Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[toolenduso]

Vote Count 2.02

Epic Warrior (2): ++--, copper223
Hostile Intent (0):
Drixx (0):
++-- (0):
copper223 (2): Hostile Intent, Drixx
singersigner (0):
JasonWazza (0):

Not voting (3): Epic Warrior, singersigner, JasonWazza

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: Jan. 9 at 9:35 p.m. Pacific Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-01-09 21:35:00)

@Copper: I know this has already been covered by other players, but please refrain from personal attacks. Thank you for apologizing, but as per my rules I'm going to give you a warning.

7. Personal remarks and insults are not welcome. There is no problem with criticizing how others play in this game, but as soon as it goes beyond that line there will be one warning before I force-replace you.

[++--]

@SS - Cabd was putting pressure on people and asserting that they needed to claim. In hindsight it makes sense that he was the cop, although that's a pretty aggressive way to play the role.

Even though this was a reply to something, still, some scum points go to Drixx for this. Reason: in experience (okay, real-time mafia, which has a quite different playstyle, but still), people who are giving actual, non-obvious explanations for a kill are more likely to be mafia.

- I know my alignment and made it pretty obvious so forget about Copper.

LAMIST + this "forget about Copper" doesn't look good to me. Why are you referring to yourself as "Copper"?

(Edit while writing: I see that Drixx also had the same concerns about this:

Secondly, you did a huge LAMIST and told the game to dismiss "copper" (speaking of yourself in the third person ... interesting) from their thoughts on scum. So far, anyone following along and accepting your premises seems right on track towards EW and me, just as you intend.

. It's a shame that his post overall is just exactly as worthless as the post he was reacting to, if we disregard this, small, and probably not even central part.)

and you postulated several times that I was perhaps not as nooby as I seem either. Just pointing that out.

At the first sight, I kind of disliked this question, since you know whether you're a noob or not, but now, I actually like it. A few townie points for that.

Singer has no likely partner on the EW wagon she could split from, that's why I clear her.

So... your entire game is based on the ONE assumption that the mafteam splits? That's pretty brave. I mean, you could definitely say that "most probably" or something, but I wouldn't guess that it's like over 75%, which means... you have to account for the other case, too.

I would ask you to ISO me and read what I said about EW yesterday and today before your post. I still maintain that Mal was the right lynch yesterday, because he was lurking without any apparent strategic value. Cabd also lurked strategically yesterday, as did Jason and EW. Singer did to a lesser extent.

So Mal was better than EW BECAUSE OF A THING THAT EW ALSO DID, as even you admitted? That makes no sense. At all.

@++--...why were you concerned about how early to vote someone in the day?

Because while I've played quite a decent amount of mafia previously, it was realtime and mostly IRL (with some online realtime ones, but that's more rare). And, whenever playing IRL mafia, I've seen that fast votes are usually a bad idea, however, having reread some finished games, I've seen that they are quite common here, so that's why I was asking.

Given the fact that Copper considers himself a top notch (99th percentile we might say) mafia player, do you believe that he's never once considered what the scum team had to think about on night one of a newbie game?

I absolutely don't understand what you were trying to achieve with this one: are you saying that copper is scummy for this, or that he isn't that much of a good player? If the latter, why is it important?


(Breaking the post here because I didn't want to address everything in one post. To be continued soon.)

[++--]

VOTE: copper223

Nah.

I never knew "Nah." was a legit reason to vote people.

@Jason
Why aren't you voting EW, did you change your mind from yesterday?

Since I'm about to answer your question to me as soon as I'll finish reading (and, of course, after some thinking): why did you ask Jason about this while, as of this point, he had only one comment, and, if he'd have voted EW at that point, that'd have put him to a VERY FAST L-1?

I have found it very hard to talk myself into you being scum Copper, because it would take exceptionally bold scum to run the game the way you have, but I can't explain away your obsession with a theory you admit has several points of possible failure. I can't explain away how you can say I look townie in one post and then make a completely invalid analogy in another post to advance said theory. I know you are smart and can reason quite well, so simple mistakes like glaringly bad analogies shouldn't come from you. As much as I wouldn't have believed that this would happen today, perhaps the reason scum didn't kill you last night is because you are on the team.

Vote: Copper223

IF you have found it very hard to talk yourself into copper being scum... wouldn't that mean that you're probably wrong, since you don't really believe it, but you had to talk yourself into it, especially since...

