Open 580: Tit For Tat - Game Over!

[Netherspite]

Trying to accuse someone for wording is a scumtell, you know?
Why do you assume that I meant "being sure he's scum" under "it" and not "the vote" ?

[Netherspite]

Gosh, I even thought it would be too obvious that it was a reaction test because of all this "I'll explain later" and "I'll sheep".
It was so crystally clear, how can you even think it was not a reaction test?...

[T S O]

Nether I'm only skimming this and some of your responses make no sense at all.

Like, really, randomly telling us you will not defend your scumpartner in future games? The only reason you would have magically hit on this idea is if you're scum here who has messed up the tactic.

[Netherspite]

Idk, it's either language barrier or I'm explaining it bad.
I've said earlier that I've played mafia IRL and at sc2mafia a lot.
I know what is my scum playstyle and I almost never defend my partners. It's just not my playstyle.
I'm not having fun in obvious moves. You'll way more likely to see me bussing my partners than defending them.
Since I don't have

past

scumgames on this forum, I can only have

future

scumgames here and thus most likely you won't see me defending my scumpartners in my future games here.

[Malakittens]

So i apparently tried to comment on a nether post last night failed miserably and still dont know what the hell i tried to say

[Netherspite]

I didn't get it either

[davesaz]

Gosh, I even thought it would be too obvious that it was a reaction test because of all this "I'll explain later" and "I'll sheep".
It was so crystally clear, how can you even think it was not a reaction test?...

I did not see "reaction test" at all. Trying to call it a reaction test now makes it look worse, if anything.

[Netherspite]

Well, if you got me wrong I can do nothing about it. After all, hiding my intention at the moment of posting that reaction test was my aim (because otherwise it wouldn't be a reaction test). I thought that I wasn't obscure enough, but it seems that I was.

Anyway, there was no other possible reason to perform this vote switch without any reasoning if it wasn't a reaction test.
If I were scum I wouldn't do it because it's a clear suicide.

By the way, I'm wondering, who of those people "not understanding" that it was a reaction test are really townies who misinterpreting me and who is a scum who is intentionally going for my mislynch.

[Aquanim]

@Nether

: If we lynch Luca and he flips scum, who do you think will be the best lynch for tomorrow?

It depends on some other things. I have a clear way to determine that but can't disclose yet or it will break it.

At the time he made his vote for Luca, Nether clearly had some kind of plan in mind which was based on people's reactions to the vote. The important question from my point of view is whether he is a townie who honestly had this plan in mind, or scum trying to push the lynch onto Luca and who came up with the reaction test as a smokescreen.

I'll now explain the reasons my vote is on Luca.

It was more of a reaction test.
Bulbazak initially built a really fast and weak (from my PoV) case on him and was absolutely sure we should lynch him.
However, he later hopped onto another wagon and never seriously attempted to push Luca.

I think Luca & Bulbazak are scum partners. That would be a perfect scum play to semi-bus your partner and hop onto another wagon because you got "convinced".
This way you distance from your partner without creating any real threat to him.

I don't see any reason for the townie to do this thing.
This reaction test was attempt to confirm it (if Bulbazak really suspects Luca more he would use the opportunity to lynch him), but it seems that Bulbazak is really away until the deadline as he promised. So the reaction test didn't work.

First things first: I think this reaction test was poor, to say the least. My understanding was that Bulbazak did not switch from Luca to Paschendale because he thought Paschendale was clearly the scummier of the two, but rather because
1) consolidation was required to achieve a lynch, there had been somewhat more interest in a Paschendale lynch and since weekend was approaching I (Aquanim) would be more able to drive a wagon than Bulbazak
2) since he had posted very little a read on Luca would become much more clear given time than one on Paschendale
Neither of these reasons was eliminated by Nether's vote.

At the same time I don't think that Nether's vote had any significant likelihood of actually achieving a Luca lynch. This was my thought at the time as well - however I'm not sure whether Nether would have held the same point of view. If I'd been scum seriously trying to drive a lynch away from Paschendale it would probably have been Dave since he had 2-3 votes on him already. The other possibility for this as a scum play was that Nether was not seriously expecting to get Luca lynched but was looking to get towncred when and if Luca flipped; however, in that case it would seem more intuitive not to bother with the reaction test.

