Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm beginning to get paranoid about Derangement and GC

My best guess is Derangement and CDB. They're leaving you alive because your reads are off.

[Green Crayons]

Reread prawn's and CDB's ISOs.

I'm doubling down on my onion, TTH, CDB lynch pool.

I want CDB's updated opinion on the game.

[Untrod Tripod]

I'm beginning to get paranoid about Derangement and GC

My best guess is Derangement and CDB. They're leaving you alive because your reads are off.

entirely possible

[Green Crayons]

Ya I agree, the Equinox NK is strange. He was on the LF wagon and he wasn't a particularly helpful townie End of D1 and all of D2. I think a scum-case could have been made on him.

Was someone freaked out that Equinox would suddenly start posting and figure out the game? Who has history with Equinox? Who is most scared of him?

I thought Equinox was solidly town. He was my townread surrogate for my position on onion.

FWIW, I played with Equinox in one other game where he died N1, and I thought his play here matched that game pretty spot on. That probably helped establish my town read of him.

[ChannelDelibird]

Good Morning. I'll post when I'm in less of a foul mood.

[Derangement]

I did not see this one coming.

While I may have had a townread on Equinox in early day 1, it's definitely not something that stayed that way as day 2 progressed.
I'd have thought the obvious targets were Tripod or myself, and seeing us both alive is making me want to do some re-reading.

A quick check tells me that:

• Tripod and I scumread TTH, with Equinox being not against lynching her either.
  
  
  I don't think this particular read influenced the NK much, if at all.
  
  
  
• Tripod scumread Onion, I townread Onion, Equinox seemed to be actively looking into him.
  
  
  Killing me would have helped scum if Onion were town;
  Killing UT would have helped scum if Onion were scum.
  Killing equinox
  might
  have helped scum, depending on whether they thought his suspicions would lead him in the right direction, but I find this an odd way to go about it.
  
  If Onion is scum, it makes UT's survival less desirable to scum. Him being alive looks weird.
  If Onion is town, it makes my survival less desirable to scum. Me being alive looks weird.
  
  
  
• I scumread Crayons, Tripod agreed with Crayons (and was weirded out by it).
  
  
  If Crayons is scum, it makes my survival questionable.
  If Crayons is town, then UT's survival is questionable (but not as questionable?)

NK analysis based on people's reads at the time points to a possible UT/Onion scumteam, or a Derangement/Crayons one.
I personally find the former to be rather unlikely, and don't agree with the latter.

---

Looking at it from the other way:

@Crayons:
You say you had a townread on Equinox.
What made you think of him that way?
Did I miss something in his late game?

@Onion:
Could you please clarify what you had in mind, when you wrote:

try not to lynch equinox while i'm gone.

[onion]

try not to lynch equinox was a joke related to how we enjoy wildly swinging the lynch around in the last few hours, and ending up lynching someone we weren't planning to only a few hours before. i just picked the least likely to be lynched player.

while i found the GIF lynch very strange, this one made more sense, because Equinox was cool. Derangement is also cool, which makes me wonder why he isn't dead also. its a bit suspicious. and derangement's wondering about why both he and tripod are alive might make more sense if we didn't assume derangement must be town. just saying.

the llama flip provides us with good information, which i really should compile some time soon, so i'll post that when i get to it.

we probably shouldn't lynch tripod. and green crayons is cool too. i guess i should work on some town reads other than those, but that'll have to wait until after the llamaflipinfo. so i'll get right on that. yeah. maybe tomorrow. i don't work tomorrow.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Three Vote Count #1

~ No Votes ~

With

7

alive it takes

4

lynch, and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

April 8, 2015 at 6:35 AM PST

.

Not Voting - 7 - ChannelDelibird, Derangement, Green Crayons, onion, prawneater, TellTaleHeart, Untrod Tripod

Countdown

: (expired on 2015-04-08 06:35:00)

[Green Crayons]

@Derangement:

@Crayons:
You say you had a townread on Equinox.
What made you think of him that way?
Did I miss something in his late game?

FWIW, I played with Equinox in one other game where he died N1, and I thought his play here matched that game pretty spot on. That probably helped establish my town read of him.

----

COMEDIC RECORD SCRATCH

----

lol

I was going to link the game that I was thinking of, and be like "ugh just read this, his play is identical" but I have discovered that the game I was thinking of did not include Equinox at all, but instead Cheetory6.

I thought it was Equinox, not Cheetory, who was in Open 581: Making Friends and Enemies! with me.

[Green Crayons]

Uh, regardless of that brainfart, I still think my read of Equinox was solid (and I'm not just saying this because we have hindsight).

