Newbie 1575 - Game Over

[Micc]

VoteCount 1.05

prawneater (2)

: jared615, riku

jared615 (2)

: Thor665, Espeonage

pirate mollie (1)

: bji

riku (1)

: ocelot

Espeonage (1)

: prawneater

Not Voting (2)

: TheInvisibleGorilla, pirate mollie

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to Lynch or No Lynch.

Notes

: Espeonage is V/LA.
Thor665 is V/LA.

Deadline

: The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2015-02-19 11:10:00).

[TheInvisibleGorilla]

Apologies for my late response to being a replacement; I was not anticipating such an early entrance to a game after signing up.

So far all I can really pick up is that there seems to be an argument over whether or not being pedantic or nitpicky is town or scum behaviour. I'd have to read over the posts a couple more times to get a solid conclusion but it seems to me on the surface that choice of words and such are really the only pieces of evidence you can use to vote people on day one, no?

I kind of wanted to RVS but there seems to be too much that's already happened for that. Expect my vote within the next 48 hours; I'll need to do some more thorough reading. Thanks!

[bji]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p6589497]
... it seems to me on the surface that choice of words and such are really the only pieces of evidence you can use to vote people on day one, no?
[/quote]

I think interactions between people is even more interesting than word choices, but there has been so little of that outside of the "core" of myself, Thor, prawneater, and pirate mollie, that I think we really all have very little to go on at the moment.

Also, this being my second game, does anyone have any theories on why people have to be replaced out so often? Why do people join the queue if they have no intention of actually playing? Do people find that they don't like their role assignment and just don't even bother playing it? Would that be more likely for scum or town, or neither?

I can say that I was a scum in my first game and was one of the, I think, three replaces in, one of the other being the other scum. So in my very limited experience, replacing in is very scummy

[bji]

Sorry about messing up the quote tag. Man I hate these long URL quote tags, I always pick the wrong spot to modify them to shorten the quote and end up screwing up the quote altogether ...

[TheInvisibleGorilla]

Haha, I see what you're saying about the replacements. I personally don't think so (as I was at a record of 7 prods last game, thankfully wasn't replaced) because sometimes life just catches up, and people (especially newbies like us) don't realize how much of a time commitment this actually is. Especially with the depth of thought it requires.

[prawneater]

There's a thread in Mafia Discussion - The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread

Apparently newbie scum replace out at an insanely disproportionate rate. Enough so that lynching all newbie replacers is an excellent play for town.

I think we should lynch ocelot or riku.

[pirate mollie]

Replacing both ocelot and riku.

I was going to yell at shrimpy but then I looked back over our exchanges and saw this:

Replacing both ocelot and riku.

so he isn't being completely out there. however mizuki or whatever they were signed themselves up for another game. which makes me think they didn't like their role.

[bji]

Replacing both ocelot and riku.

I was going to yell at shrimpy but then I looked back over our exchanges and saw this:

Replacing both ocelot and riku.

so he isn't being completely out there. however mizuki or whatever they were signed themselves up for another game. which makes me think they didn't like their role.

Are they really allowed to do that? Is there a site rule that says that you can't join another game so soon after being replaced out? If not, there should be.

[Micc]

Fromage replaces ocelot.
Jared615 is being prodded.

Are they really allowed to do that? Is there a site rule that says that you can't join another game so soon after being replaced out? If not, there should be.

That type of behavior is considered bad form, and multiple offences could result in the player receiving punishment depending on the severity. In this case, its important to recognize that Mikazuki was replaced prior to her picking up (opening) her role PM.

[Fromage]

Hello everybody,
I'm a complete newbie in this kind of mafia. I've read some parts of the wiki and some finished games. However, this is still very unfamiliar to me. I hope it will turn out fun. Now, I'm going to catch up the first pages.
Kindly note that English is not my first language. Feel free but not obliged to correct me.

[Espeonage]

I am behind. My V/LA ended this morning but I've got a deadline on another thing in a few hours and then a shift tomorrow morning. I will catch up tomorrow evening.

Sorry.

[Fromage]

[quote="In [url=http://w
Apparently newbie scum replace out at an insanely disproportionate rate. Enough so that lynching all newbie replacers is an excellent play for town.

I think we should lynch ocelot or riku.[/quote]

I'm not especially fond of replacing in and directly being under fire. I think Ocelot was bored and maybe wanted to quicklynch. It's important to note that he was'nt under any pressure and did rarely contribute.

In addition to that the statistic is flawed if you wanna derive perfect play from that. Life expectancy of mafia is much higher than that of town. A townie who dies in the first night cannot be replaced later on. Thus you'd need a statistic how many newbie scums compared to newbie townies quit during day on for deriving perfect play.

