Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[toolenduso]

Cabd was killed N1! He was a

Town Cop

.

Day 2 begins now.

Vote Count 2.00

Epic Warrior (0):
Hostile Intent (0):
Drixx (0):
++-- (0):
copper223 (0):
singersigner (0):
JasonWazza (0):

Not voting (7): Epic Warrior, Hostile Intent, Drixx, ++--, copper223, singersigner, JasonWazza

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: Jan. 9 at 9:35 p.m. Pacific Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-01-09 21:35:00)

[Hostile Intent]

V/LA until Monday

[singersigner]

Sparse activity this weekend due to work, no sleep, and taking care of sicklies.

Also, pretty shit, Cabd. Know how that is.

[++--]

Hm, this is an interesting development... and possibly a townread to HI from me, because I really doubt maf would want to kill someone on whom they tried to push a lynch. Anyway... because of reasons stated previously:

VOTE: Epic Warrior, for reasons I've stated already. If he's maf, I feel like Drixx or singer are his possible partners. (If I'm not supposed to vote this early in the day, tell it to me and I'll unvote.)

[Drixx]

Ouch. That's about as bad as it could go. I'm not used to seeing scum kills flips. Knowing is a bit of a gut punch but at least the scum can't fake claim with impunity. Is this common on this site outside of the newbie games?

I should like to see what EW has to say. If he just goes dark after I suggested taking another day to see if we could have a more firm read... I'm gonna feel pretty foolish.

OT: I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas or a Happy Holiday (whichever is appropriate).

[copper223]

VOTE: EW

for obvious reasons.

[singersigner]

I'm gunna go ahead and say that we need everyone to weigh in before a lynch occurs. I will add my thoughts when I look back at the EW wagon.

And...I have seen super quick days due to premature hammers, but the only time it's absolutely imperative not to vote first until absolutely all discussion is exhausted, is in LyLo. If someone town accidentally votes for town in LyLo then scum can both vote to hammer for the win.

Otherwise, I guess it's not really unreasonable that you both have voted for EW already. It's just holidays (so low activity) and I'd like everyone to add their thoughts on D1 (which I will tomorrow).

Who do you think was threatened enough by cabd to kill him N1...

[Drixx]

@SS - Cabd was putting pressure on people and asserting that they needed to claim. In hindsight it makes sense that he was the cop, although that's a pretty aggressive way to play the role.

You seem to be convinced that Cabd threatened someone so much that it dictated they kill him. What makes you think that? Cabd put pressure on me, EW and Mal to claim. Two of us did and one of us was lynched. So you seem to be essentially be putting a subtle FoS on EW and/or me with that last line. I'm getting a bit worried that I argued for EW to get another day and he's vanished. I'm hoping it's just the holiday and that he shows up and participates soon. I'm well cognizant that one of the last things Cabd said was that I appeared to be protecting a scum partner when I argued that we could and should let EW have another day phase whereas I felt that Mal's lurking would never change and so he was the better day 1 lynch.

The question in my mind atm, SS, is why you came down on the line of thinking that Cabd was killed by one of the people he was threatening to. He may also have been killed to make EW and/or me look guilty. It's also possible that the scum team read him as a very likely cop. Personally, if I was guessing after day 1, I would have suspected you or Copper as a cop/tracker before Cabd; however, I don't want to discount that he could have been targeted simply because the scum thought he had a high likelihood of being a PR.

------------------

I know the IC is dead, but I have a question that would be directed that way. With the public flip of a Town Cop, that means that the setup has to be either Row 2 or Column B, right?

[singersigner]

To answer your question: Yes

And, I haven't really looked back? I wouldn't say pressure to claim is indicative of pressuring a scum read. Claiming at L-1 is standard/our site's meta, so that's not really an alignment indicative thing. I'm talking about who we was actually willing to lynch/pressuring/questioning throughout the day. I thought he was kind of scummy at the end, and actually made that fairly public so that in case he was town, wouldn't just be night killed right away, as is standard for ICs. That's why I think, with the lack of universal town read on the IC, it's someone who might've been threatened that he wouldn't ease up his scum read. Again, I have to read back to see. I could just be wrong. But I'm busy/lazy right now so I figured I through it out there in case anyone felt like looking before I did.

[JasonWazza]

I know the IC is dead, but I have a question that would be directed that way. With the public flip of a Town Cop, that means that the setup has to be either Row 2 or Column B, right?

That is correct, also essentially the IC being dead just means the mod/SE's fill in the "answer questions for the newer players" only SE's aren't technically required to answer truthfully (most still do because answering falsely generally would backfire.)

