Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[Mathdino]

Update: Lapsa is now very squarely in my strong townreads list, consisting of {Zor, Plot, Frogger, Lapsa}.

[toolenduso]

So I have to START every wagon?

No, but a pattern of sheeping is suspicious. There are also other parts of your ISO that show what I would call a desire to please people. There's the stuff about wanting to townread plotinus, and there's the timing of your switch from Plotinus to me, which happened right after Thor criticized your Plotinus read, and there's the general agreement with the points about Lapsa looking towny despite earlier thinking that he was scum for like the exact same reasons...

Scum want to make other players like them/think they're town. I see this in your voting and posting.

My vote on Math was original.

Granted.

I also provided different perspective that CB did not on Plot, despite you claiming I didn't (actually, some of the reasons CB used were reasons I had pointed out about plot even sooner!).

My apologies, I didn't see that you had pointed out things about plot that CB then used. I'll take your word for it, because it kinda misses the point.

The point being that I still see you using other player's arguments multiple times as partial or whole justification for your votes. Which can reflect: A) Desire to get on the good side of the players you're following, B) Pre-planning to avoid responsibility for those arguments in the future, C) Difficulty developing fake reads, or D) All of the above.

My Lapsa RVS vote was fine.

Granted.

My second round of Lapsa voting was wagon building, yes.

Okely dokely then.

Also, for my first vote on you, see posts 38 and 40 why I scumread you.

I guess I let my message get a little bit garbled by saying that you seemed to be voting me mainly as a backup. My main point there was that you didn't seem to have very strong reasons for voting me, but voted me anyway instead of looking elsewhere. You fell back on a comfortable position, and I can see you taking that route (as opposed to looking elsewhere) because you didn't want to draw suspicion for not having your vote anywhere.

It seemed to be more driven by wanting to unvote Lapsa than by wanting to vote for me, is what I'm saying. And I find the motivation behind that to be suspect.

I absolutely sheeped my second vote on you with tex, and acknowledged it with a "Baaaaa", you know, that sound that sheep make...

Yep.

[texcat]

seems like Abelian group to me

You must be kidding. The nerd factor here just went off the charts.

[toolenduso]

Want to look into tex, CD, CB and abuse's ISOs before voting.

[texcat]

This is texcat's ISO after her first vote and before my original vote on her.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: toolenduso

Sheep of Mathdino, followed by a backing off of his vote, followed by defensiveness.

My problem with this is the double IIOA/misrep. What texcat describes as sheeping -> backing off -> defenciveness, I could describe as just having a different view on Frogger than mine but a similar enough one to vote him. One of the easiest things scum can do early on is go after the wagons or 'sheeping' votes. Not a fan.

Yeah, I hadn't looked at the meta when I voted him. It was the tone of the post. After looking at it the meta part isn't so convincing to me, but hey it's page one.

I would call this a backing off from your vote.

This is what I meant when I said her argument was stretchy. When asked to actually elaborate on her argument she quoted what I think is just a normal looking post with 0 analysis.

Thor clarified somewhat in 28 that his 26 was @ Tool.

Platinus, That's the 2nd time you've mentioned your ability to read Frogger. What's up with that? Is there anybody else you think you can sort?

And then lastly the Plotinus question really messed with me. One of the biggest scum tells I use is asking bad questions that don't really move the game forward but make it look like you're keeping the discussion going and asking specific and pointed questions. This in particular doesn't really show much of a desire to sort Plotinus or Frogger, seems more like just going around asking "wtf are you doing".

63, texcat's response to my vote post, I personally find unsatisfying. And looking at the rest of her ISO, I'm not seeing anything that would override my original read on her. The tool push has a TON of confirmation bias and

she's still provided ZERO reads on anyone except tool.

Currently would be into a texcat/BBT/CB scumteam actually. Willing to vote texcat or CB.

Wow. Talk about stretchy. This is the case you've been working on for days???? This is the definition of a sheep vote:

Agreed, good first wagon.

