Newbie 1556 (Game Over)

[mrfixij]

I'd put strong odds on ddd, vote placement analysis suggests x3. I trust sa and jfsf more than I ought to right now, which means if we get no meaningful scans, then my next thought would be ddd.

[x3so]

Now that we have confirmed with one of PR claim, who found out I went nowhere. Well that was not so relieving to know.

But apart from that, claim was really not required on day one, I guess someone must have already said it. Tracker could have easily tracked me without saying or telling in post.

[mrfixij]

You're not confirmed and neither is he.

[Zaicon]

Vote Count 2.2

Badmonster (3):

SilencedAscension, Dgaul, Debonair Danny DiPietro

Debonair Danny DiPietro (2):

Jake from State Farm, 4nxi3ty

Dgaul (1):

mrfixij

4nxi3ty (1):

x3so

No Vote (1):

Badmonster

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Monday, December 29 at 8:00 PM CST, which is in (expired on 2014-12-29 20:00:00).

onion replaces Badmonster.

[onion]

hi hi, i'm replacing Badmonster. Reading up now, already on page 3. i see there that i have a ton of votes on me. i'll try to catch up in a hurry and figure out what that's all about.

I'm an old man who played mafia here on this site a good 5 years ago. I've always been meaning to come back, but then i graduated and got a job and yeah yeah yeah, but now i'm back at school getting a masters in mathematics, and it seemed like the time for mafia again.

[onion]

Blah, so now i'm on page 8 and i'm gonna go to sleep. What an interesting game so far though, a L-1 bandwagon on page 3 and a roleclaim page 6. quite the interesting.

I won't often post stupid piles of notes, but i'm going to this time because no reason. Here's the notes i took whilst reading so far.

Page01

005 mrfixij voted Jake (x1).
006 x3so voted 4nxi3ty (x1).
007 Jake voted x3so (x1) (trying to hard to look acceptable)
008 BM voted Dgaul (x1)
011 4nxi3ty voted mrfixij (x1)
012 SA voted x3so (x2) (if you were scum…)
013 Dgaul voted BM (x1) (omgus) (sad smiley faces)
018 x3so voted SA (x1)(omgus)
019 SA tryhards. thinks x3so is scum.
020 x3so backs down.

Page02

029 x3so backpedals some more.
032 Dgaul suspects SA over x3so.
037 BM Fos SA
041 SA “in what aspects am I acting suspicious?” thinks 029 is fluff.
046 DDDP thinks SA is nervous demeanor.
048 MissPompei friends SA.
049 Dgaul votes SA (x2).

Page03

043 BM votes SA (x3).
057 4nxi3ty votes SA (x4) L-1!!!!!!!!!! (the wagon was x3so, Dgaul, BM, 4nxi3ty)
058 Dgaul unvotes SA (x3) to prevent wagon.
059 SA suspects x3so and 4nxi3ty, Votes 4nxi3ty (x1) OMGUS, appeal to emotion.
061 Jake votes 4nxi3ty (x2)
064 BM points out appeal to emotion in 059.
068 1st post by MissPompei
069 DDD votes 4nxi3ty (x3)

Page04

077 SA suspects x3so, Jake, 4nxi3ty.
080 Mrfixij replaces Luca Blight, Unvotes from Jake (x0).
081 mrfixij likes SA, suspects BM.
090 4nxi3ty replaces in, unvotes SA (x2).
091 Jake replaces in, Unvotes 4nxi3ty (x2).
094 Jakes likes BM and SA, suspects x3so, Votes 4nxi3ty (x3).
097 Dgaul likes SA, suspects BM.

Page05

112 Anxiety votes BM (x1), likes both x3so and SA.
120 BM says Anxiety is flailing.

Page06

130 MissPompei votes x3so (x1), likes BM, DGaul and SA.
133 Anxiety Roleclaims Tracker, suspects Danny over BM. !!!!!!!!!!!!
134 SA Unvotes Anxiety (x2).
135 Dgaul votes Anxiety (x3) even though he roleclaimed.
136 mrfixij votes DGaul (x1).
141 DDD says scum should off x3so.
149 mrfixij likes Anxiety and SA, suspects DGaul.

