Mini 1642: The Burning (GAME OVER FLAMES HAVE ENGULFED TOWN)

[MonkeyMan576]

L1 or Hammer votes have a lot more consequence then the first vote or two on a wagon. The earlier a wagon is, the more chances there are to get on or off, wheras the finality of hammer vote(and relative finality of a L1 vote) brings to it more scrutiny.

[Elbirn]

Well. Pie is town. Her analysis all makes sense, I like the way she looks at people's motivations, gets into their head, etc. I actually really like her stance on Monkey; while the rest of us are pretty much ready to write him off as scum, she offers an alternative viewpoint that makes sense and clearly has thought put into it, and on top of that I don't see that kind of action coming from a scum. Let's pretend we have a scum_pieguyn on our hands. If Monkey is scum: Why would Scum_pie completely screw herself by defending her obvscum partner, that would look really bad for both of them if either flip. If Monkey is Town: Why would scum_pie be so vocal in defending easy lynchbait?

I do have some amount of paranoia about FF, but it's nothing worth pursuing. not really going to bother explaining this unless asked given most ppl seem to agree here.

I'd like to hear what you think about FF.

@Cheetory - I won't hammer if I legitimately feel the person is town. Usually if I want the person lynched in a day, I'll hammer before people can change their mind. So yes, I will hammer post Day 1. In hindsight, you'll notice my hammers are never really 'bad' for town.

But really, that's the right decision, isn't it.

Do whatever you think will make your team win the game, and let the consequences be damned?

See here's the problem as I understand it. As town our main detriment is lack of information. We make up for that disadvantage primarily by having conversation, thus gaining information. When you hammer early, you are cutting short conversation, and thus taking away an opportunity for us. I'm pretty well convinced TF is scum, but if you (boon) were to hammer him with a week + left on the clock? I'd be mad regardless of what he flips.

I thought SiX was town and with pie's catchup post I still think that slot is town. As for his suspicion on me, I don't really know what to say when his main point against me is by PoE I must be scum. I don't think I'm coasting through the game either

. I might be a bit quiet but it's mostly because I'm still trying to figure the game out.

As of the start of Day 2 I was thinking a possible scum team of Toon, Elbirn, and acryon. Only way that is possible is if Elbirn and acryon are bussing hard their partner for town cred. Since Toon is being read as scummy by most everyone, that could be the case, but I have doubts that I have been biased that Toon is scum for the whole game and then there is the case that I'm town reading the people on Elbirn's wagon except for Toon.

I feel confident to say that I believe Cheetory is town and of course RC is town. I'd rather vote with those two than vote Toon with 2 people I think are scum.

And if there are 3 scum in the game, it makes me wonder why Elbirn's lynch is looking like it would be much harder to go through than a Toon lynch. Basically there appears to be a better probability that Elbirn is scum than Toon.

Important parts bolded.

1. If you're trying to figure the game out, how is being quiet helping you? I'm reading through your ISO, and I don't really see you making any pushes or scumhunting. You ask lots of questions, but they feel...Idle. Like they don't lead to anything. It's like you might as well have asked about the weather.

2. And once again we get justification for a vote by way of "I'm just sheeping people I think are town, no big deal". RC is conf town, but that does not mean she is right. Cheetory might be town, but we don't know that. Your scum reads might be scum, but once again we don't know that they are. So instead of having any reasoning for a vote, we get what basically amounts to an excuse. Hm.

Why DO you think I'm scum anyway?

I feel like anyone not voting Toon right now needs to have a really good reason for doing so.

I cannot think of any good reason for why anyone would say this. This smells like scum. Pressuring people into a vote without any reasoning given and implying that anyone not on the wagon is subject to suspicion? No, no this won't do.

[Flames682]

Votecount 2.07 (Unchanged)

Elbirn - 4 (Cheetory6, Toon Fighter, RadiantCowbells, eektor)

Toon Fighter - 4 (MonkeyMan576, Elbirn, acryon, pieguyn)

MonkeyMan576 - 1 (Boonskiies)

Not Voting - 1 (Formerfish)

With

10

alive, it's

6

to lynch.

