Mini 1701 - Modified Werewolf 13er

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hmm, I just had another read if RCs ISO regarding Bulba and my memory seems to have magnified his issues with Bulba - he only stated he couldn't read him/was getting frustrated with him 3 times, which is still a decent amount. However, towards the middle/end of D2 he starts to become suspicious of Bulba. Again, I think this points towards RC being likely to investigate Bulba.

I also noticed a couple of other things;

You know, now that I put all the pieces together about all the players, I'm pretty convinced that the last two scum are in {redFF, Bulba and absta} anyway.

Here is RC's lynch pool - if he did get two clears and not a guilty on Bulba we know that the clears are not in this pool. Absta has died, and what do you know, that leaves my top two scumspects.

BBT, I'm asking you to give me this one, man. I don't deserve it after the Zoro misfire, but give me this one. I'll completely sheep you tomorrow if I am wrong. You can hold me to that.

Looking back, this could be a seer crumb. Like he knows he isn't wrong and wants my support for his wagon.

[Keyser Söze]

I am going to look at RedCoyote's ISO this afternoon.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm looking forward to you doing anything that even remotely resembles your earlier play.

[TonyMontana]

I see through your MO like a sheet of freshly Windexed glass.

If this isn't a crumb, I don't know what is.

I am warming up to the idea that RC saw Bulb. Like BBT is pointing out, he's practically begging for the lynch.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Tony, join me in voting Bulba please.

[TonyMontana]

BBT at this point, I doubt he had a guilty. If he did, why not out it straight out. Anyway, I think it is bbt/redff with a hint of tony in it. Real angel should out since we need a clear to lead us today.

You doubt he had a guilty? The only person who shouldn't have any doubt is town-bulb. So I'm starting to doubt that town-bulb is in this game.

If you want Angel to claim, maybe you should claim Angel.
If I'm alive tomorrow, I'd rather be alive with an angel alive, because sacrificing our last card today doesn't seem very beneficial.
It's LyLo tomorrow if we don't get scum today. LyLo with an angel sounds better than an angel "leader" for the day.

p-edit: I'm keeping my vote off for now, BBT, I want to ensure we hear more from everyone. But I'm onboard.

[TonyMontana]

Also, just wanted to point out something that caught my eye, RC on the topic of seer claiming:

I don't think the Seer should claim, guilty or no. That's easy enough to figure out later down the road (if they have a guilty and are killed before they tell us).

Granted, this was on D2, but it could be instructive as to whether RC would've claimed if he did have a guilty.

[Keyser Söze]

I will need to do a meta-check, but I have seen town-Bulbazoor vote for many players in

previous

games - in

this

game he could be described as more reserved: either not voting or voting for his 3 main scum reads (WoodyWoodpecker, Banakai and Tony Montana). Therefore, I do not know if this playstyle-change is alignment indicative but I feel it is worth flagging.

@Bulbazoor - are you aware of this change in voting-playstyle?

What is also interesting to note is that Bulbazoor has scum-read BlueBloodedToffee through-out this game, but is yet to vote for him. But Bulbazoor has evidently always had a stronger scum-read.

@BlueBloodedToffee - have you noted this change in voting play-style?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't pay attention to meta.

[Boonskiies]

What happened to the Redff support if Absta flipped town...?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Thoughts on Bulba Boon?

[Keyser Söze]

Let's look at RedCoyote's town/scum reads and thought-process from D2.

D2

POSITIVE

Doctor Who:

BBT, I think you a succumbing to, "DW is scum being he should be" syndrome. Do you know what I mean?

BlueBloodedToffee:

I'm thinking BBT is legitimately, but overly paranoid, town.

Doctor Who, Boonskiies:

Shouldn't this give townpoints to both DW and Boonskiies?

Keyser Söze:

Anyway, I like KS' post here.

TonyMontana:

I think that last minute push at TM just reinforces my theory that TM is town.

Boonskiies, TonyMontana, Doctor Who:

Banakai's posts give me confident townreads on Boon, TM and DW.

Keyser Söze:

Questions like this one are a good reason why. Further, I see you reading the game and forming independent analysis (stack this against a player like Zoro or Bulba, for instance... big difference in style). I think your focus on TM is offbase, but I can appreciate your enthusiasm.