[Netherspite]

I voted Luca to create some momentum in his wagon to let Bulbazak use the situation and switch back to his "most likely scum". If he would do it I'd decide that he's town who really suspects Luca more. I'd unvote in the same moment he'd vote him.
However, his V/LA didn't let the reaction test to go as I planned (I knew there is a little chance he'll be available to post but I'd like to use even small chance to semi-confirm town).

I did this test because I thought that Bulbazak really didn't want to lynch Luca. I thought he's distancing from his partner and since Pasch is town (I really thought so at this point) he just distanced from his partner and jumped onto real mislynch wagon for D1. This was my opinion and this was what I tried to check.

[Aquanim]

I voted Luca to create some momentum in his wagon to let Bulbazak use the situation and switch back to his "most likely scum". If he would do it I'd decide that he's town who really suspects Luca more. I'd unvote in the same moment he'd vote him.
However, his V/LA didn't let the reaction test to go as I planned (I knew there is a little chance he'll be available to post but I'd like to use even small chance to semi-confirm town).

I did this test because I thought that Bulbazak really didn't want to lynch Luca. I thought he's distancing from his partner and since Pasch is town (I really thought so at this point) he just distanced from his partner and jumped onto real mislynch wagon for D1. This was my opinion and this was what I tried to check.

My point is that Bulbazak as a townie, or as scum with Luca, or as scum with Paschendale and Luca, would almost certainly stick on the Paschendale wagon at that point. Probably even if he were scum with Paschendale but not Luca, tbh, it would have pretty much sunk him if Paschendale flipped.

[Netherspite]

If he really would be a town who suspected Luca more and would not be V/LA, why wouldn't he use the opportunity to lynch someone who he does suspect more ?

[Aquanim]

Even with your vote the Luca lynch looked unlikely to happen, and given the amount of difficulty there was in getting a decent wagon going on anyone at all day 1 Bulbazak voting for Luca (thus splitting the votes further) would raise the possibility of inadvertently nolynching, or at best a compromise lynch on Dave or something with the help of the AFK votes from Acryon and Dave (IIRC).

[Netherspite]

Well, I didn't consider this.
Anyway, basically my reaction test was to have a small chance to confirm him as town.
I don't see scum motivation behind moving his vote to Luca. So if he would do it I'd consider him semi-confirmed townie for some time.

[T S O]

Why doesn't your post look like a reaction test?

[T S O]

It would be an astonishing coincidence if this magical reaction test of yours, as town, just so happened to move from the scum PR to the scum Goon, right?

[Netherspite]

I never voted scum PR and thought he's town?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

V O T E C O U N T

2 . 0 9

[/b]

(3)

Netherspite -

Bulbazak, Malakittens, Aquanim

(L-2)

(2)

davesaz -

T S O, Xayzeck

(L-3)

(1)

T S O -

davesaz

(L-4)

(3)

Not Voting — Shinobi, acryon, Netherspite

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch

Mod Notes;

• acryon is V/LA until 29/12
  
• Bulbazak is V/LA until 29/12
  
• Netherspite is V/LA until 06/01

[/font]

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-12-31 23:20:00)

[/b]

[Netherspite]

@Mod

I'm going to be V/LA since 27.12.2014 until 06.01.2015.

Will be visiting my home town for New Year, I'll prolly have access from time to time and will try to post at least once a day, but not sure if I'll be able to.

~Noted and edited into VC above. Thanks.

[Shinobi]

I'll be around but super lurky for a couple of days. Don't expect any big posts. Holidays and whatnot.

[Aquanim]

It would be an astonishing coincidence if this magical reaction test of yours, as town, just so happened to move from the scum PR to the scum Goon, right?

Yeah, I mean, he had to get really lucky not to be trying to move the vote to any of the nine townies in the game, right?

/s

[Netherspite]

I moved my vote to the one who Bulbazak had case on him.
So it is more about a coincidence he had case on a scum Goon rather than coincidence I moved my vote to him...

[Xayzeck]

Picking up prod

[Xayzeck]

So what happened to nether wagon.

[davesaz]

Can people who are town reading TSO refresh my memory on why? We've been pushing Nether for moving from Pasch to Luca, but doing nothing about TSO who was also doing everything in his power to save Pasch and wasn't aiming at someone who flipped scum. Isn't it more likely for scum TSO to aim at town than for scum Nether to aim at fellow scum?