New York 180 (Endgame)

[T S O]

I don't like Marquis' read progression at all - I don't have a particular issue with him jumping around, I often do the same, but his thought process is completely opaque and has been in everything he's done so far.

[T S O]

I would still like to give him a day to figure his shit out because he's a good player. One day. If I'm shot, hold him to that - it's plenty of time for him.

[T S O]

goodmorning reminds me of me, I guess? I'm not completely sure. I have felt mildly uneasy about goodmorning all game, I can't really pinpoint it, but something is a little off there.

[T S O]

Kitz appears to be delighted we're townreading them - newsflash, sweetheart, it doesn't matter if people think you're town if you end up losing.

[T S O]

I have not really read Ozgin's stuff - I think I liked one of his posts once? No real opinion. I'll get one.

[elusive]

I hate the site meta that townreads and therefore rewards people who lurk or play anti-town or talk about how lazy they are more than just once or twice. People who do this routinely should replace out, be lynched or vigged. No exceptions.

*frustrated rant due to.................things and not directed necessarily at any one in particular, just pent up vent*

Effing agree to this so much.

Cheetory-I don't understand why you are so frustrated and upset. I'm sorry but I really don't. This is weird.

Second this. I mean is it the avatar change or are you acting out a bit too much cheetory6? Like what in the world?

[elusive]

21 players, 6 dead all town + 1 dead scum. About 3-5 scum and what about 3p?

That leaves 14 players alive?
Considering ratios, that means we have 1-2 mislynches at most before town and scum are about equal in number?

[FA_Q2]

FA, still waiting on those reads/content/something at all.

I am waiting on this as well FA.

FA, still waiting on those reads/content/something at all.

Reads in a nutshell:
Kitz – town lean. Kitz is trying to lurk though and that is bothering me. Her reaoning for this is dumb IMHO – town does not need to lurk to get suspicion off them, that is a scum motivation. Not getting scum from other actions though.

You have her as a town read but then you sort of list off all the things she's done that's scummy... What has she done that's townie to you?

I listed off reasons that my town read is not strong. Ingeneral, I get a town feel about kits - I just do not like some of the more recent trends that slot is doing. It makes me question my town read.

dragonspawn – been scum reading dragon for a while. Not liking the subdued way he is playing. One thing is for sure, dragon has NOT added anything that resembles scum hunting for a very long time. The one case that I can remember is against GM as ‘gloating.’

I agree with this posting. I don't get the resistance.

Flubber – already laid case out and it is only getting worse. Looks very scummy.

Flubber = Marquis, right?

Yes, swapped names from another game.

Aeronaut – leaning scum in general because areo has been posting mostly fluff and avoiding any real scum hunting. At times I forget that he is even in the game.

I'll admit I've been a bit absent the last few days, so I guess there's that. Can you link what you believe to be "fluff posting"? I feel like you never felt the need to bring this up in the past, so it's interesting to me.

Your last several posts before this one. You were not so fluffy earlier in the game which is one reason that I had not scum read you until this point. I find that is a general scummy behavior though - get people to think you are townish and then lay low until that play wears thin. It happens a lot I believe because scum feels secure and then does not post as often. I may have limited experience but players that do not lurk and then suddenly lurk in a cycle tend to make me suspicious.

Ozgin – Town lean/null. Hard to read because his posts seem quite controlled.

I wouldn't say they're that controlled at all, tbh, or at least not lately.

Really.

The general tone I get from Oz is devoid of emotion - controlled. Maybe it is that comforting avatar

[dragonspawn]

I'm going to say exactly what I said in Completely Ridiculous: one scum lynch. That's all we need. The game will fall open if we get it.

I choked in Completely Ridiculous like fuck and I'd dearly love to redeem myself for that fuck-up.

so where do we start for that one lynch?

[Ozgin]

21 players, 6 dead all town + 1 dead scum. About 3-5 scum and what about 3p?

That leaves 14 players alive?
Considering ratios, that means we have 1-2 mislynches at most before town and scum are about equal in number?

If we assume the worst (4 scum alive and 1 Third Party), and we assume 2 town die every night where we have a mislynch, and we have 14 left alive:

14
-2(1st Mislynch)
---
12
-2(2nd Mislynch)
---
10
-2(3rd)
---
8
-2(4th)
---
6 <--- Close enough to 5, but if there are only 4 scum total and one is dead with a 3rd party..
-2(5th)
--
4<--- Here is where we'd be fucked.


In other words, we actually have up to 4 or 5 if only 2 town die each night. But that's unrealistic, because it's more like 3 people die each night, but the 3rd Party doesn't know who the scum are, nor the town, so then..

