Touhou UPick 3 - [Game Over]


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Post Post #725 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:08 pm

Post by Malakittens »

Notty we can dance.

I just haven't moved my vote bc you're not in danger and I havwnt see anyone else worthy f the vote atm
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #726 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:10 pm

Post by notscience »

It feels like its a placeholder

Like why not use it to get other reads

why just park it even if im not in danger
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STRIKE HARD

STRIKE FAST

NO MERCY
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Post Post #727 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:27 pm

Post by Malakittens »

I'm getting reads... Just not scum reads.

UNVOTE: Notty

W/e I don't get why you're so fussed about one vote when there's mult players with multi votes.. (Sak/killa)
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #728 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:47 pm

Post by Drezi »

In post 694, Shadoweh wrote:Drezi be a dear and claim

I just woke up, I'm Tewi Inaba residing in the 2 player PT of Eientei with the Muffin, I have an investigative night ability and a daycard I can recover during the night.

In post 709, zMuffinMan wrote:Would it count as putting unfair pressure on you if I ask you to talk about these?

I would have probably posted about them if it was more than an inexplicable feel I'm getting from their posts. For Shadoweh it's really nothing more than that, as for Kagami, if I had to force myself to point at something, it probably would be the way Kagami seems to be clinging onto you (and maybe) and keeps talking about setup otherwise for the most part, it is giving me a weird feeling.

pieguyn seems to be a really awkward way of backing off on their prev stance and announcing intent to join the wagon. It's not like she couldn't just change her mind like Sakura did and vote.
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Post Post #729 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:10 pm

Post by Shadoweh »

Have you two spoken in the PT? Because being linked sure seems to have Muffin riled up for some reason.
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Post Post #730 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:18 pm

Post by Drezi »

Nope, it's been locked, night talk only. I received the link in my role PM, in the topic it stated we're the only players with access and that's about it.
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Post Post #731 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:18 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 728, Drezi wrote:pieguyn seems to be a really awkward way of backing off on their prev stance and announcing intent to join the wagon. It's not like she couldn't just change her mind like Sakura did and vote.

you're aware Shadoweh declared intent to hammer? there's no reason for me to join the wagon. I've also been pretty obviously hinting that I still don't feel strongly you're scum and that it took zmuffin persuading me for 2 pages for me to consider the possibility.

those questions in that post weren't rhetorical. I think zmuffin is correct that all of your effort so far has been on discrediting the people pushing you. what you're doing right now (as opposed to, again, trying to ask questions to confirm/deny the inexplicable feels you're supposedly getting on a lot of your reads) is backing this up.
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Post Post #732 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:24 pm

Post by Sakura Hana »

In post 720, pieguyn wrote:cos I'm marathoning Ar Tonelico II with Sakura

That was such a nice stream. Tho now i'm too tired to check anything indepth, so i'm just gonna sleep, if i missed any questions please link/quote/restate them by the time i wake up.
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Post Post #733 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:05 pm

Post by Drezi »

In post 731, pieguyn wrote:what you're doing right now

is pointing out something I found off before I'm lynched.

In post 720, pieguyn wrote:I really wish you would do a lot more that isn't just pushing zmuffin. the only strong push you made was on zmuffin, but it's pretty obvious you were forming most of these reads as the game progressed. why haven't you spent any time at all trying to pursue whatever it was that's making you flip flop back and forth on Sakura/Ank every 3 posts? or pursue Kagami/Shadoweh at all?

instead we get you pushing zmuffin even more, and while I can't say I think it looks disingenuous, I don't really like where your focus has been this game. it doesn't seem like you're really trying to figure out the gamestate here.

I guess I was waiting to see more from you and I'm not happy with what I saw :<

you're basically saying you're ok with going along with my lynch, but also saying that you're sorry that I'm getting lynched despite being quite possibly town.

In post 731, pieguyn wrote:you're aware Shadoweh declared intent to hammer? there's no reason for me to join the wagon

your vote doesn't matter, your opinion still does just as much, so don't try to act like you're not actually jumping on a wagon

In post 731, pieguyn wrote:as opposed to, again, trying to ask questions to confirm/deny the inexplicable feels you're supposedly getting on a lot of your reads

yes, I'm not going to go about and point useless questions at people (which seems to be the pinnacle of towniness here) because of my gut impressions right away, I'll wait and see and post when there's stuff I actually want them to answer to.
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Post Post #734 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:38 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 733, Drezi wrote:you're basically saying you're ok with going along with my lynch, but also saying that you're sorry that I'm getting lynched despite being quite possibly town.

that's not what I'm saying at all. I'm ok with your lynch explicitly _because_ I think you're more likely to be scum than town at this point. I'm apologetic because I thought you were town before.