Equinox was being thoughtful and thorough in his reads - which is why I thought he was Cheetory-town back in Open 581, as he mimicked Cheetory's play in that game. They felt genuine, and I could follow his thought process pretty clearly, so I felt like he was being pretty open.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: CDB

Consider yourself motivated.

[Green Crayons]

Actually.

UNVOTE: CDB
VOTE: TTH

[onion]

so, Tripod and Llama had bouts early on, but that's because tripod is tripod, thus null. Llama's track was accurate, and Tripod really didn't go anywhere N1. that's townish.

Llama and Prawn had bouts, and Prawn isn't Tripod, so this is scumish.

we still have a not both Prawn and sns.

Llama suspected TTH+Prawn, and we should at least have a passing interest in his suspicious, being confirmed town and all.

GIF also voted for TTH. we have enough confirmed townies for vote analysis to maybe be useful. i'll do that.

[TellTaleHeart]

Actually.

UNVOTE: CDB
VOTE: TTH

Disappointing.

GIF also voted for TTH. we have enough confirmed townies for vote analysis to maybe be useful. i'll do that.

How does the fact it was a random vote play into your analysis? o_O

[Green Crayons]

Disappointing.

We'll see.

I forgot to turn off my reaction-to-pressure gauge. It's consistently broken in an inconsistent manner.

[Derangement]

VOTE: CDB

Consider yourself motivated.

Actually.

UNVOTE: CDB
VOTE: TTH

I've been trying to figure out why this feels

odd

for a while now, and kept drawing a blank.

I may not want to vote CDB right now, but I very much do want to hear from the slot as soon as possible, either in the form of CDB himself, or a replacement, so I can get where Crayons was coming from.

And I just realised that the CDB vote is a red herring:
What's pinging my weirdometer is his blank vote for TTH.

Crayons' entrance made me feel like Llama and Onion were his top two scumreads, with TTH somewhat less so.
He seemed to be pushing Onion with some conviction, and, without an explanation for today's vote, it feels like it could be motivated by how easy lynching her might be.

If it weren't for the super-weird NK making me paranoid, I'd have jumped on this wagon immediately.
As it stands, I'd like to ask Crayons' to elaborate on TTH, and how his read on her compared to onion changed since day 2, please.

Likewise, would it be okay if I asked for your opinion on Crayons, TTH?
Thanks!

[Green Crayons]

@onion:

Llama and Prawn had bouts, and Prawn isn't Tripod, so this is scumish.

Llama suspected TTH+Prawn, and we should at least have a passing interest in his suspicious, being confirmed town and all.

These are the same points w/r/t prawn.

Confirmed town arguing with <unconfirmed alignment player> is not alignment indicative as to the unconfirmed player.

Actually read the Llama/prawn debate and tell me you don't come out agreeing with prawn.

[Green Crayons]

@Derangement:

I'm going to answer your questions about reads with quotes because the answers are already ITT.

1.

VOTE: CDB

Consider yourself motivated.

Actually.

UNVOTE: CDB
VOTE: TTH

I've been trying to figure out why this feels

odd

for a while now, and kept drawing a blank.

So you're searching for a reason to find me scummy, couldn't do it on your own, and are now opening it up to the thread to come up with a "good enough" justification for you to jump onto?

2.

Crayons' entrance made me feel like Llama and Onion were his top two scumreads, with TTH somewhat less so.
He seemed to be pushing Onion with some conviction, and, without an explanation for today's vote, it feels like it could be motivated by how easy lynching her might be.

That is, just that so many folks from across my suspicions spectrum are saying that onion isn't scum suggests that I may be the one with the wrong perspective on his play.

3.

As it stands, I'd like to ask Crayons' to elaborate on TTH, and how his read on her compared to onion changed since day 2, please.

I guess I should do my TTH case, just to put it out there and because ~*~ ego-stroke ~*~, but I really don't have the time and energy for the real deal tonight or, likely, tomorrow.

It's basically I agree with CDB's early suspicions of TTH's play, and then her complete detachment from the game is not the TTH-town I know and love, and therefore I think it might be TTH-scum not wanting to play because it isn't nearly as fun as being town.

I think I might help with that, actually, if nothing changes with her next post.

Nothing's going to change. Go ahead.

I also have no intention of claiming.

I thought there was another post, but this is what is giving me pause on my TTH read.

TTH-scum is petulant and stubborn? Like, that's a bad scum strategy. Has that ever worked?

I forgot to turn off my reaction-to-pressure gauge. It's consistently broken in an inconsistent manner.

[prawneater]

so, Tripod and Llama had bouts early on, but that's because tripod is tripod, thus null. Llama's track was accurate, and Tripod really didn't go anywhere N1. that's townish.

