Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[copper223]

@Drixx

You pull out ++-- and Jason, without explaining why, and suggest they are unlikely to be partners with SS (again, without explaining why SS) because they FoS'd her and called her scum (Which I did, as well, btw). While the entire thought process of this point seems indecipherable, you end by clearing SS in the most indecipherable part of all. In what world do scum partners never FoS each other and take opportunity to distance when it appears town to do so?

I already explained why, we are now examining the hypothetical case where EW was a town wagon, given the split theory I explained in the first post, this implies with a decent degree of probability that we have 1 scum on the Mallow wagon and 1 scum on EW wagon.

The way Jason and ++-- respectively went after Singer at different times where there was really little to be gained from a bus leads me to believe they are not likely partners, Cabd was town and I know my alignment, so Singer has no likely partner on the EW wagon she could split from, that's why I clear her. This is obviously more speculative than what I've written before so if you disagree with the above show me why Singer and ++-- or Jason seem like likely partners to you.

[Drixx]

@Drixx
Let's go one segment at a time

Firstly, you started out with "both wagons", even though there were three. Cabd made a call for someone to put a 4th vote on me and L-1 me to force a claim, to which I responded with posts which folks discussed and then the wagon moved on to other people. Furthermore, you have contradicted yourself when you suggest that "both wagons" are town, since you later suggest a scum team of me and EW, and EW was one of the the wagons you are referencing. Finally, your basic premise fails because you are doing a sort based upon info that you can't possibly have (unless you are one of the scum?), and even then, your premise would fail because you conveniently put yourself on both of those wagons (was this intentional to set up this post today?).

You don't understand (or pretend not to) how to do a vote count analysis, you have to pick the most indicative game situation and analyse the votes at that point in time, here the most indicative moment we have is the flip on Mallow, so obviously you have to consider his wagon and the alternative on EW, this is by far the most revealing point of the game as far as votes are concerned, taking into account previous wagons without flips where people were voting for third parties, voting for you or not not voting at all is only going to result in a big mess. If you really don't understand what VCA is about, see Mastin's guides: Mastin's Gudie to VCA

I have not contradicted myself, I have built a scenario with two cases, case 1: both wagons are on town, case 2: mallow was a town wagon and EW is a scum wagon.

I put myself in both wagons because I was on both wagons.

My basic premise is based on probabilities of how scum behave, if a buddy is going to get lynched in this setup you are very likely to try to support him tooth and nail, so in this case both scum are likely going to be on the Mallow wagon, if you have the luxury of choosing between two townies you are likely to split as a scumteam so you will leave as little associative tells as possible, in this case scum are likely to be on opposite wagons; i.e. one on the Mallow wagon and one on the EW wagon.

I appreciate that link. What I missed was the Case 1 / Case 2 thing, so your entire first part of your post completely didn't make sense. Take away my criticism of you assuming both wagons were town, but you are still relying on info you don't actually have: namely, where the scum voted. You can use probability and statistics all you want, but they only work on a meta-scale. Law of large numbers and all. You can't actually draw a firm conclusion on a case by case basis, unfortunately.

[copper223]

@Drixx

Fourthly, you tell us you had a town read on Choof (although he was behaving quite oddly) and on HI (despite your fight near the end of day 1 ... that couldn't have been staged could it?) and therefore the scum must be among the people you haven't conveniently declared town, although you single me out for the "I'm sure!" honors by phrasing it "Drixx and one of..." (though you didn't make any case against me in the post), but we see why EW got left out (and the entire reason for this poorly reasoned mess of assumptions that have no real basis) in what comes next. "but if Drixx is scum, why did he WK EW?"

There is no singling out, you are the remaining unnacounted member (if you agree with the premises) on the Mallow wagon which based on the split theory makes you a likely scum candidate, once again my read on HI is just a read, is it right, is it wrong, I don't know. The important thing is you can follow my logic and form your own conclusions (for those of you who are town).

I already gave my take on Choof, he was baiting a wagon on himself and that doesn't look scummy to me (unless you are an awful player, which he gave some indication of not being in his ISO), as for HI, I have a problem there because I consider him so bad he may definitely be a blind spot for me, he'd get away with stuff I'd normally be shitting bricks on other players because "he is just HI", so idk, my best guess is he is still town atm.

