Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[Lapsa]

I do not think he's feigning confusion - I think he's feigning reading. I have said this directly multiple times. I have *never* said the confusion was false.

No, I did not. i said the confusion showed that he was faking stuff, and that I found the faking scummy, not the confusion.

Spoiler: contribution

Always liked a game where RVS is done before the 2nd page.

¹

UNVOTE: Frogger
VOTE: Frogger

I don't think either tex or lapse were online while the rest were, confirming happened in less than 12 hours idrc. If you wanna look at their post history you should, lemme know if you find anything incriminating.

²

Frogger why no vote? Also, reads?

Plotinus, reads on Frogger so far then?

Froggers over defencive response is kinda reinforcing my read right now considering he just made a point that his scumhunting will show he's town, not his meta.

On a side note, I don't understand who Thor and tool are referring to so someone should clarify their sentences...

On another sidenote, screw Everton.

Wouldn't that be a reason

not

to vote him? Sympathy...? Whatever.

Anyway are you just voting whoever or are you purposefully voting with me?

Math, why did you choose Plot as opposed to any of the players who were voting you?

Frogger why no vote? Also, reads?

Plotinus, reads on Frogger so far then?

Froggers over defencive response is kinda reinforcing my read right now considering he just made a point that his scumhunting will show he's town, not his meta.

You're trying too hard here. I'm surprised Fro99er even responded with reads, you would have got 'lol, page 2' from me.

Since when is being defensive a scum tell? What is the problem with the scum hunting comment?

1. Not sure I understand. Most of the people voting me seemed to pretty clearly be wagoning, and I wasn't sure about Plot, and I figure asking questions in RVS is better than twiddling your thumbs until someone else does.
2. I feel as if continuing to restate my case against Frogger will give people the impression that I'm still scumreading him, so I'm going to assume people are reading my 158 and won't misunderstand me.
Idea is that Frogger responded to accusations by [29] claiming that his scumhunting will show that he's town...

and then proceeded to make a bunch of overdefencive posts that contain 0 scumhunting and all defence

³

. By his self-meta, I took that to be very non-townish.

29, 33, and 35 were the ones I was referring to as defencive.

38 I didn't see as particularly townish scumhunting

⁴

in the first place since it was just the usual "last to confirm, must be scum, oh wait never mind they weren't online" thing that one person always does in these games.

I didn't respond because I told you I was scumreading you for not scumhunting and then you scumhunted

⁵

. What I wanted to see was how genuine it was and to work with you anyway despite being a scumread. Treat everyone as if they're town when you're talking to them, treat everyone as could-be-scum when you're talking ABOUT them.

WHY ARE WE HAVING THIS ARGUMENT. Every single time someone asks me about my Frogger read they end up being like OH WOW HIS REASONS ARE BULLSHIT, MUST BE SCUM, except I'm not still touting those arguments 9 pages into the game, I have updated reads. We're having a slapfight over a damn page 2 read in which

'scummy' just means 'more scummy in the less than 10 posts they've made than everyone else is'.

⁶

fuck.

Edit: Whatever, keeping this post for posterity.

1

goes against 6th point

2

why play along such a shit scumhunting technique? was there opportunity to somehow trap Frogger? no one else bothered

3

goes against 4th point. "0 scumhunting" != "not particularly townish scumhunting". 5th point also implies presence of scumhunting

4

^ see 3rd

5

you clearly did respond. and 38 comes before 42's "Frogger why no vote? Also, reads?". i can't find any call to scumhunt prior that

6

^ see 1st

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: Lapsa
VOTE: CB

got stuff to do but there's that, i'll keep my word

will get back to this game tonight

[Lapsa]

UNVOTE: Lapsa
VOTE: CB

got stuff to do but there's that, i'll keep my word

will get back to this game tonight

fyi: that's too late for me

and please don't do 'will post tonight' fillers anymore. hate them

[Mathdino]

i perceive your last post to be the first one that shows me that you're invested in putting effort into this game

[toolenduso]

OK I'm going to do some more directed work here in a bit, but there were a couple things I wanted to highlight from my catching up first.

What did you make of these posts where Tool says there are scum on your wagon because you look scummy? If he thinks Lapsa is town, it might make sense for him to think scum is on Lapsa's wagon, but I can't understand why he threw you in there too.

Spoiler: Tool posts

I've had to break up my catching up reading today while doing other stuff so I can't remember all the points about Math atm but I remember thinking that some of them made sense.