Day Two's deadline is Thursday, February 19, @ 8:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2015-02-19 20:30:00).

[Boonskiies]

I disagree. Sometimes allowing a day to go on gives scum a far easier position to manipulate the day to their liking. If I see a scum read going down without any game losing repercussions, I'm going to take it.

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm going V/LA for a few days between my midterms and such.

There's 10 days, I'll be pretty unhappy if there's a hammer, even if it's on elbirn, even if it hits scum.

[Flames682]

Toon Fighter has been prodded.

[pieguyn]

am I the only one who wants to lynch someone before RC gets back just to piss him off?

[eektor]

Basically there appears to be a better probability that Elbirn is scum than Toon.

what are your thoughts on my reasons for townreading Elbirn?

is the Elbirn scum read based entirely off his end-of-D1 play? I'm looking through your ISO and that's all I can find. if not, why?

Actually from the beginning it looks like you have a pretty weak town read on him. Then you mentioned that you are biased toward reading Elbirn as town because he correctly identified the Victor vs copper as town vs town. What I see later on after he said that was he eventually voted for copper and then ended up voting for Victor. So that point holds no weight for me. Actions speak louder than words and in this case votes hold more weight than what people say in posts.

The analysis with copper and cheetory saying that either one of them is scum or they are both town. I agree that that post Elbirn is coming off as town.

The question about why I followed Elbirn to join Victor's lynch, I don't think is very town. My circumstances were different than his and I definitely didn't follow him. I was thinking Victor could be a better scum buddy for Toon than Monkey. Elbirn was just trying to lynch someone. Even though he thought copper vs victor was town vs town, then thought copper was scum and victor was town and then ended up voting for victor to just lynch someone.

RC's push on Elbirn and his reaction. I agree with you that RC's push was not very good, but I disagree with you on Elbirn's reaction. I didn't like Elbirn's reaction to RC's push.

[eektor]

@Elbirn

1. So what is the weather like where you live?

2. Not much time right now but I can write up a post about you sometime tonight.

[pieguyn]

I'd like to hear what you think about FF.

is this referring to my paranoia or my reasons for thinking he's town?

my paranoia mostly came from 381. FF usually posts a lot of content, but it felt like there was a lack of effort there when he actually committed to a vote; gut told me it could be scum who was coasting through the VDA/copper shitstorm. that's really the only thing that pinged for me and the rest of his play has been consistently town, so I'm not interested in pursuing it

@FF:

still interested in your thoughts on this:

it's not really the same thing imo

MM didn't really make much sense, but he threw himself out there early and his pushes actually had conviction behind them. I agree what he was saying was bad, but I still think it comes from a similar town mindset.

that's a big difference from what TF did. there was no pointed questioning, no conviction, or nothing similar to that that I'd expect from town. and then there was no follow-up on half of his reads. there's nothing here that indicates he's doing anything that he thinks will game solve. do you disagree?

p-edit:

Actually from the beginning it looks like you have a pretty weak town read on him. Then you mentioned that you are biased toward reading Elbirn as town because he correctly identified the Victor vs copper as town vs town. What I see later on after he said that was he eventually voted for copper and then ended up voting for Victor. So that point holds no weight for me. Actions speak louder than words and in this case votes hold more weight than what people say in posts.

that's not what I meant. what I was saying was that I think his take on VDA v. copper looked town, despite the fact he didn't identify it as TvT.

RC's push on Elbirn and his reaction. I agree with you that RC's push was not very good, but I disagree with you on Elbirn's reaction. I didn't like Elbirn's reaction to RC's push.

why didn't you like it?

[eektor]

@pie From the games I've read, I've seen way more scum act that way when cornered and not so much town.

I feel like anyone not voting Toon right now needs to have a really good reason for doing so.

Also, I think this is a not so subtle defense of Elbirn.

