Mini 1668 - Mafia in Bremen - Game Over!


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Post Post #1325 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 2:55 pm

Post by Rune »

In post 1323, Oversoul wrote:
In post 1322, Rune wrote:od this game is going nowhere. If I promise to be nice can we work together and make a collective town decision?

Was this addressed to me?


Addressed to anybody willing to listen. I'm really sick of the way this game is going.
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Post Post #1326 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 2:59 pm

Post by Oversoul »

In post 1324, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 1318, Oversoul wrote:If Jake gets to L-1 I will hammer him regardless of claim.

what was the point of this? we know you are scum reading me, nobody gives a shit


there's chum in the water
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Post Post #1327 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 2:59 pm

Post by Oversoul »

In post 1325, Rune wrote:
In post 1323, Oversoul wrote:
In post 1322, Rune wrote:od this game is going nowhere. If I promise to be nice can we work together and make a collective town decision?

Was this addressed to me?


Addressed to anybody willing to listen. I'm really sick of the way this game is going.


Sure. What do you want to talk about?
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Post Post #1328 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:02 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

In post 1326, Oversoul wrote:
In post 1324, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 1318, Oversoul wrote:If Jake gets to L-1 I will hammer him regardless of claim.

what was the point of this? we know you are scum reading me, nobody gives a shit


there's chum in the water

yet i'm the one trying to lynch scum...
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the whole game is dumb and we don't know why we're good at it and nobody knows what is going on and we're all going to have to accept that
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Post Post #1329 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:04 pm

Post by Nikanor »

Vote Count 3.03

Elyse (3)
- Palkia, Oversoul, Hostile Intent
Hostile Intent (3)
- Rune, Elyse, NotAnAxehole
Oversoul (1)
- TheReverend

Not Voting (2)
- Saint, Jake from State Farm

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-05-29 12:27:21).

Palkia has been prodded.
Last edited by Nikanor on Sun May 17, 2015 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I am in the bottom 10% of scumhunters onsite!
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Post Post #1330 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:05 pm

Post by Oversoul »

LOL. Nikanor perfect timing.

In post 1328, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 1326, Oversoul wrote:
In post 1324, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 1318, Oversoul wrote:If Jake gets to L-1 I will hammer him regardless of claim.

what was the point of this? we know you are scum reading me, nobody gives a shit


there's chum in the water

yet i'm the one trying to lynch scum...


You sure about that bud? Because last I checked... or wait, Nikanor just posted the VC.

You weren't voting anyone.

;)

Try again.
In post 1329, Nikanor wrote:
Vote Count 3.03

Elyse (3)
- Palkia, Oversoul, Hostile Intent
Hostile Intent (3)
- Rune, Elyse, NotAnAxehole
Oversoul (1)
- TheReverend

Not Voting (2)
- Saint, Jake from State Farm

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-05-29 12:27:21).
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Post Post #1331 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:10 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

oh yeah I unvoted to give elyse time to talk so the day didn't end so soon.

Vote: elyse
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Post Post #1332 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:12 pm

Post by Hostile Intent »

HAMMER SCUM. HAMMER SCUM. HAMMER SCUM.
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Post Post #1333 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:15 pm

Post by Rune »

In post 1327, Oversoul wrote:

Sure. What do you want to talk about?


Can we agree that it is almost certain that the counterwagon to Havoc was scum driven? I'd point out that said wagon is exactly the wagon on Elyse right now. If you disagree, please do your best to explain it, because this is obviously a sore point for me.

What do you think about HI townreading both you and Palkia given my above statement?

Right now, who would you be willing to lynch? What information you would get from those flips?

Do you agree we are probably look at a 10-3 setup (I don't think Havoc was operating independently)? In this case, which pairs do you think are the remainder of the team with Havoc?

Out of curiosity, am I the only one who noticed that Palkia didn't regret the lynch of PB (who flipped town) but immediately posted 'regret' on the hammer of Havoc (who then flipped scum). I didn't mention this earlier but I thought it was odd.

Please unvote so we don't lynch Elyse right now.
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Post Post #1334 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:16 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

In post 1333, Rune wrote:.

Please unvote so we don't lynch Elyse right now.

unvote


but consider my vote still on elyse
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Post Post #1335 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:17 pm

Post by Rune »

To be clear, pending the answer to my questions, I am not against providing the hammer on Elyse. But it isn't going to come from me until the right town motivation is there. Right now it isn't.

p-edit Thank you Jake.