Page07

151 Anxiety unvotes BM (x0), votes DDD (x1). “Completely convinced.”
157 DDD unvotes Anxiety (x2).
159 DDD votes Dgaul (x2). Calls Miss Pompeii a lurker.
161 BM Unvotes SA (x1), votes MP (x1).
163 Jake Unvotes Anxiety (x1), votes x3so (x1), no reason given.
164 SA votes BM (x1).
168 DDD Unvotes Dgaul (x1), votes MissPompei (x2), wants Dgaul to claim.

Page08

...

Right then. sleep now, work early tomorrow, then back to mafia when i get home near noon.

[Dgaul]

So, I'm not sure, are you trying to bring up a point from posting this?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm not willing to write off complex scenarios due to the possibility of his scumbuddy being a better, more manipulative player. You or Jake could fit that bill, possibly even SA. Combining that with the no kill and I'd say there's a good chance of major wifom being played by Scum.

You do know that scum can't talk during the day right? Are you really suggesting that before the game started that a more experienced player suggested to Dgaul that if someone claims a PR on D1 that he should push for their lynch anyways in a WIFOMy gambit?

Furthermore, if we believe Anxiety's tracker claim that means we have either a doctor or a BP townie as well; there's no need to assume an intentional no kill when there is a reasonable explanation for that.

~

moving on: choosing to follow SA and Dgaul onto Badmonster when you had both Badmonster and x3so as lacking opinions is something I am curious about?

Badmonster felt like they were playing Mafia and didn't know how to fake scumhunt; x3so's lack of opinions felt more like someone who had no idea what Mafia is.

[mrfixij]

I'm not willing to write off complex scenarios due to the possibility of his scumbuddy being a better, more manipulative player. You or Jake could fit that bill, possibly even SA. Combining that with the no kill and I'd say there's a good chance of major wifom being played by Scum.

You do know that scum can't talk during the day right? Are you really suggesting that before the game started that a more experienced player suggested to Dgaul that if someone claims a PR on D1 that he should push for their lynch anyways in a WIFOMy gambit?

Furthermore, if we believe Anxiety's tracker claim that means we have either a doctor or a BP townie as well; there's no need to assume an intentional no kill when there is a reasonable explanation for that.

~

moving on: choosing to follow SA and Dgaul onto Badmonster when you had both Badmonster and x3so as lacking opinions is something I am curious about?

Badmonster felt like they were playing Mafia and didn't know how to fake scumhunt; x3so's lack of opinions felt more like someone who had no idea what Mafia is.

I did not know that Scum cannot daytalk. That is very unfortunate for them, and I'd say even hamstrings then pretty badly. That changes my entire perspective and read.
UNVOTE:

[Jake from State Farm]

Badmonster felt like they were playing Mafia and didn't know how to fake scumhunt;

is it possible for a person who hasn't scum hunted themselves to criticize somebody else's scum hunting ability?

I have just looked over your iso and it's really just you responding to people. The closest things that I can point to is when you voted Astinus for his L-1 vote and his promise to catch up that never happened (which is funny because you promised to catch up in post 40 and never posted anything that resembled a catchup post which makes you guilty of the exact same thing)

Your vote for a lurker can't be classified as scum hunting because you refused to provide your "statistical analysis".

The most productive thing you have done the entire game was post 231 where you were trying to discredit my vote on you in an attempt to defend yourself.

Why can't you put that kind of effort into scum hunting?

Now I want to address your synopsis of Badmonster in post 296. Here it is to refresh people's memory

It’s immensely troubling that her strongest opinion is that she’s a she and her vote seems magnetized to whatever is popular at the time. SA gets railed for being manipulative and she’s right there. I get MP lynched for lurking and she’s on board. I don’t think there’s anything in her posts that I couldn’t get from the wiki or another player’s posts. This is a good vote.

1. You do realize that badmonster was the first person to accuse SA of being manipulative right? So that kind of nullifies the part where you imply she sheeped her way onto that wagon.
2. Badmonster voted Ms. pompeii BEFORE you did so that nullifies your 2nd point that she was on board with your lurker lynch...
3. The last part is a very vague response and I would dare say is the epitome of what you would call "fake scum hunting"

2 out-right lies and 1 vague reason that doesn't even make sense (nor do i think it is true ala the manipulative accusation she made towards SA is not something she could get off the wiki)

So i STRONGLY urge people to place their vote on DDD unless they can somehow justify why DDD's misrepping the facts with regards to badmonster was a pro-town act.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Dear lord Jake, you were better off leaving your awful vote on me without saying anything because every time you open your mouth you just embarrass yourself.

