White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.18

Aeronaut (3) - Zachrulez, Regfan, Oversoul
Cheery Dog (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamarble
Psyche (2) - Antihero, theelkspeaks
ika (1) - Cheery Dog
Llamarble (1) - Ankamius
Oversoul (1) - BlueBloodedToffee
theelkspeaks (1) - Aeronaut

Not Voting (2) - ika, Psyche

With 13 alive, it will take 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, April 13, 2015, at 9:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-04-13 21:00:00).

[Llamarble]

Ffery is going to check out the BBT aggressive scum thing - I don't see it but I haven't looked at any meta so I'll look into it if Ffery says it's plausible. She believes Oversoul used town tokens.
I will say that I'm hoping for more from Regfan. Regfan can play a solid scumgame (he doesn't wear his <3 on his sleeve as town quite as much as I do). The Elk push worries me a little, especially if Aero turns up town.
Fortunately the obstacles to Ank + Aero + Cheery continue to weaken. I really don't get TTH town (will try again I guess) but everyone seems to be a staunch believer and Oversoul has started to do some work, so it's getting harder to come up with alternative scumteams.

I dunno where the idea that I would take a scum token came from; I really strongly prefer town - Empire and I hydraed and got scum once and our chats sounded like a support group.
I've had an okay scum winrate but my townplay is what I pride myself on. As scum I enjoy winning and playing the mechanics / finding the path to victory; as town I get all those (with much more puzzle-solving) but posting is something I can't stop doing instead of a brutally unpleasant grind.

[Llamarble]

Meh. TTH had reads and presence but scum can produce "this doesn't fit" easily enough. I get why CES 128 would annoy him but how does it look scummy? Overall I don't see a lot secondary towntells or a high level of engagement with the game.
All AH has done is say "I wouldn't replace into a scum slot" which has various problems and read TTH's ISO / comment on his opinions.

Would really appreciate somebody who has TTH / AH in their upper tier of towniness making sense of that for me.

[Llamarble]

That goes for ika (still hasn't placed a vote) too actually. I don't see why those players are strong townreads for people. Not actively scummy? OK, I buy that. But I see any 'I am super impressed if you wrote this as scum' from them.

[Oversoul]

Hmm, I should have made that clearer. I was curious why you only focused on yourself and Aeronaut for the scum suspicions in my catchup. Does that mean you agree with my content about Ank? You mentioned something about agreeing with my comment on his read's but I don't know if that means you think he is scum or not. The last you've mentioned of him you sounded uncertain about your own thoughts

[Oversoul]

I dunno where the idea that I would take a scum token came from; I really strongly prefer town - Empire and I hydraed and got scum once and our chats sounded like a support group.
I've had an okay scum winrate but my townplay is what I pride myself on. As scum I enjoy winning and playing the mechanics / finding the path to victory; as town I get all those (with much more puzzle-solving) but posting is something I can't stop doing instead of a brutally unpleasant grind.

Well, you chose to be in TM2012 White Flag as scum. I assumed you were also able to choose which game you wanted in the first TM, where you were also scum in White Flag. I just assumed that you enjoyed playing scum from that.

LOL at the support group thing.

Llama, just look at TTH's iso. Post 81 is a unique post in that the content of her suspicions were from things that were not really mentioned already. That shows original thought. That looks more townie than scum. Scum use rehashed shit all the time because they are only concerned with getting by, not actually scumhunting. She also pointed out the Elk stuff before Reg did.

By the end of her time here, she had begun to narrow her focus on Psyche and I liked her interaction with him because she wasn't trying to needlessly talk about everything, she wasn't trying to engage with everyone, she was pointing out things that she thought was scummy and appropriately acting on those suspicions.

Granted, I don't know who TTH is, or how she plays, but on the face of it I don't think she looks scummy. Are you disagreeing with the level of town that I gave TTH or that I town read her at all?

I do think that there is some fishy shit going on with the switch between her and Antihero, but I'll let that go for now.

