Newbie 1625: American Spring - Day 5 (DL - 08/31)

[JoramvanVugt]

Well ive claimed before, vanilla townie

I was actually hoping 1 person would have died making this game a bit clearer to me.

Id suggest waiting for aku to get on and let everyone claim. Ive been very suspicious of Thespio but im starting to doubt that he actually is the last scum

[Thespio]

Agree about mass-claiming hurting town - it's why I was very much against it. That doesn't make him scum though.

My problem now is; I have serious trouble believing Joram would kill me. Like, I was the only person defending him...

100 +10% agree. it makes no sense for him to kill you. Its well known i would push a joram lynch. Its why i find it odd you were attacked. Also, while it doesn't make him scum its quite odd. Really im just waiting on aku because i was 90%+ sure he was town... but now im not sure at all...

[Thespio]

Motivation for killing BBT:
Me-- Sets up Joram Lynch
Joram-
Aku- Sets up Joram Lynch, I suggested that it was Joram because people that werent accusing him were dying, however in this case it makes no sense to kill off bbt, unless you want me and joram alone, in which case he would be lead to believe that I would vote Joram because it fits my declaration.
BBT- He hates his life?

I think I know who I would vote at this point...

Motivation for Killing Micc:
me-- Frames BBT, who i was pushing for up until Micc's Death
Joram- Frames BBT
Aku- Frames BBT
BBT- Hates Micc...

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Scum would have known I was BP as well which also doesn't make sense.

Actually, with Joram and Aku having claimed VT it would make no sense for scum!Thespio to shoot me because he would know I was VT. If Joram or Aku is scum then it makes sense that they had a 50/50 chance between myself/Thespio of hitting a VT. I thought Thespio was hunting numerous times that he was BP so it makes sense for scum to avoid him and target me instead. Me being almost conf town thanks to Micc's flip provides further reasoning for me being targeted.

OK, it's between Joram and Aku for me. And I'm REALLY struggling to see Aku as scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Actually, with Joram and Aku having claimed VT it would make no sense for scum!Thespio to shoot me because

he would know I was VT

.

EBWOP: He would know I was BP.

[Thespio]

I am too but I cant see Joram very well, also I flat out said that if I was a power role I would lie, so mass claim doesnt help anyone. This means may have targeted one or the other. I was actually hoping you would have died. Because i would know its Aku. Because Joram asking to be copped wouldnt matter.

PEDIT: This is true

[Akuseru]

@Mod: Must scum SEND in a kill every night. ie: Do they have the option tn "no kill".

I'm debating over BBT (HAPPY BIRTHDAY!) right now. I agree, Joram killing you spells instant lynch for him, like the NS kill, it doesn't make sense.

Want to go for another no lynch to narrow it down?

I'm going to be busy for most of the morning/early afternoon, so I'll be back in about 5 hours or so. Sorry.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

No lynching isn't happening. All that happens is I die and I want to win this game Today.

Scum have the option of no killing if they choose to do so.

[Thespio]

@Mod: Must scum SEND in a kill every night. ie: Do they have the option tn "no kill".

I'm debating over BBT (HAPPY BIRTHDAY!) right now. I agree, Joram killing you spells instant lynch for him, like the NS kill, it doesn't make sense.

Want to go for another no lynch to narrow it down?

I'm going to be busy for most of the morning/early afternoon, so I'll be back in about 5 hours or so. Sorry.

Its true we cant confirm that he is BP, but this is what we need to look @ as well, Did he need the town cred to Avoid a lynch If you or I had died? I basically have supported the fact that he is town, so if you died I would have voted him. BBT knows this. So honestly he gains nothing from this claim. I knew it was him if there was a BP because he was opposed to claiming, and because you two claimed.

[Thespio]

Honestly @ This point to avoid WIFOMwe should use Occam's Razor.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

There is no WIFOM to be avoided.

Thespio, who do you feel is most likely to be scum out of Joram and Aku?

[Thespio]

Whatever uses the least amount of assumptions is likely true.

