Twin Trap (Game Over) [TM2015]

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Why does a wagon on a townie stalling mean both scum are on it, though? Wouldn't scum not want to make waves if they're off the wagon, too? (Well, I guess scum could have pushed a random townie to look busy.)

Because if it was mostly town, why would it stall with no alternate option? Scum have to push things in order to a) look involved and not get bitched out for being lurky and b) lynch a townie. There was already a wagon on town. There was no counterwagon on scum for scum to decide whether to bus or avoid. There was no counterwagon on town to split the votes. It's in scum's best interests to get a town lynch as soon as possible, cutting off discussion.

So unless you are suggesting that scum lurked the day away on purpose, I don't see a more probable or logical answer than both scum were already on the wagon and couldn't build enough town support to shut it down fast.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

this is nothing like his scum play has

ever been

?

I asked you this and you didn't answer. So I'm guessing the other game is one of many that match that tone?

[Quilford]

ETL, do you usually employ VCA in your games?

[zoraster]

Day 2

BipolarChemist ( 2 )

JohnnyFarrar

Quilford

[/color]

(L - 2 )

JohnnyFarrar ( 2 )

EspeciallyTheLies

BBMolla

[/color]

(L - 2 )

No Lynch ( 0 )

Not Voting ( 3 )

Patrick BipolarChemist Mina

Total Votes ( 7 )

Needed to Lynch [ 4 ]

Deadline: April 26th at 20:00 EDT
(expired on 2015-04-26 20:00:00)

I am out of town for the next few days, but will have internet.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

ETL, do you usually employ VCA in your games?

yes... doesn't everyone?

[Mina]

My team wants me to ask for:
-Most recent meta of JF replacing into games both as town and as scum.
-Meta of ETL being scumread as town in a small game.

[Mina]

this is nothing like his scum play has

ever been

?

I asked you this and you didn't answer. So I'm guessing the other game is one of many that match that tone?

I mean, I don't think his scum play is a monolith. The other game he linked was very different in style from Marketplace (he doesn't rabidly tunnel on anyone). I think he had some superficially town posts in ADwD as Pandora before he flaked from the hydra. But in general, he's a very easy to read player. (This is something Faraday told me as well, and I assume he has more experience with him.) I think there are enough instances in this game that I don't think he could fake.

[Mina]

(I mean, his scum games aren't all identical, but none of them he's looked close to as town as he does here.)

[Quilford]

ETL, do you usually employ VCA in your games?

yes... doesn't everyone?

no, because generally people realise it's shite almost immediately????

[Mina]

Didn't realize he was at l-1

But I don't expect thT to be believed

Shrug

This bugged me at the time--why did you think you wouldn't be believed, given everyone was townreading you?

I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts on ETL right now.

[Quilford]

Mina i think she's town but wrong about many things.

[Quilford]

Usually I get suspicious of people after they're wrong about enough things over a long period of time, but I think ETL is town

[EspeciallyTheLies]

ETL, do you usually employ VCA in your games?

yes... doesn't everyone?

no, because generally people realise it's shite almost immediately????

lol really... ok. objection noted.

[Quilford]

CES sums it up rather niftily here

VCA has always just been the fallacious reasoning of taking a reasonable position such as "there is an average amount of scum on this wagon", combining that with information from the flips, then resolutely ignore the fact that this new information changes how reasonable your original position and pretend it's still likely to be true. E.g. if you're playing a newbie and everybody on a certain wagon but player A flipped town, then player A isn't 69% likely to be scum; the fact that everybody else flipped town is very strong evidence in favour of the fact that that wagon might've actually been all town.

so never again, please? thanks.

[Quilford]

well ok i'm being too harsh. vca is very infrequently useful, it's just that your vca post was so bad i was wondering if you were scum

[Quilford]

Ok so then Quil unvoted because he thought I would hammer... not sure if that was for show or what.

Intent to hammer

Seriously, what the fucking fuck.

[Quilford]

So Mina voted to put him back at L-1, and quil then hammered. This makes me think quil/mina tbh. Kind of like.. that was kind of weird. I mean, I get the unvote, in that situation. It could come from either, but Mina voting to place him back at L-1 is weird. *note to self to go look at that bit again*

Yeah, maybe if you did go look at that bit again, you would have found that Mina didn't actually vote to place him back at L-1, she voted to hammer (but didn't realise she was no longer the hammer vote)

And part of why I waited so long to hammer was because I thought you wanted to catch up now.

*headdesk*

[Quilford]

I reckon BPC slot is scum. His posts keep looking worse and worse in hindsight, especially his reaction to Marangal outing herself, and his suspicions of Alchemist are really poorly formed but conveniently never come under any close scrutiny because he never actually votes for Al (oh look, another reason why a wagon might stall other than both scum being on it, looollll)

[Mina]

Not sure this changes anything in the slightest, but I knew I wasn't the hammer vote, by the way. It was a "fuck it, the game is stalling, Alch's lynch is inevitable because everyone wants to vote him, people are impatient for this to end, and none of the lurkers will post anything today so I might as well at least put him back at L-1" vote.

[Quilford]

Why did you say "why I waited so long to hammer" then :I

[Quilford]

You are such a mooch Mina I've brought this up twice before

[Quilford]

Also, why does everyone in the game have teammates who suspect Quilford?

Its coz their teammates are bad. even urs

[Mina]

And since BPC isn't here anymore, I'll say the major flaw in your catch earlier (which turns it from "holy shit, smoking gun, let's lynch him!" to "yeah, that's kind of scummy") is that he only said he was okay with the hammer AFTER it happened. He could have thought that from your PoV, you should have still wanted to wait for him. It's still kind of dissonant and a shallow, hypocritical reason to suspect you (well, did he suspect you or was it just a question--who knows with what BPC posted today?). I guess we'll never know if that was his actual reasoning, though.

p-edit: because Alchemist was at L-1 for days and days, so I HAD been wavering on hammering for ages. He'd only been at L-2 for like ten minutes.

[Mina]

Oh, and that was directed to BPC, since I literally hadn't hammered earlier just because he'd claimed to want to catch up.

[Mina]

This is your irrelevant semantics discussion of the day!