Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[Aquanim]

@Aqua I find case 2 and 3 more likely than your case 1 and 4.

I mostly do as well, I think.

In respect to Case 4, like you said earlier the indecision on the lynch between metal and IL makes me think one of them had to be scum. If you noticed IL wasn't around and voting. If IL was scum, that would have hurt the scum team's chances of pushing the counterwagon, which is why I think we ended with a no lynch and why I think out of those two IL was scum.

I agree that it's

probably

true that if Metal and Bella were both town one of them would have been hammered by mafia. I haven't given much consideration to this case, since I don't see myself catching a team that doesn't have either of them in it.

Also, I don't think tool can be paired with metal because when given the choice between metal and IL, he voted for metal. Only way he can be paired with metal is if he was scum with both metal and Bella. I think lynching Bella is the better way to go.

I think Tool+Metal is rather unlikely unless both Metal and Bella were scum, yes. I find Boon+Metal even less likely as scumbuddies on some level (not dependent on the Bella flip, even) but association cases with Boon are questionable.

Tool could conceivably have been uncomfortable getting on the wagon of somebody who had been V/LA and in hospital, and instead decided to bus Metal. It's a possibility but I think it unlikely.

Both of those are more likely than Elyse+Metal or Eektor+Bellaphant, for sure.

[Bellaphant]

Stupid question: could boon's weak/odd case on tool, paired with tools kinda non reaction to it, mean instead of one of them being town, as I thought, they are both scum? I'm gonna have to Re-read it. If that is the case, eek maynt be scum. @aqua, the last two pairs in the post above: are they necessarily scum v town, or just not scum together?

[Aquanim]

...
@aqua, the last two pairs in the post above: are they necessarily scum v town, or just not scum together?

Each of those pairs is not both scum. Could be one, could be neither.

[Elyse]

VOTE: Bellaphant

I think this is the way to go.

[MonkeyMan576]

Vote Count 3.05 - up to post #1853.

Bellaphant[2]: Eektor, Elyse
Eektor[1]: Toolenduso
Toolenduso[1]: Boonskies
Boonskies[1]: Aquanim

Not Voting: Bellaphant, TheDudeAbides, Metalcyanide

With 8 alive, it requires 5 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Friday, April 24th at 7:00 PM USA Mountain Time

, or when a lynch occurs

[Aquanim]

VOTE: Bellaphant

I think this is the way to go.

You're probably right.

With regard to Boonskiies' reaction to my vote for him, I don't see anything about it which convinces me he wasn't scum selfvoting to try to get me to panic-townread him, then backing off when it became clear I wouldn't bite.

In my last game I ended up policy voting (and hammering) a >90% town-read because they martyred and self-voted. Besides the martyr, I felt he was the townie in the game who least deserved to have a mislynch on his record, but I did it anyway. Given that, my attitude to this one is "lynch it with fire" - but I am okay with it happening another day.

I want to do a little more thinking before I put my vote onto Bellaphant but it will happen.

[Elyse]

Stupid question: could boon's weak/odd case on tool, paired with tools kinda non reaction to it, mean instead of one of them being town, as I thought, they are both scum? I'm gonna have to Re-read it. If that is the case, eek maynt be scum. @aqua, the last two pairs in the post above: are they necessarily scum v town, or just not scum together?

This is subtly aligning her reads where the wind seems to be blowing

[Aquanim]

Yeah, I got that. The way she hasn't really acknowledged the pressure against her is bizarre and I'd like to believe a townie would have done so.

[toolenduso]

I have kind of a bad feeling about the Bella wagon, and looking back over people's reads it seems like the only wagon I would support today that has a chance of succeeding is Boonskiies. So I'm going to do some interaction analysis here as well as dig a little deeper into Aqua's VCA.

[Elyse]

Yeah, I got that. The way she hasn't really acknowledged the pressure against her is bizarre and I'd like to believe a townie would have done so.

That too.

Why do you have a bad feeling tool?

[toolenduso]

Well I think there are better candidates for a lynch for one. But also I didn't like the way Metal and eek came out in support of the Bella wagon. It felt like they let themselves be persuaded into it:

Spoiler: Metal and Eek posts

@metal Is there anybody else besides Elyse you want to vote for? Would you vote for Bella?

