Mini 1701 - Modified Werewolf 13er

[Shinobi]

Vote Count

absta101

(3):

Boonskiies, redFF, Keyser Söze

redFF

(2):

BlueBloodedToffee, absta101

Bulbazoor

(1):

RedCoyote

Not Voting

(3):

Doctor Who, Bulbazoor, TonyMontana

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-09-02 11:30:00)

[absta101]

I'm quite close to voting you Doctor, how long will you fucking dodge the prods? Just replace out if you can't play; same goes for everyone else that is lurking.

[absta101]

I mean, it's been 13 irl days since your last relevant post.

[Boonskiies]

Is Absta still not lynched yet?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

That wasn't as strong of a point as it seemed at the time when Kmd made it. I also still think KS is town. It just to happens, possibly, that the scum laid off the wagon. Perhaps because they were already in the tank for townZoro? This points to Bulba as scum and you cannot deny this, absta.

How does this tie in with your reasoning from yesterday? You're using the same situation and then interpreting it in two different ways so that it fits the narrative you're pushing.

Yesterday, you argued that if Zoro was town that scum would want to get onto that wagon - I agree that it would have been an easy wagon for scum to join given how 3 'obv-town' were pushing it. However, you're now changing that to 'Scum were town reading Zoro and that's why they didn't join wagon. Why has this changed? Is it based purely on a 'Bulba is scum' perspective because that's what it feels like.

How do you feel about the late votes on the Zoro wagon? I'm wondering why they haven't attracted your attention after yesterday's comments.

PEdit - Boon, how about those reads?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Look, we cannot decide between absta and redFF today. Let's table these players for tomorrow and focus instead on Bulba. Why should we focus on Bulba, you may ask. It's primarily because of the way he acted toward the Zoro wagon. He was supposedly so passionate about Zoro being town, and yet he never tried to seriously stop it. He let his vote linger uselessly on TM while Zoro was reaching a fever pitch, completely uninterested in looking at alternatives. This doesn't add up.

This is actually a decent point. I don't see why that takes precedence over lynching Redff though.

absta, I know you are strongly skeptical of me being town, I've got to reach out to you and get you to go with me on this one. I'm not doing this on behalf of redFF or you. I don't want either of you lynched today.

RC, what is your opinion on Redff/Absta? I don't like you 'shelving' this until later in the game.

Bulb town told to me earlier in this game.

He did?

absta, again, I want to table you and redFF during this phase. We don't need to get to this today. We're too torn on you two. It probably won't get done either way.

Bulba was likely the person that bussed Banakai. If there was just one. I'm starting to think that DW may have been right about the idea that Banakai hammered himself out of frustration with his team rather than strategy (this also speaks to Bulba as scum and you cannot deny this). I'll go back and look for some evidence of this. You're starting to open to the idea, right?

Tell me RC, what is the motivation behind shelving a major issue until later in the game? These things need sorting out sooner rather than later. I don't understand your take on this at all.

VOTE: absta101 - it is not a very strong scum-read, but currently my strongest scum-read from my 'uncomfortable' list.

This is a weak vote. I think KS' attack on Absta was weak to begin with - I don't like this at all.

u pushed an easy lynch yesterday with zoronos and are pushing an easy lynch today with bulb

Sorry, what? You're now criticizing a wagon that not only did you join but said there was a 'good case' for it. Can we please, please, please fucking lynch this.

Prodded. I think tony is our best bet.

Why?

I do not like redcpyote so far.

Why?

[RedCoyote]

Is Absta still not lynched yet?

You still haven't replaced out yet?

---

How does this tie in with your reasoning from yesterday? You're using the same situation and then interpreting it in two different ways so that it fits the narrative you're pushing.

I wasn't purposefully trying to lynch town yesterday. I thought scum were trying to avoid the wagon because Zoro was scum, but since he obviously wasn't, it's clear that they were avoiding the wagon for another reason. My next best guess is the reason they were avoiding the wagon is because they had pronounced townreads on him. I think if we follow that logic, Bulba is your best candidate. Not the other way around. I'm not starting at Bulba as scum and looking for connections, I'm starting at who townread Zoro and connecting that to Bulba.