[Jake from State Farm]

Keep on discrediting me, even when I just proved you are lying. Its really protown...

Why did you lie about bad monster? I just showed 2 examples of you lying, how on earth is that embarrassing me?

[onion]

awright back to the grind. i got my tea and my notes and my computer and i'm ready to plow through 7 more pages. I'll probably be all caught up and ready to interact usefully with you people by tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Keep on discrediting me, even when I just proved you are lying. Its really protown...

Why did you lie about bad monster? I just showed 2 examples of you lying, how on earth is that embarrassing me?

Because you're taking things there at immense literal value just to try and score points. Sure, she was the first person to use the word manipulative but I was already poking at SA and then Dgaul placed a probing vote so that she placed the third vote on SA, there was already plenty of cover is the point. Same thing with the MP wagon, sure she placed her vote before I did but you keep insisting on it being my wagon and I cleared the way for it being a safe space with "I could also be convinced to vote for MissPompei of the four posts, for, ya know, having four posts."

And frankly somehow those attempts at point scoring were the least flatly wrong thing with that post, the earlier points were awful. But I'm done talking with you; you have no interest in the truth, you're just going to keep pushing your incorrect crusade regardless of what I say or do. If other people want to talk then I'm glad to but you continue to prove why my vitriol towards you is well directed.

[4nxi3ty]

goshdarnit Danny -.- it's your logic vibe that is holding up this wagon for sure.

It’s immensely troubling that her strongest opinion is that she’s a she and her vote seems magnetized to whatever is popular at the time.

-DDD

Weird. I also said Badmonster was "following the crowd" day one. Was the plan to buddyup to my d1 logic on Dgaul and Badmonster, expand a little, and hope to get a townread from me?

x3so's lack of opinions felt more like someone who had no idea what Mafia is.

-DDD

I disagree. I don't think x3so is as lost as his phrasing makes him appear.

see the backpedal here

That was very clear from your point, I would not consider you a regular townie by any chance, maybe more than just a townie ,
But since we connect easy, I would take pleasure to take one step back,
Let the air gets cleared, let the crowd gathered, read some more Chitter chatter.

maybe a rolefish too with that wink (If x3so flips scum this game, I'd say SA is definitely town)

[onion]

Awright so now i’m current! LETS GET STARTED!

Hi everyone, I’m onion. Just read 14 pages of you people’s shenanigans and made tons of notes and stuff, so now i can contribute and be useful! YAY!

In that i have all this wonderful data right here that i just spent hours compiling, how about a vote count? Scum love to hop onto wagons, and the time to hop is in the middle. People in the middle of wagons are more likely to be scum than people at the beginning or end. What follows is a list of how often people were the Nth vote on a wagon.

Placed 2nd Vote on Someone
Anxiety: 1
BM(me): 2
DDD: 2
Dgaul: 2
Fix: 0
Jake: 1
SA: 1
x3so: 0

Placed 3rd Vote on Someone
Anxiety: 1
BM(me): 1
DDD: 2
Dgaul: 1
Fix: 0
Jake: 1
SA: 0
x3so: 0

Placed 4th Vote on Someone
Anxiety: 1
BM(me): 0
DDD: 0
Dgaul: 1
Fix: 0
Jake: 0
SA: 0
x3so: 0

Sum of 2nd, 3rd and 4th Votes Placed.
Anxiety: 3
BM(me): 3
DDD: 4
Dgaul: 4
Fix: 0
Jake: 2
SA: 1
x3so: 0

I’d say that matches current suspicions pretty well actually. At least you people suspect the people the math say you ought to suspect. that’s something. So i guess you aren’t all useless.

-=-

A Minor Case of Anxiety (pun!)

I don’t think enough thought has been consumed by the lack of a night kill during Night 1. That really caught me off guard. If we assume Anxiety is the tracker, that means we have to be in C or 3, which means there must be either a doctor or a bulletproof. It would have made sense for the scum to NK Anxiety, as the claimed power role, and it would have made sense for the doctor to protect him. Another theory is that he fake claimed, and is the bulletproof, then the scum tried to kill him and it didn’t work. That doesn’t make much sense though.