VOTE: Fro99er

And here is Tool agreeing with the backing off part.

Yeah, I hadn't looked at the meta when I voted him. It was the tone of the post. After looking at it the meta part isn't so convincing to me, but hey it's page one.

I would call this a backing off from your vote.

Oh I see what you mean. I mean yeah I did back off a little because I hadn't read the meta and then I did. As for my reactions being defensive I don't really see that but OK.

I didn't argue with Tool about the defensiveness. I agree with his "but OK".

I explained the reason for my Plotinus questions here. Not sure what you found "unsatisfying" or why you think I wasn't trying to "move the game forward".

Mathdino,

My question to Plotinus was re these two posts which said almost the same thing. I was wondering why he said the same thing twice, especially when he didn't have much else to say. It looked like it might be a soft defense of Frogger. I did miss your direct question to him in 42.

Plus I am always skeptical when someone claims to be able to sort or read someone else. I've found that at least half of the time they are wrong.

If fro99er is scum, it’s probably his first time so it’ll be obvious soon enough, I think.

I don’t know fro99er well enough yet to have a serious read yet. This is our first game together, but we’ve spectated a few of each other’s games and then we finally had a conversation recently. I know that usually he’s pretty obvtown so given time he’ll be easy enough to sort.

[Lapsa]

@CD: Will explain when I have more time.

@Lapsa:
7. That's probably because that statement is precisely what I believe. If Thor and I are unwilling to agree on that, sure, but I feel I've more than adequately explained WHY I believe that.
8. I don't really understand what you're trying to say here, sorry.
9. I don't really understand again, but going off of what I think you're saying: I wasn't afraid that you always pull anti-town shit in other games because regardless of your alignment I wanted you to stop. You can actually see in my texcat vote way back that I was asking you to give thoughts, and you responded without thoughts, so I voted you. Pressure voting, not lynch voting.

Also don't understand the frozen in RVS thing.

Sorry.

no wonder you appear confused - trying to defend yourself without ever considering that you might appear scum

Update: Lapsa is now very squarely in my strong townreads list, consisting of {Zor, Plot, Frogger, Lapsa}.

that's also too late - too mainstream

[Mathdino]

no wonder you appear confused - trying to defend yourself without ever considering that you might appear scum

Why would I be concerned about appearing scum? I'm trying to answer your concerns as best I can and move on to my own scum hunting.

@texcat: You still have yet to give ANY reads other than tool even after I said so twice. That's what's most concerning about the latter half of your ISO.

/phoneposting

[Zoronos]

So, previously you had a 'null towniah' (I assuming that meant null townish?) read on CB. Has that changed? Why, if so?

Secondary question - Who are your other scum reads, besides MathDino?

Yeah, that's proximity of the 'a' and 's' characters combined with fat fingers.

No, my read on CB hasn't changed.

TBF, I don't have any other real strong scum reads - I'm still wary of Plotinus, though.

Can you tell me why you're wary of Plotinus?
Do you have any more thoughts on MathDino? Your case on him was in your opening post. Any elaboration? Basically, (other than the PL vote on Lapsa) the things you mentioned in your opening post about Dino were in the first three pages of the game. I'm looking to see what in the last 14 pages has changed your thinking, reinforced it, etc.

[Zoronos]

To clarify, I was townreading CD's jump onto me for the 3 scum assumption since in the past it's usually been town that jump onto people who do that more often than scum.

I want to come back to this statement later.

[Aeronaut]

VC 1.5

VoteCount 1.5

Mathdino

-

Thor665, BlueBloodedToffee, abuse, Cthulhu Dreaming, Lapsa

(L-2)

toolenduso

-

texcat, Fro99er

(L-5)

CB -

Mathdino

(L-6)

Cthulhu Dreaming -

Thor665 -

Shinobi -

texcat -

Plotinus

-

Shinobi, CB

(L-5)

Fro99er

-

BlueBloodedToffee -

abuse

-

Zoronos

(L-6)

Lapsa

-

Plotinus

(L-6)

Zoronos

-

Not Voting

-

toolenduso

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2015-06-28 23:00:32)

Fro99er is V/LA until the 18th (Thursday)

[Fro99er]

@Mod: I am officially on V/LA from Monday through Thursday (6/18) because of all day work meetings but I will try to respond in the evenings anyway. Except Tuesday evening. USA women's world cup (GO USA!)