Since you are the only one left based on the 2 town wagons assumptions and my reads on the players on both wagons, why did you WK EW so hard (we have a genuine conftown stating this in Cabd so this is not only my impression)? Either you just wanted the town cred and you are scum with one of ++-- or Jason, which I personally find unlikely, or the starting premise that EW was a town wagon was wrong.

[copper223]

I appreciate that link. What I missed was the Case 1 / Case 2 thing, so your entire first part of your post completely didn't make sense. Take away my criticism of you assuming both wagons were town, but you are still relying on info you don't actually have: namely, where the scum voted. You can use probability and statistics all you want, but they only work on a meta-scale. Law of large numbers and all. You can't actually draw a firm conclusion on a case by case basis, unfortunately.

You can draw conclusions because in most cases that's how it works, this is based on human nature and psychology, sometimes you get outliers or players that consciously play against these tells that's true, like any other tell in mafia nothing is perfect, it's just one way to look at the game.

[copper223]

@Drixx

My gosh, now that we've swallowed all these poorly (or not at all) reasoned premises from you, we can't help but swallow the fish whole. EW just must be scum, and Drixx must have been his partner saving him. Convenient that you suggest that I "White Knighted" EW when I said I'd hammer him and had a leaning scum read on him, but I thought Mal was a better lynch because he didn't seem to be lurking for any reason other than avoiding putting much there for us to read (while a couple other people lurked strategically yesterday; I didn't point them out because I thought it was a bad idea to point out potential PR targets to scum). That's not White Knighting. What HI did for EW was a WK.

I can see what you mean, let's not call it WK'ing then, you found a reason, which doesn't look really good to me, to vote Mallow over EW while still hinting that you would be ready to vote for EW (which you previously called town). This trying to keep your options open while indirectly lending a hand to EW is what I find scummy and potentially indicative of the two of you being buddies (once again this was not only my impression but also that of a confirmed townie who was NKed).

HI tried to bury Mallow which I find less scummy because it's a risky thing to do when you know he is going to flip town on you, but sure, also a possibility to take under consideration, in fact if I'm wrong on you and EW my preffered scumteam would be HI and Singer.

[copper223]

@Drixx

You finish off this post of assumptions and poorly reasoned premises by suggesting the NK was simply indicative of newbie scum killing the IC because he's the IC. This might be the worst assertion/assumption in your entire post. You suggest that killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing you; however, that implies knowledge that no doctor could have saved you. Only the scum know which game setup is in play right now, and I think you just slipped. On the (generous) assumption that you didn't just slip, I feel obligated to point out that any scum team would have had to consider a doctor as possibly in play, and given how much you think of yourself (See: fight between you and HI at the end of day phase 1 for your own words), you should probably admit that you were very central in yesterday's play. In fact, you drove quite a lot of it. While you might have made a good frame for me or EW, I suspect most scum teams would have rated you a high chance to be doc saved, if a doctor was in play, so your argument about Cabd being a worse frame job doesn't really amount to much. Add to it that he flipped as Cop and I'm not even sure the kill was motivated by any desire to frame (or not). It looks to me like the scum in this game sniffed out a PR, plain and simple.

Finally, in the end, you allow that you might have misread the game, a little, but you then declare that you are so great at mafia that you won't go against your post without proof.

So I don't really think there is much worth replying to here, other than noting how your read on me keeps oscillating drammatically, it looks like you want to desperately call me scum but then decide it's better not to do so.

That horrible premise you just mentioned turned out to be 100% accurate in both newbie games I played, 1551 with HI and 1543, in both cases the IC was killed N1 and in both cases 2 newbie players made that kill, so forgive me if I think that's the most likely case.

As for scum considering doc saves, was that the reason you decided not to kill me? If anything I see you slipping here, honestly with all the possible setups before the cop kill I did not even think about it, but if you know there might be a doc because you have a role blocker, then I can see why you'd think about this.

[copper223]

there you go guys, I'm off to bed.

[++--]

(Just dropping a notice that I caught a cold, so probably I won't be that active in the next few days (since I don't feel like I could really use my brain to think...). I'll try my best to analyse the posts written as soon as I get somewhat better.)

[Drixx]

I appreciate the walk through the thought process, by the way. I try not to apply statistical analysis or meta-analysis on a case by case basis, but the missing parts of what you were thinking are being filled in and it doesn't seem quite as completely made up and without any reasoning.

I disagree with some of your conclusions, but the ones I disagree with or question you are consistently saying are not certain and up for debate. This firms up my town read on you. Thank you.

