Drawn on Arrival: The Movie: The Game (GAME OVER!)

[Reina]

i guess i'll explain anyway

i don't think it's likely at all est is a real supersaint. the purpose of claiming when she did was solely to threaten people off of her wagon. but because she claimed supersaint it's slightly more likely that she's scum and a supersaint than normal.
it'd be nice if we could point that at another possible scum and if she is a scum supersaint force the kill to go where we want but given that a third of the game seems to think that blatant lying, intentional manipulation, and obvious scum motivation is just because *oh THOSE SILLY newbies* I'm willing to hammer if it'll actually make her dead.

So yeah est I'll unvote once you get to L-1.

[estival]

Also, just to note that Reina did not respond to my points regarding its question about why I scum read it.

Mollie, this is where I'd start:

Seraphim, already discussed as lean town due to the confusion over roles it seemed genuine and no one has spoken to his meta of faking that level of confusion yet.
Heartless, was confusing at first but is paranoid of being buddied which seems like a lean town thing
Honey bee, a reread in ISO seems like its a player who thinks so lean town
Hostile Intent, seems a little mad and doesn't provide cases but seemed to genuinely think Broseiden was being bussed so lean town
Boonskiies, lean town because I felt that way too when entering the game
Psyche, seems worried about the life insurance policy and why would someone take one out on a scum player?

[estival]

Reina, I do not lie or manipulate. I interpret what I see.

As for my role it is mine and it will work out the way I know it will.

[Cheetory6]

If the momentum is there I'll switch my vote. I'd even consider hammering if people are going to be dumb about that.

What is your read on Shaft so far? It seems like you don't think he is scum unless he doesn't speak?

My read on him is biased by his interactions with me. I tend to kneejerk scale back my reads on anyone who pushes me because I get worried about OMGUSing.
I think the connection between him and ika is convincing.
I think his lack of posting is null. Given that he's a main wagon, I find it frustrating that he's not here because it stalls the game.
I only want to lynch you, Shaft or Sera this cycle if that gives you any kind of indication as to where my read on him is.

"Epic death tunnel" seems like it would be something special.

Are you actually curious about this or are you just trying to fuck with me?

Analysis that I'm used to and which is generally the definition of the word, is breaking down a case with evidence from posts, interactions, etc to prove statements. Evidence is required in analysis as well as explanation for it otherwise its merely opinion or even hearsay.

I find digging through ISOs for specific quotes to be a great way to confbias into a scumread.
I play with feeling. I felt very strongly that you were scum earlier and now you're still who I feel is most likely to be scum, but I'm less dead sure about it and it has nothing to do with your claim or Reina. It might be partially due to Mollie's recent thoughts on you resonating slightly with me and because of dumb self meta reasons that I'll elaborate on if people actually give a shit.

[pirate mollie]

i guess i'll explain anyway

i don't think it's likely at all est is a real supersaint. the purpose of claiming when she did was solely to threaten people off of her wagon. but because she claimed supersaint it's slightly more likely that she's scum and a supersaint than normal.
it'd be nice if we could point that at another possible scum and if she is a scum supersaint force the kill to go where we want but given that a third of the game seems to think that blatant lying, intentional manipulation, and obvious scum motivation is just because *oh THOSE SILLY newbies* I'm willing to hammer if it'll actually make her dead.

So yeah est I'll unvote once you get to L-1.

okay so who do you think that wld point to given a scenario where scum!estuvia is a scum supersaint and some1 hammered? do you think that scum wld hammer a scummate and then die a sacrificial death paring down their numbers after losing a scummate on d1? really?

a natural town thought process for a player that you don't understand is "hey he might be telling the truth or playing chicken here with town (if you really thought he was scum) let him be vigged!".

and you aren't looking at this from that perspective at all.

in which you shld be, since you know that there are town players who will not read the game and hammer just because. I personally want them banished into a fiery furnace of hell but unfortunately I have this wc to meet and can't afford to do that.

[Psyche]

For secret role reasons, I should be the hammer today.

I will survive any supersaint business.

[Psyche]

But that's not the reason per se.

[estival]

Cheetory6,

I am always interested in scum reads on me and the explanations. People who don't offer explanations seem too certain for their reads to be town siding since no one knows for sure unless a actual cop who can't be messed with. Therefore, the explanations in threads help people know who to look at after a player flips town and be like, "Wait a minute that was a stupid read."

Yes, I am curious. I mentioned playing with Titus and I've been tunneled by her for days and pages and posts in the hundreds. I wondered if it was something that is from this site meta and also the way she did it as town was different from as scum.

[estival]

Psyche, do you know if you will flip (role + alignment revealed) at hammer? That is do you die and revive or do you only avoid being lynched?

If town is insistent to lynch town they should get some information out of it and you are very well town read by most so how does that even help?

[Psyche]

Something cool will happen that will make things better than they are now!

[estival]

Is that for any lynch or mine only (aka lynch where the regular does not happen)?

[Psyche]

maybe I'm misthinking this
if you're a supersaint, I'm the optimal for a lot of cool reasons. Onr public reason is, "A life insurance policy is on me." But there are more private reasons, too, that overshadow that public one a lot. You or whoever else will die and we'll move on on, but even if it's a mislynch it'll be a mislynch with a consolation prize.

[4nxi3ty]

mollie, has Shaft mentioned any players in this game in your hood? If yes can I get a quick summary of who, and possibly what?