I'm also thinking that between the wagons on Math and Lapsa there's probably scum somewhere. Want to start with Lapsa since I feel more like he's town.

Yes, I remember thinking that some of the points about Math looking scummy made sense. Which is not, incidentally, the same as saying "Math is scum."

Which is why it is still a good idea to consider the possibility of there being scum voting for Math.

"There is probably scum on one of these two wagons" is clearly not the same as "there is definitely scum on the Math wagon."

I voted Lapsa for acting anti-town and (I didn't say this at the time) to pressure him into being active and people started telling me that pressure votes are useless if you actually say they're for pressure. I didn't particularly care if he's ALWAYS anti-town because if that's how he acts 100% of the time,

he still has a 24% chance of being scum this game

AND I really don't want him to act that way this game.

I'm at a loss in coming up for a town!Mathdino motivation for making such a strong declarative statement regarding the chances of a random slot being scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mathdino

Shinobi is right, this is a nitpicky and shallow reason for voting somebody. Which is suspicious.

I voted Lapsa for acting anti-town and (I didn't say this at the time) to pressure him into being active and people started telling me that pressure votes are useless if you actually say they're for pressure. I didn't particularly care if he's ALWAYS anti-town because if that's how he acts 100% of the time,

he still has a 24% chance of being scum this game

AND I really don't want him to act that way this game.

I'm at a loss in coming up for a town!Mathdino motivation for making such a strong declarative statement regarding the chances of a random slot being scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mathdino

Yo cthulhu let's talk about fractions.

What's 3/12 if you make a typo and put 4s instead of 5s?

Yo let's talk about uninformed majorities. How do you know there are three scum?

I can see making that assumption, but that's a pretty strong declaration if it's based on such an assumption.

Why didn't you ask about the number of scum players before if you weren't sure how many there were?

Difference is that I'm not going to ask that anyone alter their writing style for this game, and I don't think any comprehensible writing style can be considered anti-town. I didn't vote him because I thought he was pushing an agenda, or because he was being anti-town, I voted him for weirding me out.
Lapsa I voted for being anti-town, thus I don't really care if he's usually anti-town, I want him to stop active lurking so I can read him.

So one guy posts in a weird way and you research him to see if it's normally weird, decide it isn't, and vote him.
The other guy posts in a weird way and you decide not to research him because he's just anti-town and it bugs you.

This is the main point I remember agreeing with about Math.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

@toolenduso - go back and read my catch-up post. It's far from my only reason for voting Mathdino.

[toolenduso]

OK I'll get to that after this other stuff.

[toolenduso]

I know I'm town, anyone reading my statement except Lapsa knows or "knows" they're town.

I know other stuff was said but that annoyed me most and am on phone so I'll get back to this.

Edit: Why would there not be 3 scum?

Because in addition to 10:3 being a thing, 9:4, 9:3;1, and 9:2:2 are things as well. Focusing on the former has the appearance of you having knowledge of the makeup of the scum team. IOW, it has the appearance of a scumslip.

Just saw this. And I'll take your word for it, though I don't think I've seen a mini normal yet that was anything other than 10:3.

[toolenduso]

@toolenduso - go back and read my catch-up post. It's far from my only reason for voting Mathdino.

Got it. It's not the only reason for voting Mathdino.

But it's still nitpicking and therefore looks like confirmation bias.

[Shinobi]

@toolenduso - go back and read my catch-up post. It's far from my only reason for voting Mathdino.

Got it. It's not the only reason for voting Mathdino.

But it's still nitpicking and therefore looks like confirmation bias.

I thought about it coming home from work and thought exactly this thing.

[Cthulhu Dreaming]

@toolenduso - go back and read my catch-up post. It's far from my only reason for voting Mathdino.

Got it. It's not the only reason for voting Mathdino.

But it's still nitpicking and therefore looks like confirmation bias.

...

Yeah, could be. I'll take that under advisement. I can sometimes be pedantic.

[Aeronaut]

VC 1.4

VoteCount 1.4

Mathdino

-

Thor665, BlueBloodedToffee, abuse, Cthulhu Dreaming, Lapsa

(L-2)

toolenduso

-

texcat

(L-6)

CB -

Mathdino

(L-6)

Cthulhu Dreaming -

Thor665 -

Shinobi -

texcat -

Plotinus

-

Shinobi, CB, Fro99er

(L-4)

Fro99er

-

BlueBloodedToffee -

abuse

-

Zoronos

(L-6)

Lapsa

-

Plotinus

(L-6)

Zoronos

-

Not Voting

-

toolenduso

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2015-06-28 23:00:32)

Fro99er is V/LA until the 18th (Thursday)

[texcat]

"There is probably scum on one of these two wagons" is clearly not the same as "there is definitely scum on the Math wagon."