TonyMontana:

I liked TM's case against him.

Keyser Söze:

Come again? I found his D2 start to be the best of all of us (myself included).

Keyser Söze:

I feel confident that the makeup of the wagon is solidly town.

Boonskiies:

He's likely town

TonyMontana, redFF:

I read TM's 1146 and liked it. I thought he presented a very good point about redFF's hypocrisy in his push of you. I said it was good enough to make me rethink my previous redFF town read. redFF has since responded to the case in such a way that I no longer think these things. Period.

NEGATIVE

redFF, Bulbazoor:

I'm becoming more and more convinced our scumteam is Banakai/Zoro/absta or redFF or Bulba

BlueBloodedToffee:

Yeah, I think I would. In that case I think it would be BBT

[Keyser Söze]

I'm going to scrap the idea of trying to read based on who townread Banakai because I think that path just leads us to BBT

. Kmd was kind of an odd kill because Zoro was gunning for him yesterday pretty hard.

Interesting comment - does this clear BlueBloodedToffee?


RedCoyote then presents his case/vote on Bulbazoor.

[TonyMontana]

Seer flipped, a seer who came straight into D3 with a vendetta against Bulba.
This was no coincidence, and it is also why RC got killed, because it must have been clear as day to scum that RC was the seer.

VOTE: Bulbazoor

I was all about "hey, let's talk it over", but I think we have an advantage now, so let's run with it.
Insha'Allah, the angel will get through yet another night.

Interesting comment - does this clear BlueBloodedToffee?

This comment stood out to me as well, sounded like BBT was not an option to him. In other comments he doesn't seem to write off BBT as a potential candidate, so I'm not sure now..

[Keyser Söze]

BBT is not reading.

I think you are scum to be honest

. You are barely reading the context of the thread. I am stating that I do not like coyote so far and you ignore it. I townread zoro yesterday and abdta was a town read as well. Coyote, if you are town, stop deathtunneling me. You and tony are my scum reads

You have scum-read BlueBloodedToffee from D1, but still no vote for him?

Scum can town-read town to gain town-cred - using it as an argument is scummy.

Confident town reads:
Doctor Who
TonyMontana

Weak town read:
Boonskiies

Uncomfortable zone:
BlueBloodedToffee
redFF

Lynch candidate:
Bulbazoor

@MOD. VC please.

I think Bulbazoor is L-1, I can hammer or should we look at D3 more?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'd like to hear from Who and Boon.

[Boonskiies]

Gah, I might be mixing games up. I need to reread when I get the chance because I can't find the post that I thought made Bulb town.

[Boonskiies]

Did someone say L-1?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Boon, I'm interested in what makes you think Bulba is town.

[Shinobi]

Vote Count

Bulbazoor

(3):

BlueBloodedToffee, redFF, TonyMontana

redFF

(1):

Boonskiies

Not Voting

(3):

Doctor Who, Keyser Söze, Bulbazoor

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-09-13 11:30:00)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Also Keyser, I want you to explain your read on me.

[Doctor Who]

Did someone say L-1?

Vote Count

Bulbazoor

(3):

BlueBloodedToffee, redFF, TonyMontana

redFF

(1):

Boonskiies

Not Voting

(3):

Doctor Who, Keyser Söze, Bulbazoor

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-09-13 11:30:00)

Phone posting - I am in Boston for work and I'll get caught up tonight. Please don't quick hammer - I want to get on recird and I have time. I wAnt to reread redc and look back to the ban wagons

[Doctor Who]

This bit with more cor, wagons, and Analysis, look at ban wagon, should be a scum boon, bulb and or bbt

There were four wagons on Day 1 that got to L-2 or higher. Here they are in order.