[Fromage]

@bji: You told us to have played scum last round. Could you elaborate how your actual scum reading will appear different from your fake scum reading?

[Micc]

Shinobi replaces riku.

[Shinobi]

supbros

[Shinobi]

My focus is elsewhere at the moment but I'll check in in the morning.

[bji]

[quote="In [url=http://w
Apparently newbie scum replace out at an insanely disproportionate rate. Enough so that lynching all newbie replacers is an excellent play for town.

I think we should lynch ocelot or riku.

I'm not especially fond of replacing in and directly being under fire. I think Ocelot was bored and maybe wanted to quicklynch. It's important to note that he was'nt under any pressure and did rarely contribute.
[/quote]

Interesting that you feel the need to distance yourself from Ocelot's behavior as soon as you post in. Don't worry, you won't be under fire from me because of Ocelot's postings but yours I may not be so forgiving about

In addition to that the statistic is flawed if you wanna derive perfect play from that. Life expectancy of mafia is much higher than that of town. A townie who dies in the first night cannot be replaced later on. Thus you'd need a statistic how many newbie scums compared to newbie townies quit during day on for deriving perfect play.

I don't really follow your logic here:

1. How do you know that life expectancy of mafia is much higher than that of town?
2. What does the life expectancy of mafia vs. town have to do with the rest of your paragraph?
3. Nobody who dies in the first night can be replaced later on, including scum. So I don't quite understand how that factor ties into whether or not newbies are more likely to replace out if they have a scum alignment vs. a town alignment.
4. We're talking about first day replacers here obviously, so the odds of second day newbies replacing out being scum or town doesn't even enter into it. If we're still talking about it tomorrow, then it will be relevant.

@bji: You told us to have played scum last round. Could you elaborate how your actual scum reading will appear different from your fake scum reading?

Well I have never played town before now so I don't really know how to qualify what the difference would be. I think I did a reasonably good job of appearing to be town since I was never lynched (nor was my partner) and I only hit L-1 once and only briefly early in Day 2. It's because it's so easy to appear to be town that this game is a challenge. If it were easy to spot the scum then I expect games would be boring and end quickly!

For what it's worth, I was a complete newbie, never having played mafia in any form, nor read anything beyond the most basic explanation of the rules. My overall strategy in that game was to try to use my newbieness to my advantage by making "newbie mistakes" (that I realized would be perceived as mistakes as I was making them), also going off on grand theories to suggest that I was really trying hard to scum hunt, and also bussing my scum partner (and being bussed by them) heavily. It took alot of mental effort to stay off of everyone's scum radar (mostly - there were a couple who leaned scum on me but they never convinced anyone else) and yet also post frequently and contribute as much as I would do if I were town. But, it worked.

I feel much more relaxed in this game because a) it's my second game, I feel like I understand the game a bit better and know what to expect, and b) I can scum hunt without the pressure of having to fake being town.

So I suppose if there were one difference, it would be how much more relaxed I feel as town than as scum, and I expect that will show through to some degree in my play.

[TheInvisibleGorilla]

... I can't tell if it's because I'm tired but is it just me, or does bji seem like he's pushing the "I was scum but THIS round I'm not" card a lot?

I agree with him that connecting life-expectancy and replacements isn't really relevant in terms of what we're talking about, but I also think in the thought of being good sports we shouldn't be all that biased towards replacements, even if it's "in town's best efforts" because I think town can do better than just rely on statistics.

Because we're barely getting out of RVS (or at least that's where my head is right now) I'm going to place my vote where I think it will do the most work.

VOTE: bji

Something about that last post just doesn't sit right with my gut. I'll reevaluate that gut feeling in the morning.

[bji]

... I can't tell if it's because I'm tired but is it just me, or does bji seem like he's pushing the "I was scum but THIS round I'm not" card a lot?

I have said it a few times, but only because it's true, and with only one game experience under my belt, I expect alot of my thought process to be driven by comparing that game to this. In addition, I was directly asked how I would play differently as scum than town, and I gave an honest answer.

I'm not trying trick you. When I am, you won't suspect it

[Jared615]

Right Now I think Thor and bji are town.

And the rest I am not so sure of right now.

[Jared615]

prawneater posts make more sense to me now.

VOTE: pirate mollie

[TheInvisibleGorilla]

... I can't tell if it's because I'm tired but is it just me, or does bji seem like he's pushing the "I was scum but THIS round I'm not" card a lot?