In post 733, Drezi wrote:your vote doesn't matter, your opinion still does just as much, so don't try to act like you're not actually jumping on a wagon

if my vote doesn't matter, why was me not explicitly voting you such a big deal?

In post 733, Drezi wrote:yes, I'm not going to go about and point useless questions at people (which seems to be the pinnacle of towniness here) because of my gut impressions right away, I'll wait and see and post when there's stuff I actually want them to answer to.

my problem here is this essentially means that outside of me/zmuffin (and the case on Rylai), there's literally nothing that you wanted people to answer to in this entire game. are you claiming this is the case?

like, this is basically why I eventually decided to wait for more content from you. I figured at first that you were having a slow start and didn't really think anything of it because I didn't mind the comments you were making. but I thought after being pressured for more thoughts, you'd have anything at all to ask about that wasn't related to how people were pushing you, and got fuck all.
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Post Post #735 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:56 pm

Post by Shadoweh »

You could vote him anyways, it's not like he'd be getting less deader. Unless you would prefer Rylai still at this point? I agree with Drezi that the way you flipped on him is strange-looking. If he does end up lynched and flips town I would seriously consider pressing you tomorrow for what's going on there.

I would like zMuffin to explain if what he thought was off about Drezi's role is there in what he claimed. I am satisfied enough not to hammer atm (I mean, it's only half the game day over anyways.). I find it concerning that everyone agrees on this path but I guess Serene just got boring after awhile. I am looking forward to ooba posting!
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Post Post #736 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:25 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 735, Shadoweh wrote:You could vote him anyways, it's not like he'd be getting less deader. Unless you would prefer Rylai still at this point? I agree with Drezi that the way you flipped on him is strange-looking. If he does end up lynched and flips town I would seriously consider pressing you tomorrow for what's going on there.

not really interested. in addition to the fact that I still don't have strong feelings for him being scum, I want a response to my questions before finalizing the read there.

I would still prefer either Rylai or Sky_Paladin. probably Sky_Paladin, actually, bc I'm going through his wall posts in detail now and a lot of what he's saying is scummy as fuck. elaboration on this should be coming soon, I'm currently writing it.

also, fwiw, I'm pretty sure with Drezi-town scum-me has a lot more to gain in this situation by not flip flopping on him and continuing to defend him instead. it would be an easy way for me to get cred with zmuffin (who would be the person I would fear the most) after Drezi flips town, and there's enough people in the game scum reading Drezi that I wouldn't need to vote him for him to be lynched. on the other hand I was pretty aware the timing of my switch looked weird when I started questioning him. /shrug
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Post Post #737 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:05 am

Post by ooba »

Strong Town
- Sakura Hana (Claim - both timing and wording)
- Katsuki\Relentless (for the massclaim pushes)
- pieguyn (Town reads in #114 somewhat agreeing with my shortlist and general posting feels spot on)

Mild Town
- Malakittens (for “Rentless could be town, but no masclaim.”)
- zMuffinMan (Intial posting was neutral but turned to a mild town read across pages. Cannot pinpoint)
- Rylai Crestfall (for scum reading Sky\General posting)

Town leaning but not as much as above
- SB

Don’t Like
- thdgkdms (push on predecessor\calling pies 144 bad)
- Kagami (don't like posting\also 'neighbourhood spec')

Scum?
- Sky_Paladin (The attack on my predecessor #112 has a scummy vibe.)
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Post Post #738 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:07 am

Post by ooba »

^ Forgot to add this bit again after forum ate up the initial post. 'I'm upto page 13. These are my reads as of then.'
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Post Post #739 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:06 am

Post by Kilgamayan »

In post 727, Malakittens wrote:W/e I don't get why you're so fussed about one vote when there's mult players with multi votes.. (Sak/killa)


This looks really disingenuous. Surely you don't think !science is pushing you to produce a meaningful vote because we need a larger volume of votes?
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Post Post #740 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:10 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Yay I'm not dead (yet).