How do you feel about the late votes on the Zoro wagon? I'm wondering why they haven't attracted your attention after yesterday's comments.

You mean Boon? I think he needs to replace out. I don't think he's helping the town. I don't think that slot is as town as everyone else makes it to be, but I think he's still on my town side.

RC, what is your opinion on Redff/Absta? I don't like you 'shelving' this until later in the game.

I think it's possible that one of them is scum and the other isn't, but I have trouble distinguishing which. Further, it's possible that they're both town, too. I don't think they're both scum and would bet the game on that, however. If I thought that was a possibility, I would be right there with you.

If I had to guess, redFF would probably be my scum pick at this point.

You're now criticizing a wagon that not only did you join but said there was a 'good case' for it.

This is a good point.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I wasn't purposefully trying to lynch town yesterday. I thought scum were trying to avoid the wagon because Zoro was scum, but since he obviously wasn't, it's clear that they were avoiding the wagon for another reason. My next best guess is the reason they were avoiding the wagon is because they had pronounced townreads on him. I think if we follow that logic, Bulba is your best candidate. Not the other way around. I'm not starting at Bulba as scum and looking for connections, I'm starting at who townread Zoro and connecting that to Bulba.

Or one of them were already on the Zoro wagon...

Like I said, even if scum had pronounced they were town reading Zoro, given the game-state and the players who were pushing Zoro it would have been pretty easy for them to switch, no?

How do you feel about the late votes on the Zoro wagon? I'm wondering why they haven't attracted your attention after yesterday's comments.

You mean Boon? I think he needs to replace out. I don't think he's helping the town. I don't think that slot is as town as everyone else makes it to be, but I think he's still on my town side.

I mean Boon, Absta and Redff.

I think it's possible that one of them is scum and the other isn't, but I have trouble distinguishing which. Further, it's possible that they're both town, too. I don't think they're both scum and would bet the game on that, however. If I thought that was a possibility, I would be right there with you.

If I had to guess, redFF would probably be my scum pick at this point.

Great, we're finally getting somewhere. If you're struggling to distinguish between the two of them, I would think you would want to sort this out sooner rather than later. I can't wrap my head around your thinking here.

[Keyser Söze]

Notes on Bulbazoor (current town-lean read)

I saw consistency between Bulbazoor's scum-read and vote (post 306) -

town points

I suspected Bulbazoor of active lurking (post 620) -

scum points

Bulbazoor made an extensive post and vote on Banakai page 29 (post 702).

I believe this was the VC, prior to his vote on Banakai:
Boonskiies (4): absta101, Tony Montana, Kmd4390, Banakai
absta101 (2): Zoronos, Boonskiies
Banakai (2): Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote
Tony Montana (1): BlueBloodedToffee
BlueBloodedToffee (2): Doctor Who, redff

Bulbazoor was not voting, but then voted for werewolf (Banakai) -

town points

Bulbazoor was late on the Doctor Who/WoodyWoodpecker wagon.
Bulbazoor was early on the Banakai wagon -

town points

Bulbazoor was on the Tony Montana wagon.


I will need to do a meta-check, but I have seen town-Bulbazoor vote for many players in

previous

games - in

this

game he could be described as more reserved: either not voting or voting for his 3 main scum reads (WoodyWoodpecker, Banakai and Tony Montana). Therefore, I do not know if this playstyle-change is alignment indicative but I feel it is worth flagging.

@Bulbazoor - are you aware of this change in voting-playstyle?

What is also interesting to note is that Bulbazoor has scum-read BlueBloodedToffee through-out this game, but is yet to vote for him. But Bulbazoor has evidently always had a stronger scum-read.

[Keyser Söze]

Notes on TonyMontana (current town-lean read)

Read his catch-up and early vote on Boonskiies as opportunistic (post 576) -

scum points

TonyMontana shared his D1 scum reads: "my main suspects as of this moment is BBT and banakai."

