NY 189 - Flower Viewing Festival [~fin~]

[pieguyn]

votecount 7.2

Sakura Hana (2) - Echo Echo, Shazam

Shazam (1) - Sakura Hana

Not voting (3) - AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, DrippingGoofball

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is October 3, 10:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2015-10-03 10:00:00).

[Spiffeh]

Yeah now I think they're just trying to distance from each other because it's inevitable one of them is getting lynched today.

Good effort though.

[AxleGreaser]

I highly doubt a scum Echo softclaims mason. That's too big of a risk and if ika hadn't said anything and Echo didn't end up dead the next night, he would be in deep shit.

No he wouldn't, because then he votes Ika, or does other stuff to up the tension until ika spits the dummy and claims.

[Sakura Hana]

Yeah now I think they're just trying to distance from each other because it's inevitable one of them is getting lynched today.

Good effort though.

He's been "distancing" since Day 1. Seriously i can't believe you even believe what you're saying, it's obvious that he's scum and if he's not then GG.

[Spiffeh]

Yeah I agree he is scum.

[Spiffeh]

I feel like the evidence against you is more damning.

[Sakura Hana]

I feel like the evidence against you is more damning.

Sigh...
I'm done explaining myself.

I fucked up, this is going to be a town loss because people can't see beyond "oh hey she sheeped her guilty", i already explained myself, i wasnt paying attention to where the votes were and was annoyed that ppl didnt want to lynch fire.

Sorry i let you all down.

[Spiffeh]

That's not why. Why did you give up a confirmed guilty to you just to sheep Salamence? ESPECIALLY when you apparently had a BPV and would probably want to draw a kill to yourself.

I hope you can see why that gives me pause.

[Sakura Hana]

I fucked up

^
There

Tell me have you ever felt apathetic in a game.

Have you ever feel like you keep yelling out of your lungs for people to lynch scum and people just dont follow you.

I'm not perfect, nor i think anyone here is, and i'm human, i make mistakes, it happens, i was away from the game for like what 3 days or so? i don't even remember.
I understand why you have reservations, but i want you to see beyond that.

[Sakura Hana]

Huh, actually i should have probably realized that scum didn't have a roleblocker since they killed IaI.... sigh now i feel dumb.

[AxleGreaser]

@Spiffeh @Thread

reasons you should not have town read on Echo echo

As mentioned I am going VLA.
Even if we no lynch there is no guarantee scum would shoot Sakura. (once and then once again)(assuming the BP is legit)
There is stuff I need to put in the thread. ordinarily Id wait and see how stuff plays out today, but with Echo VLA, I cant play this how I want to.

I would suggest what is in the spoilers may not yet be relevant. But if I die.... then yeah it is. If this day plays out in the some of the ways it might, then yeah it is.
meanwhile i am writing it down while i have some time. (I also have to get ready to go away)

Spoiler: Is Echo Echo the alt of a competent mafia player

TLDR: YEP

or just comptetent without caring about choosing between alt or visiting player from another site.
These posts say yes

VOTE: Aeronaut

So you're saying a town player should have lurked then? Is that what you're saying?

You're trying to paint me as scum without ascertaining the motivations. That's scummy.

Technically, it's called mudslinging. I'm accusing you of doing so.

The above is scum hunting technique i have seen used exclusively by players who are regarded as at least "not bad"

This is damn fine push.

This needs to go.

VOTE: Axle.



Looking in his posts, they lack content. All of it is filler and feel awkward in the sense that they state facts but never provide their own opinion on the game. He has no townreads or scumreads, and to put it bluntly, is just coasting.

I understand why Frogger townread him off Post 8, but it appears to be something playstyle-dependednt and can be easily faked as scum. Frogger mistakenly townread him for a null action because he saw Axle perform it a couple of times before. He has since revised this read.

Ostensibly, he has not provided his thoughts on the game, or on any players, or any reasonable votes that a town player would have made early game. The best he has provided theory discussion that is unfortunately not very correct.