I have said it a few times, but only because it's true, and with only one game experience under my belt, I expect alot of my thought process to be driven by comparing that game to this. In addition, I was directly asked how I would play differently as scum than town, and I gave an honest answer.

I'm not trying trick you. When I am, you won't suspect it

I get that, actually. Someone said the same thing about my first game because I kept quoting strategies from the tabletop game Resistance. I'm probably just tired then. Alas, midterms are keeping me up, and taking breaks to check mafia might not be the best of choices.

[Fromage]

[quote="In [url=http://w
Apparently newbie scum replace out at an insanely disproportionate rate. Enough so that lynching all newbie replacers is an excellent play for town.

I think we should lynch ocelot or riku.

I'm not especially fond of replacing in and directly being under fire. I think Ocelot was bored and maybe wanted to quicklynch. It's important to note that he was'nt under any pressure and did rarely contribute.

Interesting that you feel the need to distance yourself from Ocelot's behavior as soon as you post in. Don't worry, you won't be under fire from me because of Ocelot's postings but yours I may not be so forgiving about

In addition to that the statistic is flawed if you wanna derive perfect play from that. Life expectancy of mafia is much higher than that of town. A townie who dies in the first night cannot be replaced later on. Thus you'd need a statistic how many newbie scums compared to newbie townies quit during day on for deriving perfect play.

I don't really follow your logic here:

1. How do you know that life expectancy of mafia is much higher than that of town?
2. What does the life expectancy of mafia vs. town have to do with the rest of your paragraph?
3. Nobody who dies in the first night can be replaced later on, including scum. So I don't quite understand how that factor ties into whether or not newbies are more likely to replace out if they have a scum alignment vs. a town alignment.
4. We're talking about first day replacers here obviously, so the odds of second day newbies replacing out being scum or town doesn't even enter into it. If we're still talking about it tomorrow, then it will be relevant.[/quote]

Firstly, we're talking about this topic.http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739 Right?

Secondly, well I don't know for sure that mafia life expectancy is much higher than that of town. I expect it to be so. Townies die during day and night whereas mafia onnly dies at night.
From another point, at the beginning mafia are the small

[Fromage]

Oh no. Posted Submit way too early.

At the beginning, mafia are the small minority. However they often manage to be the majority at the end. That's a hint for higher life expectancy as well.

There are no statistics about first day replacers, only about the whole game. The latter show that newbie scum drop out fairly often.
Only living people can be replaced in the game. So a newbie who loses fun of the game after Night 1 might be already dead if he's town whereas mafia is probably still alive.

How often does Mafia die during Night 1?

[bji]

Oh no. Posted Submit way too early.

At the beginning, mafia are the small minority. However they often manage to be the majority at the end. That's a hint for higher life expectancy as well.

Well a) that's only if scum win and b) there are townies left at the end too.

Anyway, I am not sure that we're going to come to any significant conclusion by this line of argument. However, there is this:

Firstly, we're talking about this topic.http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739 Right?

I went and read that and wow, 66% replacement rate for scum newbies. Now not all of that is going to happen in the first day, but wow. That's a statistic right there. Should town really artificially handicap itself by ignoring that statistic in our game? Doing so is not playing to our win condition. I think it would be irresponsible to not at least consider that it's more likely that Fromage, Shinobi, and TheInvisibleGorilla are scum than anyone else, just based on that statistic. I don't want to punish people who replace in but this seems like a problem with the way the game is run more than anything else -- there should be a consequence for replacing out so that people can't do it just because they don't like their role. But given that there isn't, and apparently newbie scum replace out at an extraordinary rate, how can we not conclude that those who have replaced out should be under greater suspicion?

There are no statistics about first day replacers, only about the whole game. The latter show that newbie scum drop out fairly often.
Only living people can be replaced in the game. So a newbie who loses fun of the game after Night 1 might be already dead if he's town whereas mafia is probably still alive.

In my experience first day replacement is the most common, so extrapolating the statistics to include just first day replacement would lower that 66% figure but probably not by that much - say to 50%, which is still considerably higher than random chance which is 2/9, or 22.2%.

Additionally, consider that people who replace out for role-related reasons probably do it more often on the first day, since if they don't like their role on the first day, and they're the kind of asshol^h^h^h^h^h^hperson who would replace out just because they don't like their role, then I would expect them to do it as soon as they find out their role, i.e. on the first day.

So a question for Fromage: are you trying to play down the statistical evidence on the rate at which newbie scum replace out because you're in the slot of a newbie scum who replaced out?

How often does Mafia die during Night 1?

From the statistics thread, it's 22.5%, which is just a tiny fraction of a percent higher than random chance, which is 22.2%.

But why are you asking?