So apparently I got out of my Monday and Tuesday meetings. Still have work, but should be able to be a bit more active than planned. Wed/Thurs will still be tough to be active.

Expect low activity until Thurs eve.

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[CB]

@CB - Okay, I can agree with you on the likely skim and the derp defense lacking sense and showing lack of reading. But I fail to see where it becomes an even toss up between defense or white-knight for points.
At the point in time he came into the debate, it wasn't really like Mathdino was in major danger - Plotnius was the leading wagon at the time (for reasons I still can't explain, and he remains a top wagon even though I'm still at a loss on the issue there) But, in any case, to my mind the concept of a town defense kind of implies that you need the town to flip to get the points, and at that point it was an early wagon, and didn't have a lot of oomph (it was a 1 vote wagon and he was snarking at the second vote). You would let that at least build up to a third vote before donning your armor, yeah? That's why it looks more like blind town or scum defense of buddy to me.

Thoughts?

Mafia has more reason to defend a town then just get town cred at the flip. It usually nets them a town read making it harder for them to get lynched and sets up a false associative if they ever get lynched.

This is how I would compare the two players:

For Math I didn't like his early game play and he seems like he is trying hard to appease or act confused about the pressure against him which indicate a very survival focused mindset but he has mentioned a lot of things related to getting miss lynched in the past and I think this could just be how he deals with pressure as town.

For Zoro it is not really what was said in defense it was more of the defense itself. Zoro lacks the paranoia I expect out of town he is too confident on his town reads on too little and his wording is overly friendly and looks like pocketing to me. The difference between Zoro and Math is I see a world in which Math is town a lot easier than I see world where Zoro is town.

[CB]

fro99er, you know i’m more of a mid-late game player. the game you happen to have spectated is probably the most embarassing day 1 i’ve ever had; I think I was scumread for every single post in that day 1 by various people. You’ve seen the larger patterns that I rely on for my reads. everything is noise right now. i can’t get a signal. you even know why it takes me so much more work to get reads.

Hey Frogger, you have inspected his games does this check out to you?

2) i haven’t played with you and i had said that already in the thraed

Not sure where I got the two games from.

[CB]

What a towny mindset

Also disliking Lapsa more for the apparent misrep on CB.

judge for yourself, Chtulhu:

Spoiler: prevote

Plotinus:
I really don't like 48. Seems really noncommittal.
I mean he is one of two people you have played with and you don't feel comfortable giving a read.
What are we going to wait for day 5 to hear a read on all the people you haven't played with?

Spoiler: postvote

@CB re: 147 why is trying to move the game along and get out of RVS scummy? If he trying to move out of RVS and into the “pointless bickering about mafia theory” stage I’d agree with you but to me his post looked more like “let’s skip RVS and bickering about theory and move on to the let’s have serious reads now part here i’ll start”. Taking initiative is good.

Because it didn't feel like lets move the game foward allow me to apply pressure and get some reads from the reactions. It felt more like he was announcing he was going to end RVS and put out weak read to appear like he is moving the game forward.

You are right that I was saying fro99er’s towniness or lack there of would be obvious to everyone, not just me. You are understanding my words correctly. Now look for motivation behind my words and what wincon those words are benefitting. Hint: it’s the wincon that wants to reduce mislynches, not keep the mislynch pool as full as possible.

I still don't understand how you saying that had any effect on the game state.

