Micro 440: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

[Not_Mafia]

Power

Hopkirk (1)-

Lucky2u

Lucky2u (1)-

Hopkirk

goodmorning (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

goodmorning

Wisdom

serrapaladin (0)-

beastcharizard (1)-

Scripten

Scripten (0)-

Not Voting (2)-

serrapaladin, beastcharizard

Courage

Zebulin (2)-

BBMolla, Perpetual Nonsense

Perpetual Nonsense (1)-

Zebulin

BBMolla (0)-

Not Voting (0)-

Deadline is in

(expired on 2015-02-09 20:00:00)

- Feb 9th 20:00 GMT

[serrapaladin]

That's a blatant lie, bc. Your entrance doesn't correlate with my level of engagement at all. I won't pretend I've been particularly active, but you have fewer than 10 posts, all of which are calling me scum and not much else.

My town read wasn't for zeb sticking to his logic, but rather showing that he had some original thought about whether the ongoing discussion was TvT or TvM.

Having lucky as your largest scumread because you always scumread him is truly awful.

[goodmorning]

Titus, a scum read no matter what.

That's how I usually read Titus too.

My town read wasn't for zeb sticking to his logic, but rather showing that he had some original thought about whether the ongoing discussion was TvT or TvM.

I still don't know why that made you townread him.

[serrapaladin]

Because it reflected genuine effort to discern scrip/wp's alignments.

And do you not think it's terrible that BC acknowledges that he's scum reading someone he always does?

[serrapaladin]

And if you always scumread someone, maybe that's a sign you should adjust your baseline for them?

[Zebulin]

Um, beastcharizard, serra's a guy.

PN: At this point I'm being scumread by 2/3rds of the players, including both other members of Courage, so I'm trying to sort out everyone and guess correctly who's scum in my last post so people take my reads seriously D2 and D3 and lynch the scum those days. My money right now is on beastcharizard and you/Hopkirk. Serra seems extremely town, why are you all scumreading him?

[serrapaladin]

Probably because I couldn't possibly be town reading you...

[beastcharizard]

Having lucky as your largest scumread because you always scumread him is truly awful.

You are my largest scum read and really the only one I care about at this point because I can actually do something about you. And show me where you answered the whole: "Original thought" thing since you agree I have only focused on you. You just spent all this time making shit up.

Also, see any game I am in with Titus. I try to lynch them outright. Even if they are on my scum team, I still push for them to be lynched.

[serrapaladin]

Which reflects poorly on your ability to look at someone's play in context.

[Hopkirk]

Nothing has changed in regard to my opinions.

[serrapaladin]

The reason you're only pushing me is that that's what you need to do to survive, beast.

What in my comments about zeb was ill-explained? I don't care whether or not you agree.

[Zebulin]

Serra: If beastcharizard is your largest scumread, why isn't your vote on him?

[Zebulin]

beastcharizard: If serra is your largest scumread, why isn't your vote on him?

[serrapaladin]

Because that would effectively be L-1, and I'm hoping to still something intelligible about Power before we see a hammer.

[goodmorning]

Because it reflected genuine effort to discern scrip/wp's alignments.

I don't know about that. Sometimes analysing things as 'TvT' or 'TvS' is an easy way for Scum to look like they're trying to discern people's alignments.

And do you not think it's terrible that BC acknowledges that he's scum reading someone he always does?

I think it's terrible that Lucky is a person he always scumreads because Lucky usually ends up pretty readable.

And if you always scumread someone, maybe that's a sign you should adjust your baseline for them?

Sometimes that's easier said than done.

Having lucky as your largest scumread because you always scumread him is truly awful.

You are my largest scum read and really the only one I care about at this point because I can actually do something about you. And show me where you answered the whole: "Original thought" thing since you agree I have only focused on you. You just spent all this time making shit up.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[serrapaladin]

I don't know about that. Sometimes analysing things as 'TvT' or 'TvS' is an easy way for Scum to look like they're trying to discern people's alignments.

Right. Exactly. That's why I asked the following:

UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

@zeb: how do you tell TvT and TvM apart?

Statistically, we may want to consider lynching via an intergroup pseudo-vote system, using FoSes or something.

To which his response was this:

UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

@zeb: how do you tell TvT and TvM apart?

Statistically, we may want to consider lynching via an intergroup pseudo-vote system, using FoSes or something.