Muffins 634 made me re-consider my case on SB somewhat and I was looking forward to a reasonable discussion with SB, however when I logged on and saw he'd used a spell card on me I assumed it was either to vig or silence me. I had ten minutes before I had to go to work so I just tried to put out anything I could think of. Now I have some more time, however...

SB if you ever decide at some point this day phase that I'm probably not scum, please let me know if I have to worry about your spell card or not.

Kagami
I'm a night-evolving SK, I gain one additional shot per night (essentially I get as many shots as the night number). So a massclaim come D4/5 might be a good idea so that I can just choose which faction I want to win. I'll probably just pick whichever faction has more players that I'm fond of. <3

I should add that I'm lynchproof and possibly bulletproof~


I was lol until...

I didn't fakeclaim
. FG needs to update his ruleset.


I don't really care about the night-evolving additional shot lynchproof bulletproof crap, but Kagami claimed ITP in a game that specifically has no ITP.

I initially listed Kagami/Relentless as scum because of somehow guessing that SB meant Serious Bananas and stating it was just a guess. If I saw SB I'd have guessed 'Super Ball' or something else. I think SB is too oblique to pluck Serious Bananas out of. So I figured Kagami is in a neighbourhood of some sort and doesn't want to admit it. And why SB would come up in conversation is anybody's guess, enough to warrant his full name coming out, is anybody's guess, but of course I'll say it's because they're scumbuddies ^_~

After I started writing this wall post though and was coming up with a great theory about why SB and Relentless were scum buddies with Kilga, I remembered there was no day chat so I was :C

But that claim.

This stuff is mostly replying to SB and it's long so it's spoilered. If you're interested in scum reading me or SB, I think it's worth your time.

Spoiler:
"I already said this stuff was all wrong because the completed games list wasn't updated after AA mafia ended and I was scum there and *gasp* never made a bus joke in that game!"
It was an anonymous game. I didn't know you were in it, so I didn't consider it. With the benefit of hindsight, I'm guessing you were Missile and after checking, no, I didn't see a joke.

"Using statistics to justify a shitty argument is scummy as hell. Even if it wasn't, how is 2 games a big enough sample size for it?"
The sample size was 8 (now 10). In this game, many players are making the argument "Player x usually does y, this game they did z, so therefore they are alignment m". You yourself did it when you initially cleared Serene Forest, and Serene Forest did it when they hopped off of your vote.
I actually think meta, and the whole "player x always does y" argument is weak. That is why I first investigated if I agreed with your vote on Pieguy, and then went backwards to evaluate other points in what you had said and done. If I only had the meta argument, I wouldn't have voted.

Statistics in this context are a means of applying concrete data behind a meta argument. It's no different. So yes, I agree, using meta alone as the basis for a vote is a scum move. However, I also used analysis on your vote, and went further than just meta, and attempted to provide solid data behind my reasoning.

The nature of a town argument is that it is specific and it can be argued against. Scum arguments tend to be more vague and general, so that when challenged, a player is able to worm their way out. I am not afraid of making strong points that can be argued against, because I ultimately know that my motivation is valid and that I will stand up under questioning. I also expect other players to stand up to intense questioning.

That's the reason I asked you to link games to counter my point, because
I wanted to know if you were scum
and I'm not satisfied with parking a vote on you and walking away. If you look at my most recent game, Draft Mafia, that you hosted, you can see I apply pressure to Raikaria early in the game, don't vote, make an early case and vote Mitsuki, continue to apply pressure, suddenly unvote when Mitsuki was at L-1, pick up Bard for his vote switching, and then start the next day phase best friends with these two. I was vanilla town. There is a lot more in common with my play in that game than in AUS mafia. You were moderating it, you cannot failed to have noticed this.

"3 of my latest 6 games on MotK have been scumgames, including the most recent one. I already pointed this out to you, but instead of looking into it you ignored me and said that I was lying scum. I also cited a game that I made a bus joke as town (on SF) in this game so this is clearly wrong."

I actually looked in to it in great detail, and asked you to link the games that you had vaguely referred to. "3 of my latest 6 games" - you didn't play every game. Serene asked you to link a town game where you made a bus joke. I asked you to link a town game where you made a bus joke on another player. It doesn't exist.
I looked in to it in great detail or otherwise I would not have made the point because it would have easily been disproven.

I accept that you played more scum games and didn't make a joke in them than I originally accounted for.
You still haven't provided a town game where you joke bussed another player.