I obviously disagree with the conclusion that I'm scum, but I understand it since I basically diverted the wagon off of EW yesterday. HI did so much more strongly, but you are basically evaluating HI on a different standard, right?

I would ask you to ISO me and read what I said about EW yesterday and today before your post. I still maintain that Mal was the right lynch yesterday, because he was lurking without any apparent strategic value. Cabd also lurked strategically yesterday, as did Jason and EW. Singer did to a lesser extent. Strategic lurking can be indicative of a scum player, a PR or just someone who's busy, but in whichever case you will see someone drop in and address some of what went on while they were absent (ignoring the rest) and then disappear again until they pop up again. I generally do a sort between players somewhat like (Very Active | Mostly Active | S. Lurk | Lurk | Inactive) where those correspond roughly to:

1.) Very Active - Generally you'll find the best players and very motivated VTs or scum in this tier. They interact with everything in the game.
2.) Mostly Active - Scum are most often found here, allowing them to avoid certain things without appearing to do so. Many town players also appear here. Interact with 50-75% of people and topics in the game.
3.) Strategic Lurking - Some players adopt this as their default play style so they don't give a tell when they get a role. Many players land here when they get a role, without meaning to. Generally interact with 25-40% of the players/topics. Will interact with some things whilest totally ignoring others in a very noticeable way, especially when doing a re-read after a couple of day phases.
4.) Lurking - A play style I hate to no end. These players avoid committing to the game in any meaningful way. When town, they make convenient win vehicles for scum in MYLO/LYLO and when scum, they all too frequently last into the end game without much challenge.
5.) Inactive - Complete inactivity. Generally mod-killed or replaced. I note them so I can read anything they put in the game if their slot is replaced.


I actually have a little notebook for forum mafia play and do a sort and update it throughout, along with notes. This helps a lot, especially when I get the most common role (VT) and the only way I can contribute is by evaluating people's play to try and figure out who is who. It helps just as much to have a really good town read on someone sometimes as it does to have some weak scum reads on several.

I'm sorry for the long post again. I think it will help if we play together in the future, or help those coming here to see my meta in the future

.

So all of that said, I still defend my actions yesterday, even if EW flips scum. Mal was firmly into the 4th category, and I've seen scum win because players in that category are left alive until the endgame way too many times. For me, we benefited from a Mal kill either way. If he was scum, then we were halfway home. If he flipped town, then we didn't have a convenient wagon for scum to exploit at the end game. Either way, if you get sorted into the Lurker category by me and don't pull yourself up out of it despite repeated prompting, I will always view your lynch as necessary and beneficial.

I hope that gives you a full context of how I played the end of the first day. I will have to read the VCA theory post and do my own analysis, but I could see a number of possible pairings with EW, and I could see some folks you dismissed as scum potentially being scum. My strongest scum read atm is EW at 75/25. His evasion of talking about his skill level openly seems like it has no point except he is scared that admitting it will make him look bad. If you can think of another motive, I'd appreciate seeing it ... but I've gone round and round and I can't think of many reasons to so stubbornly stick to the "I'm a newbie, if I did something good it was a pure accident" stance when the insights you pointed out by him were not the sort of insights you arrive at by mistake.

[Drixx]

@Drixx

You finish off this post of assumptions and poorly reasoned premises by suggesting the NK was simply indicative of newbie scum killing the IC because he's the IC. This might be the worst assertion/assumption in your entire post. You suggest that killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing you; however, that implies knowledge that no doctor could have saved you. Only the scum know which game setup is in play right now, and I think you just slipped. On the (generous) assumption that you didn't just slip, I feel obligated to point out that any scum team would have had to consider a doctor as possibly in play, and given how much you think of yourself (See: fight between you and HI at the end of day phase 1 for your own words), you should probably admit that you were very central in yesterday's play. In fact, you drove quite a lot of it. While you might have made a good frame for me or EW, I suspect most scum teams would have rated you a high chance to be doc saved, if a doctor was in play, so your argument about Cabd being a worse frame job doesn't really amount to much. Add to it that he flipped as Cop and I'm not even sure the kill was motivated by any desire to frame (or not). It looks to me like the scum in this game sniffed out a PR, plain and simple.

Finally, in the end, you allow that you might have misread the game, a little, but you then declare that you are so great at mafia that you won't go against your post without proof.

So I don't really think there is much worth replying to here, other than noting how your read on me keeps oscillating drammatically, it looks like you want to desperately call me scum but then decide it's better not to do so.

