Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #1500 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:38 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Also, Tammy, please stop stealing my thoughts (#1490) :(

I'm caught up but I am still in the position where I don't feel like I have much else to say and it's annoying because I feel the need to do SOMETHING but I don't know what. I'm waiting to see what Soft-spoken has to say in response to pieguyn's case and to see what G+G have when they fully catch up with this game (though hito's posts are a nice start).

Nati, have you and Muffin discussed my slot in the recent past?
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Post Post #1501 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:42 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

In post 1380, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:Something that just occured to me while reading the latest Gold Saucer vs. sangres stuff: so we know that trees that get mislynched get to stick around forever basically unless they get doused/ignited (a process that takes at least two day phases to do)...my question is how do you guys expect this to inform the scum strategy in this game? I have some theories about it but I'd like to see what all of you think first.

As a hint for what I think: we might be approaching this game the wrong way.

Oh, I just remembered this. The reason why I brought this up is that I was thinking about whether scum would really push strong town slots like mine/sangres/GS, etc. The drawback for scum is that these slots would be confirmed town if they flip and they'd have to deal with their presence for pretty much the rest of the game. Basically, I'm seeing some potentially serious blowback.

On the other hand, there really aren't many mislynch options available for scum so they gotta go after SOMETHING. I did posit to Regfan a while back that scum might be looking to go after us since we're pretty low on people's town totem poles / there seems to be a bit of paranoia on our slot coming from some circles.

tl;dr - I am a bit conflicted in evaluating the last scumbag's mentality when it comes to strategy.
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Post Post #1502 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:49 am

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

In post 1500, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:Also, Tammy, please stop stealing my thoughts (#1490) :(

I'm caught up but I am still in the position where I don't feel like I have much else to say and it's annoying because I feel the need to do SOMETHING but I don't know what. I'm waiting to see what Soft-spoken has to say in response to pieguyn's case and to see what G+G have when they fully catch up with this game (though hito's posts are a nice start).

Nati, have you and Muffin discussed my slot in the recent past?


If you're looking for something to do, you can give me your thoughts on Drake (especially as it pertains to my observations on him) since you have the whole game as context.
I was only looking at the trees, not the forest, and the trees were bad. The forest was also bad.

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Post Post #1503 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:54 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Drake's been in my (and I think Regfan's PoE pool) pretty much most of the game. I agree with a lot of the stuff you said about Drake's play surrounding Yuriko and have pointed out some of the same things to Regfan in the past. There's also some other stuff I've been thinking that I want to keep under wraps until Nati answers my question. BUT, I remember some of the stuff Yuriko saying pointing towards against them being scumbuddies (the reaction to the PGO claim most notably).

The thing is that I am now having the problem where Everyone Is Town.
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Post Post #1504 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:42 am

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

if there is no day chat for scum this gets easier

Do we know if scum have daytalk or not?
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Post Post #1505 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:43 am

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

It's 7 am and since catching up on 10 pages takes literally 1 hour I am going to do it on a computer so maybe 12h later when I am home

Also, hito is already divine from what he helped post overnight


Seems like I can be natural in the thread? OK
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Post Post #1506 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:47 am

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

tbh hito offered a really fresh new perspective in that long post that I didn't really notice on a larger scale. Like he showed me the forest for the trees WOW (I was only looking at the trees not the forest) and the trees were bad. The forest, was also bad

And I am pretty convinced to get rbd

From hito's case

Even though I only have 20 pages caught up

tl;dr hito highlighted muffina's play that mirrored mine in the nightless re: bus-no-bus

I didn't see it and he didn't post it in the hydra pt and he just posted it here and I'm like WOW

Or maybe it's just 7am and I'm woozy

Whatever

VOTE: rbd
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Post Post #1507 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:56 am

Post by pieguyn »

I don't agree with hito's case on RBD, will explain why when I'm not busy doing other stuff on site.
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Post Post #1508 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:10 pm

Post by sangres »

GG I'd really like for you guys to get caught up enough to opine about S-s.
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Post Post #1509 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:40 pm

Post by Gold Saucer »

Gonna put this off till tomorrow just cause i had a shit day. Will read up then.