[acryon]

Yeah? What constitutes a good reason? What if our reasons aren't deemed to be good enough for you? What gives you the right to ask that of anyone? That seems like an oddly out of place statement from the limited experience I have of playing with you. Are you trying to say that anyone not on the second biggest wagon today is scum?

These are some obviously ridiculous questions, especially the last one. Toon just seems like very clear scum here. Maybe that's not apparent to you, but clearly when I post I'm going to do so with confidence in my convictions. These questions sucked fish.

I think he's just trying to say voting someone at L1 is different than voting someone at L5.

Appreciate the help, but this is not what I'm saying. Monkey is right about the bad questions though fish. There are good questions you could have asked me there, but the ones you asked were terrible.

I'm pretty sure this:

I don't think VictorvCopper is TvT. Just not sure which side is which.

is saying basically what I said. anyway, the point here is mainly that your stance looked opportunistic; it looked like a stance where scum could easily be on whichever of the {VDA, copper} wagons was more likely to go through.

That was like one of the very first things I said on the topic. I very clearly drew lines after that. I'll give you a pass if you were just reading through and hadn't gotten there yet.

"I feel like anyone not voting Toon right now needs to have a really good reason for doing so."

This could be taken 2 ways.

1. You need to have a good reason to be off the wagon.

Bingo.

2. You need to have a good reason to vote that wagon right now..

I feel like anyone not voting Toon right now needs to have a really good reason for doing so.

I cannot think of any good reason for why anyone would say this. This smells like scum. Pressuring people into a vote without any reasoning given and implying that anyone not on the wagon is subject to suspicion? No, no this won't do.

Terrible. I didn't say

anything

about suspicion. Not sure what world you and fish come from, but where I come from, having a crappy reason for doing something doesn't make you scum. The point of my comment was to hear why those not voting toon are abstaining, at which point I could tell them why they are wrong.

@pie From the games I've read, I've seen way more scum act that way when cornered and not so much town.

I feel like anyone not voting Toon right now needs to have a really good reason for doing so.

Also, I think this is a not so subtle defense of Elbirn.

I don't like elbirn either, but Toon needs to burn.

[Cheetory6]

Eektor's starting to ping me as possible scum with these last few posts.
I feel like he started getting a lot more invested in saying things the moment that pie called him out as a scumspect, which may or may not indicate that before this he was just kind of casually sitting in the comfort of a bunch of slight townreads on him. I also feel like his responses to Pie have been very mechanical/potentially forced, but I could also see that being playstyle.
More a bad feeling than anything atm.

I kind of like the tone in acryon's last post, but it's still moreso a post responding to people rather than looking at much of what's going on in the game-state. More importantly, everything up until this point from him has felt very.. safe. The Copp/Victor both being scum theory was the most interesting step he's taken so far.

@Fish: I feel good about Toon-scum right now, but can you give me your current case for Monkey-scum (outside of your last post)?

Why haven't you asked for a case on Elbirn? You said you were going to look at VCA and other stuff. Why haven't you made any kind of commentary on why Elbirn is or isn't scum? I know you said you didn't like him in your last post, but please elaborate on exact reasons.

I cannot think of any good reason for why anyone would say this. This smells like scum. Pressuring people into a vote without any reasoning given and implying that anyone not on the wagon is subject to suspicion? No, no this won't do.

This shit reads as weak distancing to me.

There's a lot of stuff that looks like of off regarding ElbirnvsAcryon tbh. I looked at his early posts and he's voting Monkey for dodging questions, but then he posts all of these semi-good reasons for scumAcryon and then just kind of shrugs and says he's a nullread.

16 I disagree with Acryon "promising" not to lynch Boon. Yes yes I know, this was explained. I still don't like it. I could toy with the notion that this was scum promising not to bus, but I'd be flinging unfounded accusations at that point. If one of them flips scum this might be worth revisiting?

86 Acryon defending Boon again huh?

Why do you townread Acryon? I don't scumread him, hell I feel fairly null on both, but I do feel he's buddying Boon.