That horrible premise you just mentioned turned out to be 100% accurate in both newbie games I played, 1551 with HI and 1543, in both cases the IC was killed N1 and in both cases 2 newbie players made that kill, so forgive me if I think that's the most likely case.

As for scum considering doc saves, was that the reason you decided not to kill me? If anything I see you slipping here, honestly with all the possible setups before the cop kill I did not even think about it, but if you know there might be a doc because you have a role blocker, then I can see why you'd think about this.

I was trying to firm up my read on you, and the way you responded firmed it up. Please see 533, near the beginning.

Just because newbie teams killed the IC because he was the IC in two other games has no bearing on this game. To give it any weight is a logical fallacy. What happened in those games has no bearing on this game, unless the same people are involved (apart from you). Even then, it's a very poor player who settles his meta into a rut and doesn't change it up (unless it's a very precise rut from which he never budges, no matter what role he draws ... in which case it can be an asset ... but how many people can play precisely the same way no matter what?).

Finally, I dismiss your last sentence. When evaluating scum night kills, you have to try and think about what info they would or would not have had. Last night they would have either had the game narrowed down to 2 possibilities (if they have a roleblocker) or four possibilities (if they don't). Either way, they would have had to account for a possible doc save. That would have to impact their kill choice. If you are town and you're not trying to figure out what info only the scum know, then you're going to miss a lot of scum slips mate.

Please note my earlier post in the day asking about how the game setup matrix works. I was trying to figure out what the scum team knew last night and what they would have had to worry about. That's how I sorted their possible knowledge into two categories and realized they had to worry about a doc no matter what. (in fact, if I read the way the matrix works correctly, they had to worry about all possible town PRs no matter what).

I find it hard to believe that you wouldn't consider the scum POV when thinking through things, so your last sentence seems like a lie on your part in order to suggest that I scum slipped. Normally I would invoke Lynch all Liars, but I have an almost rock solid town read on you now.

[Hostile Intent]

That's not entirely true re: the setup. If they have a roleblocker, they know its only one of two setups; if they don't, they know its only one of four setups until a pr flip. So, now, scum knows exactly which setup we're in right now depending on their having a roleblocker or not.

I don't think you slipped, but I think you're logically misstepping.

[Drixx]

You're right HI. I believe that a PR flip tells the scum exactly the setup no matter what. I was referring to what they would have known last night when choosing whom to kill. I generally try to figure out what scum know and have to worry about so I might be able to see something in their kills. Further, it's really useful to keep track of what they know that I don't, in case someone happens to demonstrate knowing something that only scum knows. That's why I find Copper's statement that he hadn't given it any real thought a bit dubious. He plays well and has made no secret that he considers himself Grade A Premium when it comes to mafia players ... so I rate the chances that he doesn't think about this stuff as essentially nil.

As I said in 534 ... I would invoke LAL, but he has totally firmed up as a town read to me.

[Hostile Intent]

If its copper/Drixx I don't think this town has the balls to win this game, especially if we're just going to settle for the still-garbage Epic Warrior lynch on the basis that he's "less new than he lets on." We only have a remote chance if he actually flips scum, which I still don't see but won't greatly oppose today.

[toolenduso]

Vote Count 2.01

Epic Warrior (2): ++--, copper223
Hostile Intent (0):
Drixx (0):
++-- (0):
copper223 (0):
singersigner (0):
JasonWazza (0):

Not voting (5): Epic Warrior, Hostile Intent, Drixx, singersigner, JasonWazza

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: Jan. 9 at 9:35 p.m. Pacific Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-01-09 21:35:00)

[singersigner]

Wholey wall posts, batman!

So you guys already figured out the misunderstanding with copper's theory, but I figured I'd comment that while statistics and educated theories are great, Drixx is right that they can only get you so far. That's not to say that copper is wrong for using them to scumhunt, though I will say that it's weird you're willing to write off Jason and HI as potential scumbuddies for me and not Drixx, who came into the game with a vote on me.

It's statistically more likely that the IC will die first in Newbie Games. I have no verification on whether or not that's due to the inexperience of newbies being 'afraid' of the IC, though. I think experienced players are more likely to allow the IC to live and create WIFOM over them still being alive, but in that case it's about whoever they feel threatened by anyway, or their confidence in their ability to manipulate the conversation with the IC still alive.