Another theory is that Anxiety is scum. He weaseled out of the wagon on him earlier by claiming, but that doesn’t make the case go away. Now he seems under suspected for a role claimer who did nothing useful with his night action. He’s been hopping onto wagons more often than half the players, L-1’d someone page 3, and talked about being ‘completely convinced’ in 151 which is pretty strong coming from a day 1 ‘townie’. He cosies up to x3so in post 112, and then tracks him. x3so voted for Anxiety during the random voting stage, and again during the beginning of day 2. They could very well be a scum pair.

But if he was scum, then happened to the night kill? There’s only a 33% chance that there’s a something NK stopping in any Matrix6 game. the Jailkeeper might have imprisoned the person the scum targeted, or the doctor protected them, or the managed to hit the bulletproof. The only ones worth NKing would be Jake, DDD or SA, being the only useful content providers, and its well known that SE’s always die early, so its entirely reasonable to think it could have went this way. But 33% is still low.

Did i miss something? is there another option for what happened to the NK?

So Anxiety and x3so probably share an alignment. Its either both scum, going crazy with the roleclaim then safevouch the other, with something strange happening to the NK, or they are both town. Even if they are both town, i see it unlikely that a power role would play so crazy as to L-1 SA on the 3rd page.

-=-

Who else are the big league boys here? DDD and Jake next. Jake’s been after DDD forever, due to meta reasons, which may or may not hold weight. DDD’s been after Jake for a lack of reasons behind his votes. Its totally true. DDD’s 188 accurately complains about this (but includes more slander than i’d prefer). He’s complaining about 185, in which Jake says he explained his reasons in 94, but totally didn’t. “because gut” is a bullshit reason for anti-towns to get away with their anti-town shenanigans and you should be ashamed of yourself or scum.

but that’s not as good of a case as i have against Anxiety.

-=-

Not sure i have the Gaul to accuse you… (PUN!)

Ok, who else… Fix and his war against Dgaul. Its all based on Dgaul voting for Anxiety right after he roleclaimed. but now that’s all fixed now because fix was told that scum don’t communicate during the day? I’m not entirely sure why that’s a legit reason to stop suspecting him, but i never really suspected Dgaul anyway. If anything Fix came out a bit fishy from that engagement. This information can be made more valuable by learning about Anxiety first.

-=-

We do have a confirmed townie, its MissPompeii. And while she didn’t say much, she did say she suspected DDD+x3so (179) as a scum pair. Not sure how much we should value her input, but we at least know it was genuine…

-=-

So just to remind everyone, the old case on Anxiety, back when he was Astinus, was to do with his L-1ing SA so early on, and then stalling with promises that he never kept. Then Anxiety comes in with fresh ideas and the roleclaim comes out. Its the best I got.

Vote: 4nxi3ty

[4nxi3ty]

sigh what a waste

[Jake from State Farm]

1. I don't consider what you did "poking". Telling a person to not answer questions meant for somebody else isn't a good reason to scum read someone or even pressure someone, actually that's more of a town trait as it shows eagerness which I rarely see from scum.
2. Sure badmonster put the 3rd vote, so what? That means absolutely nothing. Badmonster voted somebody for a legitimate reason, in fact i'd even say that badmonster's reason was better than dgual's reason. Dgual voted cause SA said they were nervous. Badmonster voted cause he felt SA was being manipulative. nervous vs manipulative, i'd take manipulative 10 times out of 10.

3. Since when has 2 votes EVER in this history of mafia been considered "plenty of cover"? That doesn't even make any sense because from the looks of it badmonster was voting somebody who she was suspicious and that's pretty much the point of the game.


Now on to the whole MP thing.

1. Was I really insistent that this was "your wagon"? I don't think so. I was insistent that your reason for voting pompeii was bad
2. You accused BM of joining YOUR wagon (you actually took credit for it) but she joined before you did. and yet you refuse to consider that a lie? lol
3. You didn't clear the way for it being a safe space because you were not talking about lynching lurkers or inactive players until AFTER you voted Pompeii, which btw was after Badmonster who placed a vote on pompei before anyone else did. So you trying to say she was "on board with your lynch" is as I already said a lie.

Why would you lie about a player if you are not scum DDD?


I think it's funny that when i point out the truth you want to "be done with me" and accuse me of not being interested in the truth. When it's obvious that I am the one trying to clear up your misinformation and you are running away from it.