"I'm not sure how you forgot either of these games considering they were hilarious trainwrecks but whatever."
They were anonymous games and I didn't know you were in them.

"Why is it more likely that I'm a maflord changing my story than a townie who isn't 100% clear about what he's saying?"
I'm asking you questions
because
I want you to be more clear about what you are saying. I feel you were being vague and ambiguous. That is the scum lifestyle. I want you to be clear.

"I'm sorry that I don't conform to your vision of what a perfect townie should do? Even though it's easy for scum mimic objectively *good* town play and get away with it."
Lynch players that claim scum imo.
If you are scum this game, are you ever going to bus joke another player again?
I have a pretty wide range of what I consider 'perfect townie'. I'll go in to this in greater detail when I go over my reads, as requested. Generally, I consider 'perfect' townie as:
Actively participating.
Making votes with cases.
Defending their votes (rather than changing their vote frequently)
Easy to read progression of investigation from initial wide range of suspects that zeroes on to a target.
Reasonable conclusions.

I dislike players that change their vote a lot, empty vote, or waffle.

"Cool. Which is it? You don't get to say stuff like that when like Dan pointed out you've only really brought up points on me and Serenes."

I simply don't have the time to write significant cases on all players, although if I had that time I would certainly do it. I just pursue the one or two that are most likely. In any case, pushing forward multiple scum suspects increases the likelihood that I'm wrong and the un-accounted for scums will push the lynch on to that player.

For example, I put forward Serene and SB this game. There's a lot of votes on Serene, and there's no votes on SB. I feel that if SB was an innocent towny, there'd be more votes there, because I wrote a huge wall, and it's easy to just agree and vote. Some of the votes on Serene have been there since RVS though.

Chief on my list of people who are acting unreasonably is Kilga, and I intend to look at him when I don't have to deal with you. I'm hoping I can deal with you either by sorting you into a town pile, or getting a lynch on certainly-scum-SB.

"Townies are not going to be 100% certain of their reads and I could follow pie's thought process and see why he was indecisive and so it felt like he was really an uncertain townie instead of scum making it up."
I can accept this.

lmao

I posit that you are purely voting for me and spellcarding me purely because I made a case and am voting you. I'm sure if I voted elsewhere, you're hostility would go away.

Dan/Kilga/Shadoweh should read the first few pages of AUS mafia (that's all you need to read of it I think?) so they can tell me I'm not crazy about Sky's play being the exact same between these two games.


I really want to know why you specifically called out those three players. Specifically Dan/Kilga since they are already scum reading me. What are you trying to achieve here?

I guess I'd ask that, if players are going to read the first few pages of Aus mafia, they do the same for Draft mafia. It's fair, isn't it?

Forgot to do this.

I was, at the time, really angry that you spellcarded me. I thought you had vigged me or silenced me and I was like "Well obviously he is scum, rather than continue the conversation he wants to end it by force." Since I'm not dead or apparently harmed in any way I've calmed down a bit.

I'm going to hit post here and deal with the next thing.
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Post Post #741 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:13 am

Post by thdgkdms »

Lily did that thing where Lily read through zMuffinMan and Drezi's posts together! Lily really likes that feature on this forum!
Lily would have to say that, upon reading through this, Lily thinks that Drezi looks worse in the exchange.
Lily doesn't quite understand why Drezi wanted to hold their reads so much before finally revealing them to everyone in but Lily wants to think about this later.
Also, Lily is not impressed by ooba's latest posts!
Lily still thinks that the lynch would be best on him!
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Post Post #742 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:26 am

Post by Kagami »

I'm not katsuki.
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Post Post #743 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:28 am

Post by pieguyn »

OK. the main reason I think Sky_Paladin is scum is bc I think the stances he's taking this game, especially his push on SB, generally look forced. I'm going to sound like a huge hypocrite saying this, but it looks more like he's just coming up with excuses to paint SB as scummy as opposed to asking genuine questions. I also agree that his play has been completely reactionary.

the first thing (which I touched on already) is that in his first catchup post, he calls Serenes and all the ppl defending him scum, and then proceeds to come up with reasoning for it. which as I said isn't scummy by itself. however, a lot of the reasons he has are completely specious, or otherwise outright wrong. I'm not going to point every single one out, but there were a few that struck me as extremely wrong:

In post 431, Sky_Paladin wrote:SB acknowledges that he screwed up in 86 when he states:
"Sky looked like he's making an attempt to look useful but wasn't really sticking his neck out and doing much. The post that cut me while I was writing this is kind of a counterexample though so meh."

