Mini 1670 - WTF MAFIA

[Drixx]

Was there some part of #77 that was confusing, or are you trying to get me to scum read you for some reason flubber? I don't see me at all defending that bullshit claim there. I don't think there's any upside to letting him live. The worst case scenario is that his claim is actually true, and I am almost completely certain that he was spewing bullshit all over the place. Someone would have to come into the game and outright claim to be scum to get me to want to lynch someone else today, at this point.

Since there's no conceivable universe where scum come into the thread and say they are scum (would result in a mod kill I believe since it's playing against win condition), you should take that as confirmation that I plan to hammer the shit out of McMenno. I'm looking forward to it. In fact, I'm going to just go ahead and give

intent to hammer

right now. Whomever puts him at L-1 ... know that I'm gonna hammer the second I notice.

Bro...73

#73 is quoted below. Explain how I was defending him then? My initial thoughts were that we could leave him and lynch him later. Then I sat and thought about it for a bit and realized his claim is almost certainly bullshit designed either to scare us into letting him live, with a small chance of being a ballsy scum gambit.

The best play is to ignore him until we get other scum first. We know there are 3 scum plus one third party scum. If he's being honest, then lynching him is super dangerous. If he's lying to present just this conundrum to us, we can lynch him later. If he's telling the truth about being able to vote after death, and he's scum, then it still makes sense to kill him later. In every case the best play is to just set him aside until we get 2 or 3 of the scum dead, and re-evaluate from there. He can use that time to try and convince us he's town by his play.

Notice how I said that if he was being honest, then lynching him would be dangerous. Then I thought about it some more.

It's sort of hilarious that you would scumread me for that. Scum are obligated to fake thinking about things and scum hunting, and what you get out of them is generally a narrative that they try and keep consistent. Town are free to think about things and let that thinking change our minds. I know you know what you're doing ... spend just a little more time using your reasoning on people who might actually be scum, thanks.

[Drixx]

You went from "don't lynch till we've gotten 2 scum" to "hammer as soon as I see L-1" in one page

Three people have posted without takind note of this

I must be missing something really simple

I think you're missing that I sat and thought about it for nearly an hour and a half.

[Derangement]

In the end, the logical analysis suggests that he is the same level of problem for us no matter what, except if we leave him alive into LYLO in which case he's more of a problem since we'd rather have a townie in that spot.

Assuming McMenno's a non-scum survivor, and will choose to side with scum the entire game (which is not a given), then the current 5v8 is dreadfully close to a 5v6 LyLo, yes. We can afford to mislynch only once.

But town lynching him does

not

make things better if he has deathvoting powers.
Day two would be 5v7, which is already MyLo. We can

still

only afford to mislynch once.

A town player killing McMenno is only slightly beneficial if we intend to no-lynch, or no one dies at night.

Keeping him alive at least for one day gives him the chance to prove whether he's willing to

help

town;
Finding a third-party to kill him for us, on the other hand, proves that third-party is interested in winning with town (meaning we won't ever lynch them), and gets rid of the survivor-jester problem.

Does this make sense, or is your certainty of a fakeclaim so big that you'd risk the game on it by dropping the hammer yourself?

[Flubbernugget]

@drix "Hey lets keep him around till later" is defending him. That way you can use night actions as a red herring later. This of course is assuming mcmenno flips mafia; pre-flipped associatives, etc, etc. But it's good to know you're losing your cool of a scumread that isn't even concrete.

[ika]

the first vc will go here!http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=60196
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=60004
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=61206

oddmusic:
Jeanne11
elusive:

McMenno

Flubbernugget:
Wanderer-nl
shos:

Wanderer-nl

BRantz
Derangement:

bins

Drixx:

bratz

McMenno:

Jeanne11, Flubbernugget, Derangement, elusive

Bellaphant
Ricastle:

Bellaphant

Bins: Ricastle

oddmusic, , , ,, , shos, Drixx, ,

[Drixx]

@Flubbernugget - If you want to see what it looks like for me to lose my cool, you may take a look at some other games and see it. If you think I've lost my cool and you don't see tons of bolding and underlining and profanity ... I probably haven't. I'm super calm almost all the time. If I do get irritated, I generally just go play a video game or get my aerobics in for the day. It takes a significant amount to actually get me upset enough that it actually spills out into a mafia game.

To me, it looks a lot like Derangement is the one pushing to keep McMenno alive. My initial reaction was the believe the claim or at least to be wary of lynching him just in case, but after I thought about it I just don't buy the claim. The only reason not to lynch him today would be if most of us believe the claim and aren't willing to waste a "mislynch" on him. Does anyone really want to leave him alive long term?

And you're wrong, by the way. If his claim is honest, then Derangement is right and I was right in my initial thoughts on the situation, and if he was honest with his claim then it makes sense to keep him around until lynching him wouldn't put us into immediate end game. Killing him puts us in a precarious spot if his claim is true. I just happen to have changed my mind on the probability of his claim being true.

You don't get to claim I'm defending someone when I'm suggesting we kill them at a time when his claim being honest would be less harmful to town. You certainly don't get to claim I'm defending someone when I've labeled him a Policy Lynch in all cases. You're barking up the wrong tree by several miles, mate.

[Derangement]

To me, it looks a lot like Derangement is the one pushing to keep McMenno alive.

Pretty much, yeah.
I'll settle with postponing McMenno's lynch for later, if after everyone posts no non-town players have stepped up to declare their desire to hammer him.

It may sound like a claim that's too lopsided to be true, but then so does Bins being hated, for exactly the same reason.
(Heck, if they're both true, we might

already

in MyLo Maybe all scum are lovers to compensate?)

[McMenno]

Yup, go ahead and lynch me. And another third party will be

sure

to claim after he saw what happened to the first one that did...