[copper223]

Case 1:

both wagons yesterday were town, then if as is most likely in these cases scum separated themselves, we have 1 scum between {Copper, Drixx, HI, SS} and 1 between {++--, Copper, Jason}

- I know my alignment and made it pretty obvious so forget about Copper.

- Both Jason and ++-- are unlikely partners for SS given they both FoSed/voted her and called her scummy, so in this world she is not likely scum.

- I had both a town read on Choof and now on HI, so this leaves Drixx and one of {++--, Jason} as a team, but if Drixx is scum why did he WK EW?

Because most likely case 2: EW is scum, is the real world, this also implicates Drixx as his partner.

The NK points to a newbie team because they are the most likely to kill the IC just given he is an IC, in this case there is the added benefit that Cabd would have been scumreading both of them, moreover killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing myself so the theory Cabd was killed to frame Drixx and EW should be discounted or is at least very unlikely.

There exists a world were my reads this game are garbage and most likely SS or Jason saw something in Cabd's play that triggered the role kill, but I'm not going there without proof when up to now this game has made sense for me.

[Hostile Intent]

My bad, copper. You were right. I'd rather go Drixx over Epic Warrior though.

VOTE: Drixx

[copper223]

@HI
I think Drixx and EW are tied, and in the eventuality I'm wrong a flip on EW is much more useful than a flip on Drixx because of the wagons yesterday.

[++--]

If EW is scum, I guess that no scum was on the EW lynch, so that leaves {HI,singer,Drixx}, with Drixx and singer as most probable partners (partially because of the reason stated already, and partially because I doubt anyone would chainsaw a partner that hard).

If EW isn't scum... my reads are shit and probably I should simply flip a coin to get reads on people and I still would be more successful. That being said, with less assumptions than copper: {copper, Drixx, HI, singer, Jason, ++--} are the possible scum. I know I'm not, so that leaves {copper, Drixx, HI, singer, Jason}. I have too many townreads in this group (copper, HI, Jason) that, based on my current reads, a Drixx-singer team would be the team... which isn't entirely unlikely, but, obviously enough, not that likely that I should discount every other case, so I have to reevaluate my reads, which soon will happen.

[Epic Warrior]

@SS - Cabd was putting pressure on people and asserting that they needed to claim. In hindsight it makes sense that he was the cop, although that's a pretty aggressive way to play the role.

To be clear, cop can only investigate at night right? So he wouldn't have known scum/town D1.

The NK points to a newbie team because they are the most likely to kill the IC just given he is an IC

You seem to believe that Drixx and I are a scumteam. Drixx doesn't seem to be very nooby to me, and you postulated several times that I was perhaps not as nooby as I seem either. Just pointing that out.

[Hostile Intent]

She means in the sense of slots, meaning me, you, copper and Drixx.

I'm only partially willing to hammer Epic in the event there isn't someone else to do it before deadline, but I was super wrong yesterday so I'm not really doing this again just to be further insulted. So I'm just going to re-read or something.

[Drixx]

Case 1:

both wagons yesterday were town, then if as is most likely in these cases scum separated themselves, we have 1 scum between {Copper, Drixx, HI, SS} and 1 between {++--, Copper, Jason}

- I know my alignment and made it pretty obvious so forget about Copper.

- Both Jason and ++-- are unlikely partners for SS given they both FoSed/voted her and called her scummy, so in this world she is not likely scum.

- I had both a town read on Choof and now on HI, so this leaves Drixx and one of {++--, Jason} as a team, but if Drixx is scum why did he WK EW?

Because most likely case 2: EW is scum, is the real world, this also implicates Drixx as his partner.

The NK points to a newbie team because they are the most likely to kill the IC just given he is an IC, in this case there is the added benefit that Cabd would have been scumreading both of them, moreover killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing myself so the theory Cabd was killed to frame Drixx and EW should be discounted or is at least very unlikely.

There exists a world were my reads this game are garbage and most likely SS or Jason saw something in Cabd's play that triggered the role kill, but I'm not going there without proof when up to now this game has made sense for me.

On the surface, this seems like a great post, but there are quite a few problems with it. Also, I would definitely suggest against patting yourself on the back so hard. As someone with a bum shoulder, I can tell you that you really don't want to go risking hurting yourself in that way.