this is strictly false. he is claiming that SB () is acknowledging that he "screwed up", aka that his original reasoning for voting SB was false.

that is not what SB was doing. SB was not retracting the original reasoning for his read. the post SB is referring to is , which came after his initial scum read on Sky_Paladin.

not only did he never assert that the original scum read he had was wrong, he never actually screwed up here. his read progression went from thinking Sky_Paladin was sitting on the sidelines attempting to look useful, to seeing and questioning it.

there is nothing wrong here. this indicates that Sky_Paladin is pushing something that, if he was adequately reading the thread, he should really know is false, which in turn indicates he's making it up. plus, the way Sky_Paladin claims he "screwed up" comes off as nothing more than a weak attempt at discrediting.

In post 431, Sky_Paladin wrote:Pie and Muffin keep on talking. Pie: 277
the only scum read I have is Sky_Paladin but at this point the only reasoning behind it is I still don't see how he gets "reckless" from Serenes' initial reasoning.

Pie has also clarified that she has some issues with Serene but doesn't see Serene's actions as scummy at this point. She's confused her story here; originally she was saying my vote was bad because I said SB was reckless.

this is also strictly false. I explicitly said when I initially voted him () I thought his point that Serenes was "reckless" was a straw man, namely, he said Serenes was reckless when he wasn't actually being reckless.

the other problem I had with the 1st wall was that the progression on his read on me doesn't make much sense given what he was trying to accomplish with the wall. it initially started off as an attempt to look at all the ppl who were defending or otherwise related to SB. however, if you read through the wall, most of the interactions between me/the other players that he points out point towards at most towards me being town, which given he did this with me and I think 3 of the other players, should make me more likely to be town: ex. the part where he claims SB incorrectly claimed I was singling GIF out, or SB voting me because I voted Rylai. he also claims at several points that suspicion of me is misguided, or explicitly agrees with stuff I'm doing (e.g. questioning Dan on his Rylai town read).

however, at the end he declares a scum read on me anyway for contradicting myself. now, I don't think this is that strong a point because he outlined the reasoning for it, but I think it's more likely to come from a scum POV of determining what reads you want to push and coming up with the reasoning later. I think a town player would be more likely to just analyze the interactions and openly declare "xxx probably doesn't make sense as scum with the others" instead of analyzing a bunch of interactions and sometime later going "o wait, this guy is scum anyway even though the interactions point to him being town".

this is even more so the case given that at the end of the wall, he called all 5 of his initial pool scum anyway. the result of this is that we get a post that gets basically nowhere, and actively goes _against_ what it was trying to accomplish at the start. it's scum posting a bunch of words, but not actually drawing any conclusions from it.

In post 632, Sky_Paladin wrote:You're number one scum read became a town read. Really. Why is that?

"genuine waffling"

Since when was waffling aka non-content-posting a basis for town clearing? Fabricated justification.

this is not indicative of what SB actually did. SB had been pretty clearly hinting () since I responded to his initial vote on me that my response was fine and that he didn't suspect me anymore, and that he was just leaving the vote on as a placeholder. this occurred before Sky_Paladin even caught up.

(incidentally, he completely left 425 out of both of his catchup posts, which indicates he might have missed it, but this is the kind of thing I would expect someone to pick up on if they were actually attempting to cross-reference the reasons behind their push, which again indicates he was just coming up with reasons to push someone without caring if they were true)

this wasn't SB taking his "number-one" scum read and reversing it on the basis of "genuine waffling", it was SB taking a null read and finding something town about it later. it reads more like scum coming up with a throwaway reason to call someone scum instead of town legitimately thinking this.

In post 632, Sky_Paladin wrote:I don't think ALL of you are scum. I just think SOME of you are scum.

In post 632, Sky_Paladin wrote:You mean like when Kilga voted five players?

this is a pretty big contradiction. he's claiming that a town player can think that not all of their scum reads are scum, but completely ignores the fact that Kilga is doing the exact same thing and instead calls him scum for what is equivalent to having a lot of scum reads. he doesn't care that what Kilga is doing here can come from town because he's just scum BS'ing. I also have no idea what he was aiming to accomplish with this question in the first place - it's a pretty throwaway question that isn't relevant to anything - so it reads as nothing more than a deflection.