4 scum alive / 14 players alive
1 3rd Party alive / 14 players alive
9 townies alive / 14 players alive

Assume the chance of a 3rd Party (SK) killing a scum/town is 50-50.
Assume the chance of scum killing town at night is 90%, the SK being the other 10%.
Assume the chance of the vigilante (assuming one exists) killing town/scum/SK is 45/45/10 percents, respectively

If we mislynch tonight, the possible outcomes of the night are (since orders nor repeats don't matter):

Town, Town, Town

Town, Town, Scum

Town, Town, SK

Town, Scum, Scum

Town, Scum, SK

Scum, Scum, SK

If I color code them in different shades to correspond with this legend, then we can see our odds of how our night will play (bolded for clarity):

Most Likely

2nd Most Likely

3rd Most Likely

3rd Least Likely

2nd Least Likely

Least Likely

What does this boil down to? Simply put, in my opinion:

Another mislynch at this phase would be devastating, and we can't afford one. Period.

PEdit:

The general tone I get from Oz is devoid of emotion - controlled. Maybe it is that comforting avatar

I don't feel like I'm devoid of emotion, but I'm trying really hard to keep my control and composure because when I freak out in games I always get mislynched, the way I'd describe my feelings for this game would be desperate. I feel like every lynch we make from here on out needs to be peer-fuckin'-reviewed by to-notch scientists to make sure our logic is sound, because at our rate, we're just fucking ourselves over.

And yes, my Avatar helps me keep my cool because Raymond Reddington is cooler than a cucumber .

[dragonspawn]

Oz, are you calculating 1 nk and the mislynch or 2 nk and the mislynch?

I dont think your calculations are correct but I'll look over it again.

[Aeronaut]

I listed off reasons that my town read is not strong. Ingeneral, I get a town feel about kits - I just do not like some of the more recent trends that slot is doing. It makes me question my town read.

Is there anything specific or is it just her tone? I was townreading her for awhile, but there's a few things I've been wondering about.

Aeronaut – leaning scum in general because areo has been posting mostly fluff and avoiding any real scum hunting. At times I forget that he is even in the game.

I'll admit I've been a bit absent the last few days, so I guess there's that. Can you link what you believe to be "fluff posting"? I feel like you never felt the need to bring this up in the past, so it's interesting to me.

Your last several posts before this one. You were not so fluffy earlier in the game which is one reason that I had not scum read you until this point. I find that is a general scummy behavior though - get people to think you are townish and then lay low until that play wears thin. It happens a lot I believe because scum feels secure and then does not post as often. I may have limited experience but players that do not lurk and then suddenly lurk in a cycle tend to make me suspicious.

That's fair. If it makes you feel better, my absence was universal. Define lurking in a cycle?

[FA_Q2]

I listed off reasons that my town read is not strong. Ingeneral, I get a town feel about kits - I just do not like some of the more recent trends that slot is doing. It makes me question my town read.

Is there anything specific or is it just her tone? I was townreading her for awhile, but there's a few things I've been wondering about.

Aeronaut – leaning scum in general because areo has been posting mostly fluff and avoiding any real scum hunting. At times I forget that he is even in the game.

I'll admit I've been a bit absent the last few days, so I guess there's that. Can you link what you believe to be "fluff posting"? I feel like you never felt the need to bring this up in the past, so it's interesting to me.

Your last several posts before this one. You were not so fluffy earlier in the game which is one reason that I had not scum read you until this point. I find that is a general scummy behavior though - get people to think you are townish and then lay low until that play wears thin. It happens a lot I believe because scum feels secure and then does not post as often. I may have limited experience but players that do not lurk and then suddenly lurk in a cycle tend to make me suspicious.

That's fair. If it makes you feel better, my absence was universal. Define lurking in a cycle?

active players start to town read. Lurk. Someone starts building a case then back to active again.

[Ozgin]

Oz, are you calculating 1 nk and the mislynch or 2 nk and the mislynch?

I dont think your calculations are correct but I'll look over it again.

I'm calculating 3 NK's tonight, assuming we have a vigilante, a Serial Killer, and a Scum Team still in play, that's the 3 Kills of Scum/Town/Sk in each row.

That's based on the event of a mislynch today, assuming we kill neither scum nor the SK.

P-EDIT
@Aero and @FA: I don't get how either of you are townreading Kitz, I looked into her and I thought we was just about pure null because she's lurking pretty hard and she simply doesn't care about this game that much (it seems), so I'm finding it difficult to read her at all, let alone town read her.

[Aeronaut]

Yea. Idk there.

Kitz, who's your top scumread at the moment?

[Kitz]

Was casually checking before going to sleep.

Kitz, who's your top scumread at the moment?