I do like that he follows a line of questioning with acryon, but it doesn't really seem to go anywhere afterwards. He keeps kind of semi-committing to a softscumread on Acryon, while also being like "eh it could be buddying or it could just be nothing don't worry guyzz".
What really bugs me is that his worries on Acryon just seem to eventually disappear.
Like, this is less me saying that Elbirn is obviously scum for this and more saying that if either Elbirn or Acryon is scum, chances of the other being scum rises dramatically.

In other news, I don't think Elbirn and Monkey are scummates. Would be impressed if Monkey comfortably was like "lol yeah I'm hardsheeping my scummate".
Elbirn's blatant self-awareness makes it hard to read him. q.q

Will lynching victor give us more info than flipping monkey? Do you really think a vic scum flip clears ALL of those people?

I don't really know why scumElbirn would say this. :/

I might need to reread the game outside of ISOs because I'm having trouble deciding whether Elbirn's switches in votes are opportunistic or not. I'm not sure why he would feel the need to switch votes a bunch if there were at least two town wagons. Only thing I can really think of right now is that he was protecting Monkey? Eh.

You know a lot of your posts are worded as though you know already that Vic will flip town, and I think it's interesting.

This is a blatant hardcore sheep on RC on something that even she admitted was bullshit in hindsight [or at least I'm pretty sure she said something along those lines q.q]

At the end of this I'm left surprisingly null on Elbirn and it makes me sad.

I'll look at Toon when I get back. For now, I want blood on this guy:
VOTE: Acryon

[Cheetory6]

In other news, I don't think Elbirn and Monkey are scummates. Would be impressed if Monkey comfortably was like "lol yeah I'm hardsheeping my scummate".
Elbirn's blatant self-awareness makes it hard to read him. q.q

Only thing I can really think of right now is that he was protecting Monkey? Eh.

Holy shit relatedness.
Fuck it I have no idea why Elbirn would swing his votes around on D1 as scum.
I like somewhat talked me out of my own scumread by the end of my ISO on him.
What the fuck.

Also, enjoy the wall, losers. I'm gonna go eat pizza now.

[acryon]

I mean is it particularly surprising that I would be playing a little safer today than yesterday? Considering I said "X and Y are scum" and neither was scum.

@Fish: I feel good about Toon-scum right now, but can you give me your current case for Monkey-scum (outside of your last post)?

Why haven't you asked for a case on Elbirn? You said you were going to look at VCA and other stuff. Why haven't you made any kind of commentary on why Elbirn is or isn't scum? I know you said you didn't like him in your last post, but please elaborate on exact reasons.

I mean this is pretty simply just that Toon seems far more likely. FWIW, I think Elbirn is the next most likely to be scum, but I'd rather not do the same thing I did yesterday and target two people at once. Makes more sense to focus in on one.

[Cheetory6]

Fuck pizza.

i) Remembered that RC said the opposite of this:

You know a lot of your posts are worded as though you know already that Vic will flip town, and I think it's interesting.

I still feel like him coming at me when RC was also giving me shit feels sheepy but I'm not sure if that's scummy or not Zzzz.

ii)

I think Elbirn is the next most likely to be scum, but I'd rather not do the same thing I did yesterday and target two people at once. Makes more sense to focus in on one.

So you have no thoughts on why Elbirn is scum beyond a feeling right now and you don't want to do any analysis because it might cause sloppy play?
Because I can see it as equally plausible that right now you're not talking about anyone but Toon because you're trying to protect your scummates from association with you.

[acryon]

Fuck pizza.

i) Remembered that RC said the opposite of this:

You know a lot of your posts are worded as though you know already that Vic will flip town, and I think it's interesting.

I still feel like him coming at me when RC was also giving me shit feels sheepy but I'm not sure if that's scummy or not Zzzz.

ii)

I think Elbirn is the next most likely to be scum, but I'd rather not do the same thing I did yesterday and target two people at once. Makes more sense to focus in on one.