Llama and Prawn had bouts, and Prawn isn't Tripod, so this is scumish.

we still have a not both Prawn and sns.

Llama suspected TTH+Prawn, and we should at least have a passing interest in his suspicious, being confirmed town and all.

GIF also voted for TTH. we have enough confirmed townies for vote analysis to maybe be useful. i'll do that.

This isn't good logic. Town fight amongst each other all the time.

The reason Tripod is prob town is the tracking, not his interactions with Llama.

I don't know if GIF was even reading the game. That said, I could sheep his ghost vote on TTH.

[prawneater]

Onion Case

1. Over-Posting.

By posting way too many (convoluted, repetitive) words, onion has become invisible to half+ of the thread.

Why it's alignment indicative:

He's getting a free pass by having folks glaze over his posts, and therefore his suspicious play isn't getting scrutiny. I think it traces back to Post 131, which, as others noted at the time, is basically THINGS HAPPENED. After getting criticized on failing to put out too little substantive input, onion now churns out geyers of words about his thoughts and feelings about the game. Moreover, those thoughts are convoluted, abstract, or logic-symbol based. It's an informational overload that most people aren't reading

because it actively turns people away

. It's also not really useful, it's mostly just THOUGHTS ABOUT THINGS.

Examples:

Post 175, Post 188, Post 217, Post 275, Post 302, Post 310, Post 326, Post 372, Post 456, Post 536, Post 720.

2. Using "post-flip associative tells" to justify votes.

onion continually puts forth a "if we lynch X, we'll get info about Y regardless of X's alignment!" justification behind his votes.

Why it's alignment indicative:

For basically every player, their post-flip reveal will help deduce associative tells for other players with varying degrees of probative value. And this reason is, in and of itself, not based on the lynchee's alignment. Thus, this is an unobtrusive/universal filler excuse to lynch someone, and onion uses it excessively. Emphasizing such a basis to push a vote is what scum would do, because it's easy.

Examples:

Post 156, Post 275, Post 295, Post 302, Post 372, Post 383, Post 396, Post 549, Post 600, Post 711.

3. Baiting UT.

onion continually baits UT with snide remarks about UT's (in)ability to competently play.

Why it's alignment indicative:

It makes another player go apeshit, which draws negative attention to that other player. There's a difference between finding another player's play/style anti-town or whatever, but onion's digs really look like he's actively trying to get UT to have a meltdown.

Examples:

Post 152, Post 156, Post 175, Post 217, Post 275, Post 383, Post 396, Post 482, Post 744.

4. Appears to have knowledge about Llama's alignment.

Post 183 caught my eye during my read through, because I thought onion was saying that CDB being on Llama's wagon, pre-Llama flip, was suspicious. This looked like onion had tipped his hand about knowing Llama's (town) alignment. Rereading, though, I see that in Post 180, onion is saying that all slots on any bandwagon (except first and hammer) are suspicious.

Why it's alignment indicative:

I still think this points to a scum perspective, and knowledge about Llama's alignment. I'm not convinced this universal aspect of the theory in Post 180 really allays my suspicions about onion preemptively suspecting the folks on Llama's bandwagon. Assuming for the sake of argument that all slots on a town bandwagon are scummy, per onion's theory, that wouldn't hold true for slots on a scum bandwagon. That is, onion has taken a questionable principle that applies to reviewing

town bandwagons

, and has preemptively applied it to Llama's bandwagon while also still suspecting Llama.

5. Rolefishing.

I agree with UT. Post 430 looks like rolefishing, not some failed attempt at a reaction test like TTH theorizes. Post 445 and Post 450 confirm this suspicion.

Why it's alignment indicative:

role. fishing.

Do you guys like GC's case on Onion? I find that I don't agree with many of the points. Last game I played with GC, he was scum and had to make cases out of necessity. And at least one of them was really contrived. I might have that same feeling again with the Onion case.

I don't think points 1 and 3 are scum-indicative.
2 is a maybe for me. The posts GC linked are some of Onion's classic logic walls, but I get town vibes when I read those.
4 might be a forced point on GC's part. I think I follow (but don't agree with) Onion's logic that any D1 wagon that forms quickly has scum on it and there are certain slots that are scummier than others. To call it a scum-slip is reaching maybe?
5 I don't like Onion's play either, but I wouldn't paint it as scum trying to role-fish. I think it's simply too dumb of a play for scum and I can picture town-Onion thinking "oh this play is clever and will help town".

[Derangement]

@Derangement:

I'm going to answer your questions about reads with quotes because the answers are already ITT.

1.

VOTE: CDB

Consider yourself motivated.

Actually.

UNVOTE: CDB
VOTE: TTH

I've been trying to figure out why this feels

odd

for a while now, and kept drawing a blank.