Please feel free to also answer my questions to Oversoul.
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Post Post #1336 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:37 pm

Post by Oversoul »

In post 1333, Rune wrote:
In post 1327, Oversoul wrote:

Sure. What do you want to talk about?


Can we agree that it is almost certain that the counterwagon to Havoc was scum driven? I'd point out that said wagon is exactly the wagon on Elyse right now. If you disagree, please do your best to explain it, because this is obviously a sore point for me.
Yes, I think we can agree on that. I don't think both scum were on the PB counter wagon though.


What do you think about HI townreading both you and Palkia given my above statement?
I think she could be scum. I think she might be trying to stall a claim. I wish Palkia would stop being a lurker and definitively say he has a guilty on Elyse, otherwise I will lynch HI.


Right now, who would you be willing to lynch? What information you would get from those flips?
I am willing to lynch Elyse, Jake, HI, Palkia. My preferences may change. Elyse would give us information on Palkia. Palkia would also give us some associative tells. HI + Jake because I really dislike their play so far, not entirely sure what can be gleamed from HI given her iso. Jake probably would give us some associative tells too.


Do you agree we are probably look at a 10-3 setup (I don't think Havoc was operating independently)? In this case, which pairs do you think are the remainder of the team with Havoc?
Yes. The norm on MS is for games to be 10:3. I dunno who the pairs are yet. Need more information. I have a couple of speculations maybe, but I don't want to reveal them just yet.

Out of curiosity, am I the only one who noticed that Palkia didn't regret the lynch of PB (who flipped town) but immediately posted 'regret' on the hammer of Havoc (who then flipped scum). I didn't mention this earlier but I thought it was odd.
Yes, I saw this. Yes, I thought this was odd too.


Please unvote so we don't lynch Elyse right now.
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Post Post #1337 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:47 pm

Post by Elyse »

In post 1331, Jake from State Farm wrote:oh yeah I unvoted to give elyse time to talk so the day didn't end so soon.

Vote: elyse

Why would you do this if you haven't caught up?
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Post Post #1338 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 3:51 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

In post 1287, Jake from State Farm wrote:we have a guilty so we lynch the guilty right? I mean that's how I always play
Robbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.

the whole game is dumb and we don't know why we're good at it and nobody knows what is going on and we're all going to have to accept that
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Post Post #1339 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:02 pm

Post by Rune »

In post 1336, Oversoul wrote:
In post 1333, Rune wrote:
In post 1327, Oversoul wrote:

Sure. What do you want to talk about?


1. Can we agree that it is almost certain that the counterwagon to Havoc was scum driven? I'd point out that said wagon is exactly the wagon on Elyse right now. If you disagree, please do your best to explain it, because this is obviously a sore point for me.
Yes, I think we can agree on that. I don't think both scum were on the PB counter wagon though.


So we agree, that assuming you are town, either Hostile or Palkia are scum? I agree it is probable that there is one scum on the counter wagon.


2. What do you think about HI townreading both you and Palkia given my above statement?
I think she could be scum. I think she might be trying to stall a claim. I wish Palkia would stop being a lurker and definitively say he has a guilty on Elyse, otherwise I will lynch HI.


Palkia being a lurker is a huge problem and I really don't trust him enough to base my actions at this point on his posts. Until that changes, I believe we have enough information available to the whole town to do a good job at hunting scum independently of Palkia.



3. Right now, who would you be willing to lynch? What information you would get from those flips?
I am willing to lynch Elyse, Jake, HI, Palkia. My preferences may change. Elyse would give us information on Palkia. Palkia would also give us some associative tells. HI + Jake because I really dislike their play so far, not entirely sure what can be gleamed from HI given her iso. Jake probably would give us some associative tells too.


Jake's play today has been really subpar. I understand the town motivation for this lynch. However, I really don't think it is optimal, although I haven't ISO'd him and no immediate associatives come to mind except weak pushes on Palkia. Either way, I would rank Jake as the lowest priority of the four you mentioned. My problem with GS Guilty lynch is that I don't trust Palkia, and I don't necessarily trust Elyse's VT claim. I don't think that a flip on either of these players gives DEFINITIVE information, at least from my perspective. I think we have options which will give definitive information. For example, I am quite confident that you (oversoul) and HI are opposite alignments.



Do you agree we are probably look at a 10-3 setup (I don't think Havoc was operating independently)? In this case, which pairs do you think are the remainder of the team with Havoc?
Yes. The norm on MS is for games to be 10:3. I dunno who the pairs are yet. Need more information. I have a couple of speculations maybe, but I don't want to reveal them just yet.


That is fair. When you feel like bringing up possibilities, let me know. I think either today or D4 we are ready to put forward more information, such as this.