Its BS. It wont fly. It is place to park his vote.
AND
I think it would express a legit concern. My play yup to there had been "odd" (for reasons)

TLDR 418 Is not altogether fluff. And it does reflect my read of how Echo echo evaluates his own skill level and experience and the stature with which he would expect to be seen if he claimed who he was.

Are his two VCAs bollocks

Spoiler: yep

Also see my previous criticism of them

2808 raw data conclusion 2809 bad explanation 2820
This bit for instance is awful

Look at bearbert's vote on the flubber wagon. It is at vote 7 out of 8. Looks pretty safe and scummy right. I think so too.

Not once Bear flips town, this wagon and votes on it do not even figure in his next analysis.

new VCA raw data 3314 revised VCA 3321
That wagon now has no importance at all.
It is not that the wagon is inconsistent with his final conclusion, but this time it plays no part in the analysis.

That the analysis is BS, was clear to me from the start. What echo echo had if he is town is other reasons for having the reads that his VCA gives as their answer, and then he gets them.
The most the VCA does is not contradict his reads.
Which is kind of fair enough ,as thats what VCA is good for, validating and idiot checking your reads.

My problem is it feels like way to lynch people with clean hands, when echo echo doesnt also say they are his reads. WHile not on the same level as when noobs do it, that can be seen as retreating into the safety of a mechanistic approach to making reads and choosing which wagon to drive.

Echo possibly distancing from the Davsto flip.

I'm still testing my VCA, so for science, I'm going to leave my vote on you.

If you're town, sorry.

Yeah but Echo echo is in the town block because.....

He did not really DRIVE the tn wagon.

Spoiler: TN posts

Shazam 1526 noted the echo echo post was odd.
He does quote 1081 where tn expressed strong opinions about mario being scum BUT echo echo di not point out that was incongruous with Tn later jumping off the wagon 1147.
It was spiffeh in 1485 that made the actual observation of how bad that was and why.

and then basically no more pushing of the tn wagon
1649 is not exactly driving the lynch home

Its true that even drawing as much attention as 1483 did, is a risk to do to a scum buddy.

Spoiler: Echos, Views on Aero

VOTE: TN

Any objections to an Areo shot?

I object. Please shoot Davesto.

Spoiler: Echo actually driving a flubber wagon

1838 one might even suggest he was trying to impose himself and his will on the thread (with a big picture)
inviting more votes.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Follow me!

1857 1862 1866 1925

Spoiler: Echo actually driving a pisskop/bearbert wagon

2188 one might even suggest he was trying to impose himself and his will on the thread (with a big picture)
2189

2809 and onwards lots more serious pushing of Pisskop/Bear Slot.

Conclusion: Whatever town Cred EchoEcho had for making posts that might be unwise as scum (see spoiler about TN above)

is more than compensated for by driving two town wagons quite hard, and advocating for the nk off scum(Aero) and onto town(Davsto).

NOTE: TOWN fuckup too.

THAT ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ is not a case.

It is what is, and what Echo echo status as a member of the town block no longer is.

Echo echo has been leveraging his small role in the lynch of TN all game.
He used it to actually drive several mislynches.

He distanced himself from his pushes

According to VCA, Bearbert D is most likely to be scum. Let's go.

I'm still testing my VCA, so for science, I'm going to leave my vote on you.

If you're town, sorry.

and then having worn out the welcome on his VCA wants to ride another one.

God damn it ika, my voting you was part of the gambit. Thank you for trusting me though. You shouldn't have outed yourself. I guess we should communicate better.


It appears that my VCA method fucking sucks. That's unfortunate.

I trust DGB's VCA though.

It also does not seem reasonable to me that voting ika was meant to somehow be part of the gambit and that Ika should have gone along with it.
It looked like an attempt to get the mason outed. I was little worried it was so scum wouldnt have to explain why Sakura didnt die and how they instead chose to guess right who was the mason out of ika and echo.