In post 632, Sky_Paladin wrote:Basically SB is voting me because I voted him. It's OMGUS.

this reads like nothing more than scum claiming "lol OMGUS" in order to discredit SB's push on him. in addition to the fact that he doesn't justify how SB's push is OMGUS or why OMGUS is scum motivated, "OMGUS" isn't even indicative of what SB's reasoning actually was. SB pretty clearly () called him scum for being extremely reactionary and stretching to justify the associatives he was pushing, as well as the fact that this fit more with his scum meta than his town meta.

nothing here attempts to analyze motivation, or figure out what scum actually has to gain by doing most of the things he's calling ppl out for. it's all throwaway reasons that in most cases aren't even true.

my last problem is his reads list. he supposedly had Sakura, Ank, Drezi, and Dan as scum. however, he did, quite literally, nothing to push or
even explain any of those reads
. like, fucking really? he spent all that time walking everyone through why there was supposedly scum in SB and his defenders, but didn't do anything at all to lay out his other scum reads or question anyone outside of that group. I would also expect a town player to be more likely to actually post the reasoning for their reads when they think they're about to die. there's a certain mentality town players have when they think they're dead; they scramble to do every single last possible thing in order to get whatever thoughts they have out. this wasn't like that at all. it was half-hearted. it looked more like scum going through the motions and thinking they would give a reads list as town, so they put up a reads list.

and the other problem is that he had been soft-pushing the Drezi wagon the entire time (start of ) while actually doing all this. what the actual fuck? I don't even know what to say to that. I could think of possible town explanations, but come the fuck on. it's him adding fire to the main wagon of the day (which incidentally makes me pretty sure Drezi is town if Sky_Paladin is scum here), while not actually pushing him and instead writing a bunch of words that don't do anything and hoping no one calls him on it. I admit it's possible the Drezi read would come from town, but the overall narrative here makes so much more sense with him as scum pushing Drezi as a mislynch to the point where it's almost ridiculous.




if you're looking for a tl;dr, these are the strongest points here:

1. contradiction re: Kilga and having multiple scum reads. he says he only thinks *some* of his scum reads are scum, but yells at Kilga for multivoting when it's fairly obvious Kilga's votes represent his scum reads.
2. a lot of arguments that are false and/or inconsistent with information that is in the game thread.
3. soft pushing the Drezi wagon while not actually being on it and instead writing a bunch of stuff that's not relevant to anything.
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Post Post #744 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:30 am

Post by pieguyn »

VOTE: SKY_PALADIN


I want to know what zmuffin thinks (because Sky_Paladin is pretty fucking obviously doing the same shit you're accusing Drezi of doing, and I don't know how you don't see this), and I also want Drezi's thoughts on the point I brought up to Shadoweh re: my flip flop on him.
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Post Post #745 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:48 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

In post 735, Shadoweh wrote:I would like zMuffin to explain if what he thought was off about Drezi's role is there in what he claimed

My theory is most likely wrong, but I'll talk about it anyway since it was the initial reason I was wary of Drezi.

It has to do with this piece of information:
In post 0, FakeGod wrote:There may be abilities/spellcards that skip Day and/or Night Phases. Beware!

I know FakeGod is the kind of mod to include this sort of information because he doesn't like blindsiding town (especially after the last Touhou Upick where he was heavily criticised for this), which means whoever has this ability is almost certainly scum.

I also knew that, given my list of choices, if I were to be in a neighbourhood this game, there would be a decent chance I'd be paired with one of the only characters for which is makes sense (flavour-wise) that they could do this. There simply aren't a whole lot of powers in the Touhou universe where manipulation of day/night fits.

Obviously nothing here is rock solid, which is why I've been assessing his play as objectively as possible (or attempting to). It's not a major factor in my scum read of him, but it definitely was the catalyst for how I approached him in this game. However, I don't think it makes much sense that Tewi is the one who can do this, so if Drezi's character claim is to be believed, my theory about this is probably wrong.

I'm currently considering the possibility of lynching elsewhere (mostly because it is theoretically sound to leave an investigative claim alive at least one night), but I'm still not feeling his play looks town.
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Post Post #746 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:48 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

SB
I think a pretty big difference between town and scum Sky is that the latter tends to spend more time tunneling on one target as opposed to trying to figure out the game

Please go check Draft mafia. This game has a lot more in common with anything else I've played.
This game I started on Serene, then advanced to you. That's not tunneling on one target.

especially when he apparently has /9 scumreads/ but has pressed a total of two of them over the course of the game


As explained previously: I simply don't have time to properly evaluate everybody. I do a general sort, then drill down, and then move on when satisfied (or a more scummy player appears). While drilling Serene, I discovered you. Now you are being drilled. Either I'll get you as flipped scum, or I'll move on to somebody more likely.