You make a lot of pushes in this wall, against mathdino, me, lapsa, abuse, and zoro. I’m not really sure why you voted me at the end of it, because the parts directed at me didn’t seem stronger than the parts directed at anyone else. (huh, mathdino counted 6. now i’m wondering who i missed). Anyway, seconding the request for a readslist from you.

This is tentative as I have only skimmed the last couple of pages though. I will try to go through ISO tonight:
Town: Frogger, Texcat
Scum Lean: Math, Abuse
Scum: Plot, Zoro

CB: I didn’t like his push on me and it felt like a misrep. I think CB is lynchhunting not scum hunting. His pushes on other people seem like low hanging fruit.

Why are the people I pushed on low hanging fruit?

seems really noncommittal to me

How?

[CB]

CB shouldn't call my ice cream flavor choice as little informative, call vighit on me yet base his vote because of it at the same time

unless he can show how my presence in this game has degradated to cheap lynch bait till #263 ofc

Your shit post inducing a scummy push don't get you town points.

People don't need to change their posting for me to reevaluate on them.

[CB]

CB shouldn't call my ice cream flavor choice as little informative, call vighit on me yet base his vote because of it at the same time

unless he can show how my presence in this game has degradated to cheap lynch bait till #263 ofc

Your shit post inducing a scummy push don't get you town points.

People don't need to change their posting for me to reevaluate on them.

Fluff post*, That read kind of BM

----------------

Update: Lapsa is now very squarely in my strong townreads list, consisting of {Zor, Plot, Frogger, Lapsa}.

I understand he is contributing now but why the strong townread?

[Lapsa]

no wonder you appear confused - trying to defend yourself without ever considering that you might appear scum

Why would I be concerned about appearing scum? I'm trying to answer your concerns as best I can and move on to my own scum hunting.
/phoneposting

giving out strong townread on me without properly understanding me doesn't bother you?

[abuse]

A little lost currently after initial skim of the last few pages.

I agree that Mathdino's wagon feels a bit off.
Some people's thinking/acting seems off aswell.
I hope I'll have a moment today to look into it more closely.

@Thor, why the full support of a counterwagon? This concerns me quite a bit.
Where is BBT.
CB seems off, but not sure if it's because he's playing several games at once and doesn't pay enough attention here, or if he's scum.
Zoro's tone of posting has changed completely from the impression i got from him at the beginning. At first he gave the aura of self confidence, and was pushing stuff, attacking people, now he looks more like a lapdog. Not sure what would make it happen. Also vote is still on me, even though he hasn't said anything to or about me in like 10 pages.

tool and tex kinda fall into the background for me a bit, i'll look into them more in a bit too.

@Shinobi, I don't want to say what I learned from that game, but I want to believe that I can read you somewhat decently.

P.S. will be V/LA starting from friday to wednesday. (national drinking days in my country.)

[abuse]

Thor, what do you think about Lapsa ?
I can't seem to find your stance on him anywhere.

[abuse]

texcat, what do you think about literally ANYONE except tool ?

[Lapsa]

CB shouldn't call my ice cream flavor choice as little informative, call vighit on me yet base his vote because of it at the same time

unless he can show how my presence in this game has degradated to cheap lynch bait till #263 ofc

Your shit post inducing a scummy push don't get you town points.

People don't need to change their posting for me to reevaluate on them.

i don't really need your town points - they won't change the fact that your vote is based on this induced scummy push

and that doesn't add up with me being completely useless

[Lapsa]

A little lost currently after initial skim of the last few pages.

@Thor, why the full support of a counterwagon? This concerns me quite a bit.

signing up?

be sure to read thoroughly. things have changed quite a bit. not doing so might cost you dearly

[abuse]

what do you mean by "signing up" ?

[abuse]

Went through tool's ISO.
His mindset seems logical. I don't think I'd be up for his lynch right now, there is not enough info on him to make a confident vote.
The only real concern is he seems to not be in a rush to learn stuff about other people. Like, at all.

[Lapsa]

what do you mean by "signing up" ?

willingly initiating wagon on yourself so there would be counterwagon to Dino's