Signs and Void (Game Over) [TM2015]

[Untrod Tripod]

still don't see it?

[Cheetory6]

Lol.

[vezokpiraka]

This is great.

Titua was fucking scum. Let's 4nx. He's scum. No way there were two town wagons.

Also I still think UT is scum. If he isn't alquin, alquin should claim and we choose more lynches.

That should have been town not scum.

[Untrod Tripod]

uh huh

[Cheetory6]

If he was townreading you before, why would he say "still think UT is scum"?

[Cheetory6]

I've been asking you a bunch to talk at me about your vezok concerns, UT.
Am I just not worthy?

[vezokpiraka]

Gamma, focus on team building. It's clear he will dodge. Talk with Singer get her to bus UT or start playing protown if town. I don't care how. UT is scum.

So you've come to a consensus that I'm actually scum, have you? Wanna finally tell me why? Or are you gunna let me continue pushing your for the same reasons Gamma's pushing UT.

Guys.

I can finally tell you why singer is

scum.

Empire was scum in the vanilla nightless and was really upset because of it and switched with zar who hated the setup in vanilla nightless. I'm pretty sure there is absolutely no chance that Empire moved from a scum slot to another scum slot.

FTFY.

Also, Mina wanted me to correct myself. Empire put in three town tokens and still rolled scum. Pretty horseshit!

Dude. This happened already in this game. I fuck when I think and type scum instead of town.

[mastin2]

Btw. In case it wasn't obvious.
Yes, I am avoiding the thread right now.

No

, you do NOT want me posting right now.
Frankly I'm only posting right now because I know I'll get a prod if I wait longer. There are certain mindsets that simply do not belong in a game of mafia, and I am in one right now.

While I'm here, might as well announce that pie thinks she can figure out the game (I checked the PT after the flip, but haven't checked to see if she's followed through on that), since it should be broken wide open--I agree. In fact, I could probably do the same, were I in a good mindset.
I'm not.

Titus was my mN1 trace btw. I knew one sign she

wasn't

as a result, but not what she was. (From memory since I'm not even looking, signs don't flip with players so you need to know. She wasn't Candle.) I see no reason to claim my mN2 action nor my N2 protect.

Also for the record I was rather aware that if there were to be any scum in my townbloc it'd have been her (it's even in our PT btw where I said as much, early-on, when interacting with pie who had her as scum: "I'm iffy about adding Titus, but I'm adding her in for the sake of sanity and because she's useful" essentially; I could go back to paraphrase the exact messages if I felt inclined to but I really don't give a damn) but fuck if that means anything now.

Yes, this is a bit of a temper tantrum. Fortunately, other than this post, I have no desire to bring said temper tantrum into the thread.
(tl;dr, go away, leave me alone, I'll be in my room sulking. )

[mastin2]

Just checked. Pie's basic phrasing was, "give me a day or two, I'll break it wide open". (Not sure if that was gameday or real-life day, but I inferred the latter.) She also mentioned that one flip was all it took in Tales, and there's like half a dozen posts saying various spam about, "HAAAAAAAA! I WAS RIGHT!" on Titus but I digress.

The important bits are some fundamental "foundation" reads. (She didn't say they were foundation reads, but I'm assuming.)
Cheet/singer/Shadow/Dan town were what she said, and then she extrapolated from that a basic scumteam of anxiety, espeonage, and Gamma. She recalled Formerfish as maybe being town with posts unlikely to be a Titus buddy, but no details there yet.

Presumably she'll give more later; I'll keep you updated and give my own input once my mood improves.

[Shadoweh]

Three days. Can we finish baning Anx so we can get onto the Boony meat of the day?
Also, unless another town protective PR claims, Mastin is still p much confirmed town just because there's obviously a town protective PR. I don't think she's that much of a priority for today anyways, though? Though if she/pie don't want Formerfish lynched some reasoning for that would be needed, we think he's likely scum still.

[Gammagooey]

Agree that the completely meaningless bane should get the hell done

I do need to remind you that bulba already flipped something that used "protection" and that just going by the expectation that hito put in at least one 'real' protection role for town instead of using it in a modified way for bulba and giving scum a doc instead is a thing that could happen.

Tbf its definitely not a point against her but anyone's read on mastin really should be on what she's done instead of what's she's claimed

[Gammagooey]

For people wanting/considering keeping 2 lynches instead of risking for 1/3, can you give me something on why you think 4nx might be town? you don't have to believe it makes him LIKELY town but I would like to actually talk about that instead of just me talking about how I think his claim and defense from titus is super likely to be coming from scum, and I don't think there's anything in his recent posting that wouldn't be really easy for scum to create.

[Cheetory6]

Like.

If we choose trade.
And.
We mislynch.
We're fucked.
No thanks?
I'm agreeing on the confidence on the 4nx read. I still am not going to basically risk the entire game on that lynch just because it'd be nice to get another extra lynch if we are right.

[Gammagooey]

okay

explain to me how we're fucked if it's a town lynch then

[Cheetory6]

Like, we're not fucked, but like..
going from 9/3 to 6/3 is a big difference.