MORE VOTES ON DDD - HE IS NOW CONFIRMED SCUM. Town do not lie to get people lynched, DDD has lied

[mrfixij]

1. I don't consider what you did "poking". Telling a person to not answer questions meant for somebody else isn't a good reason to scum read someone or even pressure someone, actually that's more of a town trait as it shows eagerness which I rarely see from scum.
2. Sure badmonster put the 3rd vote, so what? That means absolutely nothing. Badmonster voted somebody for a legitimate reason, in fact i'd even say that badmonster's reason was better than dgual's reason. Dgual voted cause SA said they were nervous. Badmonster voted cause he felt SA was being manipulative. nervous vs manipulative, i'd take manipulative 10 times out of 10.

3. Since when has 2 votes EVER in this history of mafia been considered "plenty of cover"? That doesn't even make any sense because from the looks of it badmonster was voting somebody who she was suspicious and that's pretty much the point of the game.


Now on to the whole MP thing.

1. Was I really insistent that this was "your wagon"? I don't think so. I was insistent that your reason for voting pompeii was bad
2. You accused BM of joining YOUR wagon (you actually took credit for it) but she joined before you did. and yet you refuse to consider that a lie? lol
3. You didn't clear the way for it being a safe space because you were not talking about lynching lurkers or inactive players until AFTER you voted Pompeii, which btw was after Badmonster who placed a vote on pompei before anyone else did. So you trying to say she was "on board with your lynch" is as I already said a lie.

Why would you lie about a player if you are not scum DDD?


I think it's funny that when i point out the truth you want to "be done with me" and accuse me of not being interested in the truth. When it's obvious that I am the one trying to clear up your misinformation and you are running away from it.


MORE VOTES ON DDD - HE IS NOW CONFIRMED SCUM.

Town do not lie to get people lynched, DDD has lied

False. Town lies plenty often to get people lynched. It's usually an indirect lie though, like faking suspicion on someone to get a wagon started then slamming the trap shut. I think DDD is scum, but I don't think your case is bulletproof.

[Jake from State Farm]

@ onion

1. welcome to the new mafiascum where gut is used very often as a reason to vote
2. I am not voting DDD soleyly because of meta

[mrfixij]

Awright so now i’m current! LETS GET STARTED!
Not sure i have the Gaul to accuse you… (PUN!)

Ok, who else… Fix and his war against Dgaul. Its all based on Dgaul voting for Anxiety right after he roleclaimed. but now that’s all fixed now because fix was told that scum don’t communicate during the day? I’m not entirely sure why that’s a legit reason to stop suspecting him, but i never really suspected Dgaul anyway. If anything Fix came out a bit fishy from that engagement. This information can be made more valuable by learning about Anxiety first.

I'd like more of your thoughts on SA. You went straight to the anxiety wagon while ignoring ~7 pages of wagon on SA.

Also, I think DDD is right about Dgaul not being clever enough to back up a complicated fake claim setup and breadcrumb scenario. It's more likely that he's bloodthirsty town and earnestly didn't buy the claim.

I still don't like his vote, I still think he's scummy, but DDD put enough reasonable doubt in my mind after the realization that scum can't plan in real time to make me realize how utterly paranoid my situation was becoming. In addition, that was a bit of a gambit on my part because I wanted to start a wagon and clamp down on someone piling on, hoping that just being loud would be enough.

Also, my case on Dgaul was equal parts his vote on anxiety as it was his vote on SA, who you have conveniently omitted. In fact, nothing in your summary post really shows me an effort, and there's enough holes in analysis to make me think intentional exclusion, as well as not considering the possibility of scum no killing.

VOTE: Onion

[4nxi3ty]

ohhhh god Wat Is Happening
replacements were suppose to help right the dayoneclusterfuckship

Why is onion at L-1?

[Dgaul]

That's L-1. ^ Intent to hammer and all that please.

[4nxi3ty]

no, take it back X.x please

look at the effort onion put into replacing
and trying to figure out the game

[Jake from State Farm]

False. Town lies plenty often to get people lynched. It's usually an indirect lie though, like faking suspicion on someone to get a wagon started then slamming the trap shut.

Fair enough, I dislike those people though..no reason to ever lie in mafia.

But obviously that's not what DDD did, he basically falsely accused somebody of something (2 somethings) and sure my case isn't bulletproof but it's pretty damning and his reaction isn't what I expect from town