I am not disagreeing. But if you think Math is scum, his wagon seems like a very odd place to start the search for scum.

And BTW those sorts of statements drive me nutso. "Scum on one of those two wagons" seems like a very easy way for scum to direct attention away from themselves, particularly at this early no flip stage.

[Fro99er]

"Scum on one of those two wagons" seems like a very easy way for scum to direct attention away from themselves, particularly at this early no flip stage.

This. You found his motivation for stating that.

Baaaaa.

VOTE: Toolenduso

[toolenduso]

Spoiler: Lapsa wagon: abuse, plot, math, frogger

-abuse's reason for voting Lapsa: #12. RVS.
-abuse's reason for switching vote to zoronos: #155. OMGUS, kinda. Also because I pointed out that his vote was still on Lapsa.

-plot's reason for voting lapsa: #61/70. Fluffposting and early unforced VT claim being counterintuitive to town play.

-math's reason for voting lapsa: #90. Because Lapsa was posting without really contributing.

-frogger's reason for voting lapsa: #17. RVS, and also because Lapsa was one of the last to confirm. Switches to me, then back to Lapsa again in #94 for fluffposting.
-frogger's reason for switching vote to me/Math: Switches to me in #54 because I'm a backup. Switches to Math in #134 because he thinks Math's voting reasons were shallow and because he thinks Lapsa's pulling a gambit.

Thoughts: Math and frogger both kind of followed plot's thoughts on Lapsa. Not that Lapsa's fluffposting was hard to spot otherwise. Math made pretty clear that he was more annoyed with Lapsa's play than anything, I don't know if I really got the impression that Math thought Lapsa was scum. Frogger's definitely looks the worst of the votes on Lapsa just because it came later (the revote, not the RVS), as well as his reasons for switching to me. Which is to say, I can't really find them. I know he's tried to explain this more later in the game so I'll have to go dig those up. But the fact that Frogger was also on the math wagon makes me raise an eyebrow.

Spoiler: Math wagon: Thor, frogger, BBT (also CD, but later)

-Thor's reason for voting math: #6. RVS at first, then he doesn't like Math's push on frogger, then he doesn't like Math doing meta on frogger but not lapsa.

-frog's reason for voting math: #134, because he thinks Math's voting reasons were shallow.

-BBT's reason for voting math: RVS at first, but then in earnest in #201, with reasoning given in #192. Reasoning appears to be Math's shallow reasoning for voting for tex and lapsa, as well as possibly feeling like Math was talking to BBT like Math knew BBT was town.

-CD: #284. For math's page one frogger vote and the switch to tex as well as for assigning a probability to a person's chances of being scum.

Thoughts: No reason to suspect anything from Thor's vote, but I wouldn't expect him to obvscum it up anyway. I have a thing I want to test with thor this game, but this vote lends no evidence. Frogger's reasons for voting math are fine, but the circumstances are similar to his switch from Lapsa to me. That is, when he switched his vote to me, it was because he didn't have a reason to vote for Lapsa anymore (and the original reason, that Lapsa was last to confirm, was shallow anyway). Then, when he switched his vote from Lapsa to math, it was basically because I and at least one other person pointed out that Lapsa was pretty much lynchbait. Frogger follows this logic. BBT's vote is fine, I think. CD's reasons are nothing new by the time he lays down his vote.

Spoiler: Plot wagon: CD, Shinobi, CB

-CD's reason for voting plot: #10, RVS. Then later because plot pointed out lapsa's alleged vt crumb. Switches to math (see above) in #284.

-Shinobi's reason for voting plot: #65 for unexplained scumread on lapsa and non-opinion on frogger.

-CB's reason for voting plot: #147 (first post) for non-opinion on frogger and for voting lapsa for the vt crumb thing.

Thoughts: CD's reasons are kinda weak, which is a pattern I see in his ISO. Shinobi's reasons are fine. CB's reasons are pretty much the same as other people's. I also found myself getting scummy vibes from CB's catch-up post where he voted for plot, not only because the reasoning was borrowed but because I've used catch-up posts many a time like that as scum as an organizational tool -- basically to force myself to develop genuine reads. I've also done it as town, so it's not the strongest thing in the world. It's just the gut feeling I got.

Not ready to vote yet. Next I'm going to take a little tour through Frog and Math's ISOs.