Out of curiosity, am I the only one who noticed that Palkia didn't regret the lynch of PB (who flipped town) but immediately posted 'regret' on the hammer of Havoc (who then flipped scum). I didn't mention this earlier but I thought it was odd.
Yes, I saw this. Yes, I thought this was odd too.


Another reason I have a problem basing my actions off something Palkia thinks is a good idea.



Please unvote so we don't lynch Elyse right now.
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Post Post #1340 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:05 pm

Post by Rune »

In post 1338, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 1287, Jake from State Farm wrote:we have a guilty so we lynch the guilty right? I mean that's how I always play


Do you care if the guilty comes from a troll who has quick hammered on both lynches, who lurks and who himself was at one point willing to unvote despite the alleged guilty? Does it matter that the guilty comes from your biggest scumread (at least, that was the case prior to the unprompted claim).
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Post Post #1341 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:07 pm

Post by Rune »

@Elyse
@ Rev

Please answer the 5 questions shown in post 1339 above and feel free to add your comments on Oversoul's reply and my response to that.
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Post Post #1342 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:14 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

it does worry me some that it is palkia claiming a guilty but it takes a really ballsy scum player to hammer his buddy and then fake claim a PR with a guilty. I say ballsy but actually it would be really stupid because if he and elyse are scum he'd be banking on town cred til the end of the game which would almost never last that long. The other possibility is he is town trolling which I realize is still a possibility, I really don't want to be in a situation where town had the chance to lynch scum and ended up lynching town.
Robbed of a scummy for what had to be the best unvote in mafiascum history.

the whole game is dumb and we don't know why we're good at it and nobody knows what is going on and we're all going to have to accept that
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Post Post #1343 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:19 pm

Post by Elyse »

I'm on my phone but quick answers:

1. Yes, I've been saying this all along
2. I am scumreading HI
3. HI, possibly Oversoul, Saint or Axe
4. Yes
5. My guess would be HI/Saint, Oversoul/Saint, HI/Axe and maybe some team with Jake or Palkia

P-edit
Yeah so why don't we wait for Palkia to come back then? What's the rush?
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Post Post #1344 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:27 pm

Post by Rune »

In post 1342, Jake from State Farm wrote:it does worry me some that it is palkia claiming a guilty but it takes a really ballsy scum player to hammer his buddy and then fake claim a PR with a guilty. I say ballsy but actually it would be really stupid because if he and elyse are scum he'd be banking on town cred til the end of the game which would almost never last that long. The other possibility is he is town trolling which I realize is still a possibility, I really don't want to be in a situation where town had the chance to lynch scum and ended up lynching town.


I would like to see a post from you with a detailed read on HI, and a response to my assumption that HI and Oversoul are of opposite alignments. What would your reaction be depending on what Elyse would flip?

I do hope you are able to catch up soon and realize that lately you have been pandering to several different people and haven't come across as genuinely scum hunting.
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Post Post #1345 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:29 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

it's not really rushing, I don't think anyone is going to hammer you but tbh hostile begging for someone to hammer you did feel weird

p.edit - I'll try and get that done tomorrow.
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Post Post #1346 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:34 pm

Post by Oversoul »

In post 1339, Rune wrote:
In post 1336, Oversoul wrote:
In post 1333, Rune wrote:
In post 1327, Oversoul wrote:

Sure. What do you want to talk about?


1. Can we agree that it is almost certain that the counterwagon to Havoc was scum driven? I'd point out that said wagon is exactly the wagon on Elyse right now. If you disagree, please do your best to explain it, because this is obviously a sore point for me.
Yes, I think we can agree on that. I don't think both scum were on the PB counter wagon though.


So we agree, that assuming you are town, either Hostile or Palkia are scum? I agree it is probable that there is one scum on the counter wagon.


Yes. I think that either Hostile or Palkia are scum. This is going into my pairings that I don't want to reveal though.


2. What do you think about HI townreading both you and Palkia given my above statement?
I think she could be scum. I think she might be trying to stall a claim. I wish Palkia would stop being a lurker and definitively say he has a guilty on Elyse, otherwise I will lynch HI.


Palkia being a lurker is a huge problem and I really don't trust him enough to base my actions at this point on his posts. Until that changes, I believe we have enough information available to the whole town to do a good job at hunting scum independently of Palkia.


I agree. I want him to confirm or deny his guilty and then proceed to lynch based on that information. I agree we probably information outside of Palkia to come to a consensus. I'm not entirely sure where that consensus should be. I am thinking within {Jake, Rev, Saint}.