Banakai wrote: "I'm not seeing an absta as scum, but tony montana I'd be okay with but I still prefer boon"
Banakai accuses TonyMontana of being lurking scum: "I kind of fear that if tony IS lurking scum, that if we don't lynch him today we might not get around to it (until maybe a lylo) because we already have like 4 suspects and only more things are going to come up especially with a doctor and seer in the setup. (post 860).

This post came directly after Zoronos and BlueBloodedToffee had posted their two votes on TonyMontana. Banakai was at the time, the joint-leading wagon.

Banakai (4): Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote, Bulbazoor, Boonskiies
Boonskiies (4): absta101, Banakai, Tony Montana, Kmd4390
absta101 (3): redff, Keyser Söze, Doctor Who

Tony Montana (2): Zoronos, BlueBloodedToffee

Would have Banakai wanted to re-direct a wagon on his scum-teammate? -

Town points.

Banakai adds one more final thought on TonyMontana:

Also I agree that bringing up tony wagon at the end of deadline is kind of scummy, but then again I think tony could be scum.

The Boonskiies D1 counter-wagon: (4) absta101, Banakai (werewolf), TonyMontana, Kmd4390 (town).
I can't see all three werewolves being on this wagon. Thus, I don't see absta101-TonyMontana as scum-scum (one scum possible).

TonyMontana shared his top 3 D2 scum reads:
"Scum:
BlueBloodedToffee
Zoronos
redFF"

[Keyser Söze]

I'm quite close to voting you Doctor

Banakai confused Boonskiies' (Vinkah) slot with WoodyWoodpecker's (Doctor Who) slot:

VOTE: Boon

I bought idiot town for woody, but I have a hard time believing this slot was simply idiot town twice. Also not much point for me to be on a wagon nobody is helping with. I still suspect red ff.

Boons posts especially look more like scum than idiot town.

I will post more about him in a little bit

I actually made a mistake and though boon replaced woody but he didnt...

Still, woody pulled off idiot town much better than this guy. This guy still just looks like a scum.

Would have Banakai accidently said Boonskiies replaced his werewolf teammate Doctor Who?
No - it looks like Banakai confused the two replace-in slots of Boonskiies and Doctor Who (of which I both town-read).

[Boonskiies]

I mean, I only want Absta lynched, and I've stated my vote isn't moving.

[TonyMontana]

There are 9 living players. If the Angel claims today, then the Angel is NK'd leaving the Seer around another day. Day 4 there will be 7 living players. By that point, if the Seer hasn't found scum and all of the Seer's investigations are town then the Seer claims and confirms three townies plus the Seer. With 4 confirmed town out of 7 players, it is basically game over.

It isn't just about the Seer finding scum, it is about confirming townies. Given that the Seer hasn't come forth with found scum, the Seer likely has two confirmed townies (in which case it is more likely than not that both are living).

You're presenting a best case scenario (short of a guilty report) like it's guaranteed to happen.
You seem way too caught up in this scheme. We could still lynch a scum today, you know? 1 scum and 7 players also sounds pretty nice for D4

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You have to vote to lynch scum Tony.

Thoughts on the current game state?

[RedCoyote]

There are 9 living players. If the Angel claims today, then the Angel is NK'd leaving the Seer around another day. Day 4 there will be 7 living players. By that point, if the Seer hasn't found scum and all of the Seer's investigations are town then the Seer claims and confirms three townies plus the Seer. With 4 confirmed town out of 7 players, it is basically game over.

It isn't just about the Seer finding scum, it is about confirming townies. Given that the Seer hasn't come forth with found scum, the Seer likely has two confirmed townies (in which case it is more likely than not that both are living).

You're presenting a best case scenario (short of a guilty report) like it's guaranteed to happen.
You seem way too caught up in this scheme. We could still lynch a scum today, you know? 1 scum and 7 players also sounds pretty nice for D4

You stated earlier that you thought the Angel claiming D3 had much more merit than in D2. I agreed with that, but was kind of indifferent. At this point, I'm no longer on the fence. I do think it would be more beneficial for the Angel to claim today.