So you have no thoughts on why Elbirn is scum beyond a feeling right now and you don't want to do any analysis because it might cause sloppy play?
Because I can see it as equally plausible that right now you're not talking about anyone but Toon because you're trying to protect your scummates from association with you.

I mean there's not really a way for me to convince you the latter isn't the case outside of I suppose talking about other people, but I'm still working through my reads on others, so you'll have to wait for that.

[Elbirn]

@Elbirn

1. So what is the weather like where you live?

2. Not much time right now but I can write up a post about you sometime tonight.

1. Dark and rainy, I feel like I live in Seattle. And it's way too hot for February. Not a fan.

2. At your earliest convenience, yes, I'd like to hear your thoughts.

I feel like anyone not voting Toon right now needs to have a really good reason for doing so.

I cannot think of any good reason for why anyone would say this. This smells like scum. Pressuring people into a vote without any reasoning given and implying that anyone not on the wagon is subject to suspicion? No, no this won't do.

Terrible. I didn't say

anything

about suspicion. Not sure what world you and fish come from, but where I come from, having a crappy reason for doing something doesn't make you scum. The point of my comment was to hear why those not voting toon are abstaining, at which point I could tell them why they are wrong.

But here's the thing, you didn't say that at all. There wasn't a question, there was no "To everyone not voting Toon, why aren't you voting Toon?", it was a finger wag, a tsk-tsk-tsk to everyone not on the Toon wagon. I don't see your motivation as figuring out other people motivation, I see it as guilting/pressuring people into voting the same wagon as you, and that comes from a scummy mindset imo.

Eektor's starting to ping me as possible scum with these last few posts.
I feel like he started getting a lot more invested in saying things the moment that pie called him out as a scumspect, which may or may not indicate that before this he was just kind of casually sitting in the comfort of a bunch of slight townreads on him. I also feel like his responses to Pie have been very mechanical/potentially forced, but I could also see that being playstyle.
More a bad feeling than anything atm.

...

I do like that he (Elbirn) follows a line of questioning with acryon, but it doesn't really seem to go anywhere afterwards. He keeps kind of semi-committing to a softscumread on Acryon, while also being like "eh it could be buddying or it could just be nothing don't worry guyzz".
What really bugs me is that his worries on Acryon just seem to eventually disappear.
Like, this is less me saying that Elbirn is obviously scum for this and more saying that if either Elbirn or Acryon is scum, chances of the other being scum rises dramatically.

...

Elbirn's blatant self-awareness makes it hard to read him. q.q

Agreed with your Eektor analysis, at least as far as the whole beetlejuice thing is concerned.

I like that you brought up Acryon, because I hadn't thought about the Boon-Acryon connection since I posted that, and I pretty much put that aside after Victor & Copper went "look at me look at me LOOK AT ME" for a good 20 pages or so. I'll repeat what I said earlier, if one of Boon or Acryon flips, I'd take a good hard look at the other.

Not sure what that last part about self-awareness means?

I'm thinking possibly Monkey/Acryon now.

VOTE: Monkey

If someone votes Toon Fighter, I'm hammering, by the way. Toon's my second choice for toDay's lynch.

These two posts contradict each other.
Boon, why did you posit that Monkey/Acryon were scum in post 803? You had never before mentioned a scumread on him, and then you list him as your 2nd choice for a lynch. And then in 901 you contradict that by saying that Toon is your second choice? Huh?

I want to know your read on Acryon, and why.

[Toon Fighter]

sorry for the last few days, I've been v/la and didn't have a chance to warn. Will read and post tomorrow

[Boonskiies]

How do they contradict each other at all? There were 100 posts in between, and I also scum read Toon Fighter Day 1. I don't believe Toon Fighter is scum with Monkey, whereas I could see Acryon and Monkey scum together. I don't really have much reasoning for Acryon. Usually he tunnels me pretty hard as town, and he's playing kind of differently than I'm used to him playing. Also, his placing on the early day 1 wagon was odd to me, and I'd like to look into later, depending on the flips. I absolutely do not think Acryon should be today's lynch, as there's not enough scum reasoning behind my gut feeling, and I don't believe it'll give many reads. I'd much rather a Toon Fighter lynch than an Acryon.