Wagon 1

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 168
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)
Doctor Who__________6______Boonskiies (9), BlueBloodedToffee (66), Keyser Söze (72), absta101 (132), Bulbazoor (138), redff (168)
no vote_____________2______

Banakai

, RedCoyote
absta101____________1______Zoronos (102)
BlueBloodedToffee___1______Kmd4390 (144)
Haschel Cedricson___1______Doctor Who (51)
Kmd4390_____________1______TonyMontana (13)
unvote______________1______

Haschel Cedricson

(76)

Wagon 2

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 564
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)
absta101____________5______Zoronos (102), Kmd4390 (175), Boonskiies (485), redff (531), BlueBloodedToffee (564)
Boonskiies__________3______absta101 (422),

Banakai

(472), TonyMontana (533)
unvote______________2______Bulbazoor (301), Keyser Söze (510)

Banakai

_____________1______

Haschel Cedricson

(502)
Bulbazoor___________1______Doctor Who (169)
no vote_____________1______RedCoyote

Wagon 3

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 788
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)

Banakai

_____________5______

Haschel Cedricson

(502), RedCoyote (649), Bulbazoor (702), Boonskiies (710), BlueBloodedToffee (788)
Boonskiies__________4______absta101 (422),

Banakai

(472), TonyMontana (533), Kmd4390 (592)
BlueBloodedToffee___2______Doctor Who (650), redFF (681)
absta101____________1______Zoronos (102)
unvote______________1______Keyser Söze (510)

Wagon 4

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 964
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)

Banakai

_____________7______

Haschel Cedricson

(502), RedCoyote (649), Bulbazoor (702), Boonskiies (710), BlueBloodedToffee (940), absta101 (941),

Banakai

(964)
absta101____________3______redff (790), Keyser Söze (805), Doctor Who (808)
Boonskiies__________2______Kmd4390 (592), TonyMontana (839)
TonyMontana_________1______Zoronos (850)


___

I'll keep my commentary below the wagons, as I intend to add to them and update colors as we learn more (would be nice to color the angel blue).

___

The

first wagon

formed quickly, within hours of when the game started. Banakai indicates his approval in his first post of the game (after the wagon fell apart). Note how Banakai addresses BBT from the scum standpoint, not the town standpoint. I contend there is at least one scum on it, if not two.

I AM HERE

I read things; I have 2 questions for players

Woody: would you care to explain why you are playing so defensive? As a town usually you just have to accept that one of you are gonna die day 1 probbably, and just try and get as much information as possible even when being voted. I believe you are either scum, or at least very bad at being town. Also your name can be abbreviated to WW which can mean werewolf. Confirmed.


BBT: Do you think there would be any motivation in this game for a scum to tunnel on Woody like you are now?


Kind of hard to tell about other players since they are mostly spectating and gathering facts, with the exception of people who have already taken the side of Woody acting scum-like which I agree with.

The

second wagon

, like the first, also had BBT, redff, and Boon. Banakai put a solo vote out there on red ff, before joining the boon wagon. His only other vote day 1 was to self-hammer.

VOTE: red ff ya I know I called him town

VOTE: Boon

I bought idiot town for woody, but I have a hard time believing this slot was simply idiot town twice. Also not much point for me to be on a wagon nobody is helping with. I still suspect red ff.

Boons posts especially look more like scum than idiot town.

I will post more about him in a little bit

Absta was ready to claim, but to BBT's credit he told him the situation was L-2.

Thats L-1 btw, tell me when you want my claim.

It's L-2.

But doesn't that bring attention to yourself? Why would you do that as scum?

The

third wagon

is on scum, with one confirmed town on it. The

fourth wagon

was the lynch, and the first 4 votes are the same, BBT's 5th vote had moved to Tony before going back to Banakai when I called him out on it. Absta and Banakai moved the wagon to a lynch.

I think it's fair to say there are at least two scum on the lynch wagon (Banakai being one of them). The first four votes come off as town since if they were scum they could have peeled off, which makes what BBT did look like he was trying to move to a counter wagon. BBT couldn't vote Boon after saying how he was playing town, so he did what he could in trying starting another bandwagon.

I want to look at the players history next. Had absta shown a willingness to lynch Banakai? Why did Banakai come in all "F" this?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Looking forward to more than that Who.

[Doctor Who]

Confuses Boonskiies slot with WoodyWoodpecker's (Doctor Who) slot (post 473).

Shouldn't this give townpoints to both DW and Boonskiies? It seems like the scumteam would be more cognizant if one of their own replaced out.

Anyway, I like KS' post here. I'm becoming more and more convinced our scumteam is Banakai/Zoro/absta or redFF or Bulba

Still catching up, just noting what RedC said. It can't be Zoro or Absta, so scumpoints to redFF and Bulba.