[toolenduso]

"There is probably scum on one of these two wagons" is clearly not the same as "there is definitely scum on the Math wagon."

I am not disagreeing. But if you think Math is scum, his wagon seems like a very odd place to start the search for scum.

OK, so there are a couple things wrong with this. One, I defy you to find the place in my ISO where I ever said that I thought Math was scum.

Two, you're talking about things I said a while ago like I'm still sticking to them.

Specifically, you're pretending like I came out and said that I thought Math was scum, and that I've been trying to push Math while not taking a stance on it or something. So let me clear this up for you so we're on the same page:

-At the beginning of the game, I found myself agreeing with Math a lot. That gave me general good gut vibes. I sheeped Math on an early wagon that I thought was a good way to get the game out of RVS.
-People started to push Math and I realized that some of their points made sense. I noticed that there had been a wagon on Math and thought that if I analyzed both hers and Lapsa's wagons, it could be both a novel and fun way for me to look for scum.
-After rereading some of the arguments about math and getting a better (although admittedly limited) feel for his ISO, now I'm starting to get suspicious.
-I still don't have very strong reads. So analyzing a wagon, even if it's on a player I have my doubts about, is a good idea. It's a way to get my head into this game some more.

And BTW those sorts of statements drive me nutso. "Scum on one of those two wagons" seems like a very easy way for scum to direct attention away from themselves, particularly at this early no flip stage.

No, but seriously. The only thing I can say is that that's not what I was doing. I mean...I'm trying to scumhunt over here. So if you think my scumhunting is actually me trying to divert attention away from myself then...OK, I guess. You think that.

I'm going to try not to waste too much time on this because I would hope that other players don't misunderstood me the way that you have. If they do, then I guess I have to start working on writing more clearly. But I'm, uh, going to get back to trying to find scum now.

[Shinobi]

@Tool: I elaborated on my reasoning behind voting plot more recently, ftr.

[texcat]

Thinking Zoro is town. The kinds of stuff he's focusing on just seems too...narrow, I guess, for scum to focus on. Like, getting down into wording and other nitpicky stuff, but for players he's not even scumreading. So what I see there is a personality trait shining through -- a desire to have very clear communication and frustration whenever there appears to be miscommunication -- that I think he would be more self-conscious of as scum.

Not that I haven't seen scum deliberately focus on stuff like that as a way of cluttering up games before. But this just doesn't feel like that to me.

I've had to break up my catching up reading today while doing other stuff so I can't remember all the points about Math atm but I remember thinking that some of them made sense.

I'm also thinking that between the wagons on Math and Lapsa there's probably scum somewhere. Want to start with Lapsa since I feel more like he's town.

This is the original post that drew my attention. You are correct; you don't say that you think Math is scum, but you say that other people who think he is scum have good points that made sense. And in the next sentence, you say that those same people who think Math is scum and make good sense are a good spot to start looking for scum.

[toolenduso]

Yes. Because I don't want to eliminate a possibility based on a hunch. I don't

know

any of this stuff for certain, and I've been wrong before, so why would I take a vague suspicion of math -- based on posts I can't even recall the details of at the time of my posting #227 -- and unequivocally eliminate the possibility that there is scum on math's wagon?

Are the thoughts at odd with each other? Yes. Is there a way for me to play the game without doubting myself? No.

[toolenduso]

Spoiler: Frogger's voting arc

-RVS vote on Lapsa. Backs it up later by saying that he actually kind of had a reason to vote Lapsa, which is that he was the last to confirm. Which, you know, is OK for an RVS vote. But then he goes through this song and dance of checking to see when everybody last posted before confirming, which just...seems a little unnecessary. Why not just say "yeah that was just an excuse to put my vote somewhere" and leave it at that? Kind of looks like he was afraid his reasoning would look arbitrary so he tried to add some meaning to it.
-Switches to me in #54 because he found out Lapsa wasn't posting elsewhere before he confirmed. Doesn't really provide a reason except to say that I'm his next scum read on the list.
-Votes Lapsa again in #94, this time for his fluffposting. At this point that's a sheep. Note that in #140 he criticizes math for pushing what seems like a policy lynch on Lapsa, despite math having pretty much the same reasoning for voting Lapsa that Frogger used in #94.
-Hops off the Lapsa wagon in #134 after a couple of people have started to float the idea that Lapsa wouldn't act this way if he was scum. That's the same reasoning Frog uses. Votes for Math. Reasoning for the Math vote is fine.
-Votes for Plotinus in #280. Uses a lot of the reasoning CB did.
-Votes for me in #338. Again, pure sheepery. Comes not long after being criticized for his plotinus vote.