1.) Very Active - Generally you'll find the best players and very motivated VTs or scum in this tier. They interact with everything in the game.
2.) Mostly Active - Scum are most often found here

and copper is definitely in the Very Active category? Also, you've said that copper is smart and reasons quite welll - wouldn't that mean, that, instead of being stubborn, he'd adapt his playstyle according to his best interests, if he was scum?

That's all I've found that I should react to directly. General remarks in the next post, possibly reads too. (Definitely in at most an hour.)

[Drixx]

@++-- - Mal fell into my 4th category: Lurking without any contribution or strategic value. As I noted in the post you quoted from, I push people in that category to get active and if they don't, I consider them policy lynches. I've seen way too many games where they made it into LYLO and were either an easy lynch for the scum win or they ended up being scum and were able to pull a win out (much more often the lurker is left alive by scum for the easy late wagon, but I have occasionally seen scum win by hard lurking).

Anything else I might say, I've already said, except this: The verb construction at the start of post 565 is in the Perfect tense (I teach Greek grammar and English) which speaks of an action that completed in the past but has consequences ongoing into the present (and possibly beyond). It is very correct to say that I have found it hard throughout this day phase to convince myself that Copper was scum, for the reasons I gave already. I won't muddy up the waters with any further long posts.

[++--]

So... generally speaking, partially thanks to my lack of activity, too (sorry for that, but I've explained it previously), this game has turned into too much of a "Drixx going against copper, so, both scumreading eachother after a while". copper seems to be very stubborn, while, Drixx's main contribution is defending himself via attacking basically every single post by copper. Many of HI's additions are entirely useless - in fact, a high number of mostly contentless posts. singer's additions are okay, I guess. Nothing to say about Jason's or EW's post as a general remark, for obvious reason. Now, for the reads... again, from least scummy to most scummy:

copper223 - townread. This might be quite strange since I mostly agree with Drixx's posts about copper's inconsistencies, but there is a good reason for it. Namely, and, I hope copper doesn't find this insulting, but his play is EXACTLY the play of those town players who overrate themselves way too much. Not of the scums, those usually rather get very defensive (and brag about their skills). To me, it seems very likely, that he is a townie, who thinks his skills are 10/10, while, at best, 7/10, probably even less. Also, from his attitude, it's obvious, that, probably because of himself overestimating his skills, he just simply cannot accept that his theory is wrong, therefore, even when proven to be false, sticks with it.

singersigner - probably town. I've only spotted one contradiction, which, in my first readlist, I have called "pretty huge", but since... as big self-contradictory statements have been made, and this small number sounds quite good. I also like how she makes observations without trying to lead in any kind - based on the recent behaviour, even the great amount of questions in the beginning are acceptable, as, rereading them, none of those posts seem to be trying to take over any lead, which is a very huge townie point for a highly active player, in my opinion. This has resulted in that my original biggest FoS is now my second biggest townread, tied with Drixx.

Drixx - okay, it might seem that simple activity buys a townread from me, but... I mean, he's been mostly consistent (except from this last vote, which I absolutely understand why he did it, but still... it just... makes no sense (no, that's not a contradiction: if I imagine myself to his situation, I think probably I'd have done the same, but seeing the debate from the outside, it's absolutely ridiculous)), good activity, and useful remarks. A bit too concentrated on self-defense, though. Tied with singer.

JasonWazza - if he makes a post, I tend to like it. But there is this "if"... because it rarely happens.

Hostile Intent - what we have here is: white knighting my biggest scumread, and a gigantic amount of pointless posts that do not contribute to the actual discussion. Doesn't seem very nice.

Epic Warrior - I've said a lot about him already, so just to sum up: no actual contributions, very active when attacked, not active at all otherwise.



Now, again, some stuff that seems to be concerning to me, formulated as (rhetorical) questions: 1. HI and EW are my 2 biggest scumreads. But... they don't seem to be a likely scum team. I mean, does anyone here find it likely that a scum would chainsaw their partner so badly? Because I don't. But if that's the case that they aren't the scumteam... doesn't that mean that my reads are crap? But, if, that's the case... am I wrong to say that my readlists are actually more antitown than protown? 2. What if we're seeing a very well constructed bus between copper and Drixx? These drifts in their reads about eachother seem strange - but, again, maybe it's because they're the two dominant players? What if they are fooling everyone? But, if yes, why would they do that? 3. Is lurking a good reason to scumread? Is it a good thing to scumread Jason more than Drixx or singer just because he's lurking? Or, in fact, could it, especially since his posts are quite townie-ish, if he posts, that this should, in fact be a towntell, instead of a scumtell? 4. What if I'm stubborn for townreading copper yet again, with the "he's probably a townie who's overrating himself"? Can't it be a case that actually I'm overrating myself, and therefore, try to find new and new reasons to support my theory about him being town, while he acts otherwise?