[Derangement]

Yup, go ahead and lynch me. And another third party will be

sure

to claim after he saw what happened to the first one that did...

Hi!
Good morning!

There are questions waiting for you.

[Drixx]

Yup, go ahead and lynch me. And another third party will be

sure

to claim after he saw what happened to the first one that did...

Your win condition is to survive until the end game. There is no possible way you can be trusted to play for the town win con in LYLO when you can just wait for scum to vote and hammer and you win no matter what. How on earth do you expect to be anything but a policy lynch as a survivor?

[Ricastle]

Menno's claim is distracting from scumhunting. Scum are capitalising on this.

VOTE: Derangement

[Derangement]

Menno's claim is distracting from scumhunting. Scum are capitalising on this.

VOTE: Derangement

Does that mean you believe his claim?

[McMenno]

Yup, go ahead and lynch me. And another third party will be

sure

to claim after he saw what happened to the first one that did...

Your win condition is to survive until the end game. There is no possible way you can be trusted to play for the town win con in LYLO when you can just wait for scum to vote and hammer and you win no matter what. How on earth do you expect to be anything but a policy lynch as a survivor?

I don't know, maybe that I am an extra vote for mafia if I'm lynched?

[Ricastle]

Does that mean you believe his claim?

Sure, at least partially.

Also you're employing the exact thing I just accused you of, so I'm happy with sitting on my vote for now.

[Drixx]

Yup, go ahead and lynch me. And another third party will be

sure

to claim after he saw what happened to the first one that did...

Your win condition is to survive until the end game. There is no possible way you can be trusted to play for the town win con in LYLO when you can just wait for scum to vote and hammer and you win no matter what. How on earth do you expect to be anything but a policy lynch as a survivor?

I don't know, maybe that I am an extra vote for mafia if I'm lynched?

Threats are totally going to help you win lol. Your claim is almost certainly bullshit and even if it weren't, it's not as if you would play to town win condition in MYLO/LYLO.

[Derangement]

Does that mean you believe his claim?

Sure, at least partially.

Also you're employing the exact thing I just accused you of, so I'm happy with sitting on my vote for now.

That's perfectly fine.
I understand the need to scumhunt elsewhere, but I'm afraid I'm going to need some sleep before I'm capable of doing that properly.

In the meantime, I'll be a little obnoxious, and remind McMenno that he is doing the opposite of what he said he would.
If he wishes to contribute to town, but doesn't have the energy to actually scumhunt, he can ease in by replying to the questions already directed at him, or acknowledging he will not be doing so:

Not to look a gift horse in the mouth, but why did you decide to scumhunt, rather than look purposefully scummy, or just afk and cruise-control your way to victory, McMenno?

Oh, right. And then there's the elephant in the room.
What happens if

third party

kills you, McMenno?

Or ask more details like how does his vote work, how many times (or what limits) there are on his vote, and stuff like that. Also, McMenno why did you choose to just spill your guts in the first post of the game instead of waiting till you were in any danger?

Thank you for your consideration, and see you all in a few hours!

[Bins]

Is there any case where this guy doesn't need to be lynched?

ahem

I said he does. Not yet. Because for now, I DO TRUST HIS CLAIM.

[elusive]

Bins claim makes sense and is not overly complicated while mcmennos does not. There's a difference.

[Bins]

Menno's claim is distracting from scumhunting. Scum are capitalising on this.

VOTE: Derangement

Honestly, I think Drixx is the most suspicious for this reason but I have to look over.

[Bins]

Bins claim makes sense and is not overly complicated while mcmennos does not. There's a difference.

Is there any case where this guy doesn't need to be lynched?

ahem

I said he does. Not yet. Because for now, I DO TRUST HIS CLAIM.

Because if we do descide to lynch him, we're going to distract scum hunting more by spending pages picking who hammers him.

[Bins]

Oops, I don't know why I quoted elusive.

But @elusive, I did claim a 4-part role.

[Bins]

It may sound like a claim that's too lopsided to be true, but then so does Bins being hated, for exactly the same reason.
(Heck, if they're both true, we might

already

in MyLo Maybe all scum are lovers to compensate?)

Wait, nvm.


Derangement, we're going to need to have another talk about what you mean by this.

[Bins]

OOPS WHY DID IT QUOTE DRIXX MOBILE POSTING IS HARD.

[Derangement]

It may sound like a claim that's too lopsided to be true, but then so does Bins being hated, for exactly the same reason.
(Heck, if they're both true, we might

already

in MyLo Maybe all scum are lovers to compensate?)

Wait, nvm.


Derangement, we're going to need to have another talk about what you mean by this.

This is me basically laughing at the outright absurdness of the game's composition, given the information I have so far.
There's four scum, so right now we are playing, best case scenario, 4v9.

If we believe McMenno, then he has no reason to not side with scum if he believes things are going in their favour.
That'd put us at 5v8.

If you are hated and not scum, then for all intents and purposes, that bumps the numbers up to 6v8.
If we mislynch, and someone other than you dies at night, day two will be 6v6.

Game over.

So I tried to guess how there might be a balancing factor to compensate for the fact that a single mislynch ends the game.
The first thing that popped to mind was that scum are all lovers, so a single

correct

lynch would end the game too.

Sadly, this is probably wishful thinking on my part, given how the mod said our roles are not alignment indicative, and things really can be that unbalanced in scum's favour.

So, I'm trying hard not to despair here, because I do not think it is feasible for town to lynch correctly four times in a row.
I'm inclined to park my vote on McMenno, on the principle that, if he's lying, he needs to burn ASAP.
If he's not, then we are

soooo

screwed, that it won't have made too much of a difference.

[Bins]

How does me being hated change the numbers at all?!