3. Right now, who would you be willing to lynch? What information you would get from those flips?
I am willing to lynch Elyse, Jake, HI, Palkia. My preferences may change. Elyse would give us information on Palkia. Palkia would also give us some associative tells. HI + Jake because I really dislike their play so far, not entirely sure what can be gleamed from HI given her iso. Jake probably would give us some associative tells too.


Jake's play today has been really subpar. I understand the town motivation for this lynch. However, I really don't think it is optimal, although I haven't ISO'd him and no immediate associatives come to mind except weak pushes on Palkia. Either way, I would rank Jake as the lowest priority of the four you mentioned. My problem with GS Guilty lynch is that I don't trust Palkia, and I don't necessarily trust Elyse's VT claim. I don't think that a flip on either of these players gives DEFINITIVE information, at least from my perspective. I think we have options which will give definitive information. For example, I am quite confident that you (oversoul) and HI are opposite alignments.


You think Elyse is lying about her claim? I don't.
I think an Elyse townflip definitively points to a Palkia-scum.



Do you agree we are probably look at a 10-3 setup (I don't think Havoc was operating independently)? In this case, which pairs do you think are the remainder of the team with Havoc?
Yes. The norm on MS is for games to be 10:3. I dunno who the pairs are yet. Need more information. I have a couple of speculations maybe, but I don't want to reveal them just yet.


That is fair. When you feel like bringing up possibilities, let me know. I think either today or D4 we are ready to put forward more information, such as this.



Out of curiosity, am I the only one who noticed that Palkia didn't regret the lynch of PB (who flipped town) but immediately posted 'regret' on the hammer of Havoc (who then flipped scum). I didn't mention this earlier but I thought it was odd.
Yes, I saw this. Yes, I thought this was odd too.


Another reason I have a problem basing my actions off something Palkia thinks is a good idea.

It would be worse play to lynch Palkia first rather than Elyse, if Palkia adheres to his GS guilty.



Please unvote so we don't lynch Elyse right now.
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Post Post #1347 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:53 pm

Post by Rune »

2. Rev is town. Not helpful town, but town. Saint and his slot are also really problematic to this game, but I am expecting Saint to post more shortly, and we'll see how that goes. I also think that an HI lynch is probably best to give information on the three you mentioned here, but that gets much more into the realm of subjectivity than the rest of my points.

1. 3. and 5. - I don't recommend lynching Palkia at all today. I just also don't recommend lynching Elyse. If we agree HI or Palkia is scum, then HI flip from your perspective gives solid info about Palkia and Elyse (and could potentially make your claim more believable too), and definitively reveals at least one scum. Since this situation doesn't rely on Palkia providing information, and since the benefits of the flip are at least as good, why do you disagree that this is the optimal lynch?

I'm not saying I think Elyse is lying about VT. It just wouldn't surprise me and I'm not discounting the possibility. But troll/fakeclaim!Palkia seems quite plausible so I think we disagree on the value of an Elyse townflip. Without more from Palkia I don't think we will come to an agreement here.
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Post Post #1348 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 4:58 pm

Post by Oversoul »

In post 1347, Rune wrote:1. 3. and 5. - I don't recommend lynching Palkia at all today. I just also don't recommend lynching Elyse. If we agree HI or Palkia is scum, then HI flip from your perspective gives solid info about Palkia and Elyse (and could potentially make your claim more believable too), and definitively reveals at least one scum. Since this situation doesn't rely on Palkia providing information, and since the benefits of the flip are at least as good, why do you disagree that this is the optimal lynch


How does HI give information about Elyse?
I think HI might be a PR so I am wary of that lynch carte blanche.
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Post Post #1349 (ISO) » Sun May 17, 2015 5:05 pm

Post by Rune »

Your own assumptions:

Base: Oversoul is town.

A. HI and Palkia are opposite alignments.
B. Elyse town means Palkia scum.


Scenario 1.
HI flips town.

By A. Palkia is scum. No info about Elyse from the two assumptions.

Net result: 1 scum found. Additional value to town is that there is less suspicion on Elyse.

Scenario 2.
HI flips scum

By A. Palkia is town.
By B. Elyse can't be town. Elyse is scum.

Town win.

Of course, this is your perspective assuming you are town and you believe in the two assumptions I made (which you have explicitly agreed with in the last few posts).

So either you should reconsider your reads or think about my logic for a second, and realize that your current assumptions lead to the logical conclusion that an HI vote is at least as good as an Elyse vote, and relies only on the information available, not on waiting for Palkia to post more.

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