Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[Aquanim]

One stubborn townie can't lose the game *immediately*, anyway.

For the record I've decided that if Elyse is scum I'd prefer to lose to her play than for this town to win. That's not quite the same as a townread but it functions like one at this stage.

[Elyse]

D'aw thanks. Unfortunately I'm not scum. I wish I was though lol.

[Metalcyanide]

VOTE: Vote Elyse you either suck at finding scum or have purposefully pushed only town players including myself

[Aquanim]

Well, that's probably suicide.

[Metalcyanide]

How?

[Aquanim]

How?

I don't see you winning a showdown with Elyse.

As for your actual argument there... pushing for two lynches which turn out to be town (even supposing that's true) doesn't necessarily make someone mafia. You'll need a much better argument than that.

[Metalcyanide]

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

[Aquanim]

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

That's a pretty bad idea, from a town perspective. if everyon just votes for who they likes scum quite possibly get an easy hammer on a townie to close out the game.

I really want to believe that if you were town you'd have thought that through. After the Mykonian flip I no longer have a lower bound on the incompetence of townies, but...

[Aquanim]

In the context that should perhaps have been upper bound. Whatever. Math is hard.

I'm not entirely certain this is the best play, but I really don't want to lose by not lynching Metal for three days.

VOTE: Metalcyanide

[TheDudeAbides]

I think Bella and TDA would be the most likely to be scum on that wagon

Why?

Because their reasons for joining the wagon is more suspect than the other 2 (you and metal).

This doesn't cut it.

eek's sudden push of me, when his vote came after mine sets my alarm bells ringing.

Your's seems to have come after Eek's. Isn't that right?

[TheDudeAbides]

I think we should no lynch today, but that it shouldn't happen quickly. I'll need the time to re-read.

I still don't think that Metal looks like scum. See this page for example. I just don't see scum doing any of that.

Aqua - you figured out that metal voting Eelyse is probably suicide, but you still think that he's doing it as scum?

For the people voting Metal, who do you think his buddies are?

[TheDudeAbides]

. . . ^ voting metal or who think that he's scum . . .

[TheDudeAbides]

Eektor

- could you tell me what you found fake in the exchange between IL and Metal.

[TheDudeAbides]

If Aqua, Elyse and Metalcyanide are all town, then the scum team is probably Bella, Boon and one of Eektor and Tool. It's certainly 3 of the 4 and I don't think Tool and Eektor are buddies.

SO far I've reread 10 pages and I haven't managed to rule out anything particularly interesting - the people I think are town have had better interactions with others, but since I think they are town anyway, that doesn't help me all that much.

[Aquanim]

Aqua - you figured out that metal voting Eelyse is probably suicide, but you still think that he's doing it as scum?

I know, I know, believe me I know...

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

...but how can I let this post live?

If Aqua, Elyse and Metalcyanide are all town, then the scum team is probably Bella, Boon and one of Eektor and Tool. It's certainly 3 of the 4 and I don't think Tool and Eektor are buddies.

I agree with this, except that if Metal's scum I'd substitute him for Boonskiies. I'm aware that trying to get associatives out of Boon's play is a perilous prospect but if he's scum with Metal I don't see why he went apeshit after I posted the Mykonian case.

I'm really not sure which of Tool and Eektor I would go with, though.

[Aquanim]

This isn't much more than a gesture, but:

UNVOTE: Metalcyanide

[Elyse]

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Remember that time metal townread me after his "reaction test" and I continued to push him and all of a sudden I'm scum?

Yeah same.

[Aquanim]

@Elyse, TheDudeAbides

: I think you're both town, and you have strongly conflicting reads on Metalcyanide. Whichever one of you is right, convince me and the other one, or we lose.

I think the obvious first place to go is for TheDudeAbides to take a look at Elyse's case, most recently posted in #1668.

I fully intend to contribute to this discussion, as should others, but you both appear to be very sure - and despite my frusturation at the thought a townie might think #1681 is a good idea, I am no longer sure.

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Remember that time metal townread me after his "reaction test" and I continued to push him and all of a sudden I'm scum?

Yeah same.

Remember that Metal was scumreading Mykonian. After a townflip there it is not unreasonable that some of his previous townreads might alter.

[toolenduso]

Aqua and Elyse, I see your points. They make sense. Maybe I'm just not as sure in my reads as you two are or something, because while I do think there are some predictable scum kills out there, I'd feel more comfortable knowing that I was right about at least one of those slots being town. I mean I do think one of you two would probably die if we go to night, but there's always the chance that I'm wrong or that scum kills somebody I don't have a good read on. It's mainly for that reason that I'm thinking it would be a good idea to no lynch.

