Mafia 66: Freelancer - Game over!

[Mastermind of Sin]

I appreciate MoS actually thinking and discussing suggestions.

and, for the moment I'm going to

unvote, vote: no lynch

while I think about what has been said.

o.O

[Mastermind of Sin]

Is it just me, or does it seem like we're about to descend into the argumentative equivalent of "I'm right! No, I'm right! You're wrong and I'm right...etc, etc..."? Might just be me, though.

This is not

mafia

per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.

Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.

And what's your point?

Just because there could be another setup with only SK as scum doesn't change the fact that not all basic theory applies.

Much of basic theory applies in such setups as I described. There's a slight additional layer of complexity in this one. Other than that, not much has changed.

Much of basic theory does apply. However, it is not a fact that random lynches are better than no lynch in an SK-only setup. That's what we're arguing about. There is no proof that your statement is correct in the other setups you described, so we do not know whether or not it is true in this setup.

For Day 1 it _is_. At a later point in the game when we don't have 15 town, then sure, I can see scenarios where NL is definitely the right play.[/quote]

Hardly. You have yet to

prove

that random lynching is better than No Lynch right now. You are assuming that is a given, and going from there. It's not a given at all, and that's what I'm asking you to convince me of. With 15 town, we only have a 1/6 chance of catching scum by lynching randomly. 1/6 is not good enough for me to want to random lynch.

There is no advanatage to the SKs, because they only know their role, and no one else's.

Yes there is. There are no power roles among the town by which scum can be ratted out.

That's not an advantage. That's taking away an advantage from the town.

Okay, so in a more common setup, you'd have the informed, powered minority versus the powered majority. Let's say the power of each side equates to one apple. Now, we're going to make the minority uninformed, but keep their power, and take the power away from the majority. One side still has the power roles (ie. killing roles/SKs), while the other relies entirely on the lynch to win.

That's giving the minority a hand, even if they're playing blind.

That's just wrong. The "common" setup is an informed, doubly-powered (kills and other abilities such as godfather) minority against a powered majority.

That's dependent on a few things (number of players mainly), but sure, I can go with that.[/quote]

With more players, you just add more people to both sides to balance it. Adding power roles is just getting fancy. But that's not really relevant to what we're discussing

You take away the power from both sides, leaving you with the powered, informed minority against the majority. This is the basic, balanced setup originally created by Dimma Davidoff in Moscow. This setup takes the informed minority and makes it uninformed, but gives it a few extra kills a night. Then it gives the majority even more people to balance out the extra kills, but does not make up for the fact that the minority is no longer informed. Sure, the game is still winnable for scum, but it's much harder now.

I think you're putting too little off-set in the increased number of kills. Sure, it is, by definition, harder for any one given scum to win because there's not a team of scum working together. On the other hand, the other scum are going to be getting nightly kills as well, to which the given SK afore-noted is immune. What it all boils down to, is we have three needles in a haystack and they have a damn good shot at this game.

They do have a good shot at this game. That doesn't mean we should make it easier for them by random lynching.

There are plenty of reasons for which a Day 1 lynch is a very good, and in many cases, necessary thing.

Care to elaborate on this "plenty" reasons?

Especially given that in this setup we have no power roles amongst the town by which information can be gleaned (ie. cops), we need to start narrowing down the number of folks among the town who could be scum. Lynching, along with the SKs night kills, will accomplish this, and as a result, move us along towards ratting out the SKs and lynching _them_.

There is NEVER a reason to want to reduce the number of protown players alive, unless you are scum.

All you have said so far is that "it

does

apply in this setup". That's not a very convincing reason, and frankly, I'm tiring of hearing you repeat your useless propoganda.

To be candid, I'm surprised no one else has taken as much notice of your proposed No Lynching this early in the game.

You need to pay more attention before you get all gung-ho next time. Nowhere have I said that no lynch is my preferred plan of action right now. Do you see me voting No Lynch? No. That's because I want to have an informed lynch, which gives us a better chance of finding scum than either a no lynch or a random lynch. I merely support no lynch over the proposed random lynch, which would not help us at all.