We can Assume that BBT is lying, but then we must Assume that BBT is RB and that means we have to assume that Joram or AKu is BP. Because Micc was likely to have jailed BBT so we have to assume BBT RBed Jailor and killed him.

We can Assume Joram is scum, but that means we have to assume he is dumb as a rock and only kills people who oppose his lynch, we must then also assume that he doesnt learn after making hundreds of mistakes.

We can Assume Aku is scum, but there isnt much more to it... add if you see reasons, I guess we would have to assume his pro town attitude was all faked, but scum does this.

We can Assume I am scum, but that means you are assuming that my voting for scum all the time, and constant scum hunting was an act, which is a possibility, and you would have to assume I am an idiot and really wanted to waste a kill on a BP. You would also need to assume that I wanted to kill the person I buddied as well (Micc). And I would Kill NS, who I almost got lynched but was able to save by helping push bulba.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I need to go back and look at the VCs during this game. Will get to it as soon as I can.

[Thespio]

There is no WIFOM to be avoided.

Thespio, who do you feel is most likely to be scum out of Joram and Aku?

PoE, Joram is either the dumbest idiot, or Aku played Scum as scum should be played. we now know that there is a RB mafia, and thus Jorams slip might have been legit, but Bulba wouldn't hesitate to kill his partner, he would hesitate to kill town, especially since he was sheeping NS up until when we pointed it out. It would be strategic to look hesitant with a Joram lynch since Scum knows he is town and can gain cred from faking avoidance. Aku however didn't affiliate with bulba.

I can see the doubt in AKU since we have all avoided him because he hasn't been hands on that much this game, he was just here to vouch for town.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I agree that Aku is most likely to be scum.

Joram never targets me. Ever. You don't target me, unless you were planning on no lynching, which you didn't propose so I feel it's unlikely to be you. That leaves Aku.

[Thespio]

Aku made a vital mistake, only scum wants to keep me alive... he advocated for me, and buddied me the past two days.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Spoiler: D1 VCs

Vote Count 1.10

stoz

(3):

Bulbazoor

, Akuseru,

notscience

JoramvanVugt

(2): StubbsKVM, Thespio

Thespio

(2):

HenryCabotLodge

, JoramvanVugt

StubbsKVM

(1):

Micc

Not Voting

(1):

stoz

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.11

stoz

(4):

Bulbazoor

,

notscience

, Thespio, JoramvanVugt

JoramvanVugt

(2): StubbsKVM, Akuseru

Thespio

(1):

HenryCabotLodge

StubbsKVM

(1):

Micc

Not Voting

(1):

stoz

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.12

JoramvanVugt

(4): StubbsKVM, Akuseru,

stoz

, Thespio

stoz

(3):

Bulbazoor

,

notscience

, JoramvanVugt

StubbsKVM

(1):

Micc

notscience

(1):

HenryCabotLodge

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.13

JoramvanVugt

(3): StubbsKVM,

stoz

, Thespio

stoz

(3):

Bulbazoor

,

notscience

, Akuseru

Thespio

(1): JoramvanVugt

StubbsKVM

(1):

Micc

notscience

(1):

HenryCabotLodge

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.14

JoramvanVugt

(4): StubbsKVM,

stoz

, Thespio,

Bulbazoor

stoz

(2):

notscience

, Akuseru

Thespio

(1): JoramvanVugt

StubbsKVM

(1):

Micc

notscience

(1):

HenryCabotLodge

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.15

stoz

(4):

notscience

, Akuseru,

Bulbazoor

, JoramvanVugt

JoramvanVugt

(3): StubbsKVM,

stoz

, Thespio

StubbsKVM

(1):

Micc

notscience

(1):

HenryCabotLodge

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.16

stoz

(4):

notscience

, Akuseru,

Bulbazoor

,

Micc

notscience

(3):

HenryCabotLodge

,

stoz

, JoramvanVugt

JoramvanVugt

(2): StubbsKVM, Thespio

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Vote Count 1.17 - FINAL

stoz

(5):

notscience

, Akuseru,

Bulbazoor

,

Micc

,

HenryCabotLodge

JoramvanVugt

(2): StubbsKVM, Thespio

notscience

(2):

stoz

, JoramvanVugt

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

OK, so the first thing I notice is that Aku tries extremely hard to avoid being on the top wagon. In 110 he is on leading wagon Stoz but jumps off to join a smaller wagon (Joram).