(Note: while these questions are intended to be rhetorical questions, that are concerning to me, but, if you think that you have an answer for them, still feel free to add your thoughts on them.)

[Drixx]

@++-- - I've seen scum hardcore white knight a partner before. It's a super gutsy strategy, but it can work if it isn't used too frequently within a group of players. I'm not saying I think EW + HI is the scum team; however, I wouldn't completely dismiss it from evaluation based upon that super hardcore defense.

[singersigner]

@++-- - I've seen scum hardcore white knight a partner before. It's a super gutsy strategy, but it can work if it isn't used too frequently within a group of players. I'm not saying I think EW + HI is the scum team; however, I wouldn't completely dismiss it from evaluation based upon that super hardcore defense.

You keep saying "scum can go this, scum can do that" acknowledging the improbability it is that they would do these things. It sounds like you're trying to negate how we're making educated guesses by shutting down every attempt to narrow down our possibilities.

It's like you're saying "but they could still be scum for that"...of course they can! Anyone who doesn't know who scum is can be blindsighted by them! Like...that's the whole point of the game...

[Drixx]

@SS - ++-- asked the question. He says he reads EW and HI as scum, but the defense HI put up for EW makes him think his reads are bad. What exactly is wrong with me pointing out that scum do actually make really ballsy plays? I'm not familiar with the site meta, but I suspect newbie games probably contain more bold scum play by experienced players than the more advanced games, simply because there is a bunch of churn amongst the player pool.

To you and I it seems obvious, but look at ++--'s post there. He's expressing some serious doubt about his entire thought process and how he's reasoning because of a single event.

I think that the quickest way for town to lose is to make assumptions that shouldn't be made. Do you agree? If so, what was wrong with me answering ++--'s question? He solicited responses, and it seems like the primary thing bothering him is confusion over HI's play yesterday to halt the EW wagon. I'm asking you because as a mod I suspect you have a very good handle on the site's particular quirks. I could use some help learning it, so I can get up to speed better.

[singersigner]

Eh, fair enough. I didn't read his whole post, just your response, which reminded me of the whole "overlooking the potential doctor" mishap.

[Drixx]

Eh, fair enough. I didn't read his whole post, just your response, which reminded me of the whole "overlooking the potential doctor" mishap.

I believe you have a very cogent point. I probably overthink things in trying to figure out the possibilities, and I don't have any real basis to help me sort likely from unlikely on this site and with these players. It's both quite exciting and refreshing; however, also a bit intimidating and frustrating. I've played forum mafia with essentially a rather static playgroup over the last few years. I'm super glad one of them sent me this way, but I expect it will take some games to get a handle on things.

[copper223]

@++--
I have no reason to change my reads on the game when I haven't been proven wrong yet. How do you propose to account for the other 25% of the cases? The only way I know how is to first go with the 75% while we have mislynches available and if that proves to be wrong then re-evaluate.

Drixx flipping reads on me like crazy does not ping you?

[Drixx]

If I had actually flipped reads on you "like crazy", it might ping someone, Copper.

Here's the problem, though. Something isn't so just because you wish it were. I made a case against you, which you have failed to even acknowledge.

• A town Copper wouldn't be afraid to look at the case and acknowledge that he'd fallen into a rut and his play wasn't lining up with his earlier say.
  
• A town Copper would not tunnel in on only one possibility after admitting the logic process to get to that possibility has multiple points where it could fail and completely unravel.
  
• A town Copper would go look at my 2nd post and admit that he was wrong about me only having a scum read on EW and it being somehow an indication that he and I are both scum.
  
• A town Copper would update his priors and admit that it's hogwash (and hypocritical) to call someone scum for asking for the proper time to do a thread re-read with updated priors to re-evaluate and give reads on everyone in the game, instead of doing so from memory; especially since the very same Copper unvoted the EW wagon yesterday with the argument that taking the proper time to analyze things and give EW a chance to respond was the way to go.

As you are no doubt aware, a vote is frequently used to see how someone responds. I laid out a case that you could easily dismiss by apologizing for calling me scum for wanting to take the time to do things right when you yourself did the very same thing (in principle) yesterday, along with an acknowledgement that you have been completely focused on your theory to the exclusion of any other possibilities at all. I'm sure you will suggest that we agree to disagree, but I submit that there's nothing crazy about voting for someone when you make a case against him which is clearly solid and which he refuses to address.