I think TvT arguments tend to be argued over semantics, with logical and precise reasoning on both sides over a point that was debatable in the first place (difference in play philosophy or NK analysis). TvM arguments tend to be all-out walls of text about hard evidence, and scum sometimes (hopefully) slips up in their fake argument. It's not a guaranteed system, but it's worked for all my games so far. The Witness vs Scripten argument is very wally and the posts contradict each other, so SOMEONE is lying.

Which I found to actually be somewhat thoughtful, and suggested he had actually thought about the witness/scrip argument, and I agree with his logic and conclusion. Had his response been "uh, it just sort of feels TvM", I'd very much have gone the other way on him.

This was the first post in which I'd changed my mind about scrip:

@gm: does his frustration read genuine to you?

[Scripten]

Power seems to be the group with the most hangups, though courage has the closest leading wagons. Considering we have less than a day left for deliberations, are we coming close to hammering?

Can someone who is scumreading Lucky2u give me an idea of why?

[Zebulin]

Alright, with less then a day left and a Day 1 lynch for me almost certain, I can say outrageously scummy things and it won't matter. Please take my reads seriously day 2.

We (courage) are probably the townbloc. As much as I hate to say it, Perpetual Nonsense had really good points in our arguments and I had just screwed up my play in such a way where town can point out the logical flaws I overlooked and get a accidental mislynch just as easily as scum can. I then tried to avoid being lynched, failed epically, and Perpetual called me out on it. If the Power and/or Wisdom lynchee flips town, I'd greatly prefer it if you lynch from that group.

Beastcharizard needs to die. Just freaking lynch him already.

Serra's obviously town and is the person making the most effort towards the game, and I have no idea why people are scumreading him. I'd bet the game on him being town if it was real lylo right now if I had the choice.

goodmorning's probably town, but she's not recieving nearly enough pressure for lots of vague statements, and that worries me. Hopkirk is still the most likely Power scum for the prod dodges everywhere (it could be the he actually has a life, but he could at least take a stance on people who aren't in Power).

Don't lynch Perpetual tomorrow based on my townflip. I might lynch Scripten if beastcharizard flips town though, as there's been a tunnel all game and I'm confident that's a TvM argument.

goodmorning and Perpetual need to post their full reads before the day ends if they are at the computer.

Power: hammer right now. Serra: hammer beastcharizard right now. We have less then a day.

Hopkirk > Lucky2u = goodmorning
beastcharizard >> scripten >> serrapaladin
BBMolla >= Perpetual Nonsense

Very Town:

serrapaladin

Town:

Perpetual Nonsense

Leaning Town:

goodmorning, BBMolla

Null:

Lucky2u, Scripten

Leaning Scum:

Hopkirk

Scum:
Very Scum:

beastcharizard

Well, I'm going to sleep, and I'll probably be dead by the time I wake up. Good luck town, and please keep these thoughts in mind.

[goodmorning]

Which I found to actually be somewhat thoughtful, and suggested he had actually thought about the witness/scrip argument, and I agree with his logic and conclusion. Had his response been "uh, it just sort of feels TvM", I'd very much have gone the other way on him.

So he spouts a bunch of theory and that makes you townread him. Theory's not indicative, but your gentle WKing of him is what's making me paranoid about you.

Hopkirk is still the most likely Power scum for the prod dodges everywhere (it could be the he actually has a life, but he could at least take a stance on people who aren't in Power).

1. It's weird that Lucky is the only person you didn't mention.
2. It's especially weird that you didn't mention him given that he's posted less content than Hopkirk.

Given that the deadline is ~3pm my time and I'll be on before then, I'll wait to hammer. I want to see if Lucky's going to post anything more.

[serrapaladin]

You're worrying me

When people say that theory is not alignment indicative, that's referring to explicitly theoretical arguments of optimal play independent of reads. His "theory" is his own model of how town and scum interact in certain conditions, which he applies with some consideration. The fact that you're simultaneously pushing him as scum and accusing me of wking seems like you're anticipating him flipping town, so you can start pushing me tomorrow.

[serrapaladin]

I guess I'd better

VOTE: beastcharizard

so we're not at risk of NLing

[Zebulin]

Serra is town and I don't know what you people are thinking. Sheep him tomorrow. (If you're scum serra, I'm quitting the site.)

goodmorning needs to be scrutinized, or at least have some pressure on her.

Power: hammer already!

[serrapaladin]

3 hours, folks...

[Perpetual Nonsense]

I made it before deadline. We were gone since Friday.

Goodmorning needs to come in and vote.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

Serra is town and I don't know what you people are thinking.

I don't know what you're thinking.