If I were to vote right now, it would be for eektor. If I were to vote for a wagon that I think could actually go through and is also likely scum, it would be for Metal.

[Elyse]

@Elyse, TheDudeAbides

: I think you're both town, and you have strongly conflicting reads on Metalcyanide. Whichever one of you is right, convince me and the other one, or we lose.

I think the obvious first place to go is for TheDudeAbides to take a look at Elyse's case, most recently posted in #1668.

I fully intend to contribute to this discussion, as should others, but you both appear to be very sure - and despite my frusturation at the thought a townie might think #1681 is a good idea, I am no longer sure.

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Remember that time metal townread me after his "reaction test" and I continued to push him and all of a sudden I'm scum?

Yeah same.

Remember that Metal was scumreading Mykonian. After a townflip there it is not unreasonable that some of his previous townreads might alter.

I've made my case abundantly clear since the end of day 1 and metal continues to scrape by. I would like to see TDA try to justify a townread on him. Your townread on TDA is interesting to me.

Metal isn't scummy for changing his read, it's because of his reasons. He could have used the same reasons yesterday but he townread me yesterday. The only town player I have pushed is Taly and if he's arguing that I'm pushing him and he's town (which he's not), then why didn't he use that as a reason yesterday? He's desperate.

[Bellaphant]

Bellaphant, who do you want to lynch next?

Eektor.

And when Elyse or myself is dead tomorrow you'll have learned nothing of worth. Are you seriously considering lynching either of us?

There is, of course, the outside possibility that you and Elyse are scum together and you are playing a really good game. Posts like this make me wonder

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

What makes you say this?

Because their reasons for joining the wagon is more suspect than the other 2 (you and metal).

This doesn't cut it.

I like this. My read on TDA is still not solid either way, but I like this. Also, sorry, I was an idiot and got muddled about the votes. It's also interesting that you picked me up on this: seems more town-motivated.

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Remember that time metal townread me after his "reaction test" and I continued to push him and all of a sudden I'm scum?

Yeah same.

I've made my case abundantly clear since the end of day 1 and metal continues to scrape by. I would like to see TDA try to justify a townread on him. Your townread on TDA is interesting to me.

Metal isn't scummy for changing his read, it's because of his reasons. He could have used the same reasons yesterday but he townread me yesterday. The only town player I have pushed is Taly and if he's arguing that I'm pushing him and he's town (which he's not), then why didn't he use that as a reason yesterday? He's desperate.

This makes sense to me. Elyse, talk to me about TDA?

[Elyse]

TDA is someone I've had trouble reading. I generally like his content, but his style of posting a bunch of times in a row to catch up and never really going back and forth with people makes it hard to read him. There is a small amount of paranoia that he and Aqua are scum together and are buddying me and feeding into my metal read but I don't think that's the case. Aqua's townread of him is just a little unnerving because I find it hard to read TDA, but maybe it's just me. And like Aqua said, with the way this town has been playing I wouldn't even be mad about it.

TDA is someone I would probably freak out about in LyLo but would be town, most likely.

I think scum is probably metal/eektor/Boon or metal/eektor/Bella. I don't see tool scum at all and Aqua is 99% town. If I had to guess and we made it to 3p LyLo, it would be some combination of {Bella, Boon, eektor, TDA} and all I'll say about that is I'll be glad to be dead lol.

[Aquanim]

@Elyse

: This is probably going to be hard, but I'm going to ask you to reassess toolenduso. I townread him too for a long time... but I've begun to not like the way he's kind of tagged on the end of a lot of wagons after they gathered momentum (Taly and Metal day 1, Metal day 2). Try to disassociate it from your Metal read. I don't know if he's scum, but I'm not really townreading him much any more.

I'll see what I can do about explaining my TDA read, but that's going to be difficult as well.

My biggest objection to a no-lynch today is that (with all due respect) if we let Mafia take three shots before the end of the game, I don't place much faith or trust in the players I suspect would be alive at 3p LYLO. If we only let scum have two shots between now and 4p MYLO, whoever the additional townie turns out to be I suspect I will have more faith in them, looking at my reads.

[eektor]

Eektor

- could you tell me what you found fake in the exchange between IL and Metal.

The exchange didn't make sense, it doesn't seem natural. I don't know how to explain it more than that.

[eektor]

I'm willing to go for a Bella or Boon lynch.

@Elyse I know you see metal as scum. Do you think that whole not voting for IL, was him WK'ing a townie instead of him defending a scum buddy?