@Drixx...so you're saying you think copper lied on purpose? With that purpose being to frame you? Why bother bringing up how you

would

LAL if you still have a town read on him, unless you believe the former to be true, in which case, why did your town read on him increase so much?

@++--...why were you concerned about how early to vote someone in the day?

[Drixx]

@SS - Copper could have easily just dismissed my post and gotten an EW wagon out of today. Instead, he went through and explained his thought process, and was unflinchingly honest about the places where it was his read or his gut feeling. That gives me a huge town read on him. I think he pointed to my comments on scum knowledge to see how I would react to it. I don't think he needed to lie and say that he doesn't consider what scum knows and how that knowledge might impact their play in order to test me, but perhaps he felt that would make what he was saying seem more necessary to respond to?

I would normally look at someone who plays as well as he does (He has basically driven this game in a very town way) saying something like that as a slip and invoke Lynch all Liars; however, in this particular case, there's immediate data at hand that makes him as solid a town read as possible. I also have reason to believe he is unsure about me and wanted to see how I would respond. Those things keep me from jumping on that obvious lie. I'm also not sure LAL should be blindly applied in all cases anyway, since every role has a reason to lie for the good of their win condition at some point or another.

[singersigner]

You keep saying it was an "obvious" lie, and then comment that there might be a grey area for policy lynches like that so even though he lied as what you think is town, then LAL doesn't apply here? What's the town motivation for "obviously lying" like that?

@copper...is Drixx's assessment of your lie accurate? Did you do it on purpose to gauge a reaction from him?

[Drixx]

Let me ask it as questions instead of just giving you my conclusion.

Given the fact that Copper considers himself a top notch (99th percentile we might say) mafia player, do you believe that he's never once considered what the scum team had to think about on night one of a newbie game?

I came to the answer pretty quickly. Either he has been scum in a newbie game, in which case he's completely familiar with the considerations a scum team would have to make, or he hasn't. If he hasn't, I submit the following: In any newbie game where the first day does not involve a mislynch of a town PR or a truthful town PR claim, all newbie game scum teams have to consider the things I pointed out before.

That puts the question to a very specific focus though, so just step back a bit for the wider view. Would a very good player actually fail to think through what the scum would know to try and figure out the motivation for their actions and also to figure out what info the scum team would have that the town wouldn't? For me, that's pretty basic level stuff. If you don't consider what the scum team had to think through, aren't you depriving yourself of a bunch of pieces of the puzzle? If you don't think about what scum should know that town should not, how will you ever catch scum revealing knowledge that only they can have?

If we polled the experienced players in this thread, I'm pretty sure we would find that we all do this in one way or another.

[singersigner]

So here's what I thought about:
-cabd is an IC and they usually die in Newbie games
-pending some super ultron mega universally town-read townie dying, you can usually assume the person who dies is one of two things: threatening, or a PR
-no flipped or claimed PR going into night means we can't really speculate anything until the NK
-now that we've seen the cop flip, we can assume one of three things: scum picked up a PR vibe, scum were threatened, or scum assumed he would not be protected at night with the existence of a doctor
-would scum risk assuming there's a doctor for a potentially suboptimal kill?

You're still not really addressing why you're calling him town if you genuinely think he scum slipped by acknowledging the existence (or lack thereof) of a doctor. What did you think about before knowing the NK/flip? What did you speculate on during the night, or after? What's the town motivation for purposefully "slipping" like that?

[Hostile Intent]

Are you pondering what I'm pondering, singer?

[singersigner]

I think so, HI, but if Jimmy cracked corn and nobody cares, why does he keep doing it?

[Drixx]

That reference went over my head SS.

[singersigner]

11:10

[copper223]

@Singer
I admit I forced it a bit to see how he would react later, but when I was dismissing his framing theory for killing Cabd over me I did not think scum would leave me alive because I'm a potential medic save.

It's still a bunch of WIFOM though, we all might have been BP so is not submitting a kill the best strategy? From the scum qt's I've checked the doc dodge save N1 doesn't come up much, it does give us insight in how Drixx thinks though.

You have the same problem Drixx had in that you are not following the premise; spilt theory on a tvt wagon predicts your teammate if you are scum is on the EW wagon so he is likely one of {++--, Copper, Jason,}, it is irrelevant for that analysis how likely a Drixx Singer scumteam is because you

were on the same wagon

@Drixx
I see your next walls and will reply when I've had time to check them.

[Hostile Intent]

VOTE: copper223

Nah.