This setup cannot possibly have an informed Day 1 lynch. Most setups don't. The fact of the matter is, in either case, for this Day, in order to start progressing, we simply need to make a lynch. If it has to be a random lynch in order to achieve it, then so be it. Then we can finally move on to the part of the game where we can start making informed lynches.[/quote]

Every setup can make an informed D1 lynch. You are clearly too used to relying on power roles in this game. In Himalayan mafia, there were 4 mafia and a bunch of townies, and the town lynched scum the first two days of the game. This wasn't by accident, we made informed lynches and caught scum without the help of power roles. We can do the same thing in this setup, and have a better chance at catching scum than a random lynch.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote:Ksope

Still WIFOM, Sk Or Mafia.

FoS: YB

for trying to throw oil on the fire. There is NO MAFIA in this game, how can Kscope be mafia?

[ryan]

A few comments about why a no lynch setup were eluding to the fact that SK's could knock eachother off, I was just pointing out that wasn't true

[YagamiLight]

Every setup can make an informed D1 lynch. You are clearly too used to relying on power roles in this game. In Himalayan mafia, there were 4 mafia and a bunch of townies, and the town lynched scum the first two days of the game. This wasn't by accident, we made informed lynches and caught scum without the help of power roles. We can do the same thing in this setup, and have a better chance at catching scum than a random lynch.

We can't make an informed lynch today because everyone is out for themselves, and most of the common scum tells do not apply. This has nothing to do with Himalayan mafia as the mafia where informed, and working together, which allows for the scum tells.

[Mastermind of Sin]

It allows for

different

scumtells. Just because there is no one working together does not mean that there are no scumtells. People do plenty of scummy things without having relation to another person. Any protown person that is only looking out for themself might as well give up now, because that's not going to help us. If Ksc0pe happens to be town by some stretch of the imagination, he's got the right idea in looking out more for the town than himself. I don't necessarily agree with his plan of action, but at least he has the right sentiment.

[ryan]

It allows for

different

scumtells. Just because there is no one working together does not mean that there are no scumtells. People do plenty of scummy things without having relation to another person. Any protown person that is only looking out for themself might as well give up now, because that's not going to help us. If Ksc0pe happens to be town by some stretch of the imagination, he's got the right idea in looking out more for the town than himself. I don't necessarily agree with his plan of action, but at least he has the right sentiment.

Just a suggestion but could you, when you quote players, don't forget to leave their names in there (so we know who had the original quote) This will be beneficial during re-reads, thanks

[ButteBlues]

Is it just me, or does it seem like we're about to descend into the argumentative equivalent of "I'm right! No, I'm right! You're wrong and I'm right...etc, etc..."? Might just be me, though.

I should hope not.

This is not

mafia

per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.

Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.

And what's your point?

Just because there could be another setup with only SK as scum doesn't change the fact that not all basic theory applies.

Much of basic theory applies in such setups as I described. There's a slight additional layer of complexity in this one. Other than that, not much has changed.

Much of basic theory does apply. However, it is not a fact that random lynches are better than no lynch in an SK-only setup. That's what we're arguing about. There is no proof that your statement is correct in the other setups you described, so we do not know whether or not it is true in this setup.

For Day 1 it _is_. At a later point in the game when we don't have 15 town, then sure, I can see scenarios where NL is definitely the right play.

Hardly. You have yet to

prove

that random lynching is better than No Lynch right now. You are assuming that is a given, and going from there. It's not a given at all, and that's what I'm asking you to convince me of. With 15 town, we only have a 1/6 chance of catching scum by lynching randomly. 1/6 is not good enough for me to want to random lynch.

Because if we lynch today, then tomorrow, assuming each SK hits a valid target, and even erring to the point of claiming we didn't lynch an SK, then we have a 22% chance of lynching an SK as opposed to a 20% chance.

Following this trend, and assuming we again lynch incorrectly (woe to us if we do), we then have a 30% chance of lynching correctly. On the other hand, if we NL today, and then (as will likely happen) lynch wrong tomorrow, then we're looking at a mere 27% chance of lynching correctly. If we NL twice in a row, it goes down to 25%.