I can see what your saying about Bell not doing much of anything since replacing in. Only thing of substance (imo) is the early read list and voting for myk near deadline.

Sorry didn't finish my post, so yes I would vote for Bella. With whats there for IL and Bella I could go for a Bella lynch in our current situation. And to reiterate what I've said before IL only got a break from me because he wasn't around

@Aqua I find case 2 and 3 more likely than your case 1 and 4. In respect to Case 4, like you said earlier the indecision on the lynch between metal and IL makes me think one of them had to be scum. If you noticed IL wasn't around and voting. If IL was scum, that would have hurt the scum team's chances of pushing the counterwagon, which is why I think we ended with a no lynch and why I think out of those two IL was scum.

Also, I don't think tool can be paired with metal because when given the choice between metal and IL, he voted for metal. Only way he can be paired with metal is if he was scum with both metal and Bella. I think lynching Bella is the better way to go.

[Aquanim]

Considering that Eektor was the first to push a Bella lynch in the thread today (as far as I recall) I'm not sure that's an accurate statement applied to him.

[toolenduso]

Ah, you're right. Somehow I missed that.

Metal, though.

[Aquanim]

Are you positively townreading Bella for some reason that doesn't involve Eektor or Metal?

[Boonskiies]

VOTE: Bellaphant

I think this is the way to go.

You're probably right.

With regard to Boonskiies' reaction to my vote for him, I don't see anything about it which convinces me he wasn't scum selfvoting to try to get me to panic-townread him, then backing off when it became clear I wouldn't bite.

In my last game I ended up policy voting (and hammering) a >90% town-read because they martyred and self-voted. Besides the martyr, I felt he was the townie in the game who least deserved to have a mislynch on his record, but I did it anyway. Given that, my attitude to this one is "lynch it with fire" - but I am okay with it happening another day.

I want to do a little more thinking before I put my vote onto Bellaphant but it will happen.

Done it like 6 times as town. Done it once as scum. I can say this now without it being a trust tell. ttt

[Boonskiies]

I have kind of a bad feeling about the Bella wagon, and looking back over people's reads it seems like the only wagon I would support today that has a chance of succeeding is Boonskiies. So I'm going to do some interaction analysis here as well as dig a little deeper into Aqua's VCA.

Aqua, remember when I said watch for reactions to my self-vote and who would go on what wagon?

yeah.

VOTE: Tool

[Boonskiies]

Also, he's seemingly taking pressure off of Bella, where his two scum partners are voting so that others feel more comfortable about voting Bella today, so he can go in and be the hammer. Scum 101, come on guys.

[Boonskiies]

Honestly, the only person i feel I've even reacted with this game is Aqua, so I don't really get how interaction analysis of me will happen.

[toolenduso]

OK so it looks pretty much everybody has expressed support for a Boon lynch except for Boon. So that means two partners would have to be bussing if he's scum. Looking through interactions with him:

Spoiler: Aqua

-Pressured Boon pretty aggressively pretty much as soon as Boon replaced in (#432). Pretty tough to see this coming from a partner; maybe a little more likely if they have daychat but even then I just think a partner would give their partner a little more time or try to get them to give reads before chastising them publicly.
-Continued to either scumread Boonskiies or call him a policy lynch ever since. I mean, to the point where he's even been kind of mean to Boonskiies. I do not see these slots being partners.
-Boon townreads Aqua.

Spoiler: Bella

-Started off with a neutral read on boon, #1484, which is what I would expect from a partner.
-Maybe like a tiny little defense of boon in #1586? This one isn't so strong for me.
-#1721 is Bella's first mention of boon being scum, and it seems like it comes from Elyse.
-#1851 would be, from a scumpartner, setting up a lynch based on their partner's flip.
-Definite candidate for partner should Boon flip scum.
-Boon townreads Bella.

Spoiler: eektor

-#742 looks like the first time eek really talks about boon, and it's to question him and even kinda call him a scumread.
-Criticizes the "policy lynch" feeling of the momentum against Boon in #1403.
-Has set up boon as an early possible partner of multiple people (Taly, Myko).
-These two don't look like partners.
-Boon scumreads Eek.