Best case scenario: Seer has two innocents (not including an un-cc'd Angel), Angel claims, that's 4 clears today. Narrows down scum to 2 in 5. If we manage to lynch someone in the 5, regardless if we hit scum or town, then Angel is shot overnight, we then come into D4 with Seer and three good reports.
Worst case scenario: Seer has reports on one dead person and the Angel. Angel claims and we learn nothing.

Or something happens in between that. But even if it's the worst case scenario, that scenario could still happen tomorrow, too. Or the day after. Depending on how good the Seer is at investigating either scum or townies that don't get shot.

I'll tell you one thing, if the Angel doesn't claim today then he better claim tomorrow. There's a point of diminishing returns here, and we're taking just as much risk with him not claiming (Seer could investigate him if he hasn't already; scum could shoot him) that we are with having him claim.

[RedCoyote]

Scum have shot the most townie players two days in a row, I think. I have a good guess who the next player to be shot is going to be (or at least whom I would shoot). If that player knows who he is and happens to be the Angel, he should definitely claim. It will be a real negative to lose the Angel before he has a chance to claim during the day phase.

[RedCoyote]

Banakai confused Boonskiies' (Vinkah) slot with WoodyWoodpecker's (Doctor Who) slot:

VOTE: Boon

I bought idiot town for woody, but I have a hard time believing this slot was simply idiot town twice. Also not much point for me to be on a wagon nobody is helping with. I still suspect red ff.

Boons posts especially look more like scum than idiot town.

I will post more about him in a little bit

I actually made a mistake and though boon replaced woody but he didnt...

Still, woody pulled off idiot town much better than this guy. This guy still just looks like a scum.

Would have Banakai accidently said Boonskiies replaced his werewolf teammate Doctor Who?
No - it looks like Banakai confused the two replace-in slots of Boonskiies and Doctor Who (of which I both town-read).

This needs to be brought up early and often. Good reminder.

Question to absta/redFF: Aren't y'all concerned with this growing duality between you two? What I mean by this is, like, I'm getting this unspoken vibe in this game that one of you two HAS to be scum. That's where I disconnect from BBT, Boon, absta and redFF. I do not necessarily think this. It's a real possibility, but I don't think it has to be the case. Like, aren't y'all concerned that if we lynch one of you, that player flips town, that the next day you'll just be lined up as the lynch immediately? This goes to the crux of why I don't want to lynch between you two today.

[redFF]

@rc yeah that's always a worry when ur tunneling someone but im 95% sure absta is mafia so its all good

[RedCoyote]

Like I said, even if scum had pronounced they were town reading Zoro, given the game-state and the players who were pushing Zoro it would have been pretty easy for them to switch, no?

Why would they want to? Especially if they thought the wagon was going to go through. If you can be scum that townreads a lynched townie, then you come up looking good.

Further, my big concern with Bulba has less to do with his accuracy in voting. Any idiot scum can bus his partner and stay off a town wagon that other townies are pushing hard. My concern is the indifferent nature with which he casted the votes. Let me take you back to both of Bulba at the end of both D1 and D2 for comparison. Remember that Bulba voted Banakai (scum) mid-D1 and stayed there (to his credit, he had a decent case and I actually have no problem with how he arrived at his vote... I'm going to present what he did after his vote) and he voted TM toward the end of D2.

D1 Bulba

He votes Banakai in 702 and then goes forward to make the following posts:

I thin

k

banakai is a lov

e

l

y

dude with a great per

s

onality. H

e

is ve

r

y attractive. I look up to him and hope to meet him someday.

Dude you just exposed the daycop's guilty on you.

Is this a joke?

What bad thing did tony do?

I'm going to join the Banakai wagon unless someone joins the Boon wagon in a few hours.

At 852, BBt is making no sense right now. He calls Doc Who vote on absta opportunistic? Why is it?

Zoro, why are you not pushing as hard as before?

At Keyser.

Keyser so far my main scumreads are BBT and Ban, with TOny along it.

Up to page 15 note:
Boonski has been making a lot of posts, yet have been saying little of note.

Just gonna go ahead and quote this for everyone.

This is what Tony had after 15 pages.