367 - Anti is town. TTH was my strongest town-read and I really, really, really don't see Anti replacing into a scum slot. However, his lurking is bothering me so it would be great if he could do something.

it's kinda beyond my control (rl stuff), but it'll pass soon

quick 'n dirty while i'm here:
looks like tth's scumreads were psyche, ika, and ces. psyche read i have no issue with. ika isn't in his usual scum lurkaderp mode so i may have an issue w/ that read. not sure haven't read his posts. ces' iso is snoozeworthy.

additionally, zack making a big deal about the swap is pretty smokescreen-y considering he's not really attempting to grasp our team dynamic or take our meta into consideration and just screaming "OMG THEREZ SWAPZ SCUMZMMMZMMZMZMZORZ" even if you did buy into tth being scum, there wasn't a need for a swap and hammering on that point repeatedly w/o actually trying to prove scum intent is actually kind of scummy.

i think bbt and llama are p townish. it looks like aero is a hot topic so i'll be looking into that too.

I do think this is a poor post as there is no reason Anti has to follow TTH's reads, unless Antihero is planning on being a conduit for TTH to post in this game. The meta comment about Anti switching into a scum role I really have no way to refute. I don't know if Anti likes town or hates scum. The way he said it sounded town. Then again, I am a sucker for emotion. But I will remind that this is

Team

Mafia and certain performances may be for an overall strategic value.

Agree on the ika read. Don't know how people can get that opinion from his posts. They never seem to be particularly alignment indicative to me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oversoul, I don't see ABR taking the time to actively coach anyone.

For the record, in the last two team mafias, Llamarble has been scum in the White Flag game. Still not entirely sure this is not some sort of big ruse but Tammy says that Llamarble does prefer town and that sort of thing and I am willing to trust him on that.

We did also lynch him Day 2 in the second year. That's definitely worth noting.

I'm really happy with my vote and people should be voting Oversoul now.

Does Oversoul's response (#441) change your mind in that regard?

That goes for ika (still hasn't placed a vote) too actually. I don't see why those players are strong townreads for people. Not actively scummy? OK, I buy that. But I see any 'I am super impressed if you wrote this as scum' from them.

I think it's mostly that people expect ikascum to be more obvious and also partly people giving ika credit for some of GIF's opinions. I don't think he looks amazing but if ika is scum, he'll probably get caught at some point.

[Oversoul]

I get why CES 128 would annoy him but how does it look scummy?

Also, it isn't like TTH is dead. She is just playing in another game and Anti can always ask her to answer our questions.

[Oversoul]

Oversoul, I don't see ABR taking the time to actively coach anyone.

As in ABR doesn't have the time to do it, or ABR wouldn't want to do it?

[Llamarble]

Hey, that game was closer than it looked - I had the votes I needed D2 until Zach changed when I was hoping he wouldn't. A mislynch D2 and killing another threat and who knows how that game turns out.

I think I could fake TTH 81 if I were scum but I guess I'll listen to the consensus for now (it would be Really Nice if the team did turn out to be Cheery/Ank/Aero).
I should review Oversoul's stuff too but it's a quality burst of work so unless I missed a particularly weak aspect it probably won't hurt him.
Meanwhile Cheery is doing some weird stuff but I wouldn't call it drastically town and Ank / Aero just seem like scumflips.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: ika

I'm annoyed we early wagoned him now, because I'm fairly sure it could be the correct one.
Basically all he has been doing is asking for readlists of no content.

Why is it a problem that we wagoned him at the beginning of the game? Nothing is stopping us from doing it again.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I like how in Ankamius' iso, you have the following two posts one after another:

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

Quick question for you Cheery Dog.

I don't think I've found enough town in anybody yet to do that. At least not until you asked. At this stage I think Pysche and Aeronaut.

Scum reads are probably Llama, BBT and elk.

Vote would probably be on Llama, but it's waiting on what may happen with his push on me before it's placed.

Has your reads changed since this post? If so, what has changed?

He really seems very uninterested in having any sort of positive impact on the game.

[Cheery Dog]

Yeah okay, I'm voting scum. Shows up instantly after being suspected, comments pretty much only on things that revolve around suspicion directed towards his slot and then tries to cover Elks post as "Stop showing up" rather than a case of Elk having a very genuine conversation between team mates posted.

CES, there's cookies over here.

The elk thing is fine, but when he's also stated that he's going to look through the rest of the thread, I think this post has come up too early for that point to actually be worth anything.

[Cheery Dog]

I do think the ikavote is something you're more likely to do as scum if you feel you're probably getting lynched. I don't really see what Cheery Dog thinks is going to come from that.

I'm hoping what comes will be a successful ika lynch. That's pretty obvious isn't it?

I'm mostly just not in a particular hurry to lynch anyone.

That doesn't seem to be the case to me.

[Cheery Dog]

I think anything gained will only benefit team mafia as a while rather than unsocial games.