@Jason, @EW - We going to hear from you two today?

[Epic Warrior]

As you are no doubt aware, a vote is frequently used to see how someone responds. I laid out a case that you could easily dismiss by apologizing for calling me scum for wanting to take the time to do things right when you yourself did the very same thing (in principle) yesterday, along with an acknowledgement that you have been completely focused on your theory to the exclusion of any other possibilities at all. I'm sure you will suggest that we agree to disagree, but I submit that there's nothing crazy about voting for someone when you make a case against him which is clearly solid and which he refuses to address.


@Jason, @EW - We going to hear from you two today?

Yes, I have arrived. I read through all that stuff, and I honestly think Drixx has the better case. This is really not OMGUS. I promise.

VOTE: Copper

THIS IS L-1.

[Epic Warrior]

Now for my post. I've know I've been called out based on my supposedly so-much-better-than-I'm-letting-on playstyle, where I've apparently shown hints of being far superior to what I seem to be. This is, alas, not the case. I'm flattered, really I am. And I wish you guys were right. The fact is, I'm not altogether good at this game. That's why I'm here, playing a newbie game. To get better. I really think I addressed this adequately before. Therefore, enough said.

[Drixx]

@Epic Warrior - If you really are new and looking for experience, then this is probably the best place to be. That said, you might want to review the insights you made that Copper pointed out. Try and recall how you were approaching thinking about the game when you made them. Self evaluate your play and figure out what works for you. I've talked a little bit about my own process in the game thread, but I'm a very analytical type-A kind of person, so what I do may not work for you.

[singersigner]

@EW...do you mind just giving the cliff notes version of Drixx's case on copper so I feel like you actually understand why you're voting? "Yeah, what he said" isn't really reassuring...

[singersigner]

I mean, fuck, especially since copper was voting for you and mostly defending his stance on his theories as opposed to "making a case." So saying "Drixx's was better" is basically like saying "as long as it's not me!"

Can you please provide some insight to anything else in the game? It's not promising that as soon as the pressure is off of you, you show up and put someone at L-1 based 100% on sheeping.

[Hostile Intent]

UNVOTE: copper223

Still waiting for J-Weezy. Unvoting only to stop anyone from hammering.

[Epic Warrior]

@EW...do you mind just giving the cliff notes version of Drixx's case on copper so I feel like you actually understand why you're voting? "Yeah, what he said" isn't really reassuring...

Essentially, Copper's case is based on several assumptions and he won't change his case despite the fact that Drixx pointed this out.

[JasonWazza]

Prod dodge,holidays.

Expect a post in a few days

[copper223]

If you do not lynch EW in the next 24 hours you should not be allowed outside without adult supervision.

[copper223]

@EW...do you mind just giving the cliff notes version of Drixx's case on copper so I feel like you actually understand why you're voting? "Yeah, what he said" isn't really reassuring...

Essentially, Copper's case is based on several assumptions and he won't change his case despite the fact that Drixx pointed this out.

Every case is based on assumptions unless you are a cop with a red check, this is nonsense.

[copper223]

UNVOTE: copper223

Still waiting for J-Weezy. Unvoting only to stop anyone from hammering.

I am turning around on this, despite how bad HI is I don't think he is this horrible and it's possible that his Mallow crusade was a desperate attempt to save EW. It would miff me if I got it wrong on Choof because it looked like sound analysis at the time but there you have it, he also completely ignored Drixx saying his vote on me was a reaction test to see how I would react (which sounds the height of bullshit to me), while immediately voting me for having said I exagerated my stance to get a reaction from Drixx, very inconsistent and scummy even from him, leaning scum now.

The problem is Drixx is also very scummy, I'll try to re-read him again.

If you geniuses manage to lynch me and after I flip town you will lynch Epic Warrior.

[copper223]

HI, I really appreciate it, but odds are I'll get hammered anyway, and then no matter if I'm town or scum they'll think you're scum too. As evidenced by that exchange higher on this page.

This sounds like EW telling HI not to help him because he is going down, especially the: no matter what I flip makes no sense, why would you say that as town?

[copper223]

Epic Warrior

, not sure if you know this or not, but you shouldn't claim even at L-1 unless someone claims intent to hammer. And since all four players off your lynch have expressed no desire to hammer you, my advise is that you shouldn't claim at all.

What you SHOULD do, however, is scum hunt more so I don't feel stupid for reading you newb-town.

Thanks.

Scum coaching scum?