Let that sink in. Then vote him.

BBT trying to get people to vote tony for invented reasons.

Bulb - What is your position on the current 2-3 wagons? Any chance I can convince you to give a read one way or the other on Tony?

Well, I am scumreading tony since I agree with keyser on his reasons, and also because I got iso reads frfom him also. Do you wat me to talk about what I found?
I am still content on Ban.

D1 ends at 964

Contrast D1 with D2

D2 Bulba

He votes TM in 1194 and goes forward to make the following posts:

Is this your case for him scum. Where do you get him scumhunting fakely from? Are you zoro? No, so do not say it is fake with nothing to back your little theory up. Is this all of your case? Go through his iso. Nothing you say seems to come from his posts. The frustration feels genuine.

Well, I liked [Zoro's] day one. He seemed extremely towny then, so I am defending him on that.

BBT is not reading. Noted

Prodded.

I have not been able to get ahold of a computer.

D2 ends at 1311

What are some takeaways from this?

In D1, after voting Banakai early in the wagon, notice how Bulba spent the rest of his day calling out other people as scum. He never reinforced his Banakai read. He never engaged Banakai at all (:!:) which is odd for a town player, imo. You'll never convince a player he is scum, but usually there is back and forth going on to influence other people. Bulba spent the rest of D1 trying to get people to look at BBT, TM and KS as possible alternatives to be lynched. While his vote initially was decent, it never felt like he wanted the Banakai lynch to me (whereas you look at a player like HC, he spent a lot of time trying to sell the Banakai wagon after he voted him... or look at me on Kmd on D2, another flipped townie that consistently kept coming back to Zoro. This is what townies do when they suspect someone and vote them.) This gives me all the vibes of a scum bussing a partner.

In D2, after voting TM, the only thing Bulba does is tell us how strong of a Zoro townread he has. Notice how he never attempts to stop the Zoro wagon. He never attempts to provide alternatives in TM or BBT (presumably still his major scumreads). Completely unlike D1, he's content to let his vote sit uselessly and lurk the rest of the day out. He doesn't really want the Zoro wagon to stop, he just wants to be on record as telling it to stop. Actions speak louder than words. In D1, he did everything he could to point to alternatives to Banakai. He kept his vote on him because he wanted the credit for lynching him should it happen, but he wanted other people to start up another wagon on a town player (incidentally, if Bulba is scum, BBT and TM should get townpoints), but in D2, he did no such posturing. Bulba got what he wanted with his vote on D1 but not the end result. In D2, he got what he wanted in his vote and with the end result. And you can tell by the way he acted at the ends of the respective days the difference in attitude.

[Keyser Söze]

Does anyone read absta101-redFF as scum-scum or town-town?

[RedCoyote]

You know, now that I put all the pieces together about all the players, I'm pretty convinced that the last two scum are in {redFF, Bulba and absta} anyway.

[RedCoyote]

Does anyone read absta101-redFF as scum-scum or town-town?

I think there's a small but not insignificant possibility it's town-town. I do not think there's any chance whatsoever it's scum-scum.

[Shinobi]

Bulbazoor has been prodded. This is his final prod.

[absta101]

@RC

Question to absta/redFF: Aren't y'all concerned with this growing duality between you two? What I mean by this is, like, I'm getting this unspoken vibe in this game that one of you two HAS to be scum. That's where I disconnect from BBT, Boon, absta and redFF. I do not necessarily think this. It's a real possibility, but I don't think it has to be the case. Like, aren't y'all concerned that if we lynch one of you, that player flips town, that the next day you'll just be lined up as the lynch immediately? This goes to the crux of why I don't want to lynch between you two today.

One of us can get investigated and lining up lynches is a stupid thing to do unless there is a counter claim.

Also, you still aren't convincing me about Bulb. He doesn't strike me as the type of scum that would be confident enough to buss day 1 and also call Zoro town.

[absta101]

i plan on re-reading this entier game to get clearer thoughts on it, we should make the most use of this day phase, even if we are still going to lynch me.

cause its a long day and im rereading

What even happened to this reread. There has been no evidence of this at all.