Spoiler: Math's voting arc

-Votes Frogger in RVS. Gives actual reasons in #18, which have now been tread and re-tread a thousand times.
-Unvotes Frogger in #57 after a lot of criticism. He doesn't say that people have convinced him, but rather says that Frogger's posting has looked more towny. Proceeds to call Frogger highly town ever since.
-Votes texcat in #58 with adjectives and not examples. Which makes it look like a read Math felt he had to make because he didn't want to attract attention for not having a vote anywhere. Says that tex is a scumread.
-In his next post, #90, he votes for Lapsa and FoS's abuse. PL/fluffposting reasons. Doesn't say anything about tex.
-Votes for CB in #326 after lots and lots of criticism about Lapsa.

So here I see two players with multiple red flags in their voting patterns. Frogger consistently sheeps and Math has switched his vote after pressure a couple times.

The problem is that they would have had to have a bussing design right out of the gate in order to be partners, and I'm not sure I've ever seen scum do that before. I've seen them plan pre-game to bus later on and then do that, or add a conditional onto it like I'll bus you if you start to get a bunch of votes, but...I guess I just feel like the earliness of this makes it less likely.

I also have to filter this through the wagon analysis and weigh the conclusions.

[Fro99er]

-RVS vote on Lapsa. Backs it up later by saying that he actually kind of had a reason to vote Lapsa, which is that he was the last to confirm. Which, you know, is OK for an RVS vote. But then he goes through this song and dance of checking to see when everybody last posted before confirming, which just...seems a little unnecessary. Why not just say "yeah that was just an excuse to put my vote somewhere" and leave it at that? Kind of looks like he was afraid his reasoning would look arbitrary so he tried to add some meaning to it.
-Switches to me in #54 because he found out Lapsa wasn't posting elsewhere before he confirmed. Doesn't really provide a reason except to say that I'm his next scum read on the list.
-Votes Lapsa again in #94, this time for his fluffposting. At this point that's a sheep. Note that in #140 he criticizes math for pushing what seems like a policy lynch on Lapsa, despite math having pretty much the same reasoning for voting Lapsa that Frogger used in #94.
-Hops off the Lapsa wagon in #134 after a couple of people have started to float the idea that Lapsa wouldn't act this way if he was scum. That's the same reasoning Frog uses. Votes for Math. Reasoning for the Math vote is fine.
-Votes for Plotinus in #280. Uses a lot of the reasoning CB did.
-Votes for me in #338. Again, pure sheepery. Comes not long after being criticized for his plotinus vote.

So I have to START every wagon?

My vote on Math was original. I also provided different perspective that CB did not on Plot, despite you claiming I didn't (actually, some of the reasons CB used were reasons I had pointed out about plot even sooner!). My Lapsa RVS vote was fine. My second round of Lapsa voting was wagon building, yes. Also, for my first vote on you, see posts 38 and 40 why I scumread you. I absolutely sheeped my second vote on you with tex, and acknowledged it with a "Baaaaa", you know, that sound that sheep make...

FFS...am I supposed to start EVERY wagon?

What wagons have you started and pushed, besides tex (which is getting no traction).

[Fro99er]

Oh wait...you never even started a tex wagon. My bad. You haven't even used your vote yet. TRY USING YOUR VOTE. VOTE ME IF YOU NEED TO.

[Fro99er]

(and by yet, I mean other than your vote of me for my RVS post).

[Lapsa]

i perceive your last post to be the first one that shows me that you're invested in putting effort into this game

which was #327

cool scumhunting, but ignores fact that coloring alone for #325 took me like half an hour

[Lapsa]

I also found myself getting scummy vibes from CB's catch-up post where he voted for plot

seconded

What I *do* find strange though, is that that's the only thing you choose to hang a read on.

-CB's reason for voting plot: #147 (first post) for non-opinion on frogger and for voting lapsa for the vt crumb thing.

Also Lapsa seems more like a troll looking at it. If there is a town role with KP he is a pretty good target.
If he is town, the pushes on him give us little information since he is just lynch bait

right now

. If he is mafia, I wouldn't put it past mafia to bust him.

that's my problem, Ctulhu.

CB shouldn't call my ice cream flavor choice as little informative, call vighit on me yet base his vote because of it at the same time

unless he can show how my presence in this game has degradated to cheap lynch bait till #263 ofc