[Gammagooey]

we have kind of sort of X amount of lynches left in the game to lynch Y amount of scum, and it's not amazingly high but I don't think it's awfully low either.

The key points are that it looks like to me it's 4 lynches to hit two scum or likely lose if we keep, 3 lynches (including the 4nx lynch) to lynch 1 scum to proobably not lose unless scum pull off a triple kill if we lynch 4nx-town with the first lynch of trade, or an 4nx-scum lynch after trade that requires one more scum lynch somewhere in the next 4 lynches to basically ensure we get something resembling a LYLO/MYLO with 3/1 or 2/1.

if i math it out we have 12 alive now so assuming we keep we'll have two more, then be at probably 8 players and have two more lynches if we lynch no more scum before then. if we hit only one scum instead of two in there we still have a pretty large chance of losing after 4 lynches, but if scum only hit one target then we try to find the last two with two more lynches (approximation would be 9/3->5/3->4/2 night->loss or 3/2)


worst case is 1 more, then be at 9 players, and still have basically two more lynches to hit a scum, but it does get difficult there if we only lynch one scum by then.
approximation would be 9/3->6/3->5/2->small chance of loss but probably 3/2

best case would be 7/2 after 4nx correct lynch if the next two are mislynches, then 5/2, then either a loss going into night at 3/2 or having a guaranteed actually two-lynch lylo of 4/1->2/1.

[Gammagooey]

eh.

i guess the summary of this is

If we don't lynch two scum in the next two major days keeping or trading incorrectly, we are in a really bad spot. the scenario we're trading for would essentially be betting that we can lynch two out of three scum if 4nx isn't scum compared to having a triple kill win risk if we only get 1 out of 2 scum after an 4nx lynch but more likely getting another two lynches to lynch the final two scum.

On the other hand, if 4nx is scum and we trade for it, we get 4 lynches to hit a single additional scum, and then get what's basically a real LYLO.

Yes the situation of 4nx being town and trading is incredibly dicey, but lynching 2/3 scum after if we keep is also going to be very sketchy to deal with.

The alternative if 4nx is scum, the game swings HARD in our favor and gives us a huge number of lynches with absolutely no chance of losing the game unless we miss the next 4 consecutive lynches.

maybe this isn't a summary anymore

but yeah

[Gammagooey]

^should be no chance of losing the game before a 1-scum LYLO situation instead no chance at all

[Cheetory6]

From what I can tell:
Worst case with trade is that we get 2 more lynches to figure shit out if 4nx is town before things get awful.
Worst case with keep is that we get 3 more lynches to figure shit out if 4nx is town before things get awful.

[Gammagooey]

ugh

like if we keep, I think we should massclaim (EXCEPT SIGNS IT SHOULD BE OBVIOUS BUT FOR ALL THE BEAUTIFUL THINGS IN THE UNIVERSE DO NOT CLAIM YOUR SIGN) at the start of major day 3. From that point we have to hit 50% scum on the four lynches we have to prevent a loss, and massclaiming might narrow down shit enough to make sure that happens.

@cheet-awful is actually two different things there

awful a) is you get two lynches to hit 1/3 scum and have a small chance at losin and otherwise needing to lynch the last two scum the next day, or two lynches to hit 2/3 scum for no chance at all of losing then.

awful b) is you get 3 lynches to kill 2 scum or you have a VERY large chance of losing the game.

b is clearly better but it's still a sketchy as hell place to be in, while trading correctly puts us in an amazingly powerful situation.

[Cheetory6]

I care more about making the best decision.
Banking so hard on 4nx being scum could end up blowing up in everyone's faces.
You were what, like 100% confident on UT being scum, right?
Reads are fallible.
4nx is not a 100% bet for being scum and isn't worth the risk IMO.

[Gammagooey]

this is the idealist/bullshit philospher in me talking but

every mislynch from this point onward will put us exponentially closer to fucked unless we get down to 1 scum OR we trade successfully. Just about every lynch we're making from this point onwards is going to be very, very, very important if we choose keep or trade incorrectly. Yes, choosing trade frontloads an enormous amount of that risk. But it doesn't go away if we choose to keep.

[Gammagooey]

What are you confident in then. yes this is a serious question I want the strongest opinion you have about the game.

Very, very soon we will almost certainly come to a point where a single lynch will likely decide the game. Do you want that to be the lynch on 4nx, or on one of the vague lurkers, or someone you think might have bussed Titus into the ground? We can't eliminate risk just by keeping an average number of lynches. But right now we have a choice of where to put that risk.

[Gammagooey]

and since i bothered doing fuckin' MATH for this I want everyone to actually have a damn opinion and vote for one of the choices. if a choice gets closer than you'd like it to be to being hammered then say you'd vote it normally and hold off, but everyone reserving their opinion on what could very well be a turning point in the game for either side is absolutely miserable waste of an opportunity to analyze people's motivations.

[vezokpiraka]

choose : keep

bane anx

I really don't want to lose the second lynch.