Spoiler: Elyse

-Her first real mention of boon is in #1413, where she lists him as possible scum without much of an explanation why. I could actually see this coming from a partner, especially given her lack of talking about boon earlier on.
-Criticizes Boon's case against me in #1575, but that was after Aqua did it so that's also something that could come from a partner (jumping on another player's criticisms so as to keep distance).
-Candidate for a partner with Boon, as much as I townread her otherwise.
-Boon scumreads Elyse. Given the way these slots have interacted, though, I could see that being planned.

Spoiler: Metal

-First mention of boon is in #529, when he assumes that RC's fake "adorable" result on "Annie" is referring to boon. Now, this whole episode was pretty weird. But I do wonder if this could come from scum paranoid about a cop getting a result on their partner.
-Scumreads boon in #719, though, which is pretty early for a partner.
-Starts pushing Boon pretty hard around #1010.
-Spends, like, most of his energy pushing boon for the rest of his ISO. Yeah, that doesn't look like a partner to me.
-Boon townreads Metal.

Spoiler: TDA

-Starts by asking boon some questions just like everyone else in the game. His first real mention of the slot aside from that is in #1116, when he says he "doesn't remember" anything about the slot.
-Yet, in the [urlhttp://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=6685768#p6685768]next post[/url], 10 minutes later, he says boon is one of two people he thinks town should lynch. Then he votes him two posts later.
-Pushes Boon pretty consistently for the rest of the game. I don't know what to make of this. His vote on boon came close to deadline, so if he's actually boon's partner then he was either pretty confident that people wouldn't go for it (I'm actually kind of surprised people didn't lynch boon that day given the attitude toward his slot throughout the game, though I'm not 100% clear of where everybody stood on Boonskiies at the time) or he was ready to lose a partner and take the towncred that would come with it. The way he kind of pulled boon out of nowhere doesn't really feel like something a partner would do, but it's not as clear a separation as what I see between boon and Aqua.
-Boon townreads this slot.

Wow, I wish I had done this earlier. Of all the slots still alive in the game, the ones that look the most like they could be bussing boon are a slot I townread and I slot I kind of townread. TDA is an outside chance, but if we had a scumflip from boon and I was only looking at interactions then Bella and Elyse would be the first two people I would look toward.

So it's quite possible boon is scum, but it would mean I would have to kind of start from scratch with my reads.

[Boonskiies]

I feel Tool in a way just proved me as town by trying to find a case on me as scum.

[toolenduso]

Are you positively townreading Bella for some reason that doesn't involve Eektor or Metal?

I don't have a case for Bella being town, no. It's been more of a gut feeling, not seeing a reason why she looks like scum and the people who have been supporting her lynch. If we got a scumflip of boon though...

Aqua, remember when I said watch for reactions to my self-vote and who would go on what wagon?

You're ignoring the reason I'm doing it: There's not enough support for a lynch of either of my top two scumreads, but there is enough support for your lynch. Simple as that.

Honestly, the only person i feel I've even reacted with this game is Aqua, so I don't really get how interaction analysis of me will happen.

Well, kind of your interactions. But I more meant the way other people have interacted with you.

I feel Tool in a way just proved me as town by trying to find a case on me as scum.

r u for real boon. I'm scum because I'm forming a read on you, this is what you're saying.

[Elyse]

Also, he's seemingly taking pressure off of Bella

, where his two scum partners are voting so that others feel more comfortable about voting Bella today, so he can go in and be the hammer. Scum 101, come on guys.

I think that's exactly what you're doing.

Boon/Bella

[Aquanim]

@Boonskiies:

picking three people who were probably scumreading you anyway, and then trying to make points off them continuing to scumread you afterwards, doesn't impress me.

[Boonskiies]

Eh, I started scum reading them first. With the exception of eektor. They're just more active. Town deserves to lose this anyways. Just mislynch me, and get this game over with so i don't have to feel inclined to keep checking up on it.

@Elyse - I've never started a counterwagon away from a scumbuddy. Ever. I always bus. Always.

[Metalcyanide]

VOTE: Boon