Now?
The magical answer and the lucky winner : Tie between Aeronaut and Ozgin.

[Aeronaut]

Ok... so why not vote for one us

[SilverWolf]

Ozgin, I think your calculations might be off, not that I'm that good with math:

1st night there were 3 kill attempts and 2 kills including pisskop/scum-there has to be either a vig or SK or other mafia faction for pisskop to be killed, there also has to be another faction for the 2nd kill attempt. I'm going to assume with a vig, that they are not every night or they are X-shot if there is one. The thing that confused me is there has only been one NK per night the past 2 night so somehow, NK's are being blocked-they are either hitting a BP SK or a BP townie or a doc protect if we actually still have one of those.

So, let's just assume there is 2 kill possible a night and let's just assume 5 scum total including Pisskop. Now, if there was an SK or second faction the teams would be larger. There is no way there would be a 6 person scumteam in a game this size. If SK or multiball, we can go with 3 and 3. If SK and one team. We can say 5 and 1. I am going to assume with the lack of kills there is one team and a 3P for now. 4 scum left plus 3P/SK.

So we have 14 alive right now, worse case:

We mislynch and there are 2 kills and we are just crap down on our luck and town dies-11 alive tomorrow, 6 town, 4 scum, 1 3P

We mislynch again, good lord let's hope we don't but say we do, 2 kills and we have the worst luck ever and town dies, 8 alive-3 town, 4 scum, 1 3P-we are toast.

This all assumes the worst happens and we actually have an SK and multiball-just to be safe here, I'm assuming the worst.

We can mislynch once in the worst case scenario.

Check my math cuz I screw that up more often than not.

[Ozgin]

Ozgin, I think your calculations might be off, not that I'm that good with math:

1st night there were 3 kill attempts and 2 kills including pisskop/scum-there has to be either a vig or SK or other mafia faction for pisskop to be killed, there also has to be another faction for the 2nd kill attempt. I'm going to assume with a vig, that they are not every night or they are X-shot if there is one. The thing that confused me is there has only been one NK per night the past 2 night so somehow, NK's are being blocked-they are either hitting a BP SK or a BP townie or a doc protect if we actually still have one of those.

So, let's just assume there is 2 kill possible a night and let's just assume 5 scum total including Pisskop. Now, if there was an SK or second faction the teams would be larger. There is no way there would be a 6 person scumteam in a game this size. If SK or multiball, we can go with 3 and 3. If SK and one team. We can say 5 and 1. I am going to assume with the lack of kills there is one team and a 3P for now. 4 scum left plus 3P/SK.

So we have 14 alive right now, worse case:

We mislynch and there are 2 kills and we are just crap down on our luck and town dies-11 alive tomorrow, 6 town, 4 scum, 1 3P

We mislynch again, good lord let's hope we don't but say we do, 2 kills and we have the worst luck ever and town dies, 8 alive-3 town, 4 scum, 1 3P-we are toast.

This all assumes the worst happens and we actually have an SK and multiball-just to be safe here, I'm assuming the worst.

We can mislynch once in the worst case scenario.

Check my math cuz I screw that up more often than not.

Well I was just considering tonight's possible NKs, and since we've had so few NKs recently, I figured if there would be a night with a lot of deaths it would be tonight.

Isn't it still possible that we have a vig, SK, and a scum team?

[SilverWolf]

We could have a vig, SK and scum team but then there'd only be one scumteam.

I am wondering how often an vig and a SK appear in a game together though?

[FA_Q2]

meh - setup speculation.

We don't know what there is just that there is the possibility of 3 kills per night but that at least one of those is X-shot or non-consecutive. I would go with the x-shot tbh but really it does not matter because there is no way to confirm anything at this time and that type of conjecture is really not going to help.

[FA_Q2]

@wolf
With that in mind, Oz dissertation on this is starting to really remind me of our first game with titus(I think it was her) and all those pretty charts he posted for us on the vote totals. All those charts that gave her a confirmed town all the way up until she won with her scum team...

[goodmorning]

I have an idea. Everyone should bring up their last readslist in a quote, then explain what's changed and why.

Other than that, we should try not talking about useless things like VCA or potential game fuck-uppedness.

[T S O]

I'm going to say exactly what I said in Completely Ridiculous: one scum lynch. That's all we need. The game will fall open if we get it.

I choked in Completely Ridiculous like fuck and I'd dearly love to redeem myself for that fuck-up.

so where do we start for that one lynch?

FA_Q2.

[T S O]

I like the names on the FA wagon a lot more than those on the Marquis wagon.

FA_Q2 -is- being lynched today, and there's towncred available - the only question is whether scum have the guts to bus him or not.