Firstly, you started out with "both wagons", even though there were three. Cabd made a call for someone to put a 4th vote on me and L-1 me to force a claim, to which I responded with posts which folks discussed and then the wagon moved on to other people. Furthermore, you have contradicted yourself when you suggest that "both wagons" are town, since you later suggest a scum team of me and EW, and EW was one of the the wagons you are referencing. Finally, your basic premise fails because you are doing a sort based upon info that you can't possibly have (unless you are one of the scum?), and even then, your premise would fail because you conveniently put yourself on both of those wagons (was this intentional to set up this post today?).

Secondly, you did a huge LAMIST and told the game to dismiss "copper" (speaking of yourself in the third person ... interesting) from their thoughts on scum. So far, anyone following along and accepting your premises seems right on track towards EW and me, just as you intend.

You pull out ++-- and Jason, without explaining why, and suggest they are unlikely to be partners with SS (again, without explaining why SS) because they FoS'd her and called her scum (Which I did, as well, btw). While the entire thought process of this point seems indecipherable, you end by clearing SS in the most indecipherable part of all. In what world do scum partners never FoS each other and take opportunity to distance when it appears town to do so?

Fourthly, you tell us you had a town read on Choof (although he was behaving quite oddly) and on HI (despite your fight near the end of day 1 ... that couldn't have been staged could it?) and therefore the scum must be among the people you haven't conveniently declared town, although you single me out for the "I'm sure!" honors by phrasing it "Drixx and one of..." (though you didn't make any case against me in the post), but we see why EW got left out (and the entire reason for this poorly reasoned mess of assumptions that have no real basis) in what comes next. "but if Drixx is scum, why did he WK EW?"

My gosh, now that we've swallowed all these poorly (or not at all) reasoned premises from you, we can't help but swallow the fish whole. EW just must be scum, and Drixx must have been his partner saving him. Convenient that you suggest that I "White Knighted" EW when I said I'd hammer him and had a leaning scum read on him, but I thought Mal was a better lynch because he didn't seem to be lurking for any reason other than avoiding putting much there for us to read (while a couple other people lurked strategically yesterday; I didn't point them out because I thought it was a bad idea to point out potential PR targets to scum). That's not White Knighting. What HI did for EW was a WK.

You finish off this post of assumptions and poorly reasoned premises by suggesting the NK was simply indicative of newbie scum killing the IC because he's the IC. This might be the worst assertion/assumption in your entire post. You suggest that killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing you; however, that implies knowledge that no doctor could have saved you. Only the scum know which game setup is in play right now, and I think you just slipped. On the (generous) assumption that you didn't just slip, I feel obligated to point out that any scum team would have had to consider a doctor as possibly in play, and given how much you think of yourself (See: fight between you and HI at the end of day phase 1 for your own words), you should probably admit that you were very central in yesterday's play. In fact, you drove quite a lot of it. While you might have made a good frame for me or EW, I suspect most scum teams would have rated you a high chance to be doc saved, if a doctor was in play, so your argument about Cabd being a worse frame job doesn't really amount to much. Add to it that he flipped as Cop and I'm not even sure the kill was motivated by any desire to frame (or not). It looks to me like the scum in this game sniffed out a PR, plain and simple.

Finally, in the end, you allow that you might have misread the game, a little, but you then declare that you are so great at mafia that you won't go against your post without proof.


Despite this horribly motivated and sometimes impossible to follow mess, I still have a town read on you Copper, but if this is how you have racked up the win rate you were bragging about last day phase, I suspect you have a

whole lot

of good players to go thank for that win rate. The amount of assumptions without any evidence or merit in that post are staggering. So many of the assumptions you made are completely vital to the conclusions you draw that any one or two being wrong would completely skew the scenario you are painting. There's no way every (or even most) of the assumptions you made in that post are spot on.


I'll allow that EW looks awful at this point, and I'm dirtied by having argued we let him live, but I already owned up to that before your post. I would have a vote on EW but I didn't want to put him at L-1 right away and leave the door open for a quick hammer, in case my gut and read are wrong. I could probably make an okay case against EW. He didn't help himself out by pointing out that he probably isn't as newbie as he's pretending, but doing so by telling you that you have said that. He still won't own up to his experience level, and that sits a bit off. At this point, he has slipped and shown he can think beyond the newbie 1st level of play, so there's no point in obfuscating it or being cute about it.

@Copper - I know I just spent most of this post beating you up, but there's a reason for that. You played a whole lot better yesterday. This post I quoted and ripped up was really poor by the standards you set for yourself in day phase 1. You can't possibly depend on so many poorly reasoned assumptions to all be correct. You are dismissing some people as potential scum for reasons that scum frequently use to hide in, and you seem to have written the post specifically to arrive at a Me or EW either/or choice to present to the game for today. You might get lucky if one (or both) of us is scum, but it won't be because you reasoned your way there. That post is a classic example of deciding something and trying to make up a path to get there. I think you can do better. I was a little suspicious of you yesterday considering how hard you drove the game, and while there were no real slips I could find yesterday, I cannot imagine a scum playing day 1 so fantastically then starting day 2 with this bad a post. That, more than anything, cements you as town in my mind. A little part of me; however, wonders if you aren't really clever and good enough to play right in plain sight like this as scum.