What does this mean, Cheery?

That my phone likes not making sense. unsocial was meant to be specific, and for context that was my belief on tokens.

437 - Lot of words, looks good on surface but not a whole lot of useful information in it when you read it closely. Apologies for the wall, tried to break it up as much as I could.

Couple of things;

Good point regarding Ank's reads-list. Look forward to the reply.

"

I don't base my reads solely on the token thing, but if someone in my mind could really either be scum or town, probably going to put them over the edge to be town if they spent tokens to be town

" How do you know they're not lying?

Anti made the town read on that slot stronger because I don't see Anti replacing

into

a scum slot. Glad to see you read thoroughly during your catch up.

Also, from reading your catch-up it feels your scum read on elk should be stronger than null-scum. Feels like you're setting yourself up to join his wagon should it take off again.

You were having '

serious doubts

' about Zach's alignment earlier in the game...I don't remember these doubts being expressed anywhere?

Ah, look at the set-up to join an Aero wagon after people have expressed disliking of that slot. That's just fantastic timing you have there. A 'convenient' time for a 'catch-up' if I've ever seen one.

Now, the only real read you give on me is during my discussion with Psyche regarding Llamarble's reads list in which you say "

This post reads really town to me on my second read through of the game. This is the type of frustration I think I would feel at this point talking to another player who doesn't see what I am seeing.

". When you reply to one of my posts, you seem to reply like you're town-reading me (know I'm town?)

So, how does this develop into a BBT scum-read? Not even null-scum, full on scum-read.

You say it's based on a 'theory'. You're going to have to do

much

better than this. I initially felt like the point of you bringing your teams reads into the game, especially using Tammy as someone who is scum-reading me, was a method of setting yourself up to attack me without it looking too blatant that it's OMGUS.

Hyper-aggressive on a single point is scummy? Firstly, don't act like that's all I have done because it isn't. Secondly, go read some of Thor's games when he is town. That's a pretty poor reason for scum-reading anyone, especially when you readily admit to having no idea how said person plays.

"

By being this aggressive and sticking to a theoretical reason to disagree with everyone

" This is a huge misrep and exposes your scum read as pretty weak.

I'm really happy with my vote and people should be voting Oversoul now.

Thanks.

I don't understand how people manage to always scumread people for talking to scumreads as if they could be town. I've seen this in so many games and it's never made sense to me, that's just how playstyles work.

[Cheery Dog]

Ffery is going to check out the BBT aggressive scum thing - I don't see it but I haven't looked at any meta so I'll look into it if Ffery says it's plausible.

I had a look at him earlier, I think he generally tries to be aggressive as both alignments.

VOTE: ika

I'm annoyed we early wagoned him now, because I'm fairly sure it could be the correct one.
Basically all he has been doing is asking for readlists of no content.

Why is it a problem that we wagoned him at the beginning of the game? Nothing is stopping us from doing it again.

Because when I moved off him i was thinking 'eh probably town', and paranoia says that could still be the case.

I think most people just want to deal with him later, and given that he is playing to go under the radar and having that work, my suspicions raise. I suspect most people are likely to determine the same thing.

[Ankamius]

Do you want to keep voting for 'marble, Ankamius, knowing that in both scenarios, Cheery Dog literally started the game more than 5 times as likely to be scum as him?

Two teams in the initial round of RNG to get into the roster got over 90 points.

In regular English, I am unimpressed with this type of argument when it's still entirely possible to beat the odds. Until I feel that playing the setup can almost ensure a win, I only use it as a supplement to enforce the reads I already have; it's never going to be strong enough to entirely change my reads.

Ank, would like you to elaborate on the "theory" that your team had in Post 390 even if it's not something you believe in.

Sure.

Bulbazak's theory revolved around the points that (a) you and Llamarble were playing like scummates and (b) scum in general would be more likely to put a heavy focus on token discussion or general setup spec over scumhunting.

(a) Most of this point is on how you two treat each other.