His reasoning is based on meta and Joram trying to play the newbie card, (265 and 287). Looking back, his vote on Stoz was fairly well reasoned so why would he not want to keep pushing that wagon? This fits in with Aku being scum and trying to make sure he wasn't on a lynch wagon.

In 381, Joram is the leading wagon. By 432 (the next VC) Aku leaves the Joram wagon and rejoins the Stoz wagon. His reasoning is pretty terirble - In 431, Aku states that we have nobody at L-1 and so he moves his vote onto Stoz to create a wagon instead of no lynching, unless my eyes are deceiving me, nobody unvoted Joram since the last VC so Joram was still at L-1. That means that Aku left an L-1 wagon to join another wagon to put it at L-2. This doesn't make any sense to me, unless again, Aku is trying to make sure he isn't on the lynch wagon.

After this, it was a flurry. People were looking for any wagon because time was of the essence. Therefore, once the Stoz wagon began picking up, Aku could not leave it this time. It would look way too scummy - he had to commit.

Another important note is that up until the lynch wagon, Aku and Bulba keep switching wagons - they never stay on the same wagon. In the end, they had to be on the same wagon due to time restraints.

Something else to consider that caught my attention - I'm wondering whether Stoz was a counter-wagon to Joram. If Joram was scum, Stoz was pushed to avoid his lynch. Look at VCs 455 and 463. Within the space of 8 posts, Joram goes from leading wagon to secondary wagon to Stoz - the main catalyst in this change? Bulba. He switched from Joram onto Stoz and Joram followed suit - this could be scum forcing a counter-wagon to Joram's wagon.

Looking at the votes a little closer - NS proposes that both Bulba and Joram should join the Stoz wagon (456). Low and behold, with very little hesistation, Bulba and Joram proceed to join the Stoz wagon with very little reasoning. (459 and 462).

Hmm, now I have myself conflicted.

[Thespio]

Looking at the votes a little closer - NS proposes that both Bulba and Joram should join the Stoz wagon (456). Low and behold, with very little hesistation, Bulba and Joram proceed to join the Stoz wagon with very little reasoning. (459 and 462).

True, however NS wasnt scum and bulba was sheeping him... so it makes sense bulba switched, also scum wouldnt want to look aligned so early in the game.

[JoramvanVugt]

VOTE: Aku
I agree with your points and honestly i dont think its Thespio, ive been going after you for like the entire game and i kinda hoped 3 players would be left at this point. it would almost confirm to me if lets say me + Thespio + BBT or AKU were left. the Wifom would be real.
Thespio is still alive and would push my lynch, while i would try to push Thespio's lynch. while the 3rd person left is most likely the scum. the fact that BBT did not die makes me believe he is bulletproof townie and makes Aku the last scum

Then again it could be that scum does not have to kill and BBT is making it look like this, then again im wondering why nobody has counterclaimed the bulletproof townie (or is it still not sure its even in the game?)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

What I meant is, Bulba and Joram needed very little convincing to switch wagons. It had nothing to do with NS' alignment - just what he posted to change their minds.

I didn't think about that - it would be pretty ballsy for both scum to switch like that.

VOTE: Aku

This makes the most sense.

[Thespio]

Then again it could be that scum does not have to kill and BBT is making it look like this, then again im wondering why nobody has counterclaimed the bulletproof townie (or is it still not sure its even in the game?)

We dont know for 100% but we can be certain that he has nothing to gain from fake claiming.

[Thespio]

Im going to give Aku 24 hrs to address all the accusations, the fact im not voting confirms me as town

[BlueBloodedToffee]

2 conf town (or nearly conf town) should make for an easy game in LyLo.

[Thespio]

If we misslych there will be no lylo unless we all become BP some how

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I meant we're in LyLo now. Technically, it's MyLo but realistically we're in LyLo. We need to lynch correctly Today to win.