So you're searching for a reason to find me scummy, couldn't do it on your own, and are now opening it up to the thread to come up with a "good enough" justification for you to jump onto?

Quite the opposite, actually.

You'll notice I wrote that in the

past

.
Your votes were looking strange to me, and I didn't voice it aloud until I figured out why they were bothering me, because I didn't want to be influenced, and possibly misled, by others.

I find your choice of interpretation is interesting.

That said, thanks for answering
Even being entirely made of quotes, it still helps explain things, and tells us that there are no new reasons aside from those.

[Derangement]

Do you guys like GC's case on Onion? I find that I don't agree with many of the points. Last game I played with GC, he was scum and had to make cases out of necessity. And at least one of them was really contrived. I might have that same feeling again with the Onion case.

I don't think points 1 and 3 are scum-indicative.
2 is a maybe for me. The posts GC linked are some of Onion's classic logic walls, but I get town vibes when I read those.
4 might be a forced point on GC's part. I think I follow (but don't agree with) Onion's logic that any D1 wagon that forms quickly has scum on it and there are certain slots that are scummier than others. To call it a scum-slip is reaching maybe?
5 I don't like Onion's play either, but I wouldn't paint it as scum trying to role-fish. I think it's simply too dumb of a play for scum and I can picture town-Onion thinking "oh this play is clever and will help town".

I couldn't spot any outright falsehood or misrep.
What makes me not agree with the conclusion Crayons had about Onion's alignment is how a great many of those reasons are circumstancial, or open to different interpretations.

Sure, if you already think onion is scum, then those explanations work.
But I think a better label would have been

"why this might be alignment indicative"

, since I can also think of non-scum reasons for what Onion did.

The one point GC raised that I really can't agree with was 4, as I pointed out day 2.
It feels like reaching, and in hindsight can be turned around just as well, to say

GC

knew Llama was town, and was building a case on onion based on that, even while llama was one of his scumreads.
Does that sound more convincing when

I

say it?

[onion]

blah busy busy, vote analysis got half done yesterday, i'll fisnish to tonight. the middle-seats-are-scummy system cares not for the random voting stage and treats them just like any other vote. this is because scum don't actually make random votes, and that's who we're trying to catch.

[onion]

Vote analysis (as of dawn of day 3)

-=Was in a suspicious middle seat this many times=-
9 - Tripod
6 - Derangement
5 - GC
4 - onion
4 - prawn
3 - TTH
2 - CBD

-=Placed a vote on NJAC, GIF, Llama or Equinox this many times=-
6 - TTH
5 - Tripod
4 - onion
4 - prawn
3 - Derangement
3 - GC
2 - CBD

-=Tipping points=-
Day 1, the tipping point is either 3rd or 4th vote. i'll list both.

D1 Page-1-Llamawagon, 3rd was Equinox(017), 4th was Prawn(025).
D1 Wagon-of-Onions, 3rd was CBD(142), 4th was Derangement(154).
D1 Abandoned-Marquis-Wagon, 3rd was Derangement(262), 4th was Tripod(309).
D1 Prawn-o-Wagon, 3rd was Tripod(388), 4th was Derangement(425).
D1 Revenge-of-the-Wagon-of-Onions, 3rd was Equinox(466), 4th was GC(473).
D1 Tracker-Revealing-Llamawagon, 3rd was me(566), 4th was CBD(567), then TTH moved his vote to NJAC(603) and Prawn put a 4th on llama(615).
D1 NJAC-Lynch-Wagon, 3rd was Derangement(604), 4th was me(636).
D2 Llamahate-Wagon, 3rd vote is Prawn(866).

-=Town Tippers=-
3 - Prawn
2 - Derangement +1 if you count me as town.
2 - onion
1 - CBD +1 if you count me as town.
1 - Tripod
0 - GC +1 if you count me as town.
0 - TTH

-=-

Me, Tripod, Prawn and Derangement show up in the top half of those lists. Tripod shows because he's tripod and i'm not scum, so Prawn and Derangement are the mathematically scummy ones? or something like that.

[onion]

i'll dig up what the last reads from each confirmed townie were too. that might be useful.

NJAC in his one useful post fingered Llama and TTH.

GIF had to go way back (242) to find this, but he lists Prawn, NJAC and GC.

Llama was obvious, which is nice at least TTH + Prawn, Those are your two.

Equinox in 872 fingers Llama and TTH.

so 3 out of 4 doctors recommend TTH. that's something to think about. oh and also the good ol' Cogito List Case! Where's that?!

-=Cogito List=- (017)
ChannelDelibird
Equinox (town)
GuyInFreezer (town)
LlamaFluff (town)
Untrod Tripod

That's a point against CBD right there.