#79: Llamarble puts Regfan as town for token reasons, but specifically says that the slot hasn't towned very hard yet.
#136: Llamarble puts the claimed town token users at the top of the list over the people that are being townread based on play. This is pretty interesting after taking (b) into account.
#161: Regfan puts Llamarble just below the strong town pile.
#220: Llamarble's post here was the most interesting post in this set for a few reasons, which Bulbazak and I both scumread for independent reasons: 1) The way he goes into the Empire read and very sharply goes back on the suspicion he was getting on the Regfan slot for Empire's actions in the same post, and (2) because this post is formatted differently from every other post he's made so far in the game. Llamarble's posting up to that point had been putting thoughts on new lines, even when they're parts of the same type of thought. Most of this post is typed in a paragraph, even though one of the most drastic changes in thought are within it. This can easily indicate a change in mindset in making that post, basically that he wants to be careful about his read on Regfan. It's not too strong of a point, but it doesn't sit well with me regardless.
#247: Llamarble states he's expecting Regfan to call him confirmed town.
#272: Regfan obliges and calls Llamarble confirmed town.

Since White Flag rewards scum for trying to keep everyone alive, this type of read velocity is something that's not going to be uncommon.

(b)

A lot of Llamarble's early posting was on getting reads based on token usage over finding people who are scum; this is especially suspicious due to what his team consists. Bulba expected a lot more scumhunting earlier on than what actually happened.

Regfan's earliest posting put a heavy emphasis on mechanics and Bulba was worried about the lack of the type of analysis he's used to seeing from Regfan.

---

There's a few things that makes this theory less likely, and Bulba has been too busy to really take another look at the game yet, so I don't have any answers to how he thinks they fit into what he thinks:

a) BBT had a remarkably similar thought process to Bulba's regarding the game, yet eventually got called virtually confirmed town by both Llamarble and Regfan. This is the biggest thing that gave me pause to whether this theory was in the right ballpark or not, since BBT had already basically proven that he wasn't going to allow shenanigans like this to adjust his reads. It would've been a foolhardy scum tactic.

b) The second part of the theory is less applicable in more recent posts since both slots have started moving away from working based on mechanics and have incorporated more reads based on actual play in their posting.

So I don't know. I'm not convinced that either of your slots is town per se, but I'm less convinced that you two are scum with this strategy in mind at the bare minimum.

Here's where I'm at right now.

Town:
BlueBloodedToffee
Oversoul

Weak Town:
TellTaleHeart
ZachRulez

Weak Scum:
Cogito Ergo Sum
theelkspeaks

Scum:
Llamarble
Psyche

Everyone not listed hasn't done anything that caught my attention yet.

VOTE: Psyche

Never even knew this post existed. How is Regfan not on this list at all? How am I a strong town read?

Why is Regfan being off the list a problem? I went into the read on you later, although I'm not townreading you anymore, necessarily.

1. Not very indicative, but you noticed this post before.
2. The very first point you show any passion about whatsoever is in your disagreement with BBT's Llamarble/Regfan associations read. It's not indicative by itself, but it puts you in a much more negative light if either of those slots flip scum.
3. I'm just not seeing anything beyond the very early game in general that shows you're town. Most of your posts are fluffy and it feels like you're doing a chameleon impression when you post stuff that's not fluff... at least when it makes sense.

[Ankamius]

And now I'm going to wash my hands until they're nothing but dust because fuck making another wall like that again.

[ika]

are we goning to wagon me again? can i finally do slayers gambit?

@bbt i dont see you backing up your accusation with avote there. afriad?

[theelkspeaks]

ika wagon would be a waste, let's save him til we can read him better in a day or two.

[Oversoul]

Chameleon, well that's new.

[Llamarble]

Vote Count 1.17
Aeronaut (2) - Zachrulez, Regfan
Cheery Dog (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamarble
Psyche (2) - Antihero, theelkspeaks
ika (1) - Cheery Dog
Llamarble (1) - Ankamius
Oversoul (1) - BlueBloodedToffee
theelkspeaks (1) - Aeronaut

Not Voting (3) - ika, Psyche, Oversoul

Is a shockingly bad VC for this point in the game.

So it is.
VOTE: Aeronaut

[Llamarble]

Cool. I skimmed a little but Oversoul definitely has improved his standing.

[Regfan]

Sorry, been stuck out all day, have family coming over soon but will get to this after they leave in a few hours.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I do think the ikavote is something you're more likely to do as scum if you feel you're probably getting lynched. I don't really see what Cheery Dog thinks is going to come from that.

I'm hoping what comes will be a successful ika lynch. That's pretty obvious isn't it?

And you think that will happen just as a result of you placing a single unexplained vote?

are we goning to wagon me again? can i finally do slayers gambit?

If you want to do a gambit this game, you should ask GuyInFreezer for permission first.