In post 2317, Ellie wrote:Setup design is not statistical.
The existence of a werewolf faction has as much to do with those twelve games as the result of a coin flip has to do with previous coin flips. Base setup spec on knowledge of ika, or stop speculating.
While events can be
independent
(what you described with the coin flips), in the world of probability
independence is actually vital to determining chance.
For any given independent event, there is still a probability of it happening.
So let's assume that there are wolves. If ABR is correct in saying the last 12 games did not have wolves, then the rate of wolves is 1/13. That makes P(Wolves) = 1/13 = 0.07692, roughly 7.69% of Normal games have a Wolf faction.
Converse
ly, there is a 12/13 chance that there is not a werewolf faction. P(Wolf
c) = 12/13 = .92307, or about 92.31% of the time. For any independent event, the probability of it happening n times is P(event)^n, so the probability of us
not
having wolves is P(Wolf
c)^13 (Since this will be the 13th game in the series of events) which is .34002, or ~34%.
But, here's the catch. It dawned on me that this happens only when events are random.
If ika did this setup 100% randomly, then my statistics are accurate. However, it is unlikely and unreasonable to assume randomness in a game that is created and operated at the leisure of a mod, therefore I must reject my probabilities based on reasons of bias.
In other words, arguing over the
chances
of this happening is pointless from a statistics standpoint. However, it is
completely valid
to say something to the degree of, "I find it hard to believe vf's story because it just seems so unlikely." It's okay to say that because, since the game was designed with a natural bias, everything is of opinion and vf cannot prove his case and nobody can disprove the case.
In post 2374, FA_Q2 wrote: In post 2367, Cheetory6 wrote:It's more the indirect manner in which you've chosen to deal with me up until this point that bugs me.
You're clearly aware that I've been scumreading you, so why go to the effort to call my case and play shit to other people but not say it directly to me or try to convince me that I'm wrong? I agree with you that I don't think people are considering you at all, which is why I'm trying to decide what I think of what's actually getting talked about right now rather than apparently just dumbly trying to push you and everyone ignoring it.
If you're so sure that ellie and VK are scum together, why aren't you voting ellie instead?
Because I think that VK is the better target at the moment and his flip will strengthen/weaken the ellie case considerable. I do not think that the revers is nessisarily true. I also have an issue with blindly refusing to lynch people no matter how scummy they might be because of a role claim.
Yesterday the argument was do not lynch VF because it is not a good idea to lynch a claimed cop. I agree with that for the first day - give it a chance to play out. Day two roles around and the argument is EXACTLY the same. Why is tomorrow going to be any different. How long do we play around with vf? We already have a good idea that even if his claim is completely honest - he is not going to be helping town anytime soon. I dont think ellie is the best lynch.
I am not against her wagon though. If the decision at the end of the day is between her and VF then I will not shed a tear but I am going to stick with VF until I am convinced that he is not the best wagon to pursue OR it is shown that he is simply not a valid lynch for this day.
So if we lynch VF we could potentially lynch the cop, but there's nothing actually saying he's the cop because he didn't have a result to turn over to us today.
The only thing to be had from voting for vf is the value of his flip, which will help strengthen or diminish a lot of scumreads (Ellie, ABR, maybe a little on Math, etc.). The questions is:
Are you okay with that? Are you okay with lynching a potential cop in exchange for information on a few (at least two) other players?
In post 2379, goodmorning wrote:WHAT? MULTIPLE PEOPLE HAVE EXPLAINED THEIR REASONS FOR FINDING VIKING'S CLAIM POSSIBLE AND ABR INSISTS THAT IT'S IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT ADDING ANYTHING NEW TO THE DISCUSSION?????
O M G
W O W
1) Nobody said it was impossible for vf to be lying, not even ABR. The issue is doubt. A lot of us (including myself) are very doubtful of vf's claim, and he hasn't responded to my (that I've noticed) question about what his response PM.
2) Your yelling and capsing and general flaily response isn't necessary.
3) Even if you think ABR is a prick, there's no reason to go off like a firecracker for it. Keep your cool and relax.
In post 2402, Kitz wrote:So, after having disappeared for a tiny while and return to read.
What The Fuck Did I Just Read?
It's like a bunch of kids bickering way to dawn for not being Player 1 in that nintendo game.
Multiple players have gone through the process of BSOD in their brains. Cool.
I also notice that I've been quite transparrent. Nothing in referrence to me or anything, even though I did a shotgun blast at the recent scumhunt.
I'm also mindfucked enough to write like this.
NJ's even more scummy for it's lack of contribution and lack of care about the blames.
Shin's scummier too.
ABR's just being weird at the moment spite being scummy. Yo dewd, you like to argue.
Morning's even more visible. ALL DAT CAPZ
Okay.
So.
Why all that bickering with the Setup, not about the actual setup, but the freaking Lottery Chance about it? When I hosted stuff on TvT, I just use RandomOrg or something and randomize roles, before balancing it. I assume the hosts do that here too, so Statistically I don't think that's a thing to argue about. Then again I have little clue about hosting setups in MF, but man, is that really that argue worthy about Chance? It's like the Blue Scratchcard has a higher chance to win than the Red Scratchcard...
My opinion about VK Lynch :
1. The only thing it confirms for us is that there's 3 killers in the setup.
2. Although it might reveal scum mates, everyone's crazy and weird here. Even normal town may be reluctant, so would it actually tell much at this point?
3. Food for thought. What if he's immune and used that as a bullshit excuse to get away?
4. Another food for thought. What if he's part of a 2nd team and the first one is against him?
5. Why are no one giving him a last chance? The RB is dead, and if he's Cop Scum would kill him anyway. A mislynch would just waste our time if 5 is the case.
6. Because of 5, I think there's better targets, who can actually give information by a lynch.
Have fun with your new conspiracy theories. 5 holds the greatest weight, and we can lynch him the next day anyway if he fails all.
Another thing : Why is it under the radar that ABR retracted his Tracker claim? He claimed Tracker out of the freaking blue because he didn't have time to deal with the BS he said, and then later he retract by saying that he read it's a different role PM.
If that's true, he have Sinned. Not discussing more of that Sinned thing, but let's see... He retracts? Are you really letting that go under the radar? You should take your time to read the Role PM, and if you're going to claim a role then you're going to make sure it's your role before you end up getting counterclaimed by an actual tracker and then lynched. This is extremely anti-town behavior, inconsiderate, and risked revealing even more PR.
Would an Experienced Player do this? From what I see, he's from 2007. That's more than enough time to avoid any of this.
VOTE: Albert B. Rampage
So you say NJ and Shin are "scummier" this day. Can I have more info on the Shin part? I get the NJ points. I do think his hammer was scummy but I believe I explained why I don't think he's scum.
As for your part about ABR, I do agree that it is really shitty to have lied about being a tracker (or perhaps been genuinely mistaken). The thing is, I don't think he's scum based on how sincerely he's pushing Ellie. Granted, this read is biased because I find Ellie to be mildly scummy (Or at least anti-town), but I don't feel like a scum would push genuinely on someone like Ellie.
I'm still struggling with the whole vf/Ellie debate in my head: Which one is scummier and warrants a vote? I'm leaning towards a vf lynch over an Ellie lynch because Ellie, while I've had some iffy reads on her, sort of exudes a kind of town-like frustration as a result of ABR's push on her and on vf. If we lynch vf, and he flips town, Ellie will be all but confirmed town in my mind. On the other hand, a scum vf flip would make me lean more scum on Ellie.
I think the vikingfan lynch is valuable for the read potential it has. I'm willing to go ahead and
VOTE: vikingfan.