-b
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Post Post #1510 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:56 pm

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

In post 1506, Gyre and Gimble wrote:tbh hito offered a really fresh new perspective in that long post that I didn't really notice on a larger scale. Like he showed me the forest for the trees WOW (I was only looking at the trees not the forest) and the trees were bad. The forest, was also bad


Hello, new sig.

Scum don't have daytalk.

sangres wrote:GG I'd really like for you guys to get caught up enough to opine about S-s.


What from s-s are you waiting for us to hit?
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Post Post #1511 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:01 pm

Post by sangres »

Mostly, what your fresh eyes think about Pieguy's case on S-s.
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Post Post #1512 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 2:25 pm

Post by Phenenas »

Vote Count 2.2


Rancid Broderick Drake - 2 (Soft-spoken, Gyre and Gimble) L-3
Gyre and Gimble - 1 (BBmolla) L-4
Soft-spoken - 1 (pieguyn) L-4

Not Voting: Gentlemen Bastards, Rancid Broderick Drake, Gold Saucer, sangres

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch. Deadline is July 12th, 7 PM CST. This is (expired on 2015-07-12 19:59:21) from now.
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Post Post #1513 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 2:45 pm

Post by Phenenas »

Soft-spoken has been prodded.
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Post Post #1514 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:54 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 1495, Gyre and Gimble wrote:Conflicted on Rancid Broderick Drake. He has a lot of hallmarks of bussing; early vote on the scumbuddy while the active pushes are outside of Yuriko. Notice how Drake is very passionately involved in the non-Yuriko arguements, while hardly mentioning Yuriko, and yet his vote doesn't move off of her all day.

I don't think it means anything that he didn't really do anything to "push" Yuriko. Yuriko hardly did anything at all this game. her initial posts were all setup spec and she didn't start doing anything substantive at all until very late in the game day. therefore, it makes sense he'd spend an amount of time pushing her proportional to the amount of posts she actually made. he spent the majority of his time commenting about the non-Yuriko arguments because they were a significantly larger part of the game than the posts Yuriko made and Yuriko had done fuck all for the majority of the game.

plus, Yuriko really wasn't a point of contention in that the majority of the game agreed she was scum. on the other hand you had, for instance, Nacho and GB both feeling really really strongly that I was town/scum, respectively. there was no need to be "passionately involved" in pushing Yuriko because hardly anyone saw a need to discuss it anyway; there was, on the other hand, a need to be involved in the non-Yuriko arguments because it was a major point of contention for the majority of the game day.

overall I don't think this is a big deal like you think it is.

In post 434, Rancid Broderick Drake wrote:
Also Jasmine is kkkkkkkk newb maybe? Someone talk to me, I want company until Tel wakes up tonight.


In post 462, Rancid Broderick Drake wrote:
In post 458, sangres wrote:
My strong-town list: goldsaucer, pieguy, gb
My nulltown list: bbmolla, quillford (nacho would put Yuriko here too, I think)

YES: Pieguy, you
EH SURE WHY NOT: Saucer, Yuriko(mostly for newbtells and stuff)
NO: demon regfan hydra thing(<3 empire)?

This will prob tighten up over interactions.


In post 465, Rancid Broderick Drake wrote:bork is showing me up consistently and I feel like reviewing so many games together has given us two a good ebb-flow to it, while Yuriko is only really there for newbtell stuff.

overall, the impression I got from how they played this was that Yuriko was primarily zmuffin's read. there was a huge amount of dissonance in between zmuffin and Nati basically this entire game. all 3 of these posts were Nati's posts and they never really had a chance to sync. I don't think there was any explicit scum motivation here, I think this was just her either having a conflicting read as town or faking a read that went opposite zmuffin's read as scum and playing accordingly.

In post 117, Rancid Broderick Drake wrote:
In post 106, pieguyn wrote:Yuriko might be town for .

What did you like about 102?