It could also have been as they didnt want ika alive and did want Sakura. It is in my view easier to guess what Sakura wants, and sakura is better to have alive to day as Ika would have been mod confirmed unshakeable basis that town might rally around.

Whichever the reason getting mason:ika outed was a pro scum thing to achieve.

[Spiffeh]

I'm sorry if I'm wrong Sakura but I think there's too much stacked against you.

@Axle

There's also the setup speculation argument which is like 100x less reliable but is still there. I don't see the town having a roleblocker AND a BPV. What exactly would a 1-shot roleblock do? Sure, it would block a kill, which is a confirmed guilty unless scum idles. Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself. Then she gets another guilty by tracking someone. Her role alone would be capable of stopping two night kills and getting two guilties, which seems WAY too overpowered with a scumteam of four when we already have a gunsmith and a two-shot vig. Also three confirmed towns because of the masons. It doesn't make sense given the setup. She should be lynched today.

Please respond to this.

[Spiffeh]

I'm gonna dig deeper into Shazam and Echo later tonight/tomorrow.

[AxleGreaser]

I feel like the evidence against you is more damning.

Sigh...
I'm done explaining myself.

I fucked up, this is going to be a town loss because people can't see beyond "oh hey she sheeped her guilty", i already explained myself, i wasnt paying attention to where the votes were and was annoyed that ppl didnt want to lynch fire.

Sorry i let you all down.

So people I wrote 3420

and YES it identifies somethign odd Sakura did.

Having a guilty track, on fire, Sakura let up near the start of the day.
Then late in the day having tried to get fire lynched every other way all day, like towny should.

Eventually Sakura claimed a track.

and yes some stuff doesnt line up, with all a towny could have done. As sakura had not put together that the track was a hard counter to a town BP claim.

NOTE SCUM do in fact think about heir fake claims.
So
no matter whether you scumread or town read sakura, you have toa ccept the fact that Sakura never thought about nor made anything of that the track hard countered the fire BP claim.

I would like people to actually explain their sakura scum read.

I have explained what I saw when I looked at meta. ScumSakura in another game did not play anywhere near as well as Sakura is claimed to have played in this game.

People reject my frogger read, because he was flapping about. Getting drunk is not that hard to do. The other scum had weird interactions with him D1.

I would like people to actually explain their sakura scum read.
and why sakura meta doesn't matter but Fro99er meta does.

[Spiffeh]

UGGGGGHHHHHHH IDDDDDKKKKKKKK

[AxleGreaser]

I'm sorry if I'm wrong Sakura but I think there's too much stacked against you.

@Axle

There's also the setup speculation argument which is like 100x less reliable but is still there. I don't see the town having a roleblocker AND a BPV. What exactly would a 1-shot roleblock do? Sure, it would block a kill, which is a confirmed guilty unless scum idles. Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself. Then she gets another guilty by tracking someone. Her role alone would be capable of stopping two night kills and getting two guilties, which seems WAY too overpowered with a scumteam of four when we already have a gunsmith and a two-shot vig. Also three confirmed towns because of the masons. It doesn't make sense given the setup. She should be lynched today.

Please respond to this.

The questions looked rhetorical

Sakura role of 1 shot track + 1 shot Role block + BP. Has a theme, the role has survivability, which means they can delay using the tracks and use them more to snip. This adds a small amount of extra investigative power and rewards skillfull checks, as guessing not only who is scum but who will do the action is hard.
and without the BP thetrendency to fire them off D1&D2 would make them very ineffective.

What would 1 shot role block do?
Later in the game when the odds are better, it lets you hunt for the kill. There is the risk of flase psoitve if they snipe you the same day you RB someone, but roles having false positives is not unusual. Mods think its character building for townies to have to second guess their red checks.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanaced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I am not seeing that other people claim WAY over powered, when people seemed to think 5 man scum team was not required with the JOAT.