Make 1-2 sentences minimum for every single scumread. I'm having a lot of trouble wrapping my head around why anyone would have this list.

This list was INITIALLY composed off the top of my head based on my gut feelings. I'll clarify and amend as necessary.

I had ten minutes to post and I had not interacted with every player in a meaningful way yet. In any case...

SXTLHGaiden - null
I wanted to put Gaiden as scum because I feel like they don't exist this game and I can't remember ever seeing them vote. So that normally would be enough for me to put them in the scum wagon, but Muffin thinks he is town and I trust muffin. So he gets null, but I really want to see some content or some kind of decisive action.

GuyInFreezer - town
I started hating both Letties but the other Letty has been very active and making their opinion known. I get the impression they are a mason pair. I don't really have a solid feeling about GiF but I have a good feeling about Thkgdms so GiF gets a clear by association.

zMuffinMan - town
I put a lot of weight in to what zMuffin says. I'm not exactly sheeping him, but often when I've been reading his posts I've been nodding my head and agreeing and feeling like "This guy says what I want to say only faster and people listen." So I intuitively want to trust him, but I'm wary of that 'expert manipulator' under his name.

Sakura Hana - scum
I hate that Sakura is flipping her votes around all over the place and doesn't seem to have any solid opinions. Her passive ability seems more harmful to town than scum. I don't think I've read a case from Sakura. She just exists, and she exists to cause harm.

pieguyn - scum
pieguyn writes a lot more than I do and splits it up over a million awful posts. I hate just about everything pie has ever said, but that's okay, because pie seems to hate it too and changes her opinion every page. At least that's my impression. I think she's noisy, takes up far too much town focus, and even if she's town would consider dayvigging the slot.

notscience - null
I couldn't remember this player standing out in any way so I gave them a null.

Ankamius - scum
When reading this players posts, I often get a feeling that there is something wrong with them. I haven't analysed in depth but I'm basically unhappy with Ankamius and I'm not really sure why. I have time coming up in 2 days RL and I would like to ISO Ank at that time. While I've listed Ank as scum, I'm not comfortable voting them atm because I don't have a concrete reason and I hate to vote without cause.

Drezi - scum
I basically agree with pretty much everything Muffin has said and I was unimpressed with Drezi's response. Drezi actually read my wall and poked at it a bit so I was leaning town on Drezi until Muffin destroyed him. I want to go back and read what Drezi has said, in detail, so I can make a better decision.

ActionDan - scum
My initial assessment of Dan as scum was tainted by the fact that I hate Dan as a player and would dayvig him every game if possible because he always afk's out and gets mislynched in LYLO to lose the game. Usually by me. Dan has also thrown out a number of weird statements that seem completely at odds with game state such as Kilga being meticulous and some other comment about only reading up to page 7 or something. Enough to make me go 'wtf Dan?'.
However upon reflection he has posted an uncharacterful amount of content this game, including one wall post. I also appreciate that he apparently went to check the AUS game and posted what appears to be a measured and unbiased response. Scum!Dan could easily have twisted this to be something that would bear low-hanging-fruit in a later phase.
I have yet to evaluate the actual merit to ALL of his content, but it exists. So I am amending my read from 'scum' to...cough....gasp....vomit....ughrhrgh......I can't say it. I can't say it if it's Dan. Let's say he's null.


Shadoweh - town
Having just lynched scum!Shadoweh in our previous game, and played as scum buddies with Shadoweh in another game, I feel confident being able to read scum!Shadoweh. So far I haven't seen scum!Shadoweh. In particular: scum!Shadoweh is very passive and reactive. This game she has been active and direct. If she's scum, it's a massive improvement. I wouldn't lynch her without a confirm guilty from a flipped cop. For now.

thdgkdms - town
I initially HATED thdkgms Lily business but she's asking pertinent questions and keeping up the pressure on Serene. Her vote has been defended and she has posted regularly. IF she's scum, at least she's posting content and we can catch that. But for now I think the Lily pair is probably town and I'm happy to keep them around for another day phase at least.

SB - scum
Welp.

ooba - scum
I init listed as lol-sk, because I'd confused this replacement with the other one.
I feel that Serene improved their content significantly. I'm disappointed they replaced out.
When last I visited Serene, I pegged them as scum because of their vote switch on to Shadoweh. I have yet to properly re-examine Serene but I'm coloring them as scum until I have had a chance to do so. However, my fire of hatred has put Ooba down to #3 after Kilga, so that's not a priority.

Kilgamayan - scum
Kilga is scum because I categorically disagree with everything he's said on the skim read. In particular I feel strongly that he is outright lying when he posts about me. Earlier I commented that Dan didn't twist a situation into something that could be subverted? I feel like whenever Kilga has mentioned me he has done this subversion thing. I feel deep down in my soul that Kilga is utterly evil and cannot be redeemed in any possible way. I am sure he is Miko, the person who can listen to ten conversations at once, and that has emerged in this game as vote for as many players as you damn well please. But WHO you are voting for is not as important as WHY you are voting. I feel that Kilga doesn't explain his votes, that the WHY is missing, and that for good of our peaceful way of life, we should lynch the scum.
Kilga is my #2 pick after SB and I will be drilling there next.

Rylai Crestfall - scum
Rylai basically doesn't exist except for some awful votes and is a lurkslot. I'd be happy for us to double lynch (player x that is not me) + Rylai. Sadly I wonder if this is more taking out the trash than actual scum hunting.

Katsuki - maybe claimed scum re: SB = Serious Bananas
My scum read at the time was because I thought he had shared a QT with a scum SB and that's how he got Serious Bananas. But that's clearly impossible unless scum are allowed to talk pre-game.
So now I just kind of want to lynch him for claiming unlynchable ITP.
Relentless himself generally didn't ping my radar for being scum.

Malakittens - null
An initial town read because I have a soft spot for Mala since she was my first mod in the newbie game. She read my town wall and liked it and I will be a liar if I didn't say I feel better about her because of it.
However as picked up by somebody else, she hasn't voted yet and...actually I can't remember anything of merit coming from Mala this game.
So I had to devalue the slot to null, at least for now.

Kagami - null
I couldn't remember anything this player did and I still can't.

Cut by Pie. Well I'll post this and read what she has to say.
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Post Post #747 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:02 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

In post 728, Drezi wrote:as for Kagami, if I had to force myself to point at something, it probably would be the way Kagami seems to be clinging onto you 181 660 674 707 (and 50 198 maybe)

Two of the posts you just listed came after you gave your read on Kagami (and one was immediately before it, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume this made it fresh in your mind or something).

Is there a reason you've completely ignored my response to your wall?

In post 733, Drezi wrote:yes, I'm not going to go about and point useless questions at people (which seems to be the pinnacle of towniness here) because of my gut impressions right away, I'll wait and see and post when there's stuff I actually want them to answer to

Also pieguy already commented on this, but I find it hard to believe there's absolutely nothing you've wanted anyone to answer in this game. I think you've asked me maybe two questions over the course of the game (I can only remember one) and outside of that, the only game-relevant questions have been in that Rylai post you made (which seemed less about gaining information, and more about making a point).

Especially since you were/are apparently having difficulty forming reads on people in this game, how did you not have questions?
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Post Post #748 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:07 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 743, pieguyn wrote:(which incidentally makes me pretty sure Drezi is town if Sky_Paladin is scum here)

actually now that I think about it this doesn't actually work; it could be Sky_Paladin declaring a scum read on a partner without doing anything to actually push the wagon. either way, meh
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Post Post #749 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:10 am

Post by Sky_Paladin »

Pie, what suddenly prompted you to read my wall if you hadn't done so already? Because it looks more like you wanted to put your toe in to the water by voting Drezi, got called on it by Shadoweh, and then accused me of doing the same thing.

Ankamius 703 - I like this post. My re-evaluation of Ank may have to come sooner than I thought.

@Kilga

Sky Paladin's recent behavior is not what I would expect of a townie thinking they've just been dayvigged, particularly the completely unsubstantiated list of reads where more people are filed under scum than town.


Exactly what recent behavior is what you would expect of a townie think they've just been dayvigged?

I no longer have time to respond to Pie and after reading it feel no response is necessary and I am going to handwave dismiss it as emotional misrepresentation that aims to mislead by appeal to authority. I'll deal with it later if required.

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