In post 3531, Spiffeh wrote:Axle I agree that Sakura has seemed very town throughout the whole game. I have admitted to thinking such very recently. However, there is just too much evidence against her at this point. Please tell me how a town-aligned JOAT 1-shot roleblock, 1-shot track, and BPV can be balanced in this setup. Keep in mind that of the mafia members that have flipped, there have only been mafia goons.
How is it not balanced and as she has had role for while, when did this become problem?
What is all this evidence of which you speak?
Goofball analysis is bollocks it does not even follow his own rules. See(
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Scumputer) (important parts of that are left out)
He did not subtract off the expected number of scum when there were flipped scum. (4 players voting 1 scum flipped he claimed he expcted second? Why? or even how the fuck did he think that?)
When i pointed that out he claimed oh yes wagons have more than average scum. (but failed to explain why it was just that wagon that had extras)
That is precisely what his algorithm does not assume. (Var G explicitly subtracts them off and not doing so is DAFT.)
His algorithm is ALSO meant to subtract of the background random rate at which random people would flip scum ( "
(VAR H * 100) - (VAR B * 100)
")
He did not do that. That biases the algorithm towards scum reading anyone who is active and voting lots of wagons.
Indeed people who are strongly town read wind up on big wagons because they are strongly town read.
So DGB's algorithm that he used in this game tends to scum read people who are town reads.
I said people make mistakes. So DGB could have too. So I asked him about the mistakes.
HE doubled down by claiming that the computation on the wagon with an already flipped scum was correct.
It is not, It is rubbish.
Do note.
I am pretty sure that if you were really figuring the game out and implemented the algorithm on the wiki page fairly it would still lean scum on Sakura.
If you were really being fair you would have ignored or discounted some early wagons as they were at best barely out of RVS.
Also, if you go look at my colouring in of the wagons
3478 <<<(Axle colors in aproposed scum team to see if it makes sense)
magic with numbers can make sakura look scummy, BUT there is nothing VCA like that is significantly wrong with the scum team of
Echo Echo and DrippignGoofBall.
As when you color in all the votes for that team it is quite fine.
3478
Then VCA cannot possibly indicate it must be Sakura. as other scum teams makes sense just fine.
That DGB VCA is not and cannot be strong evidence against Sakura.