Statistically speaking, we have a better chance of successfully lynching SKs if we make a lynch today, and another tomorrow.

You take away the power from both sides, leaving you with the powered, informed minority against the majority. This is the basic, balanced setup originally created by Dimma Davidoff in Moscow. This setup takes the informed minority and makes it uninformed, but gives it a few extra kills a night. Then it gives the majority even more people to balance out the extra kills, but does not make up for the fact that the minority is no longer informed. Sure, the game is still winnable for scum, but it's much harder now.

I think you're putting too little off-set in the increased number of kills. Sure, it is, by definition, harder for any one given scum to win because there's not a team of scum working together. On the other hand, the other scum are going to be getting nightly kills as well, to which the given SK afore-noted is immune. What it all boils down to, is we have three needles in a haystack and they have a damn good shot at this game.

They do have a good shot at this game. That doesn't mean we should make it easier for them by random lynching.

As shown above, the game gives them a better chance of not being killed should we not lynch.

There are plenty of reasons for which a Day 1 lynch is a very good, and in many cases, necessary thing.

Care to elaborate on this "plenty" reasons?

Narrowing the pool of possible scum increases one's chances of finding said scum.

Especially given that in this setup we have no power roles amongst the town by which information can be gleaned (ie. cops), we need to start narrowing down the number of folks among the town who could be scum. Lynching, along with the SKs night kills, will accomplish this, and as a result, move us along towards ratting out the SKs and lynching _them_.

There is NEVER a reason to want to reduce the number of protown players alive, unless you are scum.

There is always reason to try and eliminate the number of potential SKs when it is reasonable to do so.

All you have said so far is that "it

does

apply in this setup". That's not a very convincing reason, and frankly, I'm tiring of hearing you repeat your useless propoganda.

To be candid, I'm surprised no one else has taken as much notice of your proposed No Lynching this early in the game.

You need to pay more attention before you get all gung-ho next time. Nowhere have I said that no lynch is my preferred plan of action right now. Do you see me voting No Lynch? No. That's because I want to have an informed lynch, which gives us a better chance of finding scum than either a no lynch or a random lynch. I merely support no lynch over the proposed random lynch, which would not help us at all.

This setup cannot possibly have an informed Day 1 lynch. Most setups don't. The fact of the matter is, in either case, for this Day, in order to start progressing, we simply need to make a lynch. If it has to be a random lynch in order to achieve it, then so be it. Then we can finally move on to the part of the game where we can start making informed lynches.

Every setup can make an informed D1 lynch. You are clearly too used to relying on power roles in this game. In Himalayan mafia, there were 4 mafia and a bunch of townies, and the town lynched scum the first two days of the game. This wasn't by accident, we made informed lynches and caught scum without the help of power roles. We can do the same thing in this setup, and have a better chance at catching scum than a random lynch.[/quote]

However, that is not the same for the reasons cited by YagamiLight.

A few comments about why a no lynch setup were eluding to the fact that SK's could knock eachother off, I was just pointing out that wasn't true

If an SK targets another SK, they will not die. In turn, they will know that said person _is_ another SK, and will attempt to get them lynched.

[ButteBlues]

It allows for

different

scumtells. Just because there is no one working together does not mean that there are no scumtells. People do plenty of scummy things without having relation to another person. Any protown person that is only looking out for themself might as well give up now, because that's not going to help us. If Ksc0pe happens to be town by some stretch of the imagination, he's got the right idea in looking out more for the town than himself. I don't necessarily agree with his plan of action, but at least he has the right sentiment.

Right, but the thing is, a Day 1 lynch of scum was possible in Himalayan mafia because the teamwork gave it away. There is no informed group in this setup, which eliminates any potential scumtells on Day 1.