[Boonskiies]

What I meant is I'm thinking they are possible scum buddies for now. I don't mention all of my reads necessarily, as early on in the game, I'm not really sure how to word it with it making sense to other people. I also said for now...plot points, yo.

[MonkeyMan576]

I don't see much conviction in any of your reads, Boon. Red flag, for sure.

[Boonskiies]

Because I'm scum reading you and also the person you are voting for? LLL. Is that implying you know Toon Fighter's going to flip town since my scum read on that is bad?

[MonkeyMan576]

No, I don't know where you got any of those assumptions from.

I said your reads lack conviction and I don't see any comprohensive reasoning.

[eektor]

I thought SiX was town and with pie's catchup post I still think that slot is town. As for his suspicion on me, I don't really know what to say when his main point against me is by PoE I must be scum. I don't think I'm coasting through the game either

. I might be a bit quiet but it's mostly because I'm still trying to figure the game out.

As of the start of Day 2 I was thinking a possible scum team of Toon, Elbirn, and acryon. Only way that is possible is if Elbirn and acryon are bussing hard their partner for town cred. Since Toon is being read as scummy by most everyone, that could be the case, but I have doubts that I have been biased that Toon is scum for the whole game and then there is the case that I'm town reading the people on Elbirn's wagon except for Toon.

I feel confident to say that I believe Cheetory is town and of course RC is town. I'd rather vote with those two than vote Toon with 2 people I think are scum.

And if there are 3 scum in the game, it makes me wonder why Elbirn's lynch is looking like it would be much harder to go through than a Toon lynch. Basically there appears to be a better probability that Elbirn is scum than Toon.

Important parts bolded.

1. If you're trying to figure the game out, how is being quiet helping you? I'm reading through your ISO, and I don't really see you making any pushes or scumhunting. You ask lots of questions, but they feel...Idle. Like they don't lead to anything. It's like you might as well have asked about the weather.

2. And once again we get justification for a vote by way of "I'm just sheeping people I think are town, no big deal". RC is conf town, but that does not mean she is right. Cheetory might be town, but we don't know that. Your scum reads might be scum, but once again we don't know that they are. So instead of having any reasoning for a vote, we get what basically amounts to an excuse. Hm.

Why DO you think I'm scum anyway?

1. Do you really think you need to ask questions to get information about someone? I ask questions when needed, if I see something I want to point out, I point it out, and then I like to see other people's interactions to see possible links. For instance, after going through your iso, I noticed a link between you and acryon.

2. My vote on you didn't come from thin air, throughout the game I found you suspicious. I even did mention that I was suspicious of you at the beginning. Just because I turned my attention and vote on others didn't mean I thought you were town, I just felt there were others more suspicious than you. I did say at the beginning of day 2 that I thought the scum team was Toon, Elbirn, and acryon. I voted Toon, then when I saw how the votes ended up I thought you were the best one to vote for, because two scum reads were voting for Toon and one scum read was voting for you. Also, if Toon flips scum it would be harder to find his buddies, but if you flip scum I will push for acryon next.

Why do I think you are scum?

1. Your vote progression in day 1. You started saying Victor vs copper was town vs town, then you thought Victor was right and copper was scum, you voted for copper. Then when the copper wagon wasn't going anywhere you went to Monkey. That's fine, but then you jumped to Victor at the end and tried to rationalize that even though you were sure he was town you would get more information out of his lynch. I don't see any town motivation in that, I see as scum trying to get a lynch through.

2. This deserves a separate point because you really were looking to hammer anyone at the end. I can understand if we are at a deadline but there was still a couple of days to go. It just reeked of overeager scum wanting to lynch someone.

3. There's been twice I've seen people accuse you and you throw up a post of "who cares". That type of behavior I see as coming more from scum who feels like they got caught.