-Nati?

while this was a zmuffin post, I don't think this was him trying to "disarm the wagon". he had a scum read on Yuriko at this point and he wasn't sure on my alignment. I think questions like this are fairly typical when you want someone to elaborate further on a read - in his case, I posted something that he disagreed with and he saw it as an opportunity to discern my alignment/test his prior scum read on Yuriko. it's just him asking me about a read he disagreed with.

I also think if he was scum here he was just trying to emulate this as opposed to doing what you're saying here (i.e. he's either town or scum faking it). I don't think it was him searching for an excuse to get off the wagon or anything like that, I think it was more aimed to discern my alignment.

In post 1495, Gyre and Gimble wrote:"I will grant" is ten million percent not the verbiage you use when someone has a scumtell on the person YOU'RE VOTING.

this was another Nati post, and as I said before Nati didn't have a scum read on Yuriko - Nati thought she was more likely town. the fact that their slot was voting RBD doesn't change this.

in general, I think there's alternate motivations for most of what you're pointing out here that make as much sense with RBD-town as RBD-scum. I think in particular you're getting confused on the dynamics of their hydra and/or holding them to higher standards than I would with hydra dissonance. either way I don't agree their interactions look like scum/scum.
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Post Post #1515 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:00 pm

Post by pieguyn »

*voting Yuriko
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Post Post #1516 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:03 pm

Post by pieguyn »

I do have a read on MS btw, but I'm going to be mean and not say what it is until he finishes catching up bc I'm not sure about it.
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Post Post #1517 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:08 pm

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

will look at it in detail later but hydra dissonance to protect a partner/push mislynches is a very good scum tactic and I do it often
I was only looking at the trees, not the forest, and the trees were bad. The forest was also bad.

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Post Post #1518 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:12 pm

Post by pieguyn »

yeah, but I'm saying that it makes just as much sense coming from a potential town-Nati who happened to have those reads

and I didn't really think her Yuriko read was unreasonable

I don't deny that hydra dissonance can be OP as shit when you're scum (there was a really old game where Varsoon and I were scum and had "reads" that were completely opposite each other's), but I don't think that's specifically what they were going for (we didn't specifically go for it either, it just wound up happening that way). if they're scum here, I think she was just basing her reads on what she thought she'd have as town. it essentially comes down to if you think she was BS'ing her Yuriko read or not.
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Post Post #1519 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:37 pm

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

Pie guy do you remember doduo playing with their hydra heads and signing to obfuscate how they are being read? You were scum with them and I correctly caught them for it.

I am not thinking this is town behavior

phone posting so nup no catchup
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Post Post #1520 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:53 pm

Post by pieguyn »

I'm pretty sure that's not what they were actually doing, though? I legitimately could tell Marquis posts apart from notsci's that game and I for the most part thought all the arguments about them deliberately obfuscating hydra heads were really weak.

I'm not sure what to say beyond that bc, honestly, I _could_ see them using that kind of strategy as scum, but it's not something I'd want to lynch based off of bc 1. I'm really lenient when it comes to "hydra dissonance" and I'd expect if they're scum I'd be able to figure it out from the rest of their play; 2. it's not a strategy I think I'd likely go out of my way to do. essentially, I don't know why they wouldn't be able to have the reads they said they had as town.
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Post Post #1521 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:04 pm

Post by Gold Saucer »

I'm in the middle of doing stuff and just kinda following along, but muffin and nati signing each other's posts is a gimmick they do every single game they hydra together. It's not something special they're doing for this game.
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Post Post #1522 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:06 pm

Post by Gyre and Gimble »

I don't like it but I'll shut up ;-;
I was only looking at the trees, not the forest, and the trees were bad. The forest was also bad.

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Post Post #1523 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:16 pm

Post by Gold Saucer »

Please don't! We're in need of something from your slot and fresh perspectives.

I just figured I'd point out a null tell before it became a waste of time.
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Post Post #1524 (ISO) » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:37 pm

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Going to get dinner ect. sorted then come and catch up on this!

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