I'm afraid nothing I say is going to lead to any real analysis of anyone other than EW as a serious lynch wagon today (or me for my defense of EW ... although why HI isn't in the same boat for that huge defense of EW I can't fathom). If that's the case, then we ought to get on with it. I will hammer EW if that's what's necessary. I said I'd do so yesterday and what little EW has said today hasn't exactly made me feel better about him.

[copper223]

@Drixx
That post is simply ridiculous, make a tl;dr of your objections.

[Drixx]

Given that I was dismantling a ridiculous post, I thought it had a perfect symmetry. I did warn you that I have earned the nickname "Wall of Text" elsewhere.

I think you would get a lot out of my analysis, but I'll humor you - Your post is full of assumptions about things you couldn't possibly know (unless you are scum, which I don't think you are), and bad assumptions and assertions concerning basically everyone in the game. You clear some people as town for the same reasons you suggest others are scum. The entire post appears to have been made this way. Step 1: Copper wants to give the game a Drixx or EW choice for today's lynch. Step 2: Copper makes a post with a bunch of assumptions that are poorly (or not at all) supported, in order to arrive at said choice. Step 3: Along the way, Copper contradicts himself and generally puts up a terrible effort (compared to day phase 1) to try and get the game headed the way he wants.

[Hostile Intent]

Looking forward to copper's retort.

Don't expect much content for the next few days, I'd imagine, due to holidays/family/life. Thread'll probably pick up way more next year.

Pedit: fuck that, I read the whole fucking thing. It makes a lot of sense. Respond to it as is.

[Hostile Intent]

UNVOTE: Drixx

That should've been in the same post.

[copper223]

@HI
It makes sense does it? FoS HI.

@Drixx
I will read it all and reply point by point tomorrow, from what I read your so called contradictions are based on lack of understanding of the premise.

[Hostile Intent]

Pointed out several things I didn't see at all

[copper223]

@Drixx
Let's go one segment at a time

Firstly, you started out with "both wagons", even though there were three. Cabd made a call for someone to put a 4th vote on me and L-1 me to force a claim, to which I responded with posts which folks discussed and then the wagon moved on to other people. Furthermore, you have contradicted yourself when you suggest that "both wagons" are town, since you later suggest a scum team of me and EW, and EW was one of the the wagons you are referencing. Finally, your basic premise fails because you are doing a sort based upon info that you can't possibly have (unless you are one of the scum?), and even then, your premise would fail because you conveniently put yourself on both of those wagons (was this intentional to set up this post today?).

You don't understand (or pretend not to) how to do a vote count analysis, you have to pick the most indicative game situation and analyse the votes at that point in time, here the most indicative moment we have is the flip on Mallow, so obviously you have to consider his wagon and the alternative on EW, this is by far the most revealing point of the game as far as votes are concerned, taking into account previous wagons without flips where people were voting for third parties, voting for you or not not voting at all is only going to result in a big mess. If you really don't understand what VCA is about, see Mastin's guides: Mastin's Gudie to VCA

I have not contradicted myself, I have built a scenario with two cases, case 1: both wagons are on town, case 2: mallow was a town wagon and EW is a scum wagon.

I put myself in both wagons because I was on both wagons.

My basic premise is based on probabilities of how scum behave, if a buddy is going to get lynched in this setup you are very likely to try to support him tooth and nail, so in this case both scum are likely going to be on the Mallow wagon, if you have the luxury of choosing between two townies you are likely to split as a scumteam so you will leave as little associative tells as possible, in this case scum are likely to be on opposite wagons; i.e. one on the Mallow wagon and one on the EW wagon.

[copper223]

@Drixx

Secondly, you did a huge LAMIST and told the game to dismiss "copper" (speaking of yourself in the third person ... interesting) from their thoughts on scum. So far, anyone following along and accepting your premises seems right on track towards EW and me, just as you intend.

My analysis of the game is based on the knowledge I have of my alignment, it is of course part of the premise to how I reach my conclusions, here I state it so people who disagree with me being town can just stop and say, hey I think Copper is scum so I don't care about the follow up. If there is such a player kindly come forwards and tell me why you think I'm scum.