gambit. Nevertheless, I still think TSO is much more likely to be scum than Shinobi, and hopefully the picture will become more clear as the day goes on.
TSO clearly went far out of his way to push the best available counter wagon. Pasch had previously left that counter wagon and town read the target, most likely to clear the way so his buddies could push it without being associated by being in the same push. That it was me has no bearing on this analysis, I merely happened to have noticed it "yesterday" and made a note to look at TSO to find out where his push came from.
VOTE: T S O
Pedit: I saw the comment about Shinobi, and had thought him scummy earlier, but his play later in the day looked very town to me.
In post 965, davesaz wrote:Regarding the question on when I started scum reading Paschendale. It was before this post, but I don't know how far because I didn't post anything about it.
In post 630, Bulbazak wrote:Dave, calling someone a town read is not defending. Questioning someone is not defending. You didn't answer my questions. You need to show me where Xayzeck is defending Shinobi, not where he's calling him town or a town read. Second, you need to explain how questioning somebody is defending a player and also scummy.
I don't think I want to go down a rathole of disagreements on what defending means. Semantics are not useful here. I'm describing what could be an association, which is useful only if Shinobi turns up scum. Whether the term I use for what I'm seeing agrees with how you use the term is immaterial at this time.
As for my reads, Luca and Acryon are straight up scum reads. I've also been liking Nether and Pasch less and less, because their logic and motivation just isn't lining up.
I'd have to scan back through the thread to find this, but scum reads on Acryon from (someone) were giving me the jitters because of pressure of the form "Player A pressures Player B to give a read on Player C".
Now I expect you to say "why does that bother you", to which I'll reply "I've seen scum do that", and your reply might be ' "I've seen x before" statements are useless'. Or was that someone else in a different place? Anyway, I don't know if I like Acryon for a lynch unless that remembered uneasiness has been relieved.
Luca I can see. You won't find me trying to talk you out of it. Likewise Pasch, who is my 2nd strongest scum read and the player I'd push after Shinobi. Nether not so much, I see more misguided than scum, but it could be that he's a little harder to see as scum with the greater volume.
So you don't remember where nor why did you start scumreading him?
Because it looks like you attempted to distance from your partner by calling him scum in advance because you realized he can get lynched D1.
It just looked weird - you never mentioned any suspicion towards him or question him and then just called him your top suspect without any reasoning.
In post 1031, davesaz wrote:TSO clearly went far out of his way to push the best available counter wagon. Pasch had previously left that counter wagon and town read the target, most likely to clear the way so his buddies could push it without being associated by being in the same push. That it was me has no bearing on this analysis, I merely happened to have noticed it "yesterday" and made a note to look at TSO to find out where his push came from.
That's the most ridiculous thing ever.
I've played this set-up and I don't think scum have daytalk. Without daytalk, this would be impossible to coordinate. Hell, even with daytalk it would be impossible to coordinate.
I could be wrong about the daytalk, but I don't think I am. This is a bullshit reason to vote me, and the vote's coming from the guy I pushed all of yesterday.
Vote: davesaz
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
In post 1031, davesaz wrote:TSO clearly went far out of his way to push the best available counter wagon. Pasch had previously left that counter wagon and town read the target, most likely to clear the way so his buddies could push it without being associated by being in the same push. That it was me has no bearing on this analysis, I merely happened to have noticed it "yesterday" and made a note to look at TSO to find out where his push came from.
That's the most ridiculous thing ever.
I've played this set-up and I don't think scum have daytalk. Without daytalk, this would be impossible to coordinate. Hell, even with daytalk it would be impossible to coordinate.
I could be wrong about the daytalk, but I don't think I am. This is a bullshit reason to vote me, and the vote's coming from the guy I pushed all of yesterday.
Vote: davesaz
No daytalk according to the sample role PMs in the OP.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
That Pasch would leave your wagon so I could get on your wagon. It's like you think scumplay is so stilted that we had to perform this stupidly complex manoeuvre.
You don't actually think that - you're just making up a reason to vote me. And it stinks.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
@TSO: you're assuming coordination which my scenario doesn't require. Pasch can be buddying me so that his scumbuddies don't get associated with him, independently of them trying to push a counter wagon on me. A smart scum team would play it that way automatically without needing to communicate. Am I giving you too much credit?
Reads list:
TSO probable scum
Nether possible scum
The rest are varying degrees of null to town. I don't really have it organized to be able to rattle them off, and don't have much interest in doing so until we flip one of the above.
the one problem I have with TSO is that I felt he wasn't sorting out Bulba like he did in the past. Revolution mafia he was so aggressive that Bulba was scum from one post here yet he danced around it.
Also in regards to saving Pash. I think Dave could in fact be the last scum since both pash and Luca could have hopped onto that wagon to save Luca, but that's not what happened.
I could also be wrong and say that the other scum partner was inactive which makes me think Acyron. So Dave / Acryon / TSO are my choices of lynch tbh
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
I mean we have 9 alive with one scum left. We are in a decent position.
Masscclaim isn't the worst idea, but right now what the cop needs to do is go through the pool of VT claims, but the only problem with that the JK, Vig also need to be coordinated for this to work. We have three town PRs alive, one scum, 5 VT. The Vig could shoot one VT, JK jail another VT and the role cop target another for a result and then we could lynch a fourth which leaves the pool down to one.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
Problem we run into is that the scum could counter claim either of the PRs.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
Welp. My gf is gonna be so sad when she sees this math mistake. So I meant a pool of 6.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.