[YagamiLight]

It allows for

different

scumtells. Just because there is no one working together does not mean that there are no scumtells. People do plenty of scummy things without having relation to another person. Any protown person that is only looking out for themself might as well give up now, because that's not going to help us. If Ksc0pe happens to be town by some stretch of the imagination, he's got the right idea in looking out more for the town than himself. I don't necessarily agree with his plan of action, but at least he has the right sentiment.

I didn't mean protown is only looking out for themselves, I mean that they will defend themselves from a lynch just as much as an SK.
The different scumtells, will not show up today, the SKs will look just like town because they want to lynch SKs too and there is no evidence of who one is. Not until one of the SK's find another will we begin to get scumtells from them.

[JordanA24]

I say we should lynch today, if we don't we simply miss the chance to get an SK, with potentially 3 kills tonight without us really getting anywhere, we should lynch in most situations (obviously not all).

[ryan]

I say we should lynch today, if we don't we simply miss the chance to get an SK, with potentially 3 kills tonight without us really getting anywhere, we should lynch in most situations (obviously not all).

EXACTLY why I've been trying to stop the "no lynch" bandwagon.

[Estes]

Could we get an updated list of who is left? The front page is behind and in order to vote for someone I need to know who's in the game; because only about 5 people even post.

[ryan]

Estes: Agreed, knowing exactly who's replaced in and who is lurking would be beneficial right now (I know I don't have the time to go back through and look and tally)

[Qman]

For the record, I think a no lynch would be a bad idea, we only have a limited number of shots to lynch the SK's and giving up one of the 4-5 chances we will have to kill them. Giving one up really gets just helps to dig a hole for us to have to crawl out of.

I think it will be nearly impossible day 1 to get a solid read on anyone (to some extent this lasts all game) as everyone is protecting their own head. I don't think we can even read into people defending others for thisg ame because in the end everyone is putting themselves first. I suspect that in the end, we'll find the SK's through who they push to get lynched, but otherwise we will be limited in true scum tells.

[ryan]

For the record, I think a no lynch would be a bad idea, we only have a limited number of shots to lynch the SK's and giving up one of the 4-5 chances we will have to kill them. Giving one up really gets just helps to dig a hole for us to have to crawl out of.

I think it will be nearly impossible day 1 to get a solid read on anyone (to some extent this lasts all game) as everyone is protecting their own head. I don't think we can even read into people defending others for thisg ame because in the end everyone is putting themselves first. I suspect that in the end, we'll find the SK's through who they push to get lynched, but otherwise we will be limited in true scum tells.

Aren't you still without a vote?

[Qman]

I think I'm not voting, I need to do a bit of reading back, I've been pretty busy the last couple days and haven't had the time to check in fully.

Plus I don't in general think voting without a deadline on us is really needed.

[Qman]

Clarification of the above post:

Plus I don't think in general voting without a deadline on us is really needed, if the vote is in effect, a random vote, which mine would be until tomorrow night when I actually have the time to read the posts since Tuesday

[Mastermind of Sin]

I say we should lynch today, if we don't we simply miss the chance to get an SK, with potentially 3 kills tonight without us really getting anywhere, we should lynch in most situations (obviously not all).

EXACTLY why I've been trying to stop the "no lynch" bandwagon.

What no lynch bandwagon?

[yellowbounder]

Could we get an updated list of who is left? The front page is behind and in order to vote for someone I need to know who's in the game; because only about 5 people even post.

The front page is now perfectly correct.

[Estes]

The front page is now perfectly correct.

Thank you.

[Estes]

vote: DYH

It's been awhile since he's posted; so he's either a lurker or he doesn't care much about this game. Either is enough for me to want to get rid of him.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mod: Prod DYH, please

[Sir Tornado]

I don't like a no-lynch on day 1. A lynch gives us a 1 in 6 chance of hitting. A no lynch doesn't do that.

And, the SKs get 3 NKs between them. So, 1 extra townie (should the lynch go bad) doesn't really make much of a difference.

Another thing is, that for how many days are we going to carry out the no-lynch (if we do one today that is)? The arguments for a no-lynch today would be more or less valid tomorrow too.

[ryan]

Mod: Prod DYH, please

A vote count would be appreciated too.