BROseidon, is Seraphim scum with ika, or on a separate scumteam?

Why'd you ask, where were you going with this?

Bro, why are you scumreading flubbernugget?
(I thought his comments about bulge cheet D1 and sera D2 sounded decent, sorta towny vibe)

[pirate mollie]

mollie, has Shaft mentioned any players in this game in your hood? If yes can I get a quick summary of who, and possibly what?

BROseidon, is Seraphim scum with ika, or on a separate scumteam?

Why'd you ask, where were you going with this?

Bro, why are you scumreading flubbernugget?
(I thought his comments about bulge cheet D1 and sera D2 sounded decent, sorta towny vibe)

he hasn't.

are you tooling around with the idea that this is multiball but that there was a surprisingly lack of nks and that is why a bunch pple are running around saying that there are a bunch of protective roles? cos I have been eating those paranoia flakes since 10 am and I am so trying to reign it in and apply a little occams but all i hear is crickets whenever I try to bring it up!

[pirate mollie]

it just seems like some pple have inside knowledge of set up design that i don't have.

the biggest red flag was from anti where he said that there wld be a protective role for each faction when at the time I was looking at only 3 kills and 1 attempted. sk, pgo, vig and then scum. but there seems to be this weird anticipation of multiple deaths when the d2 op does not point to that. but the weird assumption of multiple protective roles kind of does!

okay I need a break.

[4nxi3ty]

nah I'm just curious why Gilga brought up second scumteam and the sera ika connection, trying to trace back the thought process for that comment. Plus whenver I read Gilga's posts it leaves me feeling empty.

I'm just keeping it simple, assuming single ball until there's evidence to the contrary.

I do think there could be higher than average of protectives in the setup. Think of the ineffective vig, pgo, life insurance, mastin/psyche. The trend of roles seems to be those involving death, killing or being killed, protectives to counteract, and redirectors throw into the mix.

[Heartless]

the biggest red flag was from anti where he said that there wld be a protective role for each faction when at the time I was looking at only 3 kills and 1 attempted. sk, pgo, vig and then scum. but there seems to be this weird anticipation of multiple deaths when the d2 op does not point to that. but the weird assumption of multiple protective roles kind of does!

there are so many things wrong with this.....

>i never said there would be a protective for each faction. in fact, sk didn't get a protective. i said spread across all factions
>d2 op has 3 deaths, i have no idea what you're talking about in the rest of the post

i have no idea what you're getting weird with me over b/c what i said was pretty straightforward

[Heartless]

I'm really annoyed right now and in a terrible mood and probably shouldn't be posting, but I am. :\

[Heartless]

I'm sorry, did estival claim supersaint somewhere and I missed it? o.O

[Hostile Intent]

UNVOTE: estival

F'sho, bruh. I'm not voting Shaft tho~

[mastin2]

(1979)

Heartless.
Reina.
You're both beautiful.

Shaft's scum.
estival's probscum.
They're both likely scum, neither is a scumdriven counterwagon to the other, we have a rare scumVscum situation.

Now make up and kiss.

[mastin2]

Ika was an easy lynch handed on a platter. You're the elitist so I'm sure you can do better than me. Except that I'm watching it unfold and the elitism seems more like self aggrandizing.
Anyone's who's ever played with ika knows that he likes to play town and that he doesn't enjoy scum. It's hard to call that a town win when you know the meta.
My method confirms a couple of things in a more high stakes way and confirms bs from non bs.

VOTE: estival.

[Psyche]

but yeah!
lemme hammer!

[Bookitty]

it just seems like some pple have inside knowledge of set up design that i don't have.

Maybe, but I don't have it either.

I got into an argument with BRO early on (the one in which the BRO quote I find so suspicious occurred) about how many protective roles are likely here.

We have a claimed bulletproof (Seraphim), a known inventor of bulletproof vests (Farside), a doctor (BRO) and some sort of protective that was used on Reina last night. That's four. If both Sera and BRO are town and Heartless is truthful town, then there's at a minimum one other protective out there.

How do we know this?

Well, Heartless claims that they got a bulletproof vest from Farside and that the protection afforded by that vest was used last night.

We have Aeronaut kill and The Bulge kill. We have an attempted kill on Heartless. Farside is dead too.

All people who target a PGO are killed. Farside was killed presumably by targeting Heartless. Aeronaut could have been a vig shot. The Bulge could have been Aeronaut's kill. But if Heartless is truthful, then someone targeted them and they did not die. That implies bulletproof scum or scum doctor protecting someone who targeted Heartless.

If Heartless is lying scum who faked receiving a bulletproof vest and scum killed Farside, though, then you still have four claimed protective roles, but that's all we can definitely know we have.

It all depends on what you believe and who you believe.

[The Critic]

Votecount 2.15

estival (7) - Jackel98, Reina, Flubbernugget, Bookitty, PeregrineV, estival, mastin2
shaft (6) - Heartless, BROseidon, Varsoon, Honey bee, 4nxi3ty, Cheetory6
theamatuer (2) - Seraphim, Marquis
Seraphim (1) - Boonskiies
BROseidon (1) - Gilgamesh King Of Heroes
Flubbernugget (1) - Aristophanes


Not Voting (5) - Shaft, Psyche, pirate mollie, theamatuer, Hostile Intent

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