Your speculation about worst case JOAT actions, is a bit extreme as tracks are hard to get off and hit with. SO worrying about a track and an RB both hotting? If town do stuff like that they deserve an easy win, that is like worrying about what if the vig only hits scum.

[AxleGreaser]

@Fro99er

Spoiler: ooc

(yeah hes not in the game) (I may be as sorry as fuck about what I might be about to do.) Not actually sure where I am going with this and subsequent posts.

@Thread

read through D1 again, Imagine that you are the scum team (

EchoEcho Tn Aero/Fire

) +

d

r

un

k

fro

99e

r.

:

#

)

up to 165 is also worth the read, but after that

This post was interesting

actually, you know what. I have no reason to town read tn. Just felt like it in heat of the moment.

VOTE: tn5421[/v]

What the

fuck

?

Well Aero/fire has flipped scum, so we know he knew Fro99ers alignment, but why never make anything out of it?

If I had to asses the thread the existing scum in the thread are in little bit of trouble, the thread and Fro99er in particular is out of control.
Echo (conveniently) turns up and tries to go back to RQS?

Are 5 day deadlines generally more helpful for scum or for town? Discuss.

Echo make this push which is standard way to push people BUT never follows through.

VOTE: Aeronaut

So you're saying a town player should have lurked then? Is that what you're saying?

You're trying to paint me as scum without ascertaining the motivations. That's scummy.

Technically, it's called mudslinging. I'm accusing you of doing so.

Fro99er scum reads and votes Echo echo...

One thing of note is that Frogger is posting at higher volume than usual.

A...this is BULLSHIT I'll give you TONS AND TONS of links

B...why do you have meta on me??? Where have you played with me before???

VOTE: echo

but despite Fro99er being 'drunk' and volatile
he takes this rather well.

Frogger, I'm townreading you.

Shut the fuck up.

I also didnt like this.
It almost felt like it(the pissing off) might have been an intentional play into his own self aware meta.

VOTE: tn5421

I like this more.

I'm done pissing off everyone. Echo is right. I need to stop.

One of the things Echo Echo achieved early game
I described quite some time ago. (I described it for this reason BTW) (If Echo echo was scum I posited he would drive over the thread like bulldozer)

249
Does not fit your buddying theory.

Drive over the thread like bulldozer seems a more apt description

and what better way to do that than by making short noisy pushes on your buddies who you know wont overreact, or hold a grudge, or lingering doubts.

[AxleGreaser]

VOTE: Echo echo

[AxleGreaser]

Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself.

As you are scum reading the role when it outed itself with a check that lynched scum, you cannot possibly be seriously claiming "she is basically conf town after outing herself."

The role if it had been claimed with non informative checks and role blocks, would look quite sus and NOTHING like confirmed town. The JOAT did not add another confirmed town role to the setup.

it is mistake to think scum waste a kill when they hit and BP. Typically all that does is move the game from LYLO to MYLO.

In this case it is a very interesting part of the setup.


IF (but only if) scum make a doctor save, then town loses a lynch to eventually lynch that guy they could have shot. (hence we are at MYLO)

Spoiler: Why thats interesting from mods perpsective

If scum are good enough to make save. Kinda not that hard to guess which scum might get vig shot and if your scum team has multiple people on the vig shot block bo hoo to you. (that your own damn fault)
Anyway that means, what town has i the added ability to take out unreadables (& people who dont actually play). That makes for 'better game".
But we are not done. Even though there are so many mod confirmed townies. If amoungst all that competition to get killed the JOAT can also play towny enough to eventually get shot, then they can earn the mislynch back.
The preponderance of mod confirmable townies, and their tendency to get outed. Means the JOST is likely to survibe long ebnough to snipe with with their track and RB. HOWEVER problem is they dont know that. So giving the JOAT passive BP synergises quite well with role that is best holding its shots for few days.
The Vig tends to rule the game early with the extra kills, and the JOAT comes into their own late game.
Dont know what powers cum,have or exactly where balanced is,.

But a scum Doc and scum role cop, seem useful to scum. (docs more or

less

confirmed. )

scum actually cant SHOOT Sakura at the moment as a zero nk night WILL buy us an extra lynch.

OMG you might think that makes Sakura scummy....

REMEMBER THIS POST

Wait a second, this is MyLo, can anyone tell me why aren't we voting for No Lynch? the worst that can happen is that scum pops my BP and we end up in the same situation again.

That was towny thing to do back then.
It seems unlikely for scum Sakura to suggest that give the logic above.

[AxleGreaser]

AT least

one of (Echo Shazam Sakura is scum)

votecount 7.2

Sakura Hana (2) - Echo Echo, Shazam

Shazam (1) - Sakura Hana

Not voting (3) - AxleGreaser, Spiffeh, DrippingGoofball

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is October 3, 10:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2015-10-03 10:00:00).

Clearly i am betting it is echo echo.

VOTE: Echo echo

Also I am going to play little Cluedo.

I accuse Echo echo of murdering Bearbert and Davsto with a fake VCA.

I claim the VCA is not science and is not something Echo Echo actually believes.

The Fro99er read is fabricated. Its is either fabricated on a scumbuddy under lots of pressure from me.
or its faked on towny he wants to take to end game, as either the patsy or the puppet.

Spoiler: distinction to my claims about DGB VCA

BTW that is similar but different the DGB VCA.

DGB has a wiki page and long history of using the scum puter. (note he doesnt always use it so as scum he can use it when it gives the answers he wants.)

He said he was lazy this game. Indeed I claim he was scum and lazy because he knew what answers he wanted so anything that gave the right answers and looked techy, complex and blingy enough would do.

The shortcuts he took were BAD. (Fromt he wiki:

the base assumption is that any significant wagon has some, but not all, of the scum on it, and that the scum are at least

randomly distributed

.

) It then also embedded int he math formulas that he DID not use.

When I pointed them out to a person claimed to be town and lazy.
HE did NOT go whoops and correct them.

instead he dodged

.
He claimed the wagons have more than average scum ,when that is exactly NOT what his scumputer is based on.
Worse. It was only one wagon he had to many scum on due to failing to follow his own methodology. Thus biasing the results.
Why lie?

Now i write computer code and eat algorithms like that one(but actually complex) for breakfast and have done it for living.
So I can see it is obvious bollocks.
The towny alternative is DGB is signficantly less competent than I think he is or he is scum making it up and hoping no one will notice.

The distinction about that and the Echo echo read
As echo echo algorithm keeps changing, from one VCA to the next, and hes is just waving around doing it for science. What I smell is total fakery of the VCA or any true interest or belief in it.
If Echo echo flips town, I will continue to believe he faked the VCA. I will probably believe that even if he continues with the alt and makes it the alts meta. At best
As scum it is convenient way to distance yourself from the blame.
As town its an easy way to scum read people without giving away your tells.
I believe Echo echo is scum and faked his VCA.

[Spiffeh]

I'm always so indecisive.

You're not gonna get me to lynch Fro99er today. Probably not gonna get me to lynch Echo today.

You think Shazam is town?

[AxleGreaser]

I have explained what I saw when I looked at meta. ScumSakura in another game did not play anywhere near as well as Sakura is claimed to have played in this game.

People reject my frogger read, because he was flapping about. Getting drunk is not that hard to do. The other scum had weird interactions with him D1.

The weird interactions are described in 3591

but I have realised I did not list what differences I saw.
Non broken ISO of that Sakura Scum game

ISO of this game

In the other game scum Sakura Waffles fro 6 posts.

In this game Sakura is asking questions and progressing the game basically all the time in every post.
When the game was getting bogged Sakura jumped on the IaI wagon to make stuff happen, at that time there was no real case, it could go badly for anyone that did that, it is not low risk play (not highly risky but not safe) (so when the play around there isnt smelly of scum making bad push then doing that is towny> (See Frog voting Tn, with a hey whatever attitude, for counter example, of stuff that could look towny but if you do it wrong looks scummy))

basically there is much less focused inquiry. 114 119
166 States where Skauras head is up to with the read.(transparent)

I liked 269 a lot. 269 and yes that observation that those interactions were weird still irks me and is part of my current read.

Indeed just lots of the ISO from this game i like and is quite unlike that scum game.

[Shazam]

I'm sorry if I'm wrong Sakura but I think there's too much stacked against you.

@Axle

There's also the setup speculation argument which is like 100x less reliable but is still there. I don't see the town having a roleblocker AND a BPV. What exactly would a 1-shot roleblock do? Sure, it would block a kill, which is a confirmed guilty unless scum idles. Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself. Then she gets another guilty by tracking someone. Her role alone would be capable of stopping two night kills and getting two guilties, which seems WAY too overpowered with a scumteam of four when we already have a gunsmith and a two-shot vig. Also three confirmed towns because of the masons. It doesn't make sense given the setup. She should be lynched today.

Please respond to this.

The questions looked rhetorical

Sakura role of 1 shot track + 1 shot Role block + BP. Has a theme, the role has survivability, which means they can delay using the tracks and use them more to snip. This adds a small amount of extra investigative power and rewards skillfull checks, as guessing not only who is scum but who will do the action is hard.
and without the BP thetrendency to fire them off D1&D2 would make them very ineffective.

What would 1 shot role block do?
Later in the game when the odds are better, it lets you hunt for the kill. There is the risk of flase psoitve if they snipe you the same day you RB someone, but roles having false positives is not unusual. Mods think its character building for townies to have to second guess their red checks.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanaced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I am not seeing that other people claim WAY over powered, when people seemed to think 5 man scum team was not required with the JOAT.

Your speculation about worst case JOAT actions, is a bit extreme as tracks are hard to get off and hit with. SO worrying about a track and an RB both hotting? If town do stuff like that they deserve an easy win, that is like worrying about what if the vig only hits scum.

OK, I'll bite because I don't completely understand. You're saying 4 scum seems underpowered to you, but you find a JOAT, 3 Masons, a Vig, a Flower Vendor, and a Gunsmith on the other side even possibly balanced? I like how you're voting and would vote with you if it came to it, but I think you're wrong on Sakura at this point. I still don't see her "mistake" as coming from town, and I don't know how Spiffeh can be confused because he convinced me of this and I'm not confused.

[AxleGreaser]

I'm always so indecisive.

You're not gonna get me to lynch Fro99er today. Probably not gonna get me to lynch Echo today.

You think Shazam is town?

Seems we are at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PgAKzmWmuk

with me you and the scum....
I claim

ugly

.

moving right along.

Yeah, I dont like the popping in and out, that smells bad and possibly expedience driven.

I am hard pressed to know how I scum read him so hard except that i was looking for a group of three playing out a game where MYLO was yesterday
That meant them (Frog Davsto Shazam) driving for the mislynch on Bearbert made sense.
But I dislike two of them doing that, when its further to victory. But you dont believe in Frog scum.

When i reread, the game fresh I refound my shazam town read.
I will go through it now, but suspend my reads on Frog or Echo while i do as best i can.
Its shortish I might even do them all or lots of the early ones.

57 pushed you. The question give you adequate space to look towny. They are genuine inquiries.
115 is him finding out about the confusion over who b&c were addressed to.
431 is him pinging off stuff that made me intially concerned about Fro99er. That response from Fro99er seemed disproportionate but it took me while to confirm to myself he was not actually still wound up over our previous game and hence jumping at shadows when reading me.

448 Also looks like town failing to grasp how much what they knew their words meant is not necessarily what other people think their words mean or are about.
595 reads like more disagreement and misunderstanding and i dont discern a scum motive.

Down to 681 I see him explaining his stance on Fro99er. I disagree and think that Fro99er regardless of alignment would know hos case was crap and exaggerated. I read then, and even more strongly later, that all the caps lock stuff from 329 was performance art to exaggerate point.
he was either town fishing for someone to follow derpy wagon, or wanting to park somewhere or scum.
it is too inconsistent with him thinking back here he has handle on how to read me, where does the ONMG paranoia come from?

You don't read axle based off his opening post. You read axle based off his reactions to everyone else. He's got a pretty clear scumhunting/non-scumhunting meta, IMO.

That is about the end of D1. When the game was there I felt pretty town about Shazam. Rereading it knowing some flips I reach the same or better as conclusion.
As the game went on I had POE'd too many people and thats when i went back to check Frogger netter as time went on Shazam got swept up in that too.

I would struggle now to find how I decided Shazam was in my scum pool.
I think at least in part i got sucked in by the drug of VCA.

[AxleGreaser]

I'm sorry if I'm wrong Sakura but I think there's too much stacked against you.

@Axle

There's also the setup speculation argument which is like 100x less reliable but is still there. I don't see the town having a roleblocker AND a BPV. What exactly would a 1-shot roleblock do? Sure, it would block a kill, which is a confirmed guilty unless scum idles. Then scum waste their kill again trying to kill her because she is basically conf town after outing herself. Then she gets another guilty by tracking someone. Her role alone would be capable of stopping two night kills and getting two guilties, which seems WAY too overpowered with a scumteam of four when we already have a gunsmith and a two-shot vig. Also three confirmed towns because of the masons. It doesn't make sense given the setup. She should be lynched today.

Please respond to this.

The questions looked rhetorical

Sakura role of 1 shot track + 1 shot Role block + BP. Has a theme, the role has survivability, which means they can delay using the tracks and use them more to snip. This adds a small amount of extra investigative power and rewards skillfull checks, as guessing not only who is scum but who will do the action is hard.
and without the BP thetrendency to fire them off D1&D2 would make them very ineffective.

What would 1 shot role block do?
Later in the game when the odds are better, it lets you hunt for the kill. There is the risk of flase psoitve if they snipe you the same day you RB someone, but roles having false positives is not unusual. Mods think its character building for townies to have to second guess their red checks.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanaced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I am not seeing that other people claim WAY over powered, when people seemed to think 5 man scum team was not required with the JOAT.

Your speculation about worst case JOAT actions, is a bit extreme as tracks are hard to get off and hit with. SO worrying about a track and an RB both hotting? If town do stuff like that they deserve an easy win, that is like worrying about what if the vig only hits scum.

OK, I'll bite because I don't completely understand. You're saying 4 scum seems underpowered to you, but you find a JOAT, 3 Masons, a Vig, a Flower Vendor, and a Gunsmith on the other side even possibly balanced? I like how you're voting and would vote with you if it came to it, but I think you're wrong on Sakura at this point. I still don't see her "mistake" as coming from town, and I don't know how Spiffeh can be confused because he convinced me of this and I'm not confused.

Yeah I dont find the Joat adds much power.
It is role that is hard to claim convincingly.

As there was not a 5 man scum team. my idea of balanced has been definitively shown to be at variance with the balance teams.
Yes coming back to a 4 man scum team did raise red flags for me about the roles.
To be consistent with my earlier estimation of balance, it would be some of the flipped roles that couldn't be in the game.

Once I accept i am wrong enough about what is considered balanced, how much more unlikely is it that they also considered adding the JOAT as well to be balanced?

I am not keen on winning or losing the game based on anything I think about setup.
Playing as if there could be 5 scum was precautionary.

This part is me working out what other opinions of balance must be.

In terms of balance I thought 5 scum was plausible, so by definition 4 scum seems underpowered to me. HOWEVER pretty much no one bought into 5 scum for sec. So the current setup with the JOAT does not scream imbalanced or the 5 man team would have looked more plausible.

So I also have other peoples estimates of what is balanced.

TLDR: